Expected but still noteworthy in terms of timing right for the g. 20. Many feared as a signal that beijing still have critical leverage and perhaps he was signaling to President Trump that maybe he should modulate the trade for accordingly if he wants to see progress in the negotiations. And obviously there was President Trumps recent visit to tokyo and the desire to meet. Hes now met with him five tim times. President trump five times and putin warns. Then we obviously have the g. 20 later this weekend of this muchanticipated. Just last friday the administrations added five embassies and further restricting the access to technology and further complicating efforts to reach a trade deal with high tensions between the u. S. And china so all of this going on and we couldnt ask for a more distant this panel to discuss these and other issues. No one on the panel really needs an introduction so i will make them very brief so we can start the discussion. We have on my left ambassador campbell, chairman and ceo of the asia group and chairman of the center for the new american security, former assistant secretary of state for the east asiapacific affairs where he is widely accredited as a key architect. We have left of him professor of International Relations at the university and prior to working at smu he worked as assistant Professor Hong Kong University science and technology and was a fellow at brookings, business professor. Left of him doctor christianson of International Affairs and director of china and the World Program at Columbia University iran derived from Princeton University and served as a Deputy Assistant secretary of state for east asia affairs. Then w we get the professor of f science at the university and the center of japan studies. I think im going to get each panelist opening remarks for five minutes or so to set the scene for us. You summarized very nicely recent events and they want to pay respects to our friend victor and congratulations for ten years of a program here will have the chance to commemorate e it later and we are grateful for the opportunities together a. Its often said in almost every Opening Statement about Global Politics that we are living in a strategic period you could say anytime the last 20, 25 years but i think if you look at the situation today, there is more strategic uncertainty around primarily the American World and than we have seen even perhaps near the close of the cold war and i would suggest a good way to think about it as three members, 704320. If you think about the last 70 years its been largely about a substantial american endeavor to create and support a Global Operating system that is an intricate web of strategic commitments, alliance, formulations, support for the peaceful resolution of disputes, a framework that has been very good for asia. We have seen the longest period of prosperity and commitment on the part of the United States to the peace and stability and Remarkable Growth throughout the region as a whole. That period and framework has been very good for us and is coming under challenge as never before by two nations in particular and the first is perhaps understandable. China would like to adapt parts of the framework. Parts have been good for china experts said china would like to adapt and adjust towards fulfilling and supporting the arrival of the global stage. Thats perhaps not as big of a surprise. I think the bigger surprise is the other main challenge that has come from the United States. Many questions across the political spectrum of President Trump and his team but also on american politics and questions about the deployed american engagement, over ambitious american pursuits, trade etc. I encourage all of you to take a look at this poll that just came out from the center for American Progress that makes very clear that this once very robust group of american supporters from the socalled liberal International Order has dwindled very substantially and i think what we all have to recognize is some of those believe that some of us share our interest each particularly the United States as never before and even if President Trump is no longer president i think his biggest contribution will be to raise questions about americas role in the world so that is extraordinarily important and i think we are only at the beginning stages of thinking about what comes next and those who would suggest an election coultobe about resurrecting thes quo i dont think they are paying attention to whats going on inside the United States and the second number, 40, some of this i see around the room was in beijing couple of weeks ago for the China Development forum and at the same time chinese friends invited for the last time the architects of engagement between the United States and china to celebrate the 40 yea 40 year period of ent in the United States and china. Is that the Us China Relationship requires deeper questioning. That doesnt mean some horrible new war but what is at the top of the list. And simultaneously at the same time, there is a recognition that has been deeply engaged. Rarely has a great power gone on this kind of detour. Remarkable loss of money, lif money, life, prestige for almost nothing. As a quick negative it has undermined in a broader recognition for what we have invested in this time any one of those developments with execution of American Foreign policy the fact that they are happening together suggest as we think about the Korean Peninsula issues questioning of American Foreignpolicy pursuits perhaps is never been greater. At the end of the cold war i knew where they generally would come down. I find myself going into meetings having no idea where people are likely to come out on certain issues. And with those full tribal patterns with the strategic debates. Before we go forward we need to recognize the level of uncertainty that has never been greater. And to set the stage for us with the policies for china the opportunities toward china. Talking about my classmate at Columbia University, he is a role model for a young professional because he shows you can be incredibly successful and a leader without being bossy without being aggressive. He really is a great example for what you can achieve. Who asked me about alliances and china the fact that we are in a strategic competition and people forget about with those alliances and partnerships that there is no other realm the United States has a bigger need for a potential rival than alliances and partnerships. And those Security Policies are played out in a way of northeast and Southeast Asia to reduce our ability to draw upon our allies making it easier with those coalitions and those relationships. That trade war is painful for those closest partners and i was in singapore a few days ago and to drop precipitously. Also in malaysia to be very concerned and china into t eight. There is a lot of confusion and concern. And also that narrative of the Economic Policy pretty much all of that policy is predatory. Nobody is more concerned of those negative aspects than chinas neighbors. So for example in malaysia they were concerned there was corruption with those previoUs Governments to express publicly but at the same time to get infrastructure and then one of the United States says they are not criticizing beijing. Its very good to have diplomacy you allow yourself to be preyed upon. And to see that opportunity to build infrastructure to worry about the negative but what what is only starting to happen they sustain that narrative in a way that builds those relationships. And with northeast asia and japan in the trade war and japan has moved into that gap. Investment in china has gone up. And lastly with north korea and iran the United States has to accept what president xi was trying to drive home there is no way to buy maximum pressure that to some degree with chinese buying they are the partner both. That will complicate Us China Relationship. To place that maximum economic pressure on iran and we dont have that much additional room to sanction ourselves. And then with the Chinese Government to pressure because we have t8 which is a multifaceted issue but the one that