From the National Archives this is an hour and a half. Good evening. Im david fairio the of the United States and im pleased to welcome you to the William G Mcgowan theater here at the national archive. Whether youre in our thetore or joining us on the youtube station. Very welcome to our cspan viewers. Tonights program, catch the wave weis presented in partnership with u. S. Scgz of former members of congress, and we thank them for their support and i notice that barbara, former president of the association is with us this evening, welcome back, its nice to see you. Before we hear from our panelists id like to tell you about two other programs that are coming up in this theater. On thursday november 1st at 7 00 p. M. , a panel of combat photographers who served in vietnam as part of the armys Photographic Office will discuss their role and their work. The program is presented in partnership with u. S. Army center for military history and i in observance of the 50th anniversary of the vietnam war. On november 7th at noon, author erratic dolen will be here to tell us about his new book, black flags, blew waters, the epic history of americas most notorious pirates. A book signing will follow the program. Check our website at archives ghost or sign up at the table outside the theert, and youll find information ability other National Archives prooms and activities. And another way to get more involved in the National Archives is to become a nebraska of the National Archives foundation. The Foundation Supports all of our education and outreach activities. Every two years elections create some turnover in the how much times, and the senate. Sometimes its slight, and other years its a wave. Whether the turnover is large or small incoming new members are eager to learn the ropes and get seats on prime committees, where the daytoday processes of legislation occur. The records committed by these committees, house, senate, and joint committees make up a large portion of these in our center for legislative archives. These give us incite into why laws are made and why they are written as they are. The balance of power may tip toward one party or the other, the National Archives maintains the mission to make assure the permanent records are preserved for future generationses to study. To start off our discussion of wave elections well turn to peter m who served as the chosef executive officer. The association celebrates bipartisan somebodyship, and reconnecting citizens with their representative governments. He plans and directs policies objective, and initiatives for the association, represents the fmc and communities in the community, and serves as its possessionperson to the public, the media and congress. He holds two bas from Pennsylvania State university. He attended law school at the Free University in berlin, and completed legal studies in washington, d. C. At Catholic University Columbus School of law. Ladies and gentlemen please cell welcome peter. Thank you david for this very kind intruxz, and thank you also for the many, many years of highly Productive Partnership we appreciate it. Along with david i want to welcome our audience here at the National Archives tonight as well as those watching us via the livestream and on cspan, that you can for joining us. On behalf of the former members of Congress Association i am thrilled to introduce our panel tonight, but before i do so, let me spend a couple minutes on the work of the association. Fmc is the premier nonprofit focused on the work of congress vosmg former members and current members of congress and our programs on a bipartisan basis. We offer to current members and Congressional Staff the opportunity to Work Together across the aisle on issues before the congress. We also have a number of International Legislation exchanges which current staff can participate on a bipartisan basis. And review it is our mission to bring the public together with current and former members of congress about b the pragmatic discussion of issues that affect us all. We also have Educational Programs that reconnect the next generation with the role of zenses police visit our wines to find out more about the orioles and our work. Our many panelists with the National Archives following the umbrella of engaging the public and exploring more indepth how our Representative Democracy functions. Certainly theres no more base v basic than voters expressing their opinion during the election. The midterms on november 6 will be no exception. We thoughted it would be interesting to examine what past wave elections have in common, and what the past might tell us about the future. To do so we havesomeled an outstanding panel of experts including a Bipartisan Group of former members of congress who were swept into office or out by one. I will now ask our panelists to join me on stage and hold your applause until ive introduced them all please. John ash born is a political consultant and chairman and ceo of the Hawthorne Group bringing to this panel decades of experience running campaigns, forecasts Election Outcomes o and commenting on todays politics. Animary was elected to the house as a republican from upstate new york in 2010, and served until 2013. Since february of 2017 shes the acting chair of the u. S. Consumer product safety commission. Jim blanchered served in the house of representatives at the democrat for michigan coming into congress, with the water gate class and serving from 19751983, following a service on capitol hill he served two terms of michigan, and 1993 president clinton appointed him u. S. Ambassador to canada. Tom davis represented Northern Virginia in the house until 1995 to 2008. In in addition to highlevel assignments chair on government reform he serves as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee from 19982002. Managerry was elected to congress as a democrat from pennsylvania in 1992, but was swept out of the office by the republican revolution of 1994. She now teaches at the university of pennsylvania in philadelphia, and remains politically active especially in womens rights issues. And to moderate our conversation were thrilled to have secured the services of David Hawkings, hes a journalist focused on politics. He has written excessively on this subject and is a regular commentator including fox news, cnn, npr and msnbc. Lets please welcome our panel with a round of applause. [applause] such comfy chairs. We were told to not move from our chair. So dont expect us to move. Hi, im David Hawkings welcome im glad youre here on this cold night. This is your time as much as it is our time so were going to make sure to reserve the last half hour of our time together for questions. I see one one mic, there are mics in the corners and if you you have questions please make use of the mics. Just asking your question from your seat will not do the audience any good. Thank you to the former members of congress and to the national archive. And to our panelist even before theyve said what theyre going to say, i thank them for carving out time for this. This was a f arranged a long time ago in american political life which is to say several weeks ago, and we even had our preconference. We did a panel and everybody gets together on a Conference Call and even that seems like a long time ago in our political life. Sadly our political life has been sort of rocked anew by another ruined of potential violence today, so thats a surprise that nobody none of us knew about. So when we when the former members and the