[inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] good afternoon. And its a great pleasure to welcome you to our conference in argentina this afternoon. For any student of latin america, argentina plays an Important Role in the hemisphere and beyond. The perrone phenomenon, colluding erodes companion [inaudible] when discussing argentine and the critical pre and postworld war ii. The same is true concerning the most recent Political Developments of that nation. Drama is not really gone, judging by the strength continues to play to some extent in electro events. This story is more complex and looking at attempts to elevate herself or demean herself drama over her government. At one time the cart perspectives of president macri. Undoubtedly argentina requires historians and political analysts [inaudible] we are very fortunate to have a friend, true panels with a great and reputation. No better than my esteemed friend, hector shamis, will share with us his ideas on argentina, including the but also the future. Before we begin the lecture, i will take two minutes to extend a warm welcome to a very good friend, an old friend of mine, and one of the founders of hudson, professor max who resides in israel, what, he comes to visit as once in a while. Thank you, max. I also need to express our thanks to doctor walters, Vice President of the organization who has been such a great supporter and a great friend to us. And, of course, we think very much rachel cox, our director of public affairs, and my assistant what was . Now, well, without further ado i turn the audience the hector shamis. Thank you. Well, thank you for inviting me or your kind words and your friendship over the years. Every time ive been here it was rewarding and extremely motivating and provocative discussion. And today jaime invited me to discuss my own country, which is, you know, double challenge. Its nice and motivating but at the same time its like, you know, we have the task. Given that i do go to argentina frequently, im very involved as a columnist in addition to my georgetown job. I have a column, and once in a while i do address argentina. I do write on argentina. Although a lot less than venezuela, i must say, for reasons that we all know. Its interesting, and interesting label or session as a new political order in argentina. Thats really pushing the boundaries. I mean, i would agree with a new party system in the making, not necessarily a new political order because argentina has been democratic since 1983, and has, i must say, quite fortunately dribbled some important crisis along the way. And there is democracy to say for the foreseeable future. In that sense im very argentina the way i read the politics, im optimistic. To be optimistic. Ive been writing very optimistic pieces on argentina for quite a while actually. Beginning with the crisis of 20012002, if you want to know, i i wrote a journal of democracy article the night of january 1, 2001, when the six president in a week with one into office. And after the resignation. That was an optimistic story which for any similar crisis like that in the past i wouldve been going to downtown one side and take over. Congress was open for a marathon session that day to resolve the crisis in which agreement between the senators, they agreed to swear in the president , for good or bad, the crisis was weathered. So let me go back to specifics, was going on in argentina now, what is pro, what is macri presidency. Let me go back and forth in time. Let me start with what i know is an anecdote. I wasnt going to say the night of november 22, 2015, 15, that was the election that brought Maurico Macri to the presidency. And that night i wrote a column. I was in a bunker as they say until away way late, but i wenk to where i was staying and i wrote a column for the middle of the night. It was there that virtually during the Morning Hours in madrid, but you know, latenight this side of the atlantic. The title was the new republic in argentina. A new republic because it was the beginning of a new political time. A new republic in the metaphor of the way many countries do it when theres significant change in the political system, like france or brazil, the americas. When there is a significant institutional change and there is not necessarily a change of regime but there is a new republic, a republic that starts to operate under different sets of mechanisms and incentives. And i said that it was a new republic for a variety of reasons right there that night. First, Maurico Macri was that night and is the first president in a center that is not a radical, from the radical party, or military. And that was what happened that night. It was what sons of american politics would know as a critical election, paraphrasing, those elections reorganized the coalition gained on the territory. And i saw that right there and i was looking at the projected results on the tvs and those beautiful maps that tells you in a snapchat whats going to happen. Whenever theres an election, the u. S. , the for sale look at is the met. Not of the map by state but the map by counties. That tells you what american politics are all about. And i tried to do the same and argentina. The right already there the night of that election it was suggesting that we know better now, which is that it was a critical election. There was a real reorientation in electric. It was the emergence of a new Political Party, republican proposal. And little by little the map started to turn yellow in the cities. Now its all the more clear, the last election, congressional election, Midterm Election two weeks ago. But even that night the emergence of these coalition with the radical party, the historical radical party, was beginning to show in dramatic event thats in the urban areas of argentina. Specifically pro, even more than a radical party. A party that was expressing from in the middle of the country and, of course, the side but also the biggest cities in argentina are in the middle of the country all the