Thank you. [applause] the writers festival continues now with a discussion on us president ial elections with Arthenia Joyner and historians mark and morley. Karl rove, your moderator. [applause] good morning. What a pleasure to be here to talk about some of the most important subjects that are on everybodys mind. Today we are going to have a wonderful opportunity to talk to three outstanding experts about the election that changed our history. Somebody who once worked on many campaigns, i will be fascinated to hear the assessment of my colleagues here. Lets start with you, hw. How these we should be looking at transformation as an overarching theme for discussion, president ial leadership . When i think about a. Elections i talk about two categories, those elections whose importance is not known until after the election because the election sets up certain conditions, brings in a certain officeholder and things happen. The election of 1942 where Franklin Roosevelt becomes president and launches the new deal, the moment he won no one knew how big a deal it was. In 1860 Abraham Lincoln was elected and immediately things start to fall apart. Those were important because what happens after that i would like to think elections also, ratify or continue something that is already going on. These are elections whose importance we know from the moment we know the outcome of the election. In 1864, Abraham Lincoln was reelected, that would have signaled the union, the will of the union to continue the civil war had finished and there might very well have been a negotiated peace, the fact that lincoln won made very clear that this war was going to be far to the finish. As soon as the outcome of the election was known it was clear this was important but these elections are almost always elections where a president is up for reelection. These stand in as referenda for the performance of a president. Another one that is sometimes overlooked, not reelection but Lyndon Johnson in 1964 because johnson had just been instrumental in passing the most controversial piece of legislation, Civil Rights Act of 1964. And overwhelmingly elected. It signaled the American People, the american electorate as a whole that was ready for this kind of change. Another landslide. A thunderous vote of approval. Back to the early republic. And we look at the civil war as the crucible of our time. And 7 Southern States and having to be stuck in. There were body doubles, secessionists, simmering in maryland and anchor in virginia and lincoln is stuck there. Let me take lincoln from that victory and say the Republican Party is the dominant president ial election party, lincoln all the way to fdr. It is all republicans except grover cleveland. From 1912, and cut the Republican Party in two. And wilson does reelection. And after republican and republican and republican and in 1932 all the way until 1980. And in the age of Franklin Roosevelt and the 1932 election. And i will get to why in one second but if you follow me, not only did fdr win in 32, 36, 40, 44, a constitutional amendment, after his death to stop this. Roosevelt convinced the American People that the federal government is your friend, uncle sam is your friend and did it through programs, all the new deal, social security, if you are a farmer, soil conservation, and the whole apparatus ended with the manhattan project, government project, atomic bombs, how is fdr the new deal becomes the fair deal, truman in a very slightly different way than that, the joint chiefs of staff, department of air force, National Security council, eisenhower, we talked yesterday, interstate highway, Government Intervention in little rock, kennedy going in space, Lyndon Johnson, the federal government, urban poor, schools, the whole medicaid medicare, richard nixon, affirmative action, creates the epa, government, jimmy carter creates fema, the payment of energy, department of education, reagan and the reagan revolution turns deep red in a landslide victory. Since 80 we have been losing living in the age of reagan, centerright, not centerleft and makes it very hard, for democrats to win in order to do so had to do what bill clinton did. He got lucky and 92 in many ways but triangulates, take the barack obama snuck in the Affordable Care act, became a firewall to protect fdr, johnson heirlooms, and government expansion so those two elections to me, 32, in 1980, are two giant ones. When i teach, i focus on a lot. Fascinating analysis. How does it look for the position of upholsterer, a political activist . I look at it as a political scientist. Political science major available in college but sociology. They traditionally looked at american elections at 5 great realigning elections, bills point, things are different after the election than before. And four of the five realigning elections have been mentioned, the election of 1800. And the other one to andrew jackson. My particular favorite in 1996. We Pay Attention in four instances and tend to magnify and gloss over the difficulty of getting there. Universally popular, must have been, the declaration of independence, and their early wins the election. With the lack of clarity about who was president of the united states, the election of 1800, in 17 february, 15 days, constitutionally appointed day. In the Electoral College. And back then, you voted for the electors voted for two and the leading parties, electors voted for somebody else and so forth, the election of 1800, 73 electors voted for jefferson, 73 voted for burr because there is attempting a coup. It goes to the house of representatives on 11 february 18, 01 in a tie. Washington is buried in a snowstorm. 