archives got together to talk about voter discontent in a wave Election Year i think the supposition was it was going to be a wave Election Year. Im guessing from the folks in the green room theyre going to disagree with that. Not me. Not you, there you go. David so incredibly they represent the academic and consultancy view, and believe it or not i think peter might have mentioned this. Each of them was brought in by a wave election, and some were taken out by other wave elections. They represent all four of the most gnarly waves of the last half century. Which i guess i get do say because i get to cover three of the four. I wasnt around for water gate but i was around for the three. Lets get goog. So mr. Ashferred, set the stage. We want to talk about will there be a wave . Can we finally say will there be a wave, if so, why, and if not, why not . What is a wave anyway . And once the wave has crashed what good is it . [laughter] so thats my premises for my questions but you take it away. You take the lead and well want to hear from each of our four former members about their life. Thank you david and thank you to the former members and for the archives for having us. Governor, mr. Chairman, congresswoman, as the technician on this panel of distinguished elected officials, im the hired help, let me start with your middle question david, which is what is a wave . Im not sure how applicable in this presidency the lessons of history are. This president has rewritten history more than did. But, ballotpedia looked at 50 elections to your house cycle over the last 100 years, and said 20 percent of them ten elections out of 50 were waved. They defined it as the party out of power gaining more than 48 seats. Amy walters, with charlie cook with credit to mat cone, put it in more realistic terms that a wave election is 35 or more seats, and the party wins the competitive seats by a large margin. To give you historical context, and some of us were in the public arena back percent watergate years and even earlier david. I dont go quite back to the two great wave elections that were president ial waves. Fdr following hoover in 32, the republicans lost 97 seats, almost a quarter of the congress. And then harding after wilson in 20, the democrats lost 59 seats. The Midterm Elections now were talking about the democrats need 23 seats, will they get 2527, 30 . I dont think anyones predicting much more than that right now. Harding in 22 lost 76 seats, fdr, after the Court Packing attempt lost 70 seats in 38, and control. Obama in 10 lost 63 seats and control. Truman in 46 lost 54 in control. Clinton in 94 lost 94 seats and control. Hoover in 50 lost p3 seats. Fdr in the first year of world war ii, in 42, lost 50 seats. Lbj in 66 lost a48 cease, and ford in 674, his first midterm would have been the second of the nixon terms lost 48 seats. Were certainly not going to see a wave at that magnitude. If you look at the 13 nonpresident ial elections, going back over 52 years, i think this is the most important assist to come out of polling today. Any time the president s job approval has been below 50 , the party has lost an average of 40 seats. Lbj was sitting at 49 approval. He in 66 lost 47. Ford was ad 47, lost 48. Even the great Ronald Reagan was sitting at 43 approval lost 26 seats. Clinton was at 46 approval, in 9 had, lost 52 in control. Bush down to 39 by 2006, lost 30 seats, obama was at 45 and 10 lost 63 seats and control. And 42 four years later and lost 13 seats. Trump is probably sitting at 4344, 45 approval right now. But based on those last 13 nonpresident ial elections, the Republican Party should expect to lose by these numbers, an average of 40 seats, but i think well lose in the upper 20s, and youll see a blue wave in the house. All right that sets the stage. David before we get going time for four little history lessons and well take them in echronological order starting from the first. Before mr. Jim blanchards was our ambassador of canada, and twoterm to michigan. He was a beneficiary of the watergate waive. Of the four of you got swept into office by far the largest percentage of the vote. The landslide jim blanchered explain to us. I love waves and benefited from two and survived one. In 1974 in 1972 the night of the election where mcgovernor got wiped out by president nixon i knew the next time out would probably be a good time for democrats because it was going to be six years in the incumbent president s term, so i planned that Congressional Campaign that night at 4 00 in the morning. Because by the time i was 14 years old i wanted to serve in Congress Deal with world affairs, deal with government, and i was hooked on it as a child. And so i started planning my campaign, and so in those days you didnt declare right away because people would think it was a joke, i was too young. But at this time i was 30. So o, anyway, so i had it all figured out, it was going to be a good democrat year, six years in the nixon term. One problem happened, things got so bad, a year later, that all of a sudden everybody was talking about running, and i was worried about a big primer, it was going to be a primary but i was worried about it. And then gerald ford seat in a special election flipped to a democrat, the first democrat, Richard Vander vene was going to represent grand rapids, to fords seat because ford was president. And another one flipped in pennsylvania, and another in michigan. These were special elections so you couldnt hold anybody back. Everybody in michigan wanted to run, so i was trying to manage the primary field. I mounted the campaign,. Wasnt running against nixon i was running on the bread and burt issues. I could see the animus towards nixon was going to work in my favor, and yints want to go out and tell people i was running against nixon. People were so upset they didnt want to be reminded. People didnt like that he was supported nixon i knew it was going to help me but i was running on the precisely of bread and milk, and great lakes Water Quality and jobs. So i had this all figured out, i won the primary narrowly, i thought everyone is going to be great, and then nixon resigns i go oh, no. And then fords president for michigan, im going oh, no. He was popular, they were rallying around him. Hes a decent honorable man. The things got so bad they got better for the republicans. And then a couple few days later he names rockefeller as his running meat, a moderate republican. I still think im going to win but i dont know about that. So then a couple weeks later im driving along campaigning and the radio comes on and says and the late breaking news. President gerald ford has pardoned richard nixon. Im like yes, yes im going to win. And so it was a great campaign. I thought wed win by 53 or 54 . We got 59 to 40 so it was a 19. Point spread. And then we came here they were there were 76 new democrats came. 49 replaced republicans i think. 17 new republicans. So it was an incredible time and a moment. And i really did believe that i would win because of the timing. I didnt ebthink it would be that big of a wave. More 1980 when i was now a popular congressmen, my numbers dropped nine points and i didnt expect it. Because reagan had the wave in 1980 over jimmy carter and then i got elected governor in 82 and there was a big wave for democrat governors in 82 so ill stop now, but in 1980 i never sensed there was a wave for reagan. I didnt sense it in 74 i did sense it. But you just dont know sometimes until the morning after. David hold that thought because i do want to ask about your time coming into congress when polling was different than it was now. Im interested to hear you gut. Think about that. So now we fast forward to 1992, which was a wave because it was the year it was an antiincumbent year can as my memory and you didnt have that but you did have your gender working for you. And you finished in third place. You of the margins of victy. 