C everybody, good morning. Welcome to the Wilson Center. I am jane harman the president and ceo. Im a recovering politician, happy to be a recovering politician but its not an easy job. This place leverages Woodrow Wilson from president s to passions which were scholarship and policy and thats the intersection of the book we are going to talk about today. Its my pleasure to introduce a friend of many of ours,. I will explain why it is called him a and that is because there is the movie, has everyone seen the movie they open john movie . Dan and i sat next to each other recently a failed and john movie which is great. I recommend it. Dance that i want to come to the Wilson Center and talk about the book so is here and he will talk about this book. Has Everybody Knows he has to cheat sheet. You all memorized it with a nice picture of him. Hes the ceo of centrist energy corp. Hes a former deputy secretary and many of us worked with him in that job at the department of energy. Worked at the National Security council. He spent 10 years with brands across one of the elegant beautiful brilliant best people who have ever served in government in my lifetime and he is here to describe his book and to be interviewed by Robert Litwak. Hes the Senior Vice President s at the Wilson Center. He has been here for a number of decades. He worked as the National Security council as well a resident expert and he basically oversees the programs here and he was ponemans roommate. Where was that . Harvard. Youve all heard of harvard . I am here to learn just like the rest of you and this is what we do here. We are the Woodrow WilsonInternational Center for scholars. We are the living memorial to our only ph. D. President as you know. How many of you knew that . Most of you . Thats why we have such smart people here and we celebrate the connection between scholarship and policy which is why is here today and i think i just introduced him and now hes going to be embarrassed. I think its up to you dan to describe and do a few slides about this very important new addition to the literature as it says combating Nuclear Terror and Climate Change. Welcome Daniel Poneman. [applause] thank you jane. The rocket man movie did ignite two of my great passions which are talking to smart people like jane harman and rock n roll so was a great pleasure. I have to acknowledge jane and your incredible record of Public Service in the congress and its always the pleasure to work with you and now on this critically important time in the place which is where great dots on policy unite in practical efforts to confront our greatest challenges and i have to add a personal note. I guess i have known Robert Litwak for 40 years or so. Not only were we roommate at harvard we were at london and the International Force for human studies and when he was working with me at the National Security council rob played a Critical Role in getting the Nuclear Nonproliferation treaty extended in 1995 without which we would not have the book that we are about to describe in terms of stopping it. Because i do have a day job which is not my scholarly job i am compelled to put up, im not compelled to read out loud but all this about forwardlooking statements. The real question presented is why are we all here today and what are the greatest challenges facing humanity . It could be in another lifetime but this is the challenge folks. There are a lot of projections with a lot of projections show a doubling of electricity consumption by midcentury mainly in the asian and african regions by the doubling of requirement for electricity but if you look at any of the studies we have 2d carbonite the planet and the place to start is to let the city sector and if we have a prayer of getting to the twodegree centigrade climate target for temperature rise we have to basically d carbonite the electrical sector by 2050. How do you increase consumption by 100 and reduce emissions by 100 of their many ways to get there. Lets move ahead. Just to show this is not some theoretical issue. One small case in point not so small actually look at the coral reefs on the planet. Two degrees centigrade which is the punitive climate target in paris we will lose according to the panel on Climate Change 99 , 99 of the worlds coral reef by 2015. Look what happened in the course of a few months in american samoa. This is happening all over the planet. There episodes in the Great Barrier reef and a swath of the Great Barrier reef the distance from the state of maine to washington d. C. The worlds coral cannot recover at the paste these episodes are not happening so this is a real dominant and present danger. How did he get there . If you took all of the 187 places that formed the back of the paris climate agreement and assume that all of those pledges to build all that solar and wind power and all that grief for station and all those measures and implement up 100 of their measures which governments dont do and they are already off track you dont get to two degrees centigrade and we might reduce it by four to five degrees depending on what study you are looking at. The only way to close the gap that i have seen is by significant