Battleground states, looking at the key states that could play a crucial role in this years election. We turn our attention to the state of michigan, and we begin with Detroit Free Press washington correspondent Todd Spangler. Where do things stand right now in the state of michigan . s leadlooks like riding in michigan is still pretty solid looks like bidens lead in michigan is still pretty solid. The last one had him at eight points up. Looks like he is doing well. Not as big a lead as it was a month or so ago. Host why has he lost that edge . Guest frankly, as we get closer to the election, we always expected a tightening of the race. During the summer, the height of the black lives matter protests and some of the actions being taken by the administration, that number balloons, at one point as high as 16. We expected it to come down. Considering an election the four years ago trump won michigan by. 2 , eight is still a pretty big number. We expect it to come back down and narrow even more before the election. Campaigns are the two focusing on . What issues are they finding works in the state of michigan . Guest it is michigan, so both sides want to talk about auto production. At a rally recently outside saginaw, the president came in and made a bunch of really wild claims about revitalizing the Auto Industry, about opening tons of new plants. That has not happened. Even before covid, auto employment in michigan, manufacturing in michigan, was down slightly from where it was when he took office. I do not think the Auto Industry was doing badly precovid, but it is cyclical, going through changes. Warren, michigan, about two weeks ago, also talking about an auto plan. He said he can create new jobs by encouraging the transfer to electric cars, hybrids. That move is already underway. There are a lot of new models coming out that are electric, hybrid, in the next few years. They are both making that kind of message. On the negative side, obviously, biden is trying to hit trump hard on his handling of coronavirus. We had a big spike in michigan back in march, april, trying to hit on that. Governor whitmer and trump have sparred over this issue over and over again. Health care generally has been a big issue for biden and the democrats and will continue to be, with the argument that the Trump Administration are not serious about protecting preexisting conditions. They areump side, really trying to hammer home bidens support in the 1990s for nafta. Nafta is blamed in michigan for a lot of jobless in manufacturing and the Auto Industry through the 1990s, through the 2000s, and had long been looked at something that hurt the economy and hurt manufacturing. Trump did succeed in renegotiating nafta in the new deal with canada and mexico. We have yet to see whether that will pay dividends. Amocrats had been calling for renegotiation of nafta, including biden, for a long time. Took a republican president to push that through. There were a lot of republicans opposed to that you no longer are. It did happen. Democrats played a key role in changing that negotiation, making sure that mexico would live up to some more environmental concerns, labor concerns. But trump is hitting by the heart with that nafta message in michigan. Host where does and with which voters does the Supreme Court vacancy resonate in michigan . Guest sure. Very activee is a antiabortion, Prolife Movement in michigan, without question. Those voters are out there. President trump already had those voters. Little question about that. The real question in michigan is going to be whether or not a ish to seat a justice who is goingrly prolife white,e hurt him with noncollege women who actually might support him otherwise who are prochoice and believe in abortion rights. There is some evidence that it could. Now whether or not this becomes if it becomes an election about the Supreme Court, in michigan, given certain democrats among suburban women, particularly, among women of color, that is going to really ramp up enthusiasm to vote against donald trump, even if they get this done before then. Even more so, because there is going to be a feeling that in the senate and in the congress, if something can be done legislatively to enshrine those rights and take other actions, that will overwhelm the supreme conservative63 majority. I think that will help the democrats in a state like michigan. Todd spangler, how much time or each of the candidates spending in michigan, and how much money are they spending . Guest in terms of money, the Trump Campaign really just turned back on the spigot for ads. Here through the mother of august, they were basically dark, leaving it to outside groups to handle here through the month of august, they were basically dark. But they are spending and trying to make a play for michigan, without question. President trump had a rally outside saginaw about a week or so ago. Rally, flew in on air force one. Biden himself went to warren. Those have been the only two trips we have seen recently from the candidates themselves. Both have been sending surrogates in. Senator harris was in for the Biden Campaign. Jill biden going up north to Traverse City here in the next few days. The Trump Campaign had some numbers of the president s family. Singer, artist who supported trump in the past, he said he was considering a run for the u. S. Senate two years ago. He did not run. He was at a rally. We expect more things like that. From keynotesee candidates again. President trump ended the 2016 campaign in grand rapids. It was an Early Morning election day rally, which was wildly attended in grand rapids and he ended up winning the state and was in