Transcripts For CSPAN2 19th Chinese Communist Party Conferen

Transcripts For CSPAN2 19th Chinese Communist Party Conference Policy Preview 20171007

Behalf of carnegie today to host a pair of panels that include some of the people i admireof the most in the field of contemporary china studies. Wery at carnegie, and throughout the community have had tremendous admiration for the leadership and the production which is organized by alice muller at the Hoover Institution at stanford university. They have established a tremendous record for hearing the facts as opposed to trends and feelings and moods and things like that. Whenever you want to touch base with reality, i recommend you go and do precisely that. Today will give you ahe whitmans sampler of their writings in the form of presentations looking had to the very short time from now. We have it broken into two panels, the first one will be thewi people w you see here. I will moderate. Michael and alan has been regular contributors as well as to many other contributions in the field. They will speak for the first. Until 1045. James was here a moment ago and has been called away i have family emergency. We wish him well as hes having to manage this morning. Id wanted to mention, as we look around the room, you may see no one here working for the brookings institution. That is not a protest for they been called to a mandatory retreat and they would love to be here with us as well. Id like to get started and the order we have thank you very much. Its great to be part of this effort. Ive been writing for, i dont know, how long. 152 years. Sometimes it seems like that. Yes, its a tough job. Its a very demanding schedule. The deadlines are really harsh. Its been a pleasure writing. My topic has been form policy, and i have usually focused on trying to dig deep into the views in the open media on form policy b issues distinguishing between authoritative and non authoritative because so often in narratives and discussions about chinese policies, observers completely ignore what the government says in authoritative way and all manner of others. Sort of jumping altogether as if they represent chinese views. They do in some sense but they certainly dont in the sense of the authoritative views. What i would like to do is speak a little bit about the form policy themes, continuities and changes and policy initiatives that we might see coming up later this month. Party congresses are usually not occasions for getting into the details of form policy. Most people focus on them and we will see that today with implications to leadership changes in broad nationally policy direction, but they do Say Something about form policy that some very important things. What ivead done is ive taken a look at the 17th and 18th Party Congress since the last, since 2012. Ill make comments in which they usually cover in terms of form policy. The first is general statementsts on the Global Environment that has an impact on form policy. These are statements in the world and it has implications. I think they will continue to stress, a generally stable environment and peace and development of the time. I think youll see that can be highlighted. The statement has always been paired with more negative concerns about the international environment. Those in the past have been called power politics, local conflicts, hotspot issues that keep emerging. Imbalances in the World Economy which may be worsening and then of course traditional and nontraditional securityy threats. You will see references to these factors as well. Theres also been a reference in the past to something called neo interventionism. That has been the tendency for states to intervene in the internal affairs of other state states. This was prompted really for or highlighted in the first Party Congress and it came about because of libya and syria with outside powers. This might not be as prominent in this party because you havent had as many new examples of this unless you talk about the possibility and the fear of usled intervention in north korea. T isi doubt that would be likely tohe be mentioned or cause because its usually occurred after development. It is possible, i suppose. Now, in addition to these concerns that weve seen before, bot both positive and negative, i think they will alsom highlight more recent potential threats to what it sees as peace and growing stability, growth in the international system. That will be this idea of growing imbalances in Economic Development and more importantly, what is seen as the troubling backlash against greater global integration and the forces of globalization but this is a a theme that has been struck by chinese leaders in recent years that has become increasingly prominent. In beijing, they will likely present themselves as a strong opponent of a trend toward protectionism and a proponent of greater economic integration and freetrade which have become, as i say, a theme since the election of donald trump and the rise of similar me first nationalism or nationalist movements in e europe. Just to highlight this, just last month they said we live in a world that is witnessing profound changes in the International Landscape and the balance ofsm h power. Prominent, traditional and non traditional threats and a growing backlash against globalization. There are unprecedented challenges forul mankind pursuit of lasting peace inin Sustainable Development but i wouldnt be surprised if some variation of the statement appears in a Party Congress statement. A second area, getting more to the issue ofw chinese policy, in other words how does china deal with this environment, i think youin will see again in the Party Congress, central focus in all realms on following through the objectives for china which is, as we probably all know in this room, a moderately Prosperous