There are some single polls that give him more of an advantage. It is looking like biden as an advantage between 4 and 6 . Host is it enough to get out of the margin of error . Guest i believe so. On the high side the margin is around five point. Even if the Vice President were to come down a percentage point, that would be enough to do it. That is a high margin though. Most cases will be between 3 and five point. We will not know on Election Night because they will be ballots being counted for the days afterwards. It does look at the polls. If they are accurate, the Vice President will pull this off. Host 20 electoral votes at state. What role with the state play in this election . Guest if it is close, if the polls are largely wrong and none of the other states and play such as florida or North Carolina or georgia or arizona are competitive, pennsylvania will decide it. We may not know the outcome on Election Night. We will know if it is close or if it is more of a landslide for the Vice President. If it is close, it will likely come down to pennsylvania. Host what about those who dont traditionally vote . How are they voting how did they voting 2016 . How are the candidates getting them to show up this time around . Guest we expect turn out to be higher. Pennsylvania typically has a higher turnout rate and the rest of the country. There are between 30 and 40 of eligible voters that are not turning out. President trump did mobilize new people to the polls last time. He may do so again this election. We are getting evidence their people voting for the first time for Vice President biden because they think the election has consequence. They are being motivated to turn out as well. I think both campaigns are focused more on turnout than on trying to get new voters to the polls. I think there have been efforts to register new voters by both parties. Republicans have had some edge but i think they above focused on turnout with their own base supporters. On thehat is your take Supreme Court yesterday and their decision on pennsylvanias ballots . Guest obviously it has consequence. It means the state can continue counting ballots it receives for a few days after the election. If the election is close, if the margin of error works in the somethings favor, between 0 and 1 by 2016, those additional ballots may make a difference. At this point in time the Supreme Courts decisions have favored continuing to count ballots, which may be to the favor of Vice President biden. I dont think that question is settled. I think if we get to november 4 and there is not a clear answer, they will continue to be legal challenges and the court may hear the decision again. Host what are the rules in place in pennsylvania for a recount . Margin, ihin the think it is roughly under 1 where there is an automatic one. I think you will see both campaigns challenging to have a recount if it is anywhere close to 1 . I think likely we will see a recount because the consequences will be so dire. Host where will you be watching . What pockets of pennsylvania are you watching on Election Night and one . Why . Guest some counties flipped from blue to red in 2016 that could affect that could in effect flip back. On the eastern side of the state. You recounting in the northwest part of the state. Erie countyounty in the northwest part of the state. There is a decent chance those three could go back to blue. I think beaver county, that has traditionally been more republican but it did go blue and 2018 in the midterms. You could see that coming back. West of philadelphia, we could see that flip. And cumberland in the center. Most counties that are red or blue in 2012 and 2016 will remain so. There are five or six counties that could flip back. I think the overall margins across the state, if the Vice President is able to do 5 or 6 better in traditionally right counties, that could make up the difference from 2016. Host we will go to gary and philadelphia supporting the president. Good morning. Caller so, you will never change philadelphia and pittsburgh. They will always be democratic strongholds. They always have been. I think we will see in pennsylvania, one, a lot of Trump Supporters there is a lot of violence towards Trump Supporters. People had their homes damaged, signs taken away, attacked on the streets. Jews in new york getting attacked when they are for trump. There is a lot of negative sentiment towards Trump Supporters. What i think you will see in pennsylvania in the further suburban areas are people who dont want their counties to turn into the areas that are democratically run. I believe it was Lancaster County that had an incident where there was a police shooting. There were protests. It almost turned into riots. Instead of turning into a full out riot, they charged every Single Person who was arrested and they are pushing them through the justice system. They are not ignoring it. When we talk about law and order and we talk about what kind of administration we want, i think it is evident in pennsylvania when you see in those Rural Counties they put a quick quash on any issue that arose. I think that speaks volumes. Host nick clark . Think as i said before, i most right counties will stay red. The law and order message the president is advancing is likely with voters who decided they will support the president there is not a lot of evidence it is changing anyones mind. It is really resonating with people who are already embedded. The question is will it mobilize turnout . Will Trump Supporters be more likely to vote because they are concerned about these law and order issues . I have my doubts because i think its already a highly mobilized group. They