michigan twice the we can leading up to the election. We certainly expect him to be back. We also expect biden to be back. But will we see them as much as we might if michigan were a two or threepoint state, that remains to be seen. Host you can follow Todd Spanglers reporting in the Detroit Free Press. You can also follow him on twitter. Thank you very much for your time. Guest thanks for having me. Host we will dig deeper into the state of michigan with Political Science professor at Oakland University david dulio, author of michigan Government Politics and policy. Ulio, 2016, the president won narrowly. Where did he win, and how did he get the victory in the wolverine state . Guest when the difference in the margin in 2016 was less than 11,000 votes, you can find that margin in a lot of different places across our state, and i will point you to a few. One is simple, turnout. And that is for places where well,icans generally do turnout was up. In michigan, we would refer to those places as up north. So if you drew a line sort of halfway down the lower peninsula, everything north of that is up north, strong republican territory. Not many voters up there. Romneys improved on vote totals, and turnout was up sometimes 3, 4, 5 points in some of those counties. On the flipside, in wayne county, home of detroit, turnout was mainly flat. But in that county, Hillary Clinton received 80,000 fewer votes than barack obama did just four years before. So democrats in wayne county simply did not show up for Hillary Clinton. Another factor is and i think that your viewers should hone in on this in the next six weeks or so places like Macomb County, michigan, made famous 40 years thein the 1980s with reagan democrats, individuals who considered themselves democrats but voted for Ronald Reagan because they liked his stances on some particular issues but generally liked his demeanor, thought he was tough, thought he stood up for the little guy. And trump had Great Success with those folks in Macomb County, bluecollar workers, union workers, and in that county long, trump got 35,000 more votes than mitt romney did just four years before, and clinton got 30 5000 fewer votes than obama did. Does that mean that there are 35,000 people in Macomb County that voted for obama and that voted for trump . No. But 5000, 6000, 7000 . Sure. The rest is created in turnout differences. Some of those obama voters did not show up, and trump brought out some voters that had not voted before. Guest you mention some who voted for president obama and switched and voted for President Trump. Are they up for grabs this time around . Guest that is a great question, and i think that is one of the outstanding questions, one of the uncertain questions that remains here in michigan, to see if trump can repeat the coalition of voters that he put together in 2016. And i think some of them certainly are still with him. Trumps base is, as you know, heavily white workingclass folks, and that is not the only folks that vote for donald trump, of course. But in places like Macomb County, saginaw county, those are two of the 12 counties that had pluralities vote for obama and then vote for trump in 2016. Those folks are still with the president. His strength in the base of white workingclass voters is incredibly strong here in michigan. Then whatd dulio, does Vice President need to do differently than Hillary Clinton . You touched on it a little bit. And do you see signs at the campaign is doing that . Guest sure, i would point to a couple different factors. Trumpsry to hold down advantage in places like Macomb County. In your conversation with Todd Spangler, he mentioned joe biden was in warren just a couple weeks ago. That is an attempt to try to eat into trumps lead in those kinds of areas. And couple that with increasing turnout in wayne county, specifically the city of detroit, that can put biden in a really strong position come november 3. Again, it is no surprise to see senator harris visit the city of detroit in the last couple of days. And those are things that Hillary Clinton never did in 2016. That campaign made a terrible mistake strategically by really ignoring the state of michigan until the very last minute, and by then it was too late. Into thetrying to eat lead that trump has some of those bluecollar union workers, increase turnout in detroit, in general, get their voters to the polls better than the democrats did four years prior. Host we want viewers to join the conversation. If you support the bidenharris ticket, 202 7488000. 202 7488001. Undecided or supporting another, 202 7488002. Michigan voters, we want to hear from you, 202 7488003. Mr. Dulio, what is the president s campaign doing to try and recreate the win from 2016 . Guest continuing some of the messaging that was successful for him in 2016. Again, i will refer back to your conversation with todd. A lot of it is about trade and manufacturing. That was a, as i said, a very successful message that resonated with voters here in michigan, and i think that he is going to continue to do that, especially around the usmca, the renegotiated nafta. I think the president is going to come here and say, i told you four years ago that i was going to get rid of nafta and put Something Else in place that is better, and i did that. He is going to claim credit for that, and it is too early to know if it is better, but i would note that in an interview, Vice President biden admitted that he thought that usmca was better than nafta. And i think the Trump Campaign may try to use those words against the former Vice President. Host New York Times this money, trump struggles on gop turf as women favor biden