Row seat to democracy. Aaron david miller is with the caron get endowment of International Peace, serves as their senior fellow, thank you for being here. Months complicated the issue . Guest three october seven, the israelipalestinian issue had reached what i call a strategic culdesac. The prospects of significant breakthroughs in pursuit of a conflict ending solution were basically undermined by the absence of leadership by either side and the sheer impossibility of reaching agreement on border security. That this conflict would bring to a settlement of existing claims situation with difficult and fraught well before october 7. Now, weve taken the israelipalestinian conflict to a place its never been before. The traumatic impact of october 7 and and the israeli response is created extraordinary trauma primarily to civilian populations especially in gaza. It has created a sense that when this phase dies down, as it will, israelis and palestinians will not sit with one another. The problem is not that we dont understand one another, the problem is you know each other only too well and if that transpires, i think the future is going to be truly bleak because there will not be any space, any space in order to create what is required first to stop conflict and then somehow to end it to a better pathway of negotiations leading to what i believe is the least worst solution to this conflict and that is separation through negotiation into a palestinian state living in peace and security alongside israel. The processes are slim to say the least. Its clear what happens in gaza also does not stay in gaza because you now have a situation where even though the regional conflict has been somewhat contained over the last six months between israel and hezbollah, we see iranian strikes against u. S. Military and the recent escalation between iran and israel has taken us into new, dangerous and very uncharted waters. Host in the short term, what are possible aftereffects of what we saw a couple of weeks ago concerning iran . Guest there are two or three questions we need to ask that are clear to me. Answering them will be difficult. Has the attacks on one anothers territory which is unprecedented , certainly attacks that were overtly claimed by both sides, unprecedented. Will these attacks lead to a greater Risk Readiness on the part of iran and israel . Could this somehow become the new normal all or turn it to, will this lead both of them to scale back and understand how close they came to the possibility which i think neither of them once frankly and that is taking another step or two of the escalatory letter, something the middle east is never experians before which is a regional war. Number two is the issue of how will each side compensate for the loss of deterrence which i think has been clearly demonstrated by the fact that there was very little compunction in striking the territory. For the iranians, this may well lead to a decision to ramp up their nuclear program. With the israelis have struck iran if tehran had a deliverable Nuclear Weapon . Iran strike israel full well knowing, even though it is not acknowledged by u. S. Officials or the israelis, that israel possesses not one deliverable Nuclear Weapon but quite a few. I think those are the two questions. If in fact there was some mechanism, some deescalation process that would somehow work with both parties and diminish the prospects of conflict, i would feel more sanguine about what the future holds but the reality is the competition is a strategic rivalry. It is a zerosum game in which both parties believe that the stakes are existential in nature. When it comes to those sorts of conflicts, i look at the last 27 years of my experience from the late 70s to the early oughts, 2003 is when i left the state department. When parties in conflict believe their vital interests are at stake, these outside parties are very limited. The middle east is literally littered with remains of great powers who wrongly believed they could impose their dreams and schemes and ambitions on smaller ones. Im afraid. I dont have a whole lot of positive prescriptions either for the israelii must warrant gaza or the regional competition between tehran and jerusalem. Host our guesswork to the state department as a middle east analyst and negotiator and republican and democratic administrations and currently at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace here to take your questions, 202 7488001 for republicans, 202 7488000 for democrats and independents 202 7488002. To the role the u. S. Plays now, what is the best role . Guest the question is what does the United States want to achieve . I think its ending in containing the conflict in six months income i think the Biden Administration finds itself in what i call a strategic culdesac. Its politically weekend, dealing with two parties, the government is israel in the Islamic Resistance of hamas with no urgency now in either side frankly to ending this conflict and is now faced with the prospect of a serious escalation that could without much of my nation without much imagination could go into a war. There may be a lot of leverage on paper. Six months in, the administration for any number of reasons, we can talk about has basically been reluctant to impose what i would describe and what normal humans, lets assume u. N. Me would describe as significant or serious pressure. Thats as far as the israelis are concerned. With respect to hamas, i dont know where the levers start. U. S. Doesnt have any and countries have limited access and they post the hamas external leadership. The architect of the october 7, what his true calculations are, is this and end of days strategy for him in this cosmic world or does he believe that he can survive this using time, tunnels and the tragic situation of hostages. There is the expert initial rise in deaths of palestinians with who had nothing to do with this conflict. 