16 states, the winner has to get 9. Each state has one vote past by congressional delegation and the first outlet is eight for jefferson, six for burr and two tied and only one of those is tied because congressman Joseph Nicholson who is suffering from a fever is put on a stretcher and carried two miles through washington dc, put in a Committee Room where his wife fears he is going to die and he is there to keep maryland tied otherwise the vote would go to burr and it would be 7, 8 to 7. After 36 ballots in six days, 11 february they begin voting at 10 00 in the morning and vote every hour until the following evening, they vote through the night, cast 28 ballots and around april come to the decision, they vote for five more days and on the 36 ballot Alexander Hamilton helps deliver the presidency to the man he hates more than anyone else except when in american politics, thomas jefferson, by saying of the evils, take the lesser. And congressman from delaware, casts a blank ballot so this state moves out of the birth column and convinces a federalist colleague to absent himself so delivering the vote from jefferson, they get four federalists from maryland, turning maryland into a state that is voting for jefferson and four federalists in south carolina, so the vote doesnt count and the election is ten vote, six votes too. We look at these things and say jefferson must have been so popular, 106 days how popular is that . The election of 1896 is the one we gloss over. Bill is right the we have a republican ascendancy that comes into play with Abraham Lincoln but in five elections from 1876, and 1896, american politics is fundamentally broken, the country is deeply polarized, we have five president ial elections in a row in which nobody gets 50 of the vote, two president s get elected with minority of the popular vote to in the Electoral College like the guy we got now and the guy that i served and another guy wins the Electoral College and the popular vote but i believe imagination nationwide is less then 10,000 votes and along comes the most misunderstood and unknown president , the 25th president of the united states, william mckinley, fundamentally alters american politics, realigning election because this polarization of the gilded age is fundamentally broken and for the next 36 years the republicans dominate it all. Most of the mayors in the major cities in the north and the border states are republicans, new york, philadelphia, chicago, San Francisco, San Francisco had a republican mayor, the decline, and republicans at that point nominated all except when they break among themselves. There is a fantastic book i can recommend, it is brilliantly written, sex, violence, backstabbing, betrayal and everyone has a cool nickname, it is a damn good book. I would like to follow up this fascinating recitation of key moment in American History and ask about the Electoral College. We are doing lots of unhappiness about the Electoral College in certain circles, this is the second time in recent history the Electoral College has produced a different outcome than the popular vote and i wondered if anybody on this panel would like to volunteer for putting a straight on that question. I will tell you how little i know about it. 4 years i would tell my American History student the Electoral College with a quaint artifact from the 18th and 19th centuries that had caused any trouble since the late 19th century and this i started teaching in the 1970s, i confidently predicted that it would probably exist until it got the answer wrong, that is when the electoral vote differed from the popular vote and as soon as this will happen there will be a groundswell of opposition to the Electoral College and it will be swept away because if it didnt exist, no one would invented. It will go away as soon as the popular will is frustrated. I wasnt counting on karl rove. Your mistake. I say this because along comes the election of 2000 and carl negates the popular vote. The surprising thing to me about it was there was no groundswell, there was almost not a people. It sort of convinced me we are stuck with this. There are very good reasons, it serves the interest of small states, there are more small states the large states, and we have to amend the constitution statebystate, not a popular vote on amending the constitution. I cant say, particularly surprise in 2016 we got more of the same, fallback on if i didnt have it today, and some way of changing it is not going to be changed. Electoral college is here to stay. Anytime you have an election like in 2000 or Hillary Clinton and trump, there is a little bit of a clamor, any words so it would change of state like north dakota gets two senators in north dakota and another only gets two because if you were going to do the popular vote imagine the recounts on a close election, if we can recount florida imagine trying to do it in a national fashion. All politicians would be offering massive urban centers, and you go where the population pockets are and abandon Rural America or Agricultural Sector so i dont see Electoral College going away anytime soon and it may well be if trump got reelected, he would probably not when the popular vote again. It is likely he wont when it but the Electoral