1,773 votes. So congratulations on that. How did you what was your way of experience like . Im listening to you and thinking my story is so pathetic. David im glad we asked you to be here. [laughter] gl i have a ridiculous number of children, and you have to be prepared to lose before you win. I had a very Unusual Group of women, let me tell you come and say would you run . And i had a job and liked, and i still had to give up i was a reporter, that means you really have to give it up. And this was a republican district. I would like to say the most republican district represented by a democrat in the country time he stayed in for one election. And it never entered my mind that i would win. I never let myself even emotionally get down there on the train. I never thought i would win. I only went into Election Night with a concession speech. [laughter] it was truly so it was the year of the woman, which lasted for 365 days. So i went in with one wave and then went out with the with newt, and the contract on america. David yes. And so i did a driveby. That was it. Im awfully glad i did it. It was a very, very great experience. And it was i went in the wave, and i do see and well get to this. Im working with a lot of the women in suburban women who are running, and we pennsylvania had by women. I was the first woman elected in her own right in the state in the states history. Several women in the 30s had fold their husbands after their died. Its like 47th or something award to representation. Downballot which i would love to talk about b. But now we have from my area, we have four women who id say one i dont know but three are definitely going to win. Number from changing the what congress what congressional delegations. David wave or no wave theyre going to within. But i do think and i know this is not your question. But i dont think. David thats okay. I do think this is going to be a wave. Its not going to be as dramatir numbers . I definitely thing whats happened is the women have really said were going to get there. And we were talking about this earlier. I think what were seeing is this response. We dont know we didnt its that first how do you deal with this, the second wave, the second beesting is because so many of us have gone through what so many of us didnt know how to handle that power thing im old enough to know how crazy it is if you are in a situation like that. I think women are going to get out and vote in numbers that are going to be i hope, astonishing. And i think its going to count. But i dont know. David so youre oneterm did not overlap with the men to your right who came in on the nute newt wave, and you also defated the incumbent democrat, and when did you know youre coming to congress. A third of us lost. I defeated one of the girls that came in we most came from marginal districts. Women run or have traditionally run as wellas men do, when theres an open seat. David did you run with Clarence Thomas did that have anything to do with it . And. She just came to speak at penn, anita hill, no question about it. She really did energize, and i think in the same way kavanaugh is energizing, not helping the senate but definitely helping the house. The house seats. From my perspective it is helping the senate. David take it away mr. Davis. You were a political the four of you were the best known political allegation so when how did you know there was a wave and youre going to benefit from it. I knew there was a wave about 1 00 p. M. On Election Night. [laughter] true story. I was a political junky. My High School Years i was four years as a page in u. S. Senate. I went from high school to 610 00 every morning and worked in the senate. I got a full scholarship at amherst, then i worked in the nixon white house. Went to the university of virginia again was president of the unique republicans came to fairfax at the age of 29, then to chairman of the county board which is equivalent to county executive for mayor. And then a new district gets created in 92, but i was just elected to chairman of the board. It had he was a pretty neutral district, maybe a democrat lean. Pretty close district and so in 94, the this was my shots and i took it. I thought i had a good shot of winning until the reps nominated their oliver north. He ran a very competitive race against ron state would but in my district he got 29 of the volt. I had a more rural district. When oliver north came to fairfax you couldnt find me with a search warrant. I had to run my own race, and just put my independence i had help from john moore who had not imovd north. I had a record as head of the county government, and i had the Washington Post endorsement which also helped in terms of my independent oliver north gets 29 on Election Night and i came in at 54 . David you signed the a can contract with your finger . I signed the contract for america. Spare me. [laughter] in fact the way this works is i just said you rely on the local government he said sign it so we signed it. The first week members came to washington and reporters would come up and say can you give me ten items in the contract for america, and they named two or three. So they would start making carts cards and we hung them around so we could come up and read them. I didnt know until 11 00 on Election Night when i got home that we had taken the house. Thats a huge come on. Oliver north had sucked up all the oxygen in the race and i was running in the stream. In the district next door, the republicans did 5 points worse. North was a more rural base very popular in the rural areas i just didnt have any of them in my district. My conclusion at the end of it is that voters who voted they wanted to captive protest vote against somewhere, against clinton. But they didnt find north in a appropriate vehicle so they came back for me. David you dont buy it was a nationalized election and the contract with america gavelinized the voters . Ill tell you from my perspective they had a ton of money and she was going to hit me on something, and she hit me on signing the contract with america. Nobody understood the thing. When she hit me on that i thought they had missed it. I was vulnerable on a lot of other issues, and they hit me on that, nobody understood what it was didnt do a thing. David so youre gone from the house again by the time i survived 86. I mean 2006. 