Good morning, yall. Thank you for coming out to the perhaps most timely and serious and important of the sessions youll hear at the seventh Texas Tribune festival. By this i mean the deadly serious topic of President Trump and his views on professional athletes. [laughter] hold on. My bad. Im sorry. Trump and National Security. Evan was unclear when we spoke. I just checked twitter and thought im happy to say that this paneled board bid the lbj school of public afirefighters here at the university of texas. Thank you to dean evans for that sponsorship. Im dutybound to remind the audience our sponsors, we love them but they dont get to choose which what question is ask or what answers the panelists offer. We at that time caveat out of the way, let me tell you who i am. Your host and moderator, professor bobby chessny from ut austin. The cofounder of the nations leading source for online commentary from experts on National Security law issues and also cohost of the creatively named National Security law podcast, which is basically car talk mashed with crossfire and reaction to weekly National Security news. Do with nat what you will. We have one hour divided into 40 minutes discussion amongst our panelists and then 20 minutes of discussion we you. So us a your listening and reacting either there are topic wiz against get, you can raise them. Followups. I will ask and remind you at the time when the microphone goes owl and i open the floor, please deep menz brief keep this as questions, questions brief and make shower enough of you get to talk as possible. Lastly, please silence your phones but dont necessarily put them away. We would be thrilled if you would join the conversation online, on twitter, using the hash tag, tribfest 17. If ill looking at your phone i trust you are not looking at your email but your commenting on what we have simpled identity lied to introduce my represent advertise. Joaquin castro, representing [applause] representing my home town, san antonio in the 20th 20th district. Hes a stafford grad who went on to harvard law and then after a successful run in private practice, entered the texas log and had five terms and now in washington in congress, serve thing House Permanent Select Committee on intelligence and the House Foreign Affairs committee, representative castro, great too have you here in austin. Dr. Kathleen hicks to my right. Senior Vice President nor center for Strategic International studies in washington where she also holds the Martin Luther king chair. She had king Henry Kissinger chair. She is welcome to the campus. Thank you very minute. On the edge, representative will hurt from the 23rd district. [applause] raft rafter at a m the student body president. A tremendous accomplishment. He joined the cia and served for many years overseas as a Clandestine Service officer, then a Cyber Security firm and then news congress, on house, representative hurd, nice have you on campus and last but not least, the one and only mr. Malcolm nance who had an amazing capacity for language and a desire to serve his country and realized both of those talents and ambitions in serving our anywayy and special glaze intelligence and crip tollingic matters and has been continuing to serve from the private sector through a variety of training and other forms of service to our intelligence and military communities, and then emerging as ally influential contributor to our National Dialogue to his media appearances and recent books, in 2016 i think they were both 2016 a become on the Islamic State and the struggle against i and a become on russian hacking of the election. Speak offering that back, if you took around the Texas Union Building behind us here, after the panel, into into the community hub, mr. Nance will be there shines book and i highly recommend that to you. [applause] lets dive right in and we have identified series of topics that well not be comprehensive but touch on our most pressing champ lengths as a nation itch want to begin with north korea. North Koreas Nuclear and missile programs are evolving rapidly despite our best efforts to disrupt hem. Sanctions, both from our government system and from the u. N. System have followed and have increasesly tightened, including over the past week or so and most notably threats, colorful threat, military threats, exchanging back and forth. A frightening time in many respected. One possibility is its simple play bad hand that must be played as well as can be played, perhaps President Trump is playing is at well as it can be played or perhaps its a bad hand and being mishanded. Congressman, castro, ill start with you. What is your perspective on the north korea situation. Its obviously the most volatile National Security situation that were dealing with right now. I think given the administration and the president a lot of credit for going the ewan ewan and marshaling the world to place the tightest restrictions, sanctions on north korea that north korea has ever debt with, and so i believe that our best course for cutting short their nuclear program, deliver is one, is to basically do everything we can to bring them to the table to choke their economy as much as possible. We have signaled to china that we expect their cooperation. But i also think the president needs to take the fight off of twitter. Right now you see back and forth between what is a young dictator in his early 30s and the president of the United States in public statements thats have gotten more and more heated. Think thats counterproductive. I