Society by 2021. This was ratified in 2002, reaffirmed to the 17th Party Congress in 2007 and reaffirmed yet againin in 2012. The second is the construction of a strong democratic civilized harmonious and modern socialist country by 2049. The centenary of the formatione. These two things have continued to be basic statements about chinese avobjectives. I think these will be couched within the context of the china dream which is the personal concept of regionalization. That will have a prominent place, i would imagine. It hold high the banner of peace, cooperation, mutual benefit, independent form policy following a winwin strategy for countries opening up sustainable balance, growth et cetera. You also here, i think new type of power relation. Some have thought recently that these slogans have been deemphasized somewhat in chinese leaders statements. I doubt however they will be lacking. I think theres still a major element of chinastr view toward dealing with the United States in developing countries, particularly neighboring countries. I think most notably they will see chinas need to firmly uphold the territorial sovereignty, maritime rights and national unity. This of course refers to its disputes with its neighbors around its periphery, in the maritime area that come more direct in recent years. Again, from a recent speech, in this case by. [inaudible] in july on the issue where he lyated china must unequivocally make clear its position on taiwan, the South China Sea and other issues concerning chinas major court interest. We have drawn a clear line of what is acceptable and acted forcefully to defend our court interest as well as our legitimate right. The emphasis on this issue remains. I think very much it will be reflected in the Party Congress statement. It reflects the larger emphasis by the regime which began, the defense of stability and the advancement of peace and stability alongside the protection of chinas rights and interests. Using chinas greater influence to advance those interests. At the same time, i think there will be efforts to emphasize multilateral diplomacy as have occurred in the recent Party Congress in the idea of reforming Global Governance which has also been a theme in past congress meetings. In the defense and security rounds in particular, i think youll probably hear the phrase which was again made after the 18 Party Congress on a search for a common comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security. In this regard you might hear the placement of the party the three principles dealing with hot issues. It imposes solutions on others. Its kind of a dig at the trumpp Administration Even though it predates that administration and adherence to political settlement and opposition to the use of force. I think regarding military policies in particular, the 19th Party Congress will reiterate the 18th a Party Congress unprecedented statement about the function of chinas military and military modernization were set a Strong National defense is commensurate with the National Standing and meets the needs of its security and the Chinese Military needs to take a more active role in the international and political roles. This oversees and is a theme that i think will continue into this Party Congress. It will also be a repetition of the emphasis on both maritime space and cyberspace security which is also occurred in the past Party Congress. The reference to cyberspace was unprecedented in the 18 Party Congress work report and also that of space in the context of security. In of course, i think that will be a repetition of the concept, the objective that it to build itself into a maritime power. Finally no details are provided the one belt one road for sure will appear. The improving relationship with countries which was a major theme since the key meaning of the 18 Party Congress could appear again, increasing involvement in a range of Multi Lateral events, including ones that china will organize and host, promote the views, especially on Global Governance issues could get a reference there. An interesting question is whether or not it will mention final russian relations and the Nuclear Crisis in particular. Im not sure about either of those. Russian relations has barely been mentioned in the past. They might be mentioned. The Nuclear Crisis in particular, i somewhat doubt unless its placed in the context of these hotspot issue statements that i said before. In any case, what i see are probably a lot of continuities with some creative emphasis on globalization, et cetera and free trade open market non protectionism. The real question in foreign and defense policy is not so much what policies will be struck in the 19 Party Congress in the following National Peoples congress in the spring of 2018, but whether a stronger, more dominant president will emerge to determine a more assertive or confrontational china on issues such as maritime disputes, u. S. Military activities in asia, taiwan and possibly even north korea. I dont subscribe to the view that its primary of autocrat most concerned with pushing the u. S. Out of asia as some observers think. Yes he wants china to be more effectively using its growing presence and influence internationally to promote its National Development and security interest, as ive said, but the chinese leadership in my view continue to recognize the imperative for china to maintain relatively positive cooperative relations with u. S. And the wes west. Like it or not, china is integrating into the Global Economy and the global regime and highly adverse to major shifts in the regional or global order that could threaten its continued stability and prosperity such as a confrontation with the u. S. The chinese leadership alson know they have yet to make a stable transition to a new normal of growth rates to more equitable