are likely to turn out and vote. I suspect gary is right. Pennsylvania stays red, that may one of the expo nations but i have some doubts right now. Host how confident are you in polling this time around . Guest we are in a different situation. We have more state polling now. A lot of the polling people were basing their projections on back in 2016 were national polls. We did not have as many staples as we have now. There are more consistent indicators of what is going on in each state. I think they have accounted for some of the errors they had in 2016. Essentially they were not weighting demographics that were likely to support the president as much. We are seeing that now. I am fairly confident because of the differences that make of the polling methodology that they may be more accurate. We can see that in 2018. They were far more accurate pricking outcomes and 2016. 2016. Host what are voters saying now about this election . Guest that is primarily whites without a College Education. That Group Remains pretty friendly supportive of the president , particularly white men without a College Education. We have seen some movement with white women without a college of asian. Without a College Education. Decker supported the president in 2016 by 10 to 20 point. It is basically even between Vice President biden and President Trump in that group right now. That group does for the remain in the president s camp. There are a lot of voters without a College Education in pennsylvania, which is what makes it much more of a swing state. Host david from florida, supporting the president. Caller thank you. I have a couple of points. I now live in florida. I am 82. Viewpointn overall but im an avid trump supporter because i watched him as i was growing up in philadelphia. What he could get done in new york when nobody else could, because i did work in new york for a while. As far as the university of pennsylvania, my father graduated from the university of pennsylvania and university of pennsylvania law school. Has tell you, biden what do they call them . A big fund at the university of pennsylvania. The chinese are the people that gave him the money for that fund at the university of pennsylvania. My father would be turning over in his grave. Pittsburgh. I love pittsburgh. It is booming. Ozing with people. They had to put in new bridges. Son got a 6,500 raise. Anything people say about trump did not do this and trump did not do that and trump lies, nobody actually tells me what was the lie he told. Clark, our People Better off in pennsylvania than they were four years ago . Guest i dont think so. Im not sure even the president s supporters are saying that. They look to the president is the one that improved the situation. His success in 2016 was based on a message around change. We are going to make your lives better. He is trying to repeat that message even though he is coming at this as an incumbent. I think supporters are going along with it. A lot of what is wrong with the country are factors beyond the president s control. By reelecting him he may be able to address those and make the country better. Host what about independents, nonvoters, swing voters . Guest i think independents and swing voters look more like democrats who were saying the country is not better off, in fact it is worse off. There is dramatic need for change in the dont look at the president has the one they can deliver that. They look at him is responsible for the situation. It is roughly in the high 80s and low 90s amongst democrats would say that. The high 60s among independents. Host gerrit in michigan, you are undecided. Caller i was listening to the program here. I heard an individual calling for michigan, just a couple of towns over from where i live. His comments were not spiteful. Then i heard the philadelphia caller call in. She started screaming and raving, dont tell us how to do things. You dont know its happening in philadelphia. Weess the tv is lying to us, are seeing the riots in the business is being burned to the ground. We do know what the hell is going on in philadelphia. We have a right to our opinions. What is happening in philadelphia and a lot of the other big cities are democraticallycontrolled that are being destroyed. Im a lifelong democrat myself. Where i have gotten to the point where i am frustrated is in 2016 we cast our ballots. But even when Bernie Sanders runs, Hillary Clinton got the superdelegates. Host are you undecided . You sound like you know you are voting for. Caller after listening to the back on conversations, i am leaning strongly towards the president. I will tell you what. When i hear people blaming him for Different Things i will give you an example. The cost of living has gone up. Part of that is because of the pandemic. How was the president responsible for that . They need to take responsibility for their own actions and stop blaming they keep saying donald trump is lying but they will not tell us what the lie is. Host charles in trenton, florida, supporting the former Vice President. Caller i was just wanting to make a comment about the fracking. I know that is a big issue in pennsylvania. Ifot sure if i were everyone is aware of but fracking is dependent on the price of oil. Right now there is an oil war between russia and saudi arabia. Fracking is off the table. It is too expensive to try to do. To complain about what biden things about that is kind of irrelevant. Clarkst me get nick perspective on the question of fracking. Does it alienate voters . Comments,residents does it alienate voters in pennsylvania . Guest somebody voters already have their minds made up if they will support him or not it is unlikely to have