Suzanne it is a pleasure to welcome you here today to our conversation on Foreign Policy and the u. S. President ial election. This event is part of the brookings policy 2020 series which seeks to empower voters with factbased, datadriven, nonpartisan information to better understand the policy matters discussed by candidates running for office this year. Thank you all for joining us. We are 29 days away from november 3. Americans will cast their ballots for the next president , but the future of americas global role is also at the ballot. Looking toward the election, todays conversation will focus in particular on its implications for the transatlantic relationship and u. S. Foreign policy toward europe. European leaders and many of their counterparts around the world are watching the election closely. While there are differing views about how the upcoming november election will shape the relationship, few in europe believe it will revert to its previous form. With polling from the European Council on Foreign Relations on european views of the transatlantic relationship, it shows that france and germany see the need to prepare for a longterm disengagement from the u. S. Regardless of the outcome of the election. The polling also finds that irrespective of the results, no e. U. Member states seek to position europe as a third power between the u. S. And china. Todays discussion will assess the stakes of the election and its implications for u. S. Foreign policy. I am delighted to be joined by an outstanding panel of experts who will offer insights and analysis about what we can expect from either a second trump term or a biden presidency. They will also consider how a geopolitical europe would react to either scenario. Before we dive into the conversation, i would like to take a moment to thank the turkish business and Industry Association for their support and collaboration which has helped make this event possible. We are grateful for the renewed support of our center on the u. S. And europe, and we look forward to continuing our Successful Partnership with them. As always, an ironclad commitment to independence is at the center of Brookings Institution policies and values, and the views expressed here are solely those of the speakers. Once again, thank you for joining us this morning. Now over to thomas wright. Thomas thank you so much for that introduction, and thank you to all of you for joining us online this morning. When we first devised this Panel Concept a few weeks ago, we thought it would be an eventful october with lots of things to discuss. I dont think any of us could have envisaged the circumstances in which we find ourselves this morning. So to talk about that and the broader implications of the election and Foreign Policy in general, we are fortunate to be joined by a terrific panel of our colleagues from brookings. I will briefly introduce them although i am sure they are all well known to you. First, bill galston. He has done immense work on the election on u. S. Politics and its connection to Foreign Policy and americas role in the world. Fiona hill is my colleague at the center for the United States and europe and senior fellow in Foreign Policy and formerly the senior director for europe and russia in the white house during the Trump Administration. Celia belin is a visiting fellow in the center for the u. S. And europe and Foreign Policy and also authored a book earlier this year in france on the views of the Democratic Candidates for president. Welcome, all the Experts Joining us. We will talk for about 45, 50 minutes and then turn it over for questions, which you can see on twitter. I guess my first question is really on the news of the day. I will just start by saying, of course, our best wishes go out to the president and to all of those affected by this outbreak and hoping for a speedy recovery. I wanted to start with you. It seems there is really no precedent for an event or Development Like this, certainly so close to an election. It really creates additional uncertainty. It is also a global event of course because we are talking about the commanderinchief of the United States. There is lots of things that can happen on the International Scene over the next four weeks, isticularly if the president impaired or incapacitated in any way. So, we really have everything coming into the mix, National Security, politics, personalities. I was wondering if you could give us your first sort of impressions of the gravity of this moment, maybe some way to think about it and also, how its likely to feed into the election on november 3. Bill well, tom, your question anticipates my answer. It is all of the above and more. I think the general sense in the United States is that we are piling one disruptive event on top of another. If this had happened against a calm backdrop, it would have been one thing, but for it to happen while the rubble was still bouncing from the tumultuous president ial debate last week, while threats of interference with the u. S. Election and the count of the ballots are in play, because the president of the United States has put them there, plus, of course, the actual situation on the ground with the pandemic not under control, with the economy and the economic recovery appearing to slow and perhaps in danger of stalling altogether, with racial conflict and partisan polarization, this is an unprecedented situation. I am plenty old enough, i was an adult in 1968, and i long said that 1968 was the worst year in american politics and Society Since the end of the civil war. I am in the process of revising that judgment. It may well be that the year were enduring is, in fact, the worst since the civil war. With