30 or 40 of women and children to which hamas expose them to retaliation to destroy hamas as a political and military organization. Neither israel nor hamas right now are on the cusp of realizing their objectives and that poses a huge problem. I think the administration thought and maybe it Still Believes that it could create the environment for an israelihamas Hostage Exchange that would buy six weeks of quiet, returning 134 hostages, 34 of whom the israelis believe were killed on october 7 and the bodies taken to gaza. That leaves 100 hostages. Even if that deal was consummated, hamas would still retain 50 hostages, almost certainly Israeli Soldiers and male soldiers and male civilians. What they want is a comprehensive ceasefire and withdrawal of the Israeli Forces from gaza but thats clearly not going to happen. I dont see how it will happen. Israel is bent on continuing its campaign to destroy hamas. To be quite honest, i cannot provide you with an rx had to get out of this. I dont think the u. S. Is in a position to use the leverage it has. I think we have very little leverage when it comes to hamas and thats where things stand. Its not encouraging. Host this is our first call from richard in michigan on our independent line. Good morning, go ahead. Caller id like you to confirm and pedro id like you to make a pledge and have the host of cspan, whenever someone says that israel is committing genocide, is a blood libel canard because lets just say 35,000 people were killed, at least half of them were soldiers and fighters and if israel wanted to, they could kill hundreds of thousands of people. Theyve destroyed 50 or 60 of the buildings and only killed that few people, they are either pretty poor aims or they are really not trying to kill everybody. Host thats richard in michigan. Guest the International Court of justice and it will take them another two years if that to rule on the question of whether the israelis are committing genocide in gaza. If genocide there is a definition of it and im not an International Lawyer but i look at the situation. What the israelis done in an effort to destroy hamas as a military organization has involved the deaths of scores of thousands of innocents and yes, the 34,000 of the hamascontrolled ministry of health has calculated includes 1214,000 hamas fighters and combatants. I think this is a just war but i think its been waged with an expansion of israels rules of engagement. I think there is no question about that. Is it genocide . I dont think is genocide. I dont think the israelis willfully determine as the khmer rouge in cambodia where the nazis were in germany fundamentally extinguish socially, culturally politically an entire people . I dont think thats a whats going on. We wouldnt even be having this conversation if october 7 had not occurred. Host sorry. Guest i think these discussions and debates, i understand the emotional impact but frankly in the end, i think they dont deal with the practical reality that in effect we face. Those practicalities are so galactic right now. This conflict shows no prospects between israelis and palestinians of coming to an end and i dont see the mechanism by which that will happen. It certainly will not happen by adjudication in the International Criminal court or court of justice were in the corridors of power. It has to be somehow ameliorated by the influence of parties working with the israelis and key states that have influence over hamas and somehow create another path forward but right now, i refuse to engage in hypothetical discussions of this or that solution. We are sixmonth into the work and we have yet to see a compelling pathway for how both sides get out of it. Frankly, right now, i dont see it nor do i see the International Community which in response to so many examples of mask killing, where do you want to start . The holocaust, cambodia marie wanda rwanda, the international commute including the United States needs to focus the power and intent and motivation to deal with these issues and right now, as we talk about gaza, we are talking about catastrophic levels of violence and starvation in places like sudan. Again, i dont think United States is a potted plant. We can use our influence but right now i dont see how given the circumstances. That includes the political circumstances that will be that wont be terribly effective to end this conflict. Host alan in indiana, democrats line. Caller thank you for having me on. I appreciate washington journal and im a big fan of yours. Much kudos to you and good luck. I have to add some odds with just observati i think this is a simple situation with a very simple solution in the occupation. 76 years and this did not start on october 7. 