Theyll inherit. Tension, issues posed by dprk, china, and interpreting all the signs around the region. Our guests this week, john brennan is perfectly positioned to address this critical and evolving set of issues an we are lucky to have him here today. He needs no introduction but let me go through it. Former director of c. I. A. , former director of former principal advisor assistant to the president for counterterrorism and Homeland Security in the white house to president obama, former director of the National Counterterrorism center, career c. I. A. Officer, arabic speaker and author of the bestselling and i would add having read it myself, very interesting book undaunted my fight against americas enemies at home and abroad, he is someone who sits at the nexus of intelligence, Foreign Policy, at the white house, abroad and at langley, also knows a Little Something about northeast asia, the pride of hudson county, i should also add he holds a masters degree from the university of texas and a b. A. From fordham. The home of the ram, i believe. Welcome, mr. Brennan. Mr. Brennan thank you, its great to be with you and your audience today. Mark vice dean and professor of georgetown, runs the korea chair at the sis, welcome back, victor. R. Cha thanks mark. Mr. Lippert finally, last but not least, former c. I. A. , former n. S. C. , columbia university, currently Senior Advisor here at csis and you overlapped with john at c. I. A. Ever see him in the gift shop . Is a is a lad bar at the lad bar. Is he aware your nickname there was sunesune. That was classified information, thanks a lot. Mark ok, lets get into it. Mr. Brennan, topic one, im going to come to you. Threat picture and transition. Global environment. In the context is your book title as your book title underscores, you spent much of your career focused on threats that the United States faces. O can you walk us through your picture, if you will of the threat environment that this Incoming Administration will face on day one and Going Forward for the first year or so as they set intool the administration . John well, mark, i think the Bidenharris Administration is going to face many challenges and threats an rifpks and risks on day one and throughout the course of the administration. In addition to having to deal with a very, very challenging domestic environment in terms of hyperpartisanship, covid pandemic, as well as the economic dislocation and disruptions associated with that, its going to inherit a world stage that the United States really needs to deal with from day one. I think they have a number of priorities in order to address the real as well as emerging threats that are out there i think high on the agenda is going to be trying to repair some alliances and partnerships, relationships with United States traditional allies and partners around the world. The United States strength on that global stage is derived from those relationships that have been built up over the last 75 years. In addition, i think theyre going to try to have a constructive dialogue with both china and russia. These are wig big, big countries. The Biden Administration will have to deal with that day one. Theyll have to deal with proliferation matters, specifically iran and north korea. These are issues that i know tony blinken and abe sullivan and other members of the National Security team are focused on and will have to deal with early on. Also just reasserting the United States role on that global stage. I think during the Trump Administration there has been a conscious effort to recede from some of those responsibilities and participate in multilat rare multilateral organizations such as the w. H. O. And others. Final finally i think its to deal with some of those more concerning longer term threats that are insidious in tells of the impact on the International Stage which is climate change, cyber, other pandemics thatchan. Dealing with all these issues simultaneously and ensuring proper a of resources and attention dedicated to all of them, again, domestically as well as internationally. Mark excellent stuff. Let me drilled down one level deeper, if you dont mind. We just went through a comprehensive list. Anyone of those issues by themselves would be unbelievable is unbelievably challenging, but, as you mention, they have this whole panoply ahead of them and they have to make some decisions in terms of how to resource allocation. In your role at the white house where you have to straddle the two sides between the domestic and international, and or your agency hat, where you were involved in policymaking obviously, you were in the intelligence side not the policy side, but how should people think of these priorities . . Here do we allocate mr. Brennan these scarce resources as you and i were both involved, during the first year inthe Obama Administration 2009, there will be a comprehensive review of all these policy areas so there can be in fact a privatization. One of the things i remember not was we went through just the policy objectives and priorities, but then putting together what is called in National Intelligence priority framework, to try to ensure that u. S. Intelligence capabilities, whether technical, human, foreign presence can let whatever, were aligned with those priorities. This is a process that takes time. One of the things i am excited about is the revitalization of the Agency Process that i think is so necessary in order to come up with wise Foreign Policy choices. Unfortunately, that interAgency Process appears to have atrophied badly during the Trump Administration. That process was very important to all