2006 id been running my reelections were mid60s percentage wise. My polling comes back in january of 2006, we always ran it against the strongest democrat in the district. Im beating him but im at 5 1 . I had one of the best legislative years ever. I asked him what was going on and they said it was the environment bush was at a 29 approval rating, they hate bush. I had warning i spent the next news months basically making sure that i was talking to all the swing groups and making sure that i was putting my coalition together. I ended up winning the 56 , my candidate george alan was 42 . I knot a good ticket split and was able to put myself on the issues accordingly. That year they cast their protest vote with alan, we also had the benefits of earmarks. When i walked around fairfax i was mr. Woodrow wilson rich. Even voters who didnt like my parties saw redeeming qualities in me to keep me around. My district was tougher but she doesnt have ear, ams. So these raise are now parliamentary raise. In the old days you take away ear medication that was the one way they could personalize their districts. When the congress decided they werent going to designated projects and let president obama designate projects that was the beginning of the end. They took their best tool away and thats going to come back to haunt them this year. David thats a perfect segway to ms. Burkal, because the previous was an ear marker extraordinary their. Im guessing you ran against earmarks and obama. Tell us about your 648 vote on the wave. So i was 2010, and that was the year was obviously president obamas first term. And we had a number of things. First of all i was busy in a job i was an assistant attorney general minding my own business. But i reallied the democrat didnt have an opponent. And i thought to myself thats just not right. Now i will say this about our district. So i do think that 2010 and the 63 republicans that went into the house in 2010 i do think that was a wave but i dont think my race was a part of the wave, because as you mentioned i won by 682 votes and it wasnt decided until maybe 14 days after the election, Election Night so i didnt give a speech other than stay tuned. Brut so thats how it was. But so i was in my job as attorney generally, and spent my whole professional career in healthcare one way or the other, so i decided the Affordable Care act was the last straw for me. I threw my hat into the ring but i did not have a political organize. I didnt have funds or anything. You can imagine going to the powers that be in the district and counties and state party, and you know get one eye role after another, no woman has ever held that seat so it was a big deal. I think for the district at that time they were looking for jobs and looking for an improvement in the economy. Upstate new york suffered greatly as tom mentioned when jim waltz was there for 20 years, he brought back a lot of money to the district. That dried up and thats no longer something he can do. So anyway, thats kind of and i think the people in the district were that is what was most important to them, jobs and the economy, and they saw the Affordable Care act. They saw doddfrank, they saw a lot of things that were sucking energy out of the economy. So i think what we saw in 2010 in my district is they were growing to try something else. It was pretty much the way it is now. It was essentially running against nancy pelosi. That was sort of the mantra in 2010, she had been speaker, and so that was sort of a common theme we all had. But i wouldnt consider my own election a part of the wave. I do think there was that wave in 2010. Reaction to that whole laundry list of things that had gone on in the house that really werent with tied, because i think now despite the fact whether you like trump or not, if youve got more money in your bank account if theres jobs, if unemployment is lower if the gdp is at a growth rate of 2. 4 , its hard to ignore all of that because that is the issue that transcends gender, and affects every american. Ill be interested to see how that is interpreted during this election, because conceivably it should be rabeaive, first term president trump. David would you call it a wave in 12 when you got taken out . No in my district president obama was so strong there was no way i could beat that voter turn out for the 2012 election. David you look like you wanted to ask a question. So having set that stage early lightening round. You say its a wave, the others say its not a wave. Its a wave, not a wave. Do you think its a wave . Do you think the democrats will win the house . I think the democrats will win the house by 35. David by 35 or pick up 35 . Pick up 35 seats but honestl. I am sum such a bad politician. I am so bad at this so dont listen to me. [laughter] when i was in congress she was a news caster. Right but as youre in dc [laughter] truly, i just i dont know but i can david governor blancher what do you think. There wont be a big wave, i think democrats will get control of the house by a measurable amount. I think the wave will be governors starting in michigan with grechen whitmer, so i think well pick up a bunch of governors that will be a Building Block for the future, and were not going to get control of the senate, and by the way i think the big rescue with the Kavanaugh Hearing was the u. S. Senate and how they looked. And women running. And i think well elect maybe o two, possibly three women in the house in michigan. And well reelect Debbie Stabenow by more than 25f had 25 points. So i think i dont see it as a big wave. I do want to answer one question. Do waves matter . You look at the 64 election of lyndon johnen is, which was a wave, gave us medicare, medicaid, Voting Rights civil rights, pbs and is a lot of other from my point of view really good things for our country. That wave mattered. David f that wave mattered. Can i add something . I think the wave that we may see will be in down raise. In a state like north carolina, where most most of the legislative raise go unchallenged, there is not one that isnt challenged. Mostly by women. Many teachers. I dont know the exact number p, but its quite extraordinary. And i think that and were seeing that in pennsylvania its the same thing. Right outside of philadelphia there are 12 women running for legislative office. Three for state senate, about half will win. Very important for redistricting. Very important. But its also the its whats happening with that kind of wave and how you see i see it as a parent, that these women are getting in and theyre families are getting involved. Theyre children are getting involved. Its a different its the beginning of something that is a accessory change and i think a lot of it has to do with what democrats classically are not interested in downballot raise very, very important, and i think a lot of women who never would have thought of getting into politics are now doing it. David with hundreds in michigan, but whats your prediction tom . Let me talking its a midterm i chaired the committees and the president ial off year. The president s party has lost seats in admit terms 35 of 38 mid terms. I was chairman of one of those three exceptions. I always like to add. [laughter] it wasnt because of me there were extenuating factors. Look, there are three factors that go into Midterm Elections that help the out party. Often when a president wins they bring people in on their coat tails and whether they in the mid terms the numbers have to survive on their own. The best way is to call obamacentric voters. When president obama was on the ballot they came out, 2008, and 2012. But they didnt show up in the off years so that diminished the turn out. The outparty is more juiced. They are more theusk. You say this your year when youre elected. All of these in waves the outparty is more enthusiastic weve seen that consistently until the cycle until kavanaugh and the caravan thats starting to equal out. The enthusiasm began which has swept the democrats have picked up several Republican House seats, dozens of republican state held legislative seats over the last year because theyre turn out model was higher because theyre enthusiasm was higher, thats now equaling up a little bit. Theres a third factor that helps the democrats because theyre the out party, that is the