Im todd come host of the take with them Public Radio International and wnyc and is a pleasure to be invited to host this panel today and i been excited about it as ive been preparing because the issue of north korea is rising to the forefront of americas, americans mice. These are experts with me and youre all well versed in this topic, too, and Many Americans with first time in a long time are starting to take a lot harder look about north korea, the potential threat and what it means for them to everybody in washington is thinking about it so im glad to be here and im glad to be part of this. Im joined by four panelists who bring a wide range of perspectives on north n korea. First is our host who is the u. S. Institute of peace expert focusing on Korean Peninsula issues from 2001 until this year. Year. Frank served as a Senior Advisor for north korea into office of the secretary of defense. Welcome. [applause] he is your host, after all. Chief of the pyongyang bureau. [applause] she is a colleague in the press. Former reporter. Todd anthony is a senior fellow at the foundation. Anthony ruggiero is on the end. He is a senior fellow for the defense of democracy. He is a former government expert on targeted financial measures, he was part of the Six Party Talks on deed and regularization and a nonproliferation advisor for the United States. He is here to guide us through some the questions of sanctions as we move forward. Its good to have you. [applause] you all knowow glenn ford for this to my right was a member of the European Parliament for 25 years focused on asia related issues. He coauthored a book north korea on the brink of survival. Its good to have you. Before we start our discussion, lets start with the news. Its a good place to start. The latest Ballistic Missile launch from north korea. North korea claimed it luke and times the height of the International Space station. That might not mean much but you need to know when so high that i can go so very far. Apparently now could land on chicago or cleveland or my hometown of hershey pennsylvania if kim jongun decided that was a place he wanted to hit. Lets hear from un ambassador nikki haley. We have audio. We have never sought war with north korea and still today we do not seek it. If war does come, it will be the cause of continued acts of aggression that we witnessed yesterday, and if it comes, make no mistake, the north korean regime will be utterly destroye destroyed. Frank, let me start with you. This latest test, the latest in a long series of tests that weve all watched, does it change the state of play now that it cannot only reach the left coast with the continental United States would you see something fundamentally different. Youre right, the test that they conducted earlier this week is the latest version of their Ballistic Missile credit was very large muscle with advanced second stage capability and effective range was 8000 miles so that can cover all the United States. Wouldnt call it a fundamental shift in the technical capability. We knew this test was coming. If there is a fundamental shift i would say its more, a good be more in their politicalca posture because kim jongun has said before he wants to simultaneously develop the Nuclear Weapons program as wellel as the economy and with this test he stated they have finalized the Nuclear Weapons force. We may be looking for shift in the regime toward more Economic Development were pivot toward an opening engagement. One bit of speculation or analysis that ive heard is this dual track, weapons developing the economy, suggesting that hes looking for space to back off and leave me alone, let me sostructure my economy without interference. You buy that . Thats what he said since he implemented the dual track, he said that in 2013. We will see. It remains to be seen of that policy will move forward now that he secured his nuclear weapon. I want to play a video clip coming from the student at the academy of Foreign Relations in south korea. Lets play this clip. Its probably angry and so i will try to translate after tsl minute. It says i want to learn more about the specific ideologies that President Trump might have since the Nuclear Issue is a problem for the entire world, we must understand each countrys policy and then she asks if she has a study message for President Trump and she said please study. Using twitter does not mean you are communicating with the American People want to talk about twitter for a moment because this is a very new way of communicating on the world stage. You have a sense of how the north interprets twitter messages from the president . Whether insulting or bombastic. They certainly talk about them, i was there last week talking to people in the grand Workers Party and they talk about his twitter free. Twitter feed. Having retweeted some of the most vile material from the extreme neonazi right in britain which is actually false video, it would encourage North Koreans very much. His recent contribution this morning on twitter with respect to north korea was less than fully helpful in the sense that whether North Koreans like it or not, kim jongun is almost a god, and if youre insulting him it makes it very difficult to get him to come to the table. Theyre not willing to put up with insults or threats of being wiped out. Thats fine. They understand that but going to the extent as a step too far. Imagine what would happen in japan if you insulted the emperor. Inknow what happens thailand you insulted, you get 20 years in jail. Whose reading twitter and north korea. Is it just a handful of