and just Society Living standards and lower living of corruption. I tend to agree with those who argue that in order to obtain these very difficult goals, china must carry through the domestic environment for years to come. Ma it would be foolish in my view for china to transition into a highly aggressive transportation will posture after the 19th Party Congress. This doesnt include the possibility of greater tension for the u. S. , its allies and other asian stateses in particula particular. In fact, over time, i think this is probably likely, as i have argued elsewhere. This will require, in my view, new approaches to Regional Security and more extensive cbms than we have yet seen, hopefully leading to a stable balance of power eventually across the region. W u. S. Policy needs a strategy to deal with the changing situation and we havent seen one yet. I will stop there. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. I guess we got in early. [inaudible] when President Trump and his entourage arrived in beijingngof very shortly after the congress but there was a lot of buzz that its going to be a more aggressive or less aggressive phase. This audience will have lots of good questions and challenges. Next we will turn to alan. He has written the bible on contemporary u. S. Taiwan relations. He is keeper of chapter and verse on what happens in taiwan. I recommend. This is a really superb look and brea very granular detail of what has been going on in taiwans relation with the west detail in whats going on in taiwans rel me despite all and of the issues , the congress will be focused on domestic issues as well as economic. Antione has been limited in the congress itself to half a paragraph the heather have been in hong kong and and i would be surprised if there were any greater formal attention also those briefings that go along in those press briefings but i do nazi basically a sharp departure from that practice but my own view is that basically we have what is a classic Irresistible Force and that beijing has chosen and i am not entirely sure why, chosen to focus whether under the 1982 consensus and we know from several years of conversation that is in that particular formulation that is so critical but what they call the core connotation. Anded he has not done that but in my view has conducted policy in a way which is not inconsistent traditionally viewed as of one china approach. If you go back and look it was a different story but basically since she became a candidate for president a lot of the rhetoric surrounded her has fallen away. I dont think that principle concern has changed despite the polls that show there is limited support based on what i consider the most reliable either now or to maintain the status quo nevertheless we feel if we will go up tomorrow morning then be my guest. There would not be a uniform deal but this would not happen and i think they know this and that is why we see the i polls show to maintain the status quo. Theyey looked aside with great suspicion and that really points do not the declaration of independence although some day be concerned with the appointments of certain justices budget is covert or soft that they are concerned about them is the focus of the policies been cutting off contact data authoritative levels. There is still a lot of communication the coming out of this congress with a significant tightening up i dont think so. Unless there is some movement particularly starting in channel negotiations i dont see a likelihoodod this will produce major change in the direction of policy. If you go back one year or more there was a hope that there would be in a position and with ways to address a of a stalemate. And then to find a way around it but my sense is that to have defense information and that the statements coming out of beijing and does not suggest it will be easy after congress. Ng end not to push for unification in a time frame although with the second 100 years in the country that is unified under that heading a number of people if they think they could achieve it by then if that is a real change from the second panel but to put a great deal of emphasis on china and i am trying to have that exceptions of china in whatever way. It has to be something to scratch the itch with those are in direct rays to do that but despite their suspicions in to undermine stability through covert cultural independence. I could say three reses said you could come up with more but why make a the problem harder . There is backlash to thosehe punishments to dismiss that term. The coz tour except that common political foundation. Second, focusing on than i want is a major fashion to distract the leadership from those that are clearly a more urgent in the current scheme of things more important. I think bay view taiwan in a very different context from Foreign Policy issues and domestic issues. They dont have that save necessity of imposing a discipline on their relationship so as long as they dont lose ground and it isnt a reversal then they feel they have time it is becoming more urgent and i will discuss that in a minute but not worth distracting from not the more important issues. And finally its i explore in the book tie one was the obstacle and only through acceptance of those terms that we were able to move ahead and and learning from our friends that tie one is important. That doesnt mean today but if something goes wrong in time one taiwans that could set those relations on a negative track and i would argue and have argued for years it is the only issue at the end of the day has the potential to have the u. S. A. And prc to come into actual conflict bilateral is still a possibility. And then those congress documents surrounding those briefings to talk about family and the premier.

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