independent voters who dont like either party. They tend to balance government and put the guardrails on the president rather than giving him a blank check. Even as a republican Enthusiasm Gap has gone up we have seen the independents move a little more into the democrat column. In addition, especially for the people who mean i have conversations with, the tone is a little frightening. We were talking about this earlier. The words that are being thrown into the ozone for me are frightening. But youre in a philadelphia bubble. As i said in my neighborhood two years ago if you put up a trump sign it was a hate crime. But if you went out 40 miles people were making their own trump signs and putting them in their yards. Very polarized country. When you talking about waves there will be waves in some areas. In metro areas in particular. College towns in particular. But you go out in the country theres there may be a red undertoe to that wave. I want to comment on what toms saying, i think we living in a bulk we have no idea when i travel for my current job, we travel through the country theres a different enthusiasm, a different set of priorities and its very almost unrelated to what knows on here in washington. But i think in terms of this wave, i think its going to be much closer. The kavanaugh vote i think that whole kavanaugh experience really to toms point raised the energy of the Republican Party. Kind of a prove of what would happen if the democrats took over, and so i do think a lot of the races that were absolutely not winnable are now much closer than they were,ing and i think whether or not the democrats will take over the house i think its going to be a much more narrow win than was previously thought. I will say this even three weeks ago it was a different equation. And i will say in this environment no one knows from daytoday whats going to affect. You really dont know until that night or the morning after on these waves. Its very hard. I predicted my first one but the others i couldnt. I will say this, i do believe the againstity of intensity of s underestimated. Its extraordinary and amazing how will im in a bubble bush but. I think it is extraordinary and i noticed in michigan but there are a number of women ive met and candidates as well who 10 or 20 years would have been running at moderate republicans so no place in the Republican Party for them. Now, its off set by other things perhaps but not entirely. And they could have easily been moderate republicans. Some is of them are running for congress and michigan i think theyre going to win. As republicans or democrats . Theyre going to within as democrats. The trouble in michiganing is that oakland county, the more affluent county that you represent has moved the republican. And macomb has moved more republican. The interesting something state would is this. Ive learned it and practiced it. You can win oakland more than you lose macomb and be a governor or senator and the independents of michigan today are going for the democrats and maybe what youre saying tom that its the independents but all these experts say the red voters are getting more red and the blue are getting more blue. Its hard there us to know whats really going to happen. I think if i had to characterize a wave this year as congressmen mar o goalie said it would not be a blue wave, it would be a pink wave. It is the women down ballot in missouri, theres originally one state would election, two women are running for state auditor. Second, and ive got to credit charlie cook with this observation. Its hard to talk about a wave when it appears that the senate of the house raise are happening in two different universes. Third, i am seeing as chairman davis said, were seeing particularly in some governors raise it tighten down. The democrats should have put the mexico governors race away in august. And shes in a lot tougher race than she should be. Nevada is right on the bubble. I can go state by state there. Its hard to call. David do you attribute how much of this do you or any of you attribute to the president s somebody said 43, i think hes at 47. 45. 3 real clear tonight. David but never higher, thats his peak. He has rebounded some. This caravan coming up through mexicoing could have a profound effect on who goes and votes. And how they vote. Its a volatile electorate. But there is the desire for check and balance and there is the trend when theres a president to one party to elect the governor than the other party. That trend seems to happen in canada and the prime minister. Across the globe. Yeah. David so is it trump mr. Davis, how do you see trump playing in the well i think republicans have a they do have some advantages. Number one the way the house districts are drawn is to the republicans advantage, and democrats have to overperform. Thanks in part to a wave in 2010. Iecthave the way the lines are drawn, and look put it this way. With the census were well have to look at that. Democrats live on top of each other there are it it v 21 districts where the candidate got over of the vote. They tend to live on top of each other but the best democratic strategy is a massive relocation program. [laughter] they are stacked up on top of each other in these cities. Id like to say if you live in a county with a whole foods youll probably elvote for clinton, and if you live in a county with a Cracker Barrel youd probably vote for trump. Somebody said dont you meet create and barrel . [laughter] the whole elitist thing is absolutely true. Look on this immigration issue this is really working for the democrats two months ago because the trump immigration policies were ripping childrens from their mothers arms. Now its this cascade, caravan of sothousand people trying to can march into the United States with 10,000 people. A different narrative on that issue. Thats probably working more for the republicans than it did before. Particularly in the southern region. Im not sure how much it will resonate in the industrial in the great lakes region. I dont know that. But i tend to think its not going to hurt the republicans, thats for sure. And i wouldnt put it past them to call out the troops and do cheap theater shortly before the election. The caravan doesnt arrive until after the election. Im not so sure he wont call out the troops and engage in cheap theater. For the record folks. When you talk about the Southern States its those critical leakses for senate that are in nevada, arizona, texas, mississippi, tennessee, that where it could have a profound effect. Yes,. David why is the pink wave why are the republicans women left out of that . Because i dont think the republican women are single issue voters. I think theyre not singleissue i think that the economy healthcare, theres a whole lot of issues. David im talking about candidates you mentioned when you ran in 10, you were the first woman to run in the district, i think theres a of the women the year of the woman the candidates running, theres maybe only two or three republican women that have a shot at taking i was just reading about the race 27th leanna ross shillelagh, and the republican there, she put have put it away but this trying to think of her name. Shes very close neck and neck. Thats right she was a news caster. So i dont know if i agree with that premise that the pink wave. You are getting more republican women. You probably have a republican pom senator in tennessee for the first time, you may get one in arizona. But its more incremental. Where the democrats its more significant . Ive not done a side by side but you could pick up a picture seat in the senate with Marsha Blackburn and dhafs a quicker seat. When i was elected governor of michigan in 1982 i ran even with men and 20 points ahead among women. And that trend for democrats is expanding. The same is true of cuomo, clinton carry, we were all elected in that tony earl in that election. 