dont think its getting us anywhere. Folks have been on different sides of the issue. Some folks argue for military strike but realize at this point itself youre arguing for military strike, youre arguing to strike a country that has Nuclear Weapons. The only thing at that time were unsure is how far they can fire the Nuclear Weapons. So that makes the situation especially tricky. I do think the best course of action is a diplomatic one, despite the failure of the sixparty talks years ago, and the fact that for years our strategy with north korea was not really diplomacy, it was isolation. And we have to figure out a way to get them to the table. Dr. Hicks. I defer flit want to underscore the congressmans point about the game of Nuclear Chicken on twitter. Dont think thats helpful for either party. The risk of miscalculation to in terms of impacts immigrant can have north just because of the Nuclear Weapons, north korea is already quite dangerous even if you put accede the newark clear weapons piece, its tremendous and not worth it. Not worth it for the manliness show going on between the two gentlemen, shall we say. That is not helpful. Think that the president pride himself on unpredictability as a centerpiece how he thinks of his Foreign Policy and how the taught of himself as a substanceman in terms of gaining advantage. When you look at Foreign Policy, unpredictability on this level is extremely destabilizing. Could there be a small chance of success by doing a mad man theory and being contracts . I suppose there could be but the downside risk,s are tremendous for the American People, for our soldier, sailors, airmen and marines in south korea and the hundreds of thousands of americans who live in south korea. Mr. Nance, let me invite you to join this topic. Sure. Im not a korean expert. But i am a war fighter, and ive been involved in every military operation since 1983. Every war that we have fought, and i have been under sustained article article tillry bombard. The game of chicken being place in ward as the doctor says, has human consequences and its real world consequences and those open the intelligence community, like representative hurd and i understand that when you say and do something, your opponent has an opportunity to respond. Right now were responding with trolling. And donald trump is trolling a country which has spent 64 years perfecting trolls. Right . Perfecting their commentary but this can quickly escalate out of control. The problem that we have now is that this year and i was on a panel with jd dion earlier this year and i couldnt actually believe that people were discussing the viability of attacking north korea potentially with atomic weapons or even conventional weapons. If that were to happen, first off week would become a global pariah instantly. Secondly, 14,000 tube offered artillery that have been buried into the ground for over six decade will rain high explosive nerve gas, mustard gas, all over the Demilitarized Zone and the city of seoul where 10 mental people live and endanger over 40 Million People instantly and thats if we find out that the United States doesnt choose to use what call the 35 minute solution. Thats when the president decides to launch a minute man one mill. In 35 minutes from go, it will impact in north korea. And decimate however many Million People. These are options we shouldnt be discussing right now. We should be discussing six month paid family leave. Were having a baby. [applause] my problem with the as, again, an intel jess war fighter in the media, its being discussed as if its possible. And the use of Nuclear Weapons is off the table. Every president since trumpan truman have understand these are not toys and now that we need deterrence north korea is a nuclear player forks matter how you slice it. If we keep pushing them they may have to make a demonstration of their power and im afraid of something i predict lead to months ago, they would surface detonate an atomic bomb with video cameras running to prove to the world that they are Nuclear Power and not to be messed with two days ago the foreign minister of north korea threatened that. So were in a situation where war fighters like me, who are out on the front lines, their families, 25 Million People in the immediate thousand mile area of north korea, we are betting their lives on this dangerous tweeting rhetoric and the president needs to ratchet it back and his three generals named to gain control of the telephone. [applause] a lot of opinions here about i think aberdeen would agree a diplomatic answer is the dui go nobody would have thought that russia and china would agree with the United States at then United Nations. The fact this week china has directed its central bank to stop doing business with any china entity working with the North Koreans. Significant diplomatic achievement in order to ultimately resolve this. Ive always said, twitter tweets are not policy. But we are not the rhetoric is not what is pushing kim jongun to develop Nuclear Weapons. He has been on this path for a long time. Kim jongun is interested in one thing and one thing only, staying in power him believes that the only way he can stay in power is by doing what his father and his grandfather this, first leader, kim ilsung, could not do and that is getting Nuclear Weapons. Kim jongun also has a legitimacy issue. His mother was not his fathers wife. Let that sink. In like a monarchy. He had to kill his uncle because he had more of a direct line to the first leader. This