regard to the election itself, this is at the very least, a serious problem for the Trump Campaign to be added to the roster of serious problems, including a decline in Public Opinion polls that it was already facing in the following direct sense. The game plan was that President Trump would barnstorm around the country in the last month of the campaign. He is widely viewed as his campaigns most important asset to be deployed. The trump rallies are famous for their raucous enthusiasm which appears to have ripple effects through the portion of the electorate that is inclined to vote for mr. Trump, and it appears that for a substantial period of time, would i say at least the next 10 days, the Trump Campaign will not be able to play its high card. Which will impede his prospects of coming from behind to catch joe biden at the wire of this race. Thomas thank you. Thanks, bill. Fiona, if i could turn to you next. I mean, you worked with many of the people who are currently serving in the white house. I was going through media reports over the weekend. If not a general sense of chaos, just basically of uncertainty and concern and concern about the continuity of government and there has been some controversy around the chief of staff mark meadows, who i know came off your time there. But i was wondering if you could maybe give us your thoughts about how this is being experienced by the officials who worked on u. S. Policy. What impact is the president s illness likely to have on u. S. National security, and any other reflections you have on these latest developments. Fiona well, i think what were seeing is the risks of having a hyper personalized presidency. This really fits into what, you know, what bill has already said. And i think were in a very unusual time when, you know, President Trump has vocally, publicly and frequently stressed that he is the only person that matters in the system. And it would be very interesting to hear from, you know, bill again as we go around, im sure there will be questions about this, not just about the continuity of government, but about the whole delegation of authority in the case of incapacitation. Obviously, weve had that before in the past. But this is an administration in which the president doesnt like to delegate down authority. As i learned in the time that i think it came out clearly in the end of the testimonies last year, nobody really delegates with potential authority to carry out the business of the state. You know, it can easily be undermined in a tweet, anything you say. Theres a question about whether anything anybody else in the system says really matters. Just in short, it makes it difficult for everybody else to go about their jobs. There is little confidence apart from what i would say are the routine domestic issues, but certainly you asked about National Security that people can press ahead with anything. We just recently saw that National Security advisor bryan has gone off to meet with his counterparts from russia, the equivalent of the National Security council in geneva. Obviously, we did that many times when i was in the National Security council. Even then, at that particular set of junctures, which was much earlier on in the term, the russians and others were always questioning about how authoritative were our interactions. We moved along with arms negotiations that seems to have hit a crucial period, but in the months since the election, how can they really press ahead on some of the Critical Issues, that, you know, like bill is suggesting, that require calmer atmosphere . Its very hard to make breakthroughs on Critical Issues like armscontrol, which are very sensitive and detailed, and complex negotiations that are technical, when you have chaos and uncertainty. As bill was talking about in the domestic front, just a metaphor also for National Security, it is very hard for anyone whos under these circumstances to get on with their job when its not clear how much authority that they actually have. Thomas thank you. Celia, this is really the latest development not just in u. S. Politics for the rest of the world, but also in the handling of the coronavirus. How is it being interpreted in france and in europe and what sort of the main lens through which they see the United States at the moment . Celia, sorry, youre on mute. Celia thank you, tom. Force of habit. Of course europeans are looking with great interest to whats happening to President Trump at the moment. Great interest, great concern, i must say. All the leaders have sent their sentiment of support, of concern for the president and his family. Of course, obviously, from the public or the media, you had some sarcastic comments as its wellknown that President Trump himself had adopted a position of doubt, lets say, regarding this virus. So you had some coverage on this in the media in europe, in france, and in germany and the u. K. Obviously over the weekend. But in many ways, it sort of reinforces this european idea that whats going on in the u. S. Is that you have a country that is adrift just a month out of the president ial election, that the pandemic is not under control, that the tensions, political tensions are extremely high, as bill said, you have crisis on top of each other. There is a strong feeling since the beginning of the pandemic, or lets say two months into it, that the u. S. Is not handling the crisis very well. There was a poll from the Peer Research center mid september that showed that europeans considered when they were asked, who has done a good job in dealing with covid, they were given pretty good marks for the eu, around 50 , 60 . Even more for their own country, around 60 or 70 . And quite high