20 points ahead. But you have the same gender gap today on the gender ballot question. Its at least 20 points. I think its going to be greater. Let me add this it showed the polls last time shows showed that on election day it came much narrower, trump actually carried white women. So be careful what you see in the pollings on these samples, the hardest thing in polling is to figure out who shows up on election day. If you went back two months ago, anything but a democrat wave because of the againstity we saw and the complacency on the other, if that eerches up this gets tighter, you probably have today as we speak probably 3040 raise that are close to margin of error races that could move with a significant event in the next two weeks. That what makes it hard to predict. It could be a really good night for democrats, if theres a republican mistake that gavelinizes voters. A 3point flip can theres a long way to go. Im campaign chairman. Ive seen races move 1620 points in a week given major events and your whole year of planning and campaigning is out the tube because of some tweet or something. You just mentioned the tweet, i do think the media has played into all of this because they have cried wolf so many times and been in a panic about all of these, whether its a tweet or speech, the president is doing, and theyre constantly reacting to that, and i think the americans are kind of like whoa, and then the message is getting diluted. And we havent had an armageddon david i think theyre panicked with getting it wrong. The other thing the chairman and i were talking earlier. You have states in which 60 of the vote will be cast in early voting. In nevada certainly, florida, others. So if theres a late event, it may be too late to change a lot of votes. And its very i divide my time between michigan and washington. Very hard to analyze things in washington or by just watching the cable tv. Very hard. And i agree, i think two weeks nowadays, is a light year. Anything david before we go to questions lets talk about the election. Governor blanchered this moved beyond the elections, were going to go to questions in just a few minutes, but when the wave crashes and then so what . So it being the beneficiary of a wave if you think back on it, did it change in any way what you got to do in congress in that at least in that first term . Let me say ill speak for our class in 94, we had the contract for america. It was called the contract with america by the way. I was overcorrected. I was overcorrecting. But of course we moved a lot of product through the house. Some through the senate. But you have a man date to do things. Thats when things get started and traditionally parties overreact to their mandates. In 2010 republicans seemed to think they had a mandate, i said they voted us out in 2006, and 2007. We dont have a mant for anything. The fact we had a Democrat Senate that was the only check we needed because we voted on a lot of stuff, baner and canter day after day we voted 1012, 15 bills and none of it went anywhere, so im not sure what that exercise was all about. Just giving you bad votes. They created a record. The year of the woman there were 24 new women came in, and we did think that we had to we didnt know what we were doing, we thought we had to make a difference. Family and medical leave had been on the back burnenner. We knew it was the conversation we should have and we did. The assault weapons ban. We knew that was it was also a lot of the things given to us were things that we could somehow create into the family issues. So we knew that that was important. And we were talking about this earlier. With that although it certainly that the vote david the vote . Tell us about the vote. David its called the vote. Yeah, right. Were most of you alive . I was i watched. Did you . I was up in the gallery, i looked down. It answered to the question, when we got there we were brought in by clinton, and one of the things that i thought was important was this ommumous budget that was important to his doing what he wanted to do. It had been as you can well imagine it had been presented as a tax increase, not a deficit reduction. And as i said before, i represented a republican district. And so youre the deciding vote . She was the deciding vote she could march down the aisle. David handed in the card. It wasnt quite. David it was pretty dramatic. Because it was too late to devote electronically, so you had to hand in a card and they announced. I talked to the president and i said i would only be your 218th vote. I knew there had been two votes like that in history. You know what they are, dont you . Youre so boring you know what they are. [laughter] the impeachment of Andrew Johnson and the draft. There had been two votes like that in history. I didnt feel and our leadership chair persons of committees were voting against it and i stood there, his representative in congress ray thornten was i cant support 3cent a gallon gasoline tax. I was just stunned that and dumb. That people were not understanding how important his his having gotten us there was. So yes, i was david so she kept the vote and its a different meaning of the word wave because it wasnt a wave election but it was one of the it was kind of a big marker for the decline of civility in congress i have to say. All the republicans. Bob walker david they all started waving and chanting. By by managery. Right . Goodbye marjorie. Who was jumping up and down saying saying byebye he was a bit of a jerk and a phenomenal jumper. [laughter] i was standing there saying no, this is not this is crazy. But let me make a point, if you cant go to congress and make a tough vote and prepared to lose your seat over making a tough vote why are you there . Ive seen time and time again and i wouldnt be ashamed of it. You should be proud of the fact you stood up and stood for something. I am tired of these guys who are just safe they dont want to take a tough vote on anything. And so nothing gets done. Why are you there if you cant i for very unpopular vote. Remember getting a member in the back room saying i hope this hases. And he said well im not voting for it. Well you just told me you hope it passes. I could never explain this, it lost the first time, the markets went down 700 points in a matter of minutes. We brought it back but i said you think this jobs that great, what do you like the parking . [laughter] what is so great if you cant come here to take a tough vote when you know its the right thing to do, what are you doing here . Youre here for the wrong reasons. So i have a lot of admiration for people i admired you dont have to apologize for doing the right thing. I didnt think it was not the right thing to do. I understand. But that was your job. For crying out loud. You already described yourself as naive, but it was a great thing, and by the way the clinton Economic Recovery Program led to 323 million new jobs. It didnt help elect me so [laughter] we had a Budget Surplus and the republicans could say they helped, fine we had a Budget Surplus when bill Clinton Left Office in 23 million new jobs rising middle class incomes, wow what