an effect. It does resonate because fracking is a big part of the pennsylvania economy. It helped create new jobs and fueled additional revenue into the local economies and the state economy. It does resonate with voters here but im not convinced it is moving the dial in terms of the likely outcome of the election. I think most people have their minds made up. You asked about what is different about 2020 . Undecided. Rs were genuinely undecided. They tended to break in the president s favor a few days before the election. At the same moment in earlier we are looking at 4 to 5 whose minds are not made up, genuinely undecided. They areof those, probably already leaning a direction. It is hard to imagine fracking is affecting more than a handful of people. Host the president and the former Vice President holding dueling Campaign Rallies today in tampa, florida. The president will be there at 1 30 p. M. Eastern time. We will have coverage of his event right here on cspan and on our website, cspan. Org. Four listen on the go with the free cspan radio app. In the evening time, joe biden will be there at 6 30 p. M. Eastern time. You can watch it here on cspan and on our website and the radio app. Lets go to donna in hampton, virginia, supporting charles in trenton, florida. You are on the air with nick clark. Donna . Good morning. Caller i am having fun with your phone call. Trying to get there was a nightmare. Host we are having a little bit of an issue this morning. Caller the girl said he got some bad weather. I am wondering why you dont have an independent line anymore. I think that is the one i should be calling under. I have a couple of comments for your guest. Memberseveral family who were going to vote for trump for one good reason because their 401 k s have gone through the roof. They are very happy he is in office and they will reelect him. I also have at least six family members that are in the medical field in several different states. One is a director of a big hospital in tallahassee. The coded thing is wore out. That is what the democrats are counting on. They have no issues in their hospitals. Host i want to get nick clarks perspective on health care the aca and covid19, how that has impacted the race in pennsylvania. Guest i think covid is probably impacting the race everywhere. Amongst supporters, you might find people like donna who think the issue is not salient or the pandemic is somehow handled and we are over it. Amongst independent voters, they are not seeing the same reality. They think the pandemic is very much ongoing. They are concerned about how the federal government is responding to that. I dont think it is a given every independent voter will flit from President Trump to Vice President biden but i think overall the issue is probably a plus for Vice President biden. Host nate in milwaukee. Caller thank you for having me. I was calling because i know gerrymandering is an issue pennsylvania has to deal with, like wisconsin. In 2018, trump supported the gerrymandering which is basically rigged elections. One thing i was going to ask about on that issue on taking away peoples freedom when it is,s to state elections does pennsylvania, like wisconsin, still have a gerrymandered state legislature that is not responsive to voters and undermining the governors efforts to deal with coronavirus . We have had problems with that. Say i thinkl gerrymandering is something both parties have engaged in. While i agree they can and does work against democratic intentions, it is not something nce of to the provide republicans. Pennsylvania has been dealing with this. Congressional districts were redrawn by court order roughly two years ago. That is part of what created a situation where three public and districts flipped in 2018. Republican districts flipped in 2018. State house representatives have remained largely intact. I dont think we have seen a lot of effort the area to redraw them. There is some gerrymandering going on there. That has been to the benefit of republicans at the statehouse. I dont think it is unique to the Republican Party in pennsylvania or anywhere else. Host undecided, ned . Caller hi. It is getting interesting out there. The whole fracking thing getting worked out there in pennsylvania, the industry is actually shifting over to start using geothermal technology. Hopefully that might have peoples that might affect peoples voting outcome if that is an issue for them. Upanted to bring one thing you are not talking about. Withnk we need to focus on the pandemic surging in all the hospitals across the nation going to be overwhelmed with we are under attack from russian Cyber Attacks going on targeting our Health Care Infrastructure across the nation. John inwill go on to pennsylvania supporting the Vice President. Caller yes. I am a registered republican for more than 20 years. Am a never trumper. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was able to win Chester County. Obama did not win Chester County. It seemed like there was a big shift in Chester County. I wondering how much of this antitrump is coming from philadelphia. Chester is 60 miles from Atlantic City. Being knowledgeable of what happened in Atlantic City with trump bankrupting four casinos and receiving 1 billion worth of debt relief and not paying taxes on that. You areet debt relief, taxed on that debt relief. Trump, according to the Atlantic City press, he never paid taxes on that 1 billion he got in debt relief. It seemed like Atlantic City was the only place reporting on what was going on there. And event make it, during the campaign of 2016, none of that stuff host nick clark . Guest i suspect it is a small effect because it