marks for china, around 40 . But the u. S. Notes mark, was abysmal, around 10 to 15 in some of the main European Countries, considering only 10 or 15 of people considered that the u. S. Was doing a good job dealing with covid. So really, what this ultimate crisis would do was just reinforce this image and at the same time, the europeans own sense of isolation. Who else than the u. S. Can be their ally in dealing with this pandemic . And at the moment, the giant, the american giant is missing, and its leadership is missing. Now more than ever, you know, the president ial leadership is missing as well. So, i was just thinking, listening to bill and to fiona, that the only thing really missing from this confluence of crisis is an international crisis, and hopefully, you know, the u. S. Wont face that, but that would be a very weak moment, very hard moment for the u. S. At a time when power is concentrated around the president , and the president is or could be incapacitated. At least its a worrying thought also for europeans. Thomas celia, the prime , haveer Boris Johnson there been instances of high profilers in france who contracted it . Celia and one wase president of a regional council. Another important figure of the socialist party, who died from. Ovid early in the process quite a few members of cabinet have been sick. It has remember never felt as close to a crisis of leadership as it was in the u. K. Or going on in the u. S. Of course there was a sense of relief we have a young president at the moment. It is a little bit of luck, especially at the height of the pandemic in april and may, it was a comforting sentiment for some french. But i am sure it is extremely troubling to have the highest function in the land being hit to this degree and i realized i itnot think europeans feel as much as americans do. I have seen the coverage in the media here. I think it is quite traumatic. Bill, just a followup for you and it is to do with the mechanics of the election. I mean there are a lot of different scenarios that can happen over the next few weeks. President trump coming back and campaigning, potentially, and the other half he could be quite sick. All of that could have an impact on the election. If he has to withdraw from the race, who knows, but my question is is the u. S. Electoral system sort of set up adequately to deal with the spectrum of possibilities . When people go to vote on november 3 in this respect at , is that likely to go smoothly or could we be facing a constitutional crisis with uncertainty about the election and the postelection period . Bill that is a very large question, tom. Let me try to subdivide it for purposes of clarity. Ability to get back on the campaign trail will be dictated, to some extent, by health considerations. This ise saw yesterday a president determined to project an aura of strength and vulnerability. We have good reason to believe he will go to extraordinary lengths to do that and i expect that to continue. Heunless he is really so ill must be confined to bed, his bed in the hospital for an extended period, i would expect them to get back on the campaign trail even against the advice of his doctors. That is just a speculation, but i think it is consistent with his character and conduct. Question number two. What would happen if you became so ill he were, in effect, forced to withdraw as the president ial candidate . Here there is no ambiguity. Both the Republican Party and, for that matter, the Democratic Party have in place very clear legal mechanisms for replacing a National Candidate if the president invice emergency circumstances. Become aexpect that to subject of contestation. We also have clear legal and constitutional processes for temporarily transferring power from the president to the Vice President or people lower down in the chain of succession if that were to become necessary. So, the question that is most able has to do with the election itself in the aftermath. The president in the past has indicated he distinguishes very sharply between the returns that are announced on the night of election at the returns that come in and are counted after that. That could be a serious point of contestation and disruption because a record share of votes in 2020 will be cast by mail. Many mailin ballots will not be counted in time to be reported on election night. Matter i think the situation is clear. Those ballots, to the extent they are not invalidated because of technical violations by individual voters, will be counted whether the president will accept the count is a different matter. That will be a political question, not a legal question. Number ofber of a organizations that have worked through a number of disaster scenarios. Sort of scenarios like a Nuclear Meltdown to which one attaches a small probability, but if it came to pass, would be catastrophic. Time does not permit me to go through all of those. Suffice it to say both Political Parties have reviewed those and it isin detail within the realm of metaphysical possibility that one or more states would send competing slights of electors to compete. Ectors if that happens, all bets are off. Thomas assuming we get through that [laughter] and we end up with a president in quick order after the election, i would like to turn to the two obvious scenarios. Trump is reelected or biden is elected and ask you to paint through what that will mean for international policy, but particularly for the transatlantic relationship. Let us start with trump. I know he is less likely, according to data, to be reelected, but it is a possibility obviously. Let us assume he is reelected. Fiona, if i could start with you, since you worked in the white house and i