a record and you helped. And it was an accomplishment we beat expectations and they said well you do it again. I think im going to put this on the line and there were a lot of reasons for that where we had a say instead of overreaching we took seats off the table. To what end. Governor when you came into the system for internal reform there was a book that came out a year ago but its interesting not a lot of major legislative reforms, but the critics say they lived their life the wrong way in unions and minorities. How processed they are today. The Affordable Care act and that matter. You did prescription drugs, we did welfare reform to pass three times before president clinton signed it. We had a balanced budget act signed by john kasich and president clinton. It was an accumulation of a lot of things for the economy that went with that, but we made a difference. I left because i was turned out as the Committee Chairmen and we were not doing anything. Let me make this point the new governance model is by executive order and regulation had been you have the courts uphold it and the senate is critical to getting the regulatory and courts in place but nothing has happened legislatively accept when you get a landslide like obama where they have 60 votes and it takes 60 votes in the senate to do most things its just impossible to get a. Everybody knows it and they made themselves look like first class recently you raised an important point the house giving up the house has done that in terms of its power to the regulatory. After the iraq war they didnt touch isis if something goes wrong. When i wasnt impeaching him let me just say i had bitter relations with people he was personally very good on these issues and i wrote a lot with him on the control board together we did a lot of Work Together with a very professional group around him the politics went out. He also had a good policy folks around him once yo once to pickt outside of the noise of the dance, they were good and easy to work with. And clinton was the kind of politician you could go to impeach him one day. As a politician, very forgiving. Very good judge of character. We have about 25 minutes of questions. Please go to the microphones to ask your questions. I always see the society have to go to improve someone to benefit especially somehow i dont think they can turn around unless you do something about it because it is so important in the power is so important to get rid of the bill and misconduct, but a letter supported by those power and good candidates will be sent to jail. Is how we are going to improve the system that is manipulated by those in the interest group. Part of the thing about the way the election is the connotation that its a surprise, but there are no surprises in american politics anymore. It was going to be the collation and the voters have a way of telling politicians when they think things are going the wrong way or maybe the way we think they are in washington, and if that happened in 2016, they make a correction. At times when the change there is a pullback afterwards. And i think it was 2010. Absolutely. Let me just give you content with the change in the worl word today both culturally and economically there is disruption obviously the economic community, but there is disruption in the political purpose third party in france we have a coalition. Its across the globe. And the rest of the world its been expressed as third and fourth parties whether it is a immigration, globalization, wealth disparity, climate change. But in the United States to date it has been a twoparty system. Its moved the party. The center is gone. Democrats are viewed left and this is my opinion they are about to move more left. If you pre clinton stayed center i think it would have been different but a lot of republicans like myself say give me something. When i looked in 2016 i knew we had a democratic president for eight years and the was for a change. She only one of 3 million. Think about trump being walled but there was change into the belief things were not working right in washington. She was kind of running as a third term of obama and i believe Bernie Sanders did damage her in the primary and ralph nader cost al gore and rosross perot didnt help georg. W. Bush, so thereve been these kind of movement and i think a lot of the candidates or more moderate but if i were a republican president obama kind of help with the lid on things. You will find the glue that held the coalitioholdthe coalition tg unglued and let me give you one fact of the 30 Top Performing districts in the house, not one will be represented in the next congress to. Its not an indictment it is just the politics and where it is taken in some of these different directions. Thank you for being here tonight. With one week left do you think we have seen the prius or is there more time for the pollsters . Hard to read. We dont know. As the governor was saying, we all said two weeks is an eternity. Trump has had a few good weeks of getting a trade agreement with canada and mexico in line with having the economic numbers where they are house i think helped his numbers and helped republican candidates. Thats not a surprise but its different and awarthatsdifferea month ago. But who knows. Anything can happen. I was born on a sunny day so i would like to say i think what will surprise you is whats happening with women and their enthusiasm. I think youll see something quite extraordinary. And thats just the beginning. You made an excellent point about this early voting thing and i would love to add some statistics about comparing the early vote in some of these races versus the overall vote and is it a microcosm because it is going to start being the end of september surprise. Another answer i would offer it as an eternity where things can turn on but im the votes that have already been cast but on the other hand, if you look at people who should be turning on trump, the swabian farmers, the corn farmers, workers who are being laid off because of the tariffs on mexican steel all of them say that im still for him, i think hes right. One swabian farmers said the other day this continues another year or two i may have to rethink this. While i think it is absolutely true and everyone said it can turn on a dime it also takes time for some of these things to sink in. An argument can be made voters did not vote their economic selfinterest in some cases. They may return to that but it may take economic pain before they do. Im not looking for a further surprise getting the votes are cast. I think the independent voters are going to go for democrats including independents the reason they feel that theres something wrong with the governing activities. Ive had a lot of people come up and say i had it im going to vote for the democrats and didnt even ask who they were. Theres others who will say im going to separate his personality from what hes done the last two years so they wont vote for him maybe even to your point in missouri theres a whole lot oholdof people delight hes done and we keep saying that in this country first. Is job Approval Ratings are better than his personal. We get those mixed up sometimes given the state of the economy and these other issues. Ethnicwith mixing it was thee end with bil bill clinton it wa. Wasnt. The disapproval as a person but the approval and was president. Its usually that way with obama. The last three times a party has come up for a Midterm Election and controls the presidency in the house and the senate