previous administrations. I know joe biden, who relied heavily on it and participated in all principal meetings, as well, Security Council meetings will use the process to come up with a framework and then align resources. Mark one final followup more in terms of here at home but obviously with Big International implications command the pandemic. Perhaps one reason we cited this show is obviously focused on the South Koreans the South Koreans have done a commendable job. Numbers are up today, however, a new measures are being imposed. You had a seat in the white house as a principal advisor on international, Global Health pandemic issues apologies for english they have to come out swinging, how do you think about this issue and then getting into some of the other bigger great power or Traditional International power issues . Dr. Cha although the biden team will have its own approach in terms of the issues to deal with, there are those unexpected developments that all of a sudden appear. Administration, we were less than three months into the administration when we were confronted with the h1n1 pandemic. As pointed out, i was president obamas Homeland Security advisor, and pandemics from within my portfolio. So it was an effort to try to understand first of all, what we terms of then seriousness of the pandemic, and also making sure we were working with the appropriate medical experts, scientists, private experts, and others. One of the things i think joe biden will do, just like obama did, will rely heavily on the scientist, doctors, the data. Do is continueto with their approach in terms of how they will deal with the issues we face right now, but also anticipating there will be some unforeseen developments, whether it will be the h1n1 pandemic in 2009, whether it be like the 9 11 attacks during the first year of the bush administration, these are the things they will have to plan for in terms of how they will surge, how they will be flexible, and what they can do to ensure that the administrations capabilities and expertise are brought to bear in a very thoughtful and effective manner. Mark thanks for that cometh john. Excellent in your point about policy development and crisis management, the confluence of those two on on already overtaxed National Security and decisionmaking structure is interesting. We will get to that later on. North korea posed challenges in the early days for president obama as well. This is a careeroriented show. We will bookmark about. One last question we will bookmark that. One last question before we get to sue and victor. Lets go one more level broader, a question that has global implications, but obviously at the epicenter of this question is northeast asia. I want to quote you director 2019 testimony from congress where he said, china and russia are more aligned at any point since the 1950s. Their relationship is likely to strengthen in the coming year. He goes on to say that their threat perceptions, particularly as it relates to u. S. Unilateralism, interventionism, western promotion of Democratic Values and human rights, is something that they are aligned on, and they are eroding wellestablished security norms, and increasing the risk of regional conflict, particularly asia. Dle east and east and the final point, this gets to the alliance piece of what we talk about in this program, he said, some u. S. Allies and partners are seeking greater independence from washington in perception ofeir changing policies on u. S. Security and trip and are becoming more open to a multilateral partnership. Long paragraph, but i think an important context. What are the implications of these findings, and where are we headed, and what advice would you give to the incoming team . Mr. Brennan really good question. It pivots off the last question, in terms of the early days and months of the first year or two of the Biden Administration. I think Foreign Countries will be testing the Biden Administration to find out how it is going to deal with these and russia and china i think are high on that list along with north korea, iran and others. I dont know if i agree with dan that there is a strong alignment between russia and china, i think there are concerns and common approaches on how they fend off the United States effort to enhance its standing in a number of parts of the world since russia and china musclesflexing their more in some areas. I think the tone the United States that for the last four years will have to be different over the next four years. So i think china and russia will well. O adapt to that as i think both moscow and beijing felt that with the United States pulling back from some of those global responsibilities and engagement, aid give china and russia more opportunities to enhance understanding and relations with countries around the world. One of the things i think is going to be important for the Biden Administration to do is to really reflect joe bidens very pragmatic and practical approach to these global issues. He is not an ideologue, by any means. He is somebody who will deal with the issues by their merits, which means he is not going to look at china through a myopic lens of an enemy, there are many dimensions to the u. S. China relationship. Obviously, there is trade. There is economics, technology, north korea, proliferation, all of that. Some areas the United States and china can find ways to cooperate. Beas where in fact we can competitors we will be competitors. I think President Biden and Vice President harris are going to engage with china in a multidimensional way and not just consider it an act toward it as an evil empire. We