in poll. Are you seeing this play out in michigan, as well . Guest we already have, to some extent. Ande were between 2016 2018, there was a pretty big shift, and a lot of that shift was seen in welleducated, suburban female voters in places like Oakland County. Affluentounty is an place with whitecollar workers, pretty affluent, highly 2016,ed, and we saw, in more of those voters marked their ballot for donald trump than many thought. But then in 2018, the vast majority of them did not support republicans here in michigan in the midterm, especially in our state races for governor, secretary of state, attorney general. Topsaw democrats sweep the of the ticket, flipped two congressional seats in michigan, the eighth and the 11th. One defeated an incumbent, one an open seat. Much of that has been attributed to many of those affluent,cated, suburban women leaving republicans and voting for democrats. So we have seen it the question is, can the president get some of those voters back . Host nancy is in rochester, michigan. Good morning. Caller hello there. Yes, home of Oakland University. I am just calling to say that i am one of those educated women of m,. S. Them from u and i am a trump person. I liked him and voted for him, but this time i am so pleased with what he has done. The posts inigan, michigan, i feel like i go down to the arenas, detroit, lake st. Clair, and that, and all ucr trump signs, trump flags on the boats. And we had a huge boat parade just for trump. They just nonstop. I feel the enthusiasm here in michigan. I was a little down may a month or so, two months ago, but not now. I feel that there has been a big change in michigan in the last month towards trump. Also they have got things going where there will be car caravans up the state here for trump. And the ground game here in michigan is much better than the democratic ground game. Host talk about that, professor. Makes sure, i think nancy a great point about the strength of trumps base. His supporters are fervently for the president. I am not sure that that is the campaign. The biden certainly, democrats are for him, but the veracity with which the Trump Supporters support their candidate is not matched. Signsether it is flags or and i will tell you, one defining point for me in 2016 was driving through the middle trump state and seeing sign after trump sign after trump sign, and it had to make you think, boy, there might be something to this, that the trump folks think he can win michigan. And he did. It was by a razor thin margin, but he won, obviously. It remains to be seen whether or not he can repeat that or the support that he has, the enthusiasm he has with his base, if that is enough to put him over the top again here in michigan. And what the caller referred to may be what we are seeing lead to tightening in those poles that you and todd mentioned. The Free Press Poll has biden up eight, but others have biden up two or three. A recent poll has a trump up two here in michigan. So it is close. Host a call from detroit. Welcome to the conversation. Caller good morning. Vp, he saved the Auto Industry. And donald trump said that the Auto Industry felt. If we would not have let the Auto Industry fail, then america would have failed, because michigan is the place where you got union jobs to help grow your family, but at the same time, trump said, let it fail. That was my statement. What ision to you is, it that donald trump has done for michigan, michigan ians, in the past three years that i have, almost four years. I have not seen any growth. I live in farmington hills. Thank you, and have a blessed day. Host professor . Guest is that a question for me for a trump supporter . I think the president s team would. 2, first and foremost, to the renegotiation of nafta for folks in michigan. I think they would point two the Strong Economy that everybody agrees was in place. All of the major indicators of Economic Growth were quite high early in 2020, then to be derailed by covid19. And you hear that to some extent in trumps messaging, when he talks about the great economy that we had and it obviously faltered with coronavirus. But i think that they will point to those as successes. Host the president has raised concerns about mailin voting. What is the process for mailin voting in michigan . Guest sure. We have no excuse absentee ballots here in michigan. L like somell mai western states have. But we do have no excuse absentee balloting that is, frankly, new to the state of michigan. Voters adopted a constitutional amendment in 2018 to move to no excuse absentee, and we are huge rise expected, a in the number of absentee ballots that have been requested, well over 2 million. Some of the clerks here in michigan estimate that we will see roughly half of pallets cast in november come through the absentee process. Host what are the requirements for getting your absentee ballot in . Well, that is a point of contention here in michigan at the moment. The general requirements are pretty standard. One has to request an absentee ballot that is accompanied by a signature, and then when that ballot is received, it is filled out, you have to sign it again, put it into a privacy sleeve, and send that into your clerk. Questions we are seeing across the country about mail delays and counting of absentee ballots are the same here in michigan. So there is a push or get people to if they want to use an absentee ballot, to get them returned early or to drop them off at a Clerks Office or a dropbox that is secure and placed around the state, usually at city hall and places like that. But we are also seeing a Court Challenge about when those ballots must b