expansion of Nuclear Power. Dont ask me, this is what youll find in the analogies of the International Energy agency and observers. We are probably going to overshoot the twodegree target and we will have to go to negative missions. Lets go to carryon. Fortunately there has been tremendous progress made in the area for nobles and my former colleague david clauss is here. At the department of energy we are proud in the 2009 and 2010 period to put out 30 billion of Loan Guarantees which launched the Solar Photovoltaic in this country with zero photovoltaic and that the time the u. S. Department of energy supported for the first time in the commercial markets took over. Solar was great and its had remarkable market penetration. Its really great when the sun is shining and when its a hot summer day its not so good in the dead of winter when the sun doesnt shine or at nighttime so how we deal with this challenge . What youll see is we have reduced cost dramatically for solar. The challenge is with intermittent c. If you keep getting more electricity at a time when you dont need more because you have already maxed out you are just paying a lot of extra costs for energy you cannot use. How many ice cream cones can you use in a desert . Lets go through this quickly. The more youve got you cant use unless you have some why it storing it in storage could help u. N. Solar space especially over the course of a couple of hours and not so good over couple of weeks over a couple of months are overseas. The challenge is in this is not just my view this as is the view of the people who have thought deeply about Solar Photovoltaic is how the balance those intermittent sources of supply which nuclear can supply. Where are we on nuclear . Its a mixed picture. On the one hand we have seen a slow expansion of Nuclear Power around the world. Their reactors being built around the world today. Basically it doubles the fleet but it at least its moving in a positive direction. Slowly you have reactors coming back on line we have a lot of exciting Design Capabilities for new Generation Technology that are smaller, faster Better Business models that can deploy on the serial basis so a lot of good things that are happening. In the United States we are still the global leader. We have 98 reactors here and we have 94 operating. We did have the dramatic experience of westinghouse going through bankruptcy and is now emerged through tank reps and they are the construction of two units in georgia, to probably the last thirdgeneration Nuclear Reactors. Its over budget and its behind schedule and the interesting thing and jayna spent so much time in congress we are still seeing a lot of white partisan support on this issue in particular. Two bills supporting Nuclear Energy that congress signed into law last session. On the other hand everyone here knows the impact remains profound. Basically europe took a very dim view of it in germany is getting out of nuclear and nuclear is deeply challenged. Spain and belgium and some of the other countries in the uks been trying to get a reaction to build up there as well and of course in the United States we have been losing well operating reactors for a number of anomalies will talk about in the q a so down from 148 reactors in their many more at risk. This is something not a lot of people understand that the United States has lost its global leadership. We were basically the elf and the omega. The United States invaded this technology and it was invented in the context of world war ii in the Manhattan Project and continued through the Atomic Energy commission. United states dominated the world in reactor construction dominate the world and Nuclear Fuels which brought us the Nuclear Weapons portion and the enrichment of uranium which is a process that can raise the concentration of the isotopes during 235 from a state of 0. 7 and when uranium is mined out of the ground up to 45 and that would be good enough to support a Nuclear Reactor to generate electricity but the same process can take you up to 90 at which point you can make Nuclear Weapons. This is what the situation was in 1985. 27 million with the measurement of and rusher with 3000 separate work units in terms of capacity and france sort of in the middle. Whats happened since 1985 in terms of the west compared to competitors . Lets take a look. Oh dear. Thats not russia unless the United States is down to zero. We have zero indigenous reduction of enriched uranium in the United States. The only u. S. Production is under Foreign Ownership in those of the hashmark capacities you seen the center of the slide. Theres another way to look at this slide and here you see it. Unless you see in richmond and you probably read about the uranium mining cases that are now in under consideration before the administration you see whats happened in the mining of natural uranium as well. Its a story in decline. Whats going on on the reactor front . You have to realize when you export a Nuclear Reactor you are talking about a 100 years strategic relationship between the planning of the construction the operation and ultimately the decommissioning and decontamination is a relationship which