treat china as an enemy across the board, china will react. Similarly. I think the seem is true with china i think the same is true with china. Joe biden believes it is important for moscow and washington to find ways to navigate these very difficult relationships because it is in the interest of global stability. I think he has his eyes wide open when it comes to vladimir putin, and xi jinping and others, but i think it will be a more thoughtful approach. Also, i think joe biden recognizes that you can allow problems such as north korea to fester, and iran as well, because the more difficult it is to resolve and redressed the issues of concern. I think the first year or two will be quite determinative, of how the relationships the u. S. Has these countries and other countries will take shape. We have to sort of wait and watch how both washington and gauges washington and engages. Mark to your point, you just laid out for our viewers just how big these decisions are and how important it is to get it right early. I am overstating it, that it is really important. A final point, i remember you mentioning this to me at the white house, it dovetails with president elect bidens being a pragmatist and his advisers. Pragmatism takes time to cause you have to sift through the issues, come to independent conclusions. There is an anchor point. Exponential factor for the work cut out for the Incoming Administration. But good people up to the task, i will say that. Let me bring in victor, you have been sitting in the sidelines, warming up, got some gatorade, all right. Lets take a couple of these threads a little bit bigger in terms of northeast asia. Korea, andia, north some of the points on the alliances. What do we have to do early as a country . What does divided administration have to do early in terms of those bigger pieces in northeast asia, so one sets the tone in terms of our alliance relationships, and two, formulate an effective strategy towards china, and three, north korea. A simple question for you there, vice dean cha . Dr. Cha [laughs] thanks, mike. Great conversation between you and john. Let me just say a few things. First is, i think one thing that is unique about the start of this administration compared to previous administrations that all of us worked for is that, every administration has a plan coming in, and invariably there is a crisis that takes them off track, and they have to adjust to that and find an exit point eventually, and that may happen to this administration, too, but at the same time, the crisis they face is one they cannot put on the back burner. The Current Crisis they come in with, that being the pandemic, is not something that can be put on the back burner, because a new crisis, whether it is in that pushesan itself onto the front burner. In many senses, it is even an bigger challenge. There are very experienced people working on this, but i think that is the first point. The second, in terms of mentioned,as john there is a lot happening in Foreign Policy, but there is a lot happening at home. One of the strongest messages we can send to some of these other countries like china, russia, north korea, iran, is that we are getting our act together at home, because that makes the you gott the United States stronger nationally which affects our Foreign Policy, and the credibility of the statements we make a broad. Many socalled competitors or adversaries for challengers out there look at the United States now and see us in disarray. We can go out and say the right things, and i think pres. Biden will say the right things, but it will carry much more credibility with allies and others around the world if they see as getting stronger domestically at home. The third point on allies and partners is, mr. Brennan said, of course, we do need to reestablish those relationships. It has been four years of a different template, if you can call it a template, that really denigrated our allies and partnerships around the world. There is liabilities on the power ledger, rather than assets. Reestablishing those is important not just because we want our allies to realize we are back, but also so that additional challengers or others do not overreach, dont miscalculate and feel overconfident and overreach. Whether that is china in taiwan, or russia in ukraine, or north korea with their missile and nuclear program. Mark one quick follow up to you the same question i posed to mr. Brennan in terms of privatization in asia, if you are looking at this from the old you sittingnsc, there talking to steve hadley, you have a lot of things to do there. How are you thinking in terms of prioritization . Alliances . You have china, north korea, then there is india over the horizon . Dr. Cha so, the first thing i think is the alliances. That is a priority. Immediately, our two key alliances like china and south korea have both been obstructed by an argument over defenseaving to do with and cost burden sharing. This has been our issue in the Korea Alliance in the past four years. One of the first things is to get those things done. I think there were good negotiations that took place. As you put it in the past, mark, it is low hanging fruit, and we should get those done so we can send the signal that we are ready to focus more on the bigger strategic issues. On the indiachina relationship, that is one i am quite worried about. That is a relationship where there arent really strong established patterns of cooperation, established patterns of interaction, not cooperation just interaction in terms of dispute resolutions. No institutions through which to filter some of these confli