was 1990 or, 2006 and 2010. Each time they got punished more than the abundance of thought. It doesnt mean its going to happen again but thats where they are sitting there saying what are we missing. Its not always picked up in the polls. I think they will be the difference. The democrat democrats will be t him no matter what he does at this point. Thank you for taking questions. Assuming that the democrats do win back the house and a couple of, it seems likely they wont be able to publish everything given the presidency. Do you think that potential lack of accomplishments could hurt democratic enthusiasm in 2020, and therefore prospect for winning back the senate or the white house lacks let me take the first step at that. We went through this with obama republicans took the house in 2010 and we had a group of republicans that were upset you guys are not moving fast enough and we had to move the party up there the speaker called that one play. We went through this thing and looked pretty dysfunctional. We didnt look back at the presidency so there is a concern. But the news for democrats is that they take a house they will have investigative powers and they will probably look under the hood on some of these issu issues. This is before Robert Mueller comes out with its report. If the democrats dont move on impeachment and have to go back to here and a half from now, how do they react to that and thats where we will see what generates msnbc. Lets understand the pressures when you already have the constituency right now. Im not a member of an organized political party, im a democrat. I stand corrected. And insightful person who understood. We cant get out of our own way we have a leadership the house they will turn 80 in the next congress. I take the turning point while i dont know how they go back to the voters not having pursued impeachment and i think it is suicidal that they do. They are practical people and unless the senate were to change dramatically and things changed substantially, there is no chance of impeachment being successful. But i do agree that there will be investigations. I worry about that more than anything. I think some pretty incredible things are going to unfold and im glad hes waiting until after to deal with it. If youre donald trump wouldnt you want to go off to them that this now Democratic House majority . I would allow for an infrastructure plan. People bacput people back to wor society and have something of value left over other than a trillion dollar deficit this year. I think that they are not talking about impeachment until after Robert Mueller. It would awaken the voters very quickly if people besides Maxine Waters who talks about it every time she speaks but i do think this when the report comes out its a pretty leakproof obligation but i cant believe it is going to be helpful to the president to think of it this way when you get this Additional Information how do you resist this. Jerry nadler who i have a high regard has to go back to the Upper West Side in greenwich village. You will see primaries over the place. Let me give you my crystal ball. There is indictment of the families and of the report that says not just once but two or three times and theres a case for criminal activity bu activif the remedy. So lets say the house goes forward but you are reading headlines and invite friends. Not even a chance they dont have to walk the plank on that issue and now the seats will be up. They are sick of all of this. For three quarters of these members the only way that counts is the primary. They will be looking over their Left Shoulder in this report comes out. Youve been talking about the republicans going to the right and democrats going to the left. This large independent group is there the possibility that there will be more independent candidates or a thirdparty . They have a difficult system to be a partisan shootout. I wouldnt be shocked if you have a strong candidate up the middle to th with a chance of wg is pretty slim. I dont think that they will fare well for the governor of kansas that huge debate going on right now whose vote is going to take. You have the independent governor of alaska withdrawal although he will stay on the ballot. The machinery is impaired. If iunfair. If it were we would g about period. I dont see it succeeding in electing a president. Michael bloomberg decided to register and reregister the. It takes a lot of talent to wrap. Many of us are super concerned about Voter Suppression that is happening around the country in georgia and other places. What impact do you see that having them close races around the country . People think they are the targets of suppression. I think it is a calculated move by the republicans. May be as the mailin ballots are calculated for democrats to work for the electoral, but i dont know anybody that cant vote but wants to vote and i dont think anybody is being denied is that eve that even une charge of rule you go and vote and prove you are who you say you are and so i think the governor is right sometimes these things blow up because it lets people its a little bit overhyped and republicans when they do these things they give them an opportunity to do that and democrats take advantage. In michigan that republicans passed the law or the street ticket voting that weve had forever so it will be interesting to see and i think that will give some change back to to see what effect that has. You have to go to each race. Theres a lot more republicans and democrats. The single biggest things that they are missing this would have been for patrick and the attorney general will be elected and help. Did you ever believe that fraudulent voting was important in any vote that you ran . We had a couple a year back. I think the modest voter id laws are appropriate. I dont have a problem but if you dont have those guardrails up they go back and look at those that come in and goes for registerinthosethat are registel aragon. Maybe they were there for the month and stayed or maybe they are legitimate but for the District Attorney for democrats anyway and are not going to get investigative. So i dont think we have a total story i dont think it is as widespread as people think it is that if nobodys looking you will get bad behavior and we see that in virginia sometimes. Historically it has happened. I refer you to the book on lyndon johnson. We had hurricane sandy. You talk about the variables so they say they University Students could vote. The. Computer hacking and manipulation with the exception of people voting in two different places but not thinking its wrong that tends to be those that live in michigan or florida or illinois. We need to look at voting in two different states thinking they are entitled. And the present president ial isnt a contradiction. They might be voting for the mayor in naples florida. The turnout in the last Midterm Election was 5. 4 since 1942. What will the midterm the. I would say 45. Im going to go with 55. The are you still awake out there . [applause] the reporter wants to end the evening by saying i learned a lot, and i did learn a lot. The worldrenowned archivist of the United States you heard him start the program in full disclosure the chairman of the Archives Foundation we house all of the documents and have regular exhibitions that are tremendous like on vietnatremene womens right to vote in march. Its a great place to appreciate the country and the people that did it and i know my colleagues are part of those that did their best to build it