really got peoples attention was just a few days ago is one that seemed different then not allowing t8 into the infrastructure. To keep that from developing into the hightech area and that seems much more like a cold war position. That is my basic take on that the next is between Economic Policy to turn into a basic concert i really do believe we are more powerful than china. I say they are plenty powerful enough that we dont dismiss their power but i think the United States is much more powerful than one of the reasons is our alliance and partnership and we cannot forget those direct policies have an impact in ways that work in the interest on against the interest of the strategic competitor. How do you change the landscape of the region collects and perhaps no longer so dependable. And the regional dynamics. When i got out of grade school the early nineties people use to talk about orderly society, global migration. And so the nationstates are coming back very strong. And with that issue with dad ability everywhere but basically us and china competition has begun and in that form of coercion. In that exclusivity question the pressure has been felt by many countries in the region and also with this particular dilemma. And in 2011. Access to the strategic dilemma. And to join aa id and with that commemoration and whether or not in 2016 and then with the Indo Pacific Region that will only increase down the road. But first of all it is a possibility. There may be some new images and with the flyby country or maybe even less but last year there was a cool encounter. So clearly. In that competition with washington. Lets move away from chip loan tried and talk about japan. South korea relationship obviously still currently one of the most troubled and without cooperation then hampering into china. Lets talk about that relationship. So we can have these areas. And it is a political problem. It is this area of korea and japan and with that understanding. In to be preoccupied but of course but basically there is that understanding. But it is a compromise. The second is through coordination. And it isnt that much easier. But did you say we cannot have that. And then we could some coordination. And with those two economies. So with all of these differences at bangkok but and the court and without coordination from 1985. But why because some people for example in the contribution but then only to focus on the package. So with the leadership and with these tremendous areas that it is strong. Okay. That it is strong. Okay. That it is strong. Okay. Can i ask about President Trump and the Foreign Policy. And the region is seeing him. How do they think about iran last week rex does that reversal and then to undermine the credibility and with these threats. So how is the foreignpolicy cracks and then with the uncertainty just adding more. And then to make judgments on these issues. And to make assessments but my assumption would be and to be somewhat transactional. And that with those relationships more generally to make him look strong. And to feel relatively confident and then to look at those trade issues with china but they are very substantial with japan, real threats. And has not focused at all on india with the Trump Administration has done and was very worrisome. And then always to be anxious and then if anybody uses the wrong lens to say the president is not prepared to follow through. That could be dangerous leading the region into an unpredictable phase ahead. But i talked to some japanese friends who feel they understand the president has a Good Relationship and i wish them good luck. [laughter] but if this goes on very much longer they try to develop that nuance strategy developing that independent capability and despite what any country is saying up front they are trying really hard and over the longer term the assessment whether they are the strongest and unquestioned leader are in the midst of a hurtling duck line i can find people across that spectrum. China does not need to be an equal of the United States that there is too much emphasis in my fielder in the political world that they have to be the same height as to pose a challenge but they are much weaker actors and that was certainly more powerful than any of those so we do have certain advantages over china but i think we could harm those relationships by treating those bilateral relationships i was in south korea couple weeks ago and i also heard there that this choice of some elements they dont want to make that choice they dont need to from our perspective and by asking that we weaken our relations the biggest most direct impact the question about iraq. I dont know what they try to resolve that there is a lot of relief in the region but the second reason is they dont want more distractions and they dont want United States to be tied down. There is just incredible uncertainty. And then there is uncertainty in korea. President trump was popular and he seems like he is too soft and i worry about that because my expectation because people dont make those predictions. Mine is the jump administration will become disappointed with north korea. That i dont know what is left because in the progressive are disappointed. And they are already disappointed and now here we are with entitlement that is extremely important. It was a really bad idea but it is something that should just be normal. You say there is no way for our National Pressure for that buyin do they follow the visit quick. It will be building infrastructure. And something that is very dangerous i think the Trump Administration did a very good job to get kim jungun to the table but you had to do two things at once which are opposite and a lot of us were concerned there was going to be a conflict on the Korean Peninsula paragraph the same time they didnt care about the north korean regime. And its very difficult to do those two things at once and in different enough to with that Nuclear Weapon but to declare victory there is no maximum pressure. Because i dont think the president can create that combination of incredible threats in the future like he did. The Trump Administration is doing this right. So with the South China Sea and teeeight to talk about this consensus forming it is a multi prong strategy in china with the congressional backing so with the democratic president. So where is south korea cracks to be honest with all of these issues and to take action that it is not actively involved in with the South China Sea. Can they continually hedge . And with that uncertainty. About know about japan or taiwan but it is a concept of International Relations it could be a midpoint and issue based of political support. And those of their own priority. Many countries that experience it so many of these countries have very high in china and where to apply pressure. But south korea, i dont know. Just to deal with the dilemma. I will ask just one more question. If we talk about hong kong and taiwan. Does that have a negative impact do these galvanized . Ive said hong kong is a losing bet for beijing. And then across the political spectrum to say this has nothing to do with us. As people define sovereignty differently like the republic of china. And then it matters a lot. It is only a losing proposition for beijing. But if they handled it poorly then you cant trust beijing. But that dpp coalition in the early 2020. And in january emphasizing to systems that was never popular in taiwan. And with that extradition and then another reminder to people in taiwan and with the electoral community. So i think theyre probably in a better place. It would be hard to underestimate what substantial setback have been for president xi its very easy for us to underestimate the impact talk to friends inside the Us Government several of them have been surprised and the american role there and i would say that what we are seeing that president xi decision to go to north korea isnt so much by President Trump but as a way to usurp your stature you have to find someplace you can go. Thats only place you can go that would accommodate that is north korea. It is entirely likely with a very substantial set of setback set