76 years ago, palestine was invaded and occupied by 200,000 displaced European Jews. Because of our american and british imperialism, it was a protector britain and britain did a lousy job protecting them. We decided to dump the people there because we had no thoughts about palestinians even though we had a ban on European Jews coming to the United States. We didnt want them but we would dump them in palestine. They had a good run for about 76 years just like south africa but its time to end the occupation. The second question i want to ask you, does israel have Nuclear Weapons . I guess we should all know the answer to that because in my mind its yes but if you look at the signing 10 amendment which was created back in the 1950s that said any country that develops Nuclear Weapons will not receive Financial Aid or support from the United States. We should follow our own laws. We are so hypocritical on Foreign Policy. We know they have Nuclear Weapons and we should immediately stop supporting them. Israel does not have the right to exist as they are an invading occupying force. Guest the first question is not a question and not a prescription. This is not one hand clapping. The conflict has existed for decades and we dont have the time nor do i have the inclination to try to unpack and unwind this. Even if i tried, the caller has a clear view of who is to blame. You have two choices in this conflict. I work for 27 years to try to help israelis and palestinians. You can work for your own team and decide one part of the conflict has moral superiority over the other and it is more just than the other side or you can look at this and say it is a conflict as persistent and the consequence of israeli and palestinian behavior but its also a conflict in which both sides have competing needs and requirements that need to be addressed. Thats the basic reality here. As far as Nuclear Weapons, i think i address that in my opening remarks that the government of israel has never declared that it possesses Nuclear Weapons. You wont get a u. S. Official to comment on that. I will give you my opinion that israel has developed Nuclear Weapons. As far as the signing 10 amendment and the notion we should terminate our assistance to any country that has Nuclear Weapons, the fivemember security council, two of our key allies britain and france both possess Nuclear Weapons. So to the indians and the pakistanis. We have relations with both of them. Im not a fan of Nuclear Weapons and i think they shouldnt exist but we but they do. I would argue that it be terrific to figure out how to get rid of them but in the meantime on planet earth, instead of in a galaxy far, far away, we have to figure it had to contain the issue of Nuclear Proliferation and ensure that powers like north korea which has declared Nuclear Weapons and iran which is a Nuclear Weapons threshold state, it has all the elements that are required to actually weaponized should it make a decision to do so, we got to figure out a better way to contain this. Im not terribly optimistic when it comes to looking at the pathway the israelis and iranians seem to be on now with respect to their regional competition. Host we saw the house pass the supplemental package for israel and the senate is set to take it up today. Even in the passage, some democrats voted against and criticized the move. What do you think about the backandforth in congress over this additional aid to israel . Guest i think there is no question that the u. S. Israeli relationship which has been driven over the course of decades by two primary drivers. Number one is value, the notion that israel in the u. S. Share common values and the other is common interests. The u. S. And israel share a high degree of coincidence of interest. Over the last 15 years, there is tremendous stress on both of those. And israel come you have the most extreme government in the history of the state of israel, to ministers who are openly racist. I would call them jewish supremacists and their pursuing policies clearly with respect to the west bank in their annexation everything but name only. There are generational differences now in this country. Congress has become more diverse. You have democrats were calling to openly sanction israel and more than a few mainstream democrats want to impose consequences on israel. Someone who is a support of the u. S. Israeli relationship when the relationship in fact is maintained equitably and doesnt become exclusive, i think it can be used in a way that benefits both the interest of the state of israel and the u. S. But i think its under great stress. 37 House Democrats is my math right . They basically voted against the National Security supplemental with respect to israel. They have legitimate concerns about restricting military assistance to israel. In a different time and under different circumstances, i think the u. S. And israel can sit down and figure out a way to actually win israel off American Military assistance. Its an extremely wealthy country with incredibly high gdp per capita. Its an extraordinary place. It really doesnt need 3. 8 billion per year. We can continue to research the israelis and they can have access to by our high state weaponry but this military creates a dangerous dependency. I think it complicates the relationship. At some point, down the road at some point, there ought to be serious discussions between the two governments about how to reconstruct the better relationship when it comes to the issue of military assistance. I want to make one more point on republicans and democrats. Ive the voted for both. In my judgment, the line for an effective Foreign Policy is not between left and right or liberal and conservative and not between democrats and republicans. Its between dumb on one hand and smart on the other. The only thing matters is what side you want america to be on, the dumb side or the smart side . I believe in the National Interest all my life. The National Interest that transcends partisan politics and Party Affiliation and what you just saw even in our dysfunctional political system with this pernicious polarization, which is on congress over the last several days is an extraordinary demonstration even amidst that dysfunction of a fundamental belief that support for israel, tie ukraine and humanitarian assistance for the palestinians and others was in fact a National Interest of the United States. I think democrats and republicans