College, there is going to be frustration, it should be one person one vote but the Electoral College is here to stay. I would edit out to stay because it is an enormous ball work for the two party system and america benefits from having a stable democracy, two big parties, the multiparty system is that we see in europe, imagine having four or five parties in the house of representatives and trying to organize the house and operate, we have trouble enough with two parties. Let me say one other thing which theres a reason there is no great cry for getting rid of the Electoral College, the outcomes like in 2000 are not the result of the campaigns but the result of the media. On that night florida was called for al gore, the panhandle of florida had an hour to vote. If you drive a line across the country and to these to that line are all of the states that close their polls by the time the networks began calling florida for al gore prematurely added 30 in the evening and the west, polls are still open, you find something very unusual and that is states to the east of that close virtually every single one of them shows an increase in the turnout compared to 1996 of the west of that, a decline in the percentage of turnout from 1996 and gerri persky had never been involved, never really been involved in practical politics called me frantically within 15 minutes of the call for florida and people walking because the contest is over. Bush loses the popular vote, two things, some evangelicals, and i cant come out and vote, should have turned out west of that for him, and going home. River remembered ralph naders and every loser runs a terrible every loser. Great campaign and then a stupid campaign. He ran a Good Campaign that year. And clinton high in the polls, he had an economy with a balanced budget and a surplus, doing that lockbox thing and wearing turtlenecks and Joe Lieberman didnt give him the boost he thought and getting ralph nader not to be on the ballot in florida and when james baker came to florida versus warren christopher, baker clearly was going to outgun we were also backed by the Supreme Court the twice by 7numtwo margin held violating article 5 of the constitution by trying to change the rules after the election. If you have any doubts about the gore strategy and how cynical it was, it is over here in the library, david boys autobiography, lead lawyer for al gore who says in their they did not call for a statewide recounts which is what the law required because if they recounted all of the counties in the state gore concluded bushs lead would grow. They wanted to, quote, harvest votes by picking three very large democratic counties and try to go in and harvest votes in the undercount so people who did not vote in the president ial election somehow get enough votes out of that to the race bushs margin. Highly cynical and twice the Supreme Court voted 7numtwo to violate the article 5 of the constitution which requires it is conducted by rules before the election and the 5numfour decision was should we remand the issue back to the florida Supreme Court again telling them they got it wrong or because we are several days, the set time for the meeting of the Electoral College, college end to it that a 5numfour decision falling into it but vote on the fundamental, 7numtwo, not once but twice by the Supreme Court. To be fair to al gore lets not be, please. Once the Supreme Court decision was rendered, gore behaved quite a bit a with the second us Supreme Court decision, this is really important, this is really important because if you go back to some of these critical elections, one of the things that happened is the victor is either helped by the nature in which they win the victory, they go on to govern the country. Let us not be enemies but we shall be friends. All of these showed National Unity and optimism. 1980. When will we get a theme of optimism again . What we get candidates capable of protecting that. Not to 12 on that but to help unify the country the first candidate republican or democrat to appear before black audiences before he becomes the partys nominee. The first republican to receive the endorsement of the catholic hierarchy. Republicans were the anglosaxon Protestant Party of the urban ethnics of working people many are catholic. But on october 9 is one of the most amazing moments in American History to become the first president since the civil war, remember remember the man nominated for the congressional medal of honor refuses to have his application process because i was only doing my duty. A civil war hero enters as a private and leaves as a major and survives to Suicide Mission the first president as a republican candidate to appear locally with Southern Confederate veterans to visit him for the Front Porch Campaign with National Unity with thousands of people lining the streets openly weeping at the sight of blue and gray together under the american flag. It was an unbelievable moment. [applause] i was going to say thinking of that election with mckinley but sometimes there are president ial elections that dont make the top five but nevertheless to have charm or interest the 1841 William Harry harrison said the things that come into our parlance Martin Van Buren estate it was controversial because he put okay on a memo. To make a long story short okay it has entered our parlance because of that one of the most expressed phrases that we say that same year they did a ball of twine to say ke