In lowest of any president his first year. In his second year, 40 , the lowest of any president elected president in his second year in office. In his third year, he was at 42 , the lowest except for jimmy carter, we know it happened to him. President who has never seen a majority Approval Rating. It is important because Approval Ratings are the best way to determine whether a president is likely to get reelected or not. Referenda on the incumbent. It is not like a choice election like you had in 2016 or 2008. The coronavirus hit, he was only four or five points ahead in most polling. Joe biden had a lead in every one of the 20 States Hillary clinton carried, plus d. C. , by more than a margin of error, with the possible exception of minnesota. Then he had six battleground states. Michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, effectively settled. All three in the margin of error. North carolina, he was running with the president slightly ahead. The coronavirus hit and everything changes. Now we are looking at, in the average of all of the polls, it is about seven. 8, 9, 10 points behind. In swing states, he is behind it all six of those, and then he has got his leads in places like georgia, iowa, texas, ohio, and those leads are very small if at all. He is in a whole. He was within striking distance before the coronavirus. Not a competitive race today. He is not within striking distance today. Something would have to change for him to get into a more competitive situation. Lineswe will separate the for those supporting the bidenharris ticket. And those supporting the trumppentz ticket. Trumppence ticket. Before we go to calls, what do the best bit of good and bad news these candidates have gotten in the last several days . Trying to think what has happened for President Trump. Went into the two conventions with a lead of high single digits. When you are 10 points, in polls that i have the most confidence in, you cannot get a bounce off of 10 points. You cannot get a convention bounce off of 10 points. He seemed to have done. As for the president , i do not much of a bounce. His Approval Ratings moved up a little bit but he has not closed and manyetween biden key states. Now, i amght hardpressed to say what happens that makes the race more foretitive right now President Trump. Maybe a little better in minnesota, but he is still behind there. How about the atlantic remarksout disparaging that the president has pushed back on about the military. Had dozens and dozens of stories like this. I do not think they move many voters, to be perfectly honest. Anybody who is likely to get outraged by anything President Trump said, did, allegedly said, allegedly did, i think they were outraged long ago. 42 with the president , i think that is rocksolid and they will never drop. Anybody expecting President Trump to drop one Something Like this happens, you cannot. , they are not going to, because he never rose, he cannot drop. He is basically holding with his base. His ability to win over those , that has been severely compromised by a loss of tailwind in terms of the economy. That was his best issue, losing the tailwind hurt him. Seeing a slow to recognize the severity of the coronavirus and has not been effective at it. That hurt him with voters in the middle. You can roll them up into trump lovers and trump low theres, with very few in between. He has never gone after those in between and i think after the four months, his ability to win them over has been severely compromised. That is why i think he has a difficult time getting reelected. Is calling from clinton, maryland. You are up first. Yes, mr. Cook store my fender stole my thunder. I was going to ask about the impact of the atlantic story on trump selection. I would like to say, it is my trump hasat donald the wrong idea about his followers and what they look for in a president. Trump speeds for 30 of the population who are racists. I am sorry to say that. Theyump died tomorrow, would find someone to take his place. He has a message for those people no matter what he does or says, it has an effect on them, while he continues to espouse their beliefs. I tend to focus, you know, 90 of people who call themselves republicans will call themselves republicans down the line and same with democrats. Even of the 40 that call themselves independents, the vast majority of them lean republican Orleans Democrat an 80 of them vote that way. You are only talking about somewhere between 5 and 13 that are swing voters. These are the malleable people who can move around. Dynamic that changes the most, it will not be atlantic articles. We have had many of these before. Middle,s group in the they thought the economy was in strong shape and gave him complete credit for the economy, but a lot of these people have real questions about his character, about him as a person , his morality, his judgment, and his unwillingness to listen to experts. But the Strong Economy was keeping those problems in check. Strong economy and the concerns about him as a person and his leadership style, those concerns start going up. That is what changed the most. These kinds of articles, i do not think these things will move them. It is more a matter of, do i want to renew his contract for another four years, yes or no . And that is what is important. Biden is almost beside the point in this race, as is normally in incumbent races. From franklin, new york, good morning. To makei would like three points. The first was on inauguration day, january 21. The Unemployment Rate was 4. 