has many aspects which goes beyond the four corners of the project. Most countries that are in the Nuclear Export game view it in this way. The United States used to be the dominant player when he came to nuclear jars. Hows it going now . The United States did finish for units in china. All of the other reactors around the world the United States is not the prime contract and so the influence that goes along with that is something that we are losing. If you look at the order books to russia order book for Nuclear Power plants is roughly 130 billion in the u. S. Is zero. This is where we come back to the proliferation question. Theres a possibility in the 1970s the end present it in a safe facing a world in which 25 patients may have been a clear weapon. If Nuclear Energy is a factor in the world and we have reactors around the world one thing we can all agree on his behalf to have the strongest nonproliferation standards possible and the United States has the strongest standards possible so those other spies are allowed to continue in terms of the trends they apply the falling out of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle falling out of the Nuclear Reactor export business we are going to have a global influence we need to continue to implement strong nonproliferation standards standards. What do we do about that . Historically the United States has played a leading role in the greatest Nuclear Probe for a challenge before us. Lets take a look historically the world the United States is played within the country. India and pakistan although they have tried hard for a long time to stop both of them from Going Nuclear day attended publicly in 1998 and still very important to get them restrained but that was one that basically got away from us. And the other hand your member from the bush 41 administration some very diligent diplomatic efforts resulting in the concern that many people had of more Nuclear Weapons states emerging from the soviet union winding up with only one, russia having a Nuclear Weapon and the other ukraine and kazakhstan in belorussia giving up stairs and it was in schmidt on that. South africa and taiwan we were able to convince them not to go nuclear. Argentina brazil and sought the responsibility of United States to pursue its nonproliferation policy was such a metal and for example i was in the office of tony lake the National Security advisers to president clinton when the foreign minister of argentina at the time may he rest in peace that im presiding from the movement. So the United States played a Critical Role in many of these countries as well. Who else . Libya and iraq. They played Critical Roles in the denuclearization and charlies hear who played a Critical Role and thank you for your Service Charlie and and your personal leadership is critical and of course we have the remaining issues before us of iran and north korea. It comes back to the fuel supply because the reactors themselves are less of a proliferation threat than a fuel going into the reactor in the plutonium coming out of the reactor and going back. Verizon howardson the fundamental tenet of the policy that we should be reliable suppliers of nuclear fuel to put on the supply of those fuels strong safeguards and protections. The question is can we get that leadership that we frankly lost . There are some exciting developments. There is a set of whole new design so for generation reactors which have intrinsically safe fuel forms and the tara power reaction which before you can use fuel from existing reactor which creates a indefinite source of fuel and has the benefit of running down the used fuel that creates longterm radiation so its sort of a doubly virtuous approach. Theres a lot of interesting work going on in terms of space propulsion through Nuclear Power and ultimately the dream of many people is fusion which would be potentially they always say 30 years from now away to get massive amounts of carbon free electricity. Lets carry on. Im going to and im unspecific topic tickets at the place where you think the United States can really get his groove back socalled high acetate lowing urged uranium. I spoke about three to 5 in the uranium 235 isotope industry need for commercial Nuclear Power plants. We are familiar with that. On the far righthand side highlyenriched uranium 90 purity is what you need for your reactor fuel but theres a new interest in high assay of lowenriched uranium between five and 19. 75 . One way to look at us like this. High assay would be your vintage port in between. How do we deal with this challenge . We have a classic chicken and egg situation. Its very hard to him told the plan if you dont know what the demand is and its hard to finance a plan if you dont have a guaranteed cash flow. On the other hand the reactor people say its a hard sell. At the great new reactor but i wish i knew how to feel it so how do we break this conundrum . Is a lawyer might say youve done this before and it goes back to the history of the nuclear navy. Without a great Government Investment in the support of president eisenhower implemented through the legendary work we would not have the whitewater reactors. We made t