way to the east, you name it, and the important cities in the province of buenos aires, was leading significantly, confidently in all the urban settings. And then playing a little bit with that i began to speculate sort of in the column, particularly on a number of issues about what was going on there with the critical election with this new republic. First of all, a couple of things. Its a new Political Party not just because it was found in ie 21st century. Thats an interesting thing. The news Political Party, prois the first party of the 21st century to come to office in, all over latin america. When i say this, i say this was sort of with a degree of uncertainty in terms of what form will Political Parties, what would be the shape of Political Parties in the future, knowing that we are in a dilemma, in a democracy in the world in general. We cant do without parties but we also know that parties are in trouble. Parties are organizations that do not represent aspirations of societies in the same way they used to. Aspirations that a change dramatically, and the parties are very hierarchical structured organizations, very disciplined organizations, and that doesnt work in society these days. They become more horizontal. It does not work in the workplace. Doesnt work in politics either. Pro comes to the scene with a new conception of a Political Party. More like, more like a social movement that a Political Party in the traditional sense here its a party with a horizontal political culture, if you may. If i may. Its the party of the crisis of 20012002 sent argentines to the street. The people went to the streets demanding everybodys resignation, everybody meeting the political elite. Everybodys departure. They meaning the political elite. And that was the origin of pro created in the wake of that important crisis. The urban component of pro makes it the party of the middle class. Not only the middle class but the party of the middle class, the party of the middle income, upward, mobile and progressive electorate. The party of the professionals that argentina is a very urbanized country, as much as the taxi drivers. The party of the median voter, if i may use, you know, the famous expression. The party of that wide middle ground. The party of the pragmatic and moderate voter that has a middleclass component and has aspirations of upward mobility. For themselves and for their children, more than anybody else. Its a pattern that i saw emerging in 2015 and this past october consolidated that people now have an expression in argentina the yellow map, which is yellow is the color of fraud, distinctive, a front and the map is turning yellow again in urban centers all over the country, and that allowed the party to carry important provinces. The vast majority of the provinces. So again let me play back and forth can continue going back and forth between 715 and 717. Pro is also the party of the. [inaudible] in both ways. In the famous phrase social origins, no one would say no to democracy. And is the party in the sense [inaudible] the upper income, the upper social strata of society massively voted for pro, for cambiemos, the coalition, and massively participate in politics today, in the politics of their coalition. And that is in a way the hypothesis is they play in original [inaudible] since 1930 the average social strata abandon Democratic Politics to play politics with the military. Its an ongoing argument that the most prominent of argentina have developed way back, when they dont play politics, Democratic Politics, and stifling politics with the military institution, and turns the military institution as it Political Party, the result will be serious instantly to democracy and much that is an argument that fits the story very well. And that was in many ways another unresolved issue. The upper social strata, the Business Elite didnt participate in the Democratic Politics as strongly and as convinced, with the conviction that group has today. And thats good news. Thats good news for the Institution Stability of the democratic system. Another discussion in argentina, and i know kramer want to be just a couple things about pro, in certain political groups in argentina, pro is considered a right of the conservative party. In some ways it is, in terms of representation of the social strata of the group. But in another sense, its a way removed from any form of conservatism. I think in many ways pro picks up two important trends in argentine history, and recent argentine history. First, the coalition picks up concerns with constitutional democracy. After the military regime, who campaigned reading the preamble of the constitution. And you should talk about things that sounded weird for argentines, like constitutional checks and balances, and separation of powers. And there was this campaign, and made a difference, a change to some extent, the grammar of politics in argentine. Pro and cambiemos take that up and takes a foreword very strongly. The concern just with the method for choosing a government, right, like the old argument, democracy is a method of getting to power, and its also about exercising our once you are there. And in the streets, the Current Coalition in power takes that up. Democracy is a mechanism for electing a government, and democracy is a series of mechanism for determining how power must be exercised. And again with separation of powers, with checks and balances, with limited terms in office, et cetera, et cetera. Pro also picks up on a previous important trend in argentine history, which is from this is development. President in the late 50s and early 60s, there was a president had a project for argentina. Energy, developing energy resources, developing infrastructure and signing center roads to the state to develop both important areas. Energy autonomy and Infrastructure Development in order to foster economic growth, rapid economic growth. The coalition picks up that as well. So its constitutional democracy with a central role of state in the economy. Now, not