9 and it did drop under trump to around 3. 9 . Lifting was done under president obama and Vice President biden. The second point i would like to , in the 25 weeks, 23 of the weeks, over one million americans filed for unemployment and two of those weeks, over 6 Million People filed for unemployment. 56 million americans filed for Unemployment Insurance since march 15. That is not a good economy. It is not a great economy. That is my neighbors children to the east of me, to the west , this has not been a great economy for those young adults. I would like to make if you do not mind, the stock market. I think a lot of us are addicted to judging the economy by the stock market. , 10 of we thet people own 84 of shares in the stock market. That youk market surge have seen was never discussed september 19. The Federal Reserve began a by up corporate debt. Since september of 2019, the Federal Reserve has brought up 7 trillion in corporate debt. This is quantitative easing on steroids. To the numbers the last caller rod up, to what extent do they play into the biden strategy . Daniel is extremely informed. Terriblemy, it was in shape when obama came into office. It did get better over those eight years, very slowly. And it continued to after President Trump took office. School all learned in that americans vote their pocketbooks. Line fromer the old 1992, it is the economy, stupid. There is a wonderful book about i didnt identity politics and the 2016 election. Found so interesting all the way through george w. Bush, there was a very strong relationship between consumer confidence, how people felt about the economy, and the president s Approval Rating. They feel better about the economy, and the Approval Rating goes up. Then president obama came into under and under obama and trump, that relationship has almost gone away. Thepeople are not voting on economy the same way they used to. They are voting culture and identity. It is race and gender, it is town do you live in small rural versus urban suburban. These things come together. That is why President Trump of 50 yearsix months low unemployment from september of last year to february of last year, six consecutive months of unemployment, and his Approval Rating hardly went out. Up. When the economy went into the tank, no one thinks he caused the coronavirus or the economic downturn, but, ups and downs of the economy per se do not affect job Approval Ratings or elections the way they used to. It is how was he handling the job overall, and he was always within striking distance until the coronavirus hit, until he was real slow. Never did fully engage with it. I think that in the loss of the economic tailwind has made a difference in this election. It is the loss of his tailwind is what i think has heard his heard him. I want to read you a headline from south florida. Biden is three points ahead of trump now in the First Convention pull. The gap is narrowing. Take us to that if you could. Three points ahead in florida i think for biden is a good place to be. The three that settled the presidency, mischa get michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania, those were the ones that biden started pulling up in first. Florida was actually holding back and not doing well for biden. If you were going to point to one or two states where the coronavirus hurt and his handling of it hurt him more than anything else, i would say florida and michigan. You have seen biden go up in florida. 4,en never had a consistent 5, or six point lead in florida. You would have to go back to when he had the 12 point lead a year ago. Is as good as it is likely to get for biden. People tortant for remember that because we have got such hyper partisanship, i mean, if you are a democrat, a republican president can do little or nothing right, and your side can do little or nothing wrong. For republicans, their president , a president of their party, can do very little wrong, and anything a democrat does is what i amou guys get getting at. Does isg is what it creates a high floor and a low partyg, that because your will stay with you no matter what, it creates a very strong floor. Because the other party will be against you no matter what, it creates a very strong ceiling. That is sevenad points in the Real Clear Politics National average, eight or nine in some of the other Live Television interview pulse, i think that is about as big as you could get, given hyper partisanship. A threepoint point lead in florida, a state President Trump carried by a point that republicans carry for the senate and governor by one point each that is President Trump running four or five points behind. I do not think biden has slid in florida at all. Host