people. Oh yes. They get an equivalent of reference views which is a daily compilation of worldviews which, even if theyre not seeing twitter itself, its being covered. Part of the problem is have all information but they dont understand what it means necessarily. One of the problems they have with the United States, its a very different system from their own and they dont understand checks and balances and they dont understand that people within the same in administration are saying Different Things at the same time. It seems clear that the administration has abandoned strategic patients. Or halfway . Theyve gone to Great Lengths to rhetorically abandon it but have you noticed a substantive difference where shift in strategy or tactics aside from the twitter feed from this administration than from the one or two before . Lets talk about the twitter feed. It will answer that question. One of the differences we are seeing in terms of obama era policy interest and strategic patients is the rhetoric. The rhetoric is not only confusing to the North Koreans but also the south koreans because it doesnt jive with the policy that the secretary of state is putting out there when it comes to dealing with north korea. Ar the rhetoric about the strategic patients, its kind of like when you have a naughty child. Theres a theory that you should give that child the attention they are grieving, but part of that policy was to kind of ignore the provocations, but were getting with these kind of crazy tweets is a rise in the words and certainly what people in south korea are worried about is of both these leaders raise the rhetoric where the can back down, will that lead the region to a conflict. Its very confusing for south korea not to mention those in the u. S. And the North Koreans. I have to remind you, we have a state and a ceasefire in place on the Korean Peninsula. We are limited to a certain degree if we abide by that. North korea knows that and has pushed things up to the limit but the presen the president can threaten all he wants but there is a limit, to a certain degree if you follow the code of conduct to what you can do in terms of military action. Of course they can go ahead and do it, but there is a ceasefire that has been in place since 1953 to that something to keep in mind. We will talk a little bit more about military options a little bit later in the program. Sticking on the twitter theme for one moment, another feature of the president s twitter feed is pushing the chinese and sometimes encouraging them or praising them andch sometimes insulting them as well and trying to get them to crackdown on north korea. Is that effective . How far has attempted ministration gotten with their calls to the Chinese Government to get tough on northfr korea. When you asked the question about comparing the policy of strategic patients, the relationship with china is the biggest example of a difference. This is the First Administration that has gone after china was sanctions for their involvement. Theyve gone after one chinese bank and many chinese nationals. The interesting part, to your pointin about public talking about how to have a close relationship, but there is a top message being delivered. For trumps trip to beijing he was very public in just a few weeks later comes back and there are strong sanctions. I would also come back for a second, back to the question of does this missileue test mean we are moving forward on the polic policy, its an act of caution that we saw larger missile systems. Its not the end of north koreas dangerous missile program, they are probably larger missile they are working on nowra and i remember, it was only monday, the day before the test were people were saying the 70 day pause was an opportunity for negotiation. Thats not true. North korea was using that window to build a bigger missile to reach the United States. I think we have to be very careful about suggesting the North Koreans are all the sudden, throw up their hands and say now is have a negotiation. They will only wanted on their terms and not on denuclearization terms. Whats changed is they have actually said its the in their program. In a sense, if they retest in the near future, that the loss of face for him. He said its complete. It seems to me were in a much better position than we been in the past. I have to say, barack obama scscribed his policy as strategic patients. I term it neglect. The sanctions were on when they were squeezing north korea. It wasnt a benign operation by any means, but i think the key thing to realize is it ministration completely must understand chinas influence because frankly, on the economy, china has some ability to hurt north korea but he doesnt want to collapse the state. The last thing he wants his u. S. Troops on the southern banks. Or north korean refugees. The people who have the big problem on the south. Ob the point being that some is no political influence over north korea. This notion that some people still have, the workers parties, some sort of subsidiary of the beijing and Chinese Communist party is complete nonsense and the sooner they learn that the better. I do want to stick on china to the next part of our discussion. You want to add something about missile. I just wanted to mention that i read the statement of completion a little bit differently. We begun the final process of completing this Nuclear Weaponry which i read to mean they acknowledge they have a couple more tests their meaning to conduct so i dont pick we can relax quite yet and i think the experts might agreed that they have to master reentry before they have the Weapon System that can truly threaten a spread that said, i think every test is dangerous for other reasons but i think we should keep in mind it could be some political posturing m. He said im going to complete this by the end of the year. He has to show his people that he has a timeline and work in a completed and i had expected a test, i know everything what is up with the 75 day lull but i was expecting one in december because this has been a time for testing because december is the month that his father passed away. Was there a couple reasons why he wanted to test this missile . What better way to honor your relatives. Frank, you wanted to add something. Chinaan. Doesnt have as much political influence on north korea as people say, but they do have the leverage. To anthonys point, china has increased sanctions and were seeing that a lot. Thats good because i do want to stay with china. We have another contributor. She has this message for President Trump. Lets watch the clip. I will use my abilities for translation yet again. He says learn from our presiden president , one belt one road, Peaceful Development , peaceful prosperity, being the only powerful country isnt fun. Look at china and russia. We are on great terms. Why do you have to do what you been doing. Everyone can participate. You do not have the dominate the game all by yourself. I think most people share this view. Lf anthony, President Trump may agree here. Here the u. S. Has been trying to deal them further into the. Rocess china is split on how far to go in pushing on the North Koreans. When you look at the sanctions , the chinese leadership faces a difficult decision. The North Koreans they learned when they sanctioned bank asia that they should not have all their operations in one place. While they do have a majority in one country, it is diverse. The question for the leadership is how long are they gonna look the other way . I agree with what the other panelists have said that china has very little political leverage, but with the amount of trade they have with north korea, its hard to claim that they have no leverage with north korea. Its clear they have leverage with north korea. The issue here is going to come downe to the United States is going have to use its own sanctions about china to get them to act and we dont have a lot of examples because there havent been a lot of examplesav but in some of the examples where the u. S. Acted first, they followed that with investigations of looking into the activity. We will have to see more of that. I dont think they are ready to do that on their own nationals but we have to get that. Im in a take this opportunity to own and trademark the domino sanctions. Thats what youre talking about to that china turns around d and leans on the north. The chinese are willing to nibble around the edges a little bit and certainly there are North Koreans engaged in the activities. I dont want to suggest there are not but there are far more Chinese Companies and nationals and banks that are engaged in this activity. The un is not going to allow them to sanction chinese persons. Its really left to the United States. Just part of history, this is exactly what we did. The United States, a majority of the sanctions that brought iran to the negotiating tables were not sanctions. They were implemented by the Uniteded States and a group of likeminded people. Is china going to be the one thats sanctioned . What is the purpose if theyre not developing Nuclear Weapons . What are they there for . Have written extensively on this part since i left the government. Its pretty clear, if you look at the numbers, even back to february 2016, north korea was eighth in the sanctions program. Zimbabwe in the balkans and other countries that were not as much of a threat they were supposed to start stop them from becoming a partner capable of hitting the United States. Its very clear the sanctions will not stop that from happening. G. The capability of hitting the United States was within three months. Do you think this will happen in the next three weeks . I think the goal of sanctions is denuclearization through negotiation. Ill use the iran example again but i remember very clearly people said iran would never return to the negotiating table. They said you can never go after their oil revenue and other things like that. The North Koreans have not yet felt what it is like to have the United States government use iran style sanctions on them and you know who knows that the chinese know that. I think the clear issue here is will the north korean regime the elite, will they be able to continue to get revenue . Anthony, youre making the argument and im glad you did. There is a lot of room left to squeeze and theyre not nearly done if we want to ratchet them down now. Were coming up on a break soon. Sanctions are twoway street. Id like to get maybe a minute. What you think north korea wants from this entire confrontation. Do they want out from under sanctions . To they want room to rebuild the economy . What do they want . Regime survival. Firstly they need a nuclear deterrent. Then they want to develop the economy. They have to develop the economy so that the people see rising standard of living. Thats what its about regime survival. I dont have anything to add on that point but i do want to reiterate that the u. S. Intelligence committee assesses there is no amount of pressure that would get him to give up his weapons. In a meet the press interview a couple months ago, the question is we now have a tougher set of sanctions and that may be th