as a producer but a propeller of economic growth, the infrastructure. All these trends i argue got consolidated in the recent election, as i said. Both august and october, a wed electoral system and it has a mandatory primary, open primary, which have been in august, and then the real Midterm Election which took place in october. And that marks perhaps definite of argentines system, a cycle that eventually continued in 2019, the next president ial election cycle. A couple of important things happened. First, now cambiemos will have a majority in the house, not innocent but will have majority in the house after this next election. For all the coalition controls the majority of the provinces, and very important changes in terms of the conversation of the other parties outside of cambiemos couple of things that are want to mention about the new political order of argentina. Number one, the end of bipartisanship, a system that was bipartisan since the return in 1983 with the two historical parties. And the radical party now has a third player in a coalition with one of them. But as the majority partner in the coalition at the same time, pro is a majority partner, not the radical party. So this change in the party system in argentina makes it look a little bit like there are two options. A little bit like chile is a in the future, chile and the transition, the alliance is in the left in the christian democrats, later on change, change slightly but id like to see the political system in argentina very similar, and i think does look very similar to the early transition, years, the 31st president s in chile. With two parties in coalition and another party outside. A formula that worked very well and that provided stability and a provided all the tools necessary for smooth transition as possible. And in those years people tend to forget how unstable chile was in the early 90s and how uncertain that transition was. Another option for argentina in order to keep in the neighborhood is that coalition doesnt continue near future and the parties whose coalitions may or may not last, i think if we have a three party system, then we look a little bit like uruguay in which the center, the traditional by party system [inaudible] changed with the emergence, with the left he coming viable electorally and having had now three consecutive president s. And this is quite interesting because we know that winter is a change in Political Parties, in the Political Party system, theres a stability generally and oftentimes deep conflict. Its interesting because it happened without any conflict, erasers conflict, without any stability. And its been working quite well. Well. Thats a possibly for argentina as well, sort of going the chile way with the continuation of the coalitions, and without the continuation of the coalition, without the three party system. And several other minor parties around these three big traditional and historical political forces. I predict the coalition will continue because both parties, the radical party and the pro will maintain it. I think its the most effective mechanism to governing what we call in physical Science Coalition president ially some. The president ial institution is an american invention but it is an american invention that relies on a twoparty system. After all experts, you know, in political science, thats the way president ial institution works. It doesnt work well when you have a multiparty party system and were having in latin america a discussion for the last 30 years that lisa whether we should go for even with multiparty systems in all the countries of latin america. And moreover, not only we have multiparty system but those systems have become more and more fragmented since the transition of the 80s. And so how do we govern democracy with the president ial institution and with a fragmented party system, and recently new ideas have been developed and have worked quite well. What we call Coalition President ially some. A president that creates a coalition and with certain institutional tools providing incentives to make the president ial system a little more if you want. The french system is one of that and all latin american countries have different system. They will go around electoral system. Whats going to happen in chile now is the key candidates that will go for second round of going to start making their own coalition, or gathers the most, the stronger support will be elected president. In a way thats the front System Incorporated the institution is a good idea. It makes the system more governable. I think that for those reasons the coalition will continue. Think about peru, for example, by the way, or chile itself or brazil. In peru since, no president has had elementary majority. And they managed to whether the opposition quite well. The room has been stable peru gdp deficient has combat and all of that while in a divided government. All of that with strong incentives to create this parliamentary, this congressional coalitions to be able to go. And no president , neither [inaudible] you go back to the post fujimori years, Coalition President ialism may prove quite stable. And with good economic policymaking by the way, very effective economic policymaking. For those reasons, i think the argentina will continue with this new political system, and less unless something happens come something dramatic happens in the next few years i cant foresee cambiemos winning the president ial election in 2019. Most likely with macri ready for second term. Also keep in mind, another interesting aspect of pro, contrast that with the chile to make an argument. Pro is very, many residential scum not just macri. Its a young party. Its a party that has brought a renewal of political needs to argentina. Something many countries in latin america are struggling with, chile among them, right . After her second term, if she got elected will be a second term was original a candidate also would have been a second term on the side come on the left. Participat