why the used the nerve agent in a public place to kill his half brother in order so solidify his position in what we the will we, we next United States in our alis do we of the change kim jonguns calculation that the pursuit of nuclear windfill will prevent him from staying in power. Thats the only way we get him to stop doing that. Hard to do but we also have to be prepared, one thing learned from my nine and a half years in the back alleys of plays laing indiana, pakistan, afghanistan, be tough with tough guys and nice with nice guys and we have to be prepared when theres another test to it should it down. Hey have to be prepared to defend our allies. When kim jongun is shooting missiles over japan. The changes the calculation. There are coulding theres to do to take defensive measures against his global threat. This is an opportunity for us to potentially do military exercises with china because if something happened in north korea, theres going to be three million refugees, north korean refugee on chinas border and the chinese dont want to see that happen. So this could actually be an opportunity for us to have the chinese realize that a u. S. South koreay pan alliance is not a threat to them as much as a destablized north korea. If enwhen you look at everything in magged from secretary mattis to hr mcmatter talking about this needs to be solved diplomatically but we have to be prepared to defend our allies and not just the millions of folks in seoul, but we have hundreds of thousands thousands. Men and women on there as well, too. China came up several ties. The mutual not a do dosin china are its a deeply complex web of interests, some complimently, some competitive. Economic ties but we have trade tensions. Its more than i think any other world leader, how is the president doing . First of all i applied i dont know if you notice the pivot to china, that has been the basic approach of the administration under that name or others for multiple past administrations. There has better deficits on china the recognition that there the second largest economy growing a military might pressure and great economic potential both as a market and a trader with much of the world. There is no administration in the United States couldnt ignore china to treat them as a key to how you deal with the revolving world order is key. To the stent President Trump has done that its a good thing. They are struggling internally between those who have been here who look at china primarily through the lens of the great threat that needs to be stamped out through any means necessary. I dont beat believe the war between the United States and chinas inevitable, but we need to carefully manage that relationship. Ramping up the rhetoric it unnecessarily on the economic side is not helpful given the strong oral and positive role china can play in areas like north korea. Security said theres no question they are our greatest military child. Theres areas where russia is more important challenge. This is going to the point where they can credibly threaten to close access around china. Its really military problem for us in terms of protecting our allies in defending her interest. We dont want them to do that. We want to get up our own capabilities to deter the and fight credibly through that but we want to work to make sure that the security tensions that are very real to not overextend the on this larger nation and economic goals that we share. Can i ask you to weigh in . The only thing i want to comment on is how the United States since january decided that we are just going to heat all former u. S. Power that we had whether the Transpacific Partnership or trade agreements, we just decided to give it to them in the guise of protecting American Interest to make can great. We look at the Transpacific Partnership we have decided china will be the principal economic failure for every nation of the United States will go and try to do oneonone trade agreements with all of these nations. Its enough to turn the manufacturing over to china over the next two decades but now giving them this power over us is not good business. Doesnt make sense the United States would yield its last bit of every leverage and the ability to sell lower and cheaper on the market than china itself that we would give that up. I dont understand that. I look at the relationship is for enemies. The u. S. And china. Its a broad and deep relationship that you cannot look at one topic does not define the entire relationship. So trying to look at the broader bilateral relationship through one lens you cannot do it. It seems it feels like President Trump and the chinese president have talk more in these last nine months than any other point in times of be surprised if their tech buddies. My point earlier about the fact that chinas taking steps with their own economy to deal with north korea these are signs important to that relationship. But we have broader economic troubles, economic espionage in the United States that needs to stop. The chinese version of amazon, ali baba and the United States is treated as an american company. But amazon in china is not treated as a chinese company. Its ultimately a problem. When you look at how chinas doing investments in emerging technology in the United States in order to get a toehold in important industry thats a significant problem. The relationship is Strong Enough to deal with individual problems while working on major issues like north korea. We will see this play out in the nafta negotiations