tammy. Will put think biden our health back at risk with china. Trump just brought back frominds of businesses overseas and plans to bring back and has Broader Health back to the United States from china with our medications and stuff. Biden plans to undo all of that. All of the businesses have taken and has gone to extensive remakes of businesses due to covid. New businesses started up, creating many jobs for the american people. New jobs fromot bringing health care back to the u. S. Host thank you for calling. More on the economy. , where fracking has become one of the big issues. Take us to that state and how the candidates are doing. Pennsylvania was fascinating on election night. In 2016 was seen the Clinton Campaign both sides spent a ton of money and attention on pennsylvania. The Clinton Administration campaign spent normas amount of money and that metro area and in pittsburgh, which basically said, there are not that many people, we will go ahead and let trump take that. City of out of the philadelphia with a 450,000 vote margin, more than they thought they needed to win the state by. The margins they were looking for but got killed in between. You had two different things. High shares of the vote, where there was a county or two in pennsylvania, donald trump got 80 of the vote. There were quite a few where he got 70 . It added up and the turnout in smalltown, Rural America, turnout zoomed in world in 2016 to a level it had not before. The model was basically broken. Campaign, theyis will make their own mistakes. I can tell you, they are not going to ignore part of pennsylvania that is between philadelphia and pittsburgh for sure. Will not take for granted michigan and wisconsin, for that matter. He may make new mistakes but will not make the same mistakes clinton had where they thought they had michigan in the bag and that they did not need central pennsylvania. The fracking you mentioned, that were area where democrats on the wrong side of it. It has created a lot of jobs. But environmental problems [indiscernible] has helped bring back a lot of jobs. It is fracking did not start in 2017 President Trump took office. It created a lot of jobs and helped us build energy independence, something we thought was a pipedream, really. Back to your calls in just a moment or two. I wanted to turn to key senate races. What were lessons learned, if any, from the Massachusetts Senate primary . Guest for a general election, i do not think there are many lessons. In important takeaways that campaigns matter, that joe kennedy started off with a big lead. Ed markey, who became more of a creature of washington in a very Effective Member of congress when he was in the house and the senate, he was able to remake him into a candidate of young people, even though he is significant old significantly older than joe kennedy is, captures a middle movement, all of this. He became the cause candidate. Joe kennedy, who is younger and more exciting, became sort of of the older establishment. Markeys campaign was effective been a 10 ord had 15 deficit into a campaign. In the senate races overall, year,his year, late last it was probably not much better ofn a one in four chance democrats getting a majority in the senate. Is reason was the senate 53. 7. Democrats would need a three and thee to get 5050 new Vice President would break the tie for them, or four seats to get up to 51, if President Trump remains elected and Vice President pence breaks the tightness senate. Democrats will lose one for sure in alabama. They need to be win four seats and win the presidency. In january, they only had four good shots at winning republican seats. In arizona, colorado, maine, but where are we now . Were in muchhose toughers shape in the beginning of the year. Be in a competitive but not that much trouble, now, she is behind in a decent number of poles we are seeing. Then we have got one more with produce, that has now become a tossup as well. One thing we are seeing is democrats are struggling in states they used to do very well in the industrial belt. Michigan, wisconsin, indiana,nia, ohio, they are doing worse now but democrats are doing better in the sun belt states where you have a lot of College Educated suburban voters moving from other parts of the country, making georgia less georgian and less southern. And virginia and texas less southern, which is why you saw democrats do so well in the term election in 2018. It was winning suburbs outside of atlanta, dallas, houston, oklahoma city, richmond, virginia, so democrats were moving up in certain states and moving and dropping down to a certain extent in other states where we are seeing a realignment. Whites with less than a four year college to greet are moving more toward the Republican Party but collegeeducated, suburban are moving away from the Republican Party toward the Democratic Party. So we are seeing alignment in the country is getting small town rural or republican. We are seeing a realignment take place in this country. Lets get a call from amy. Good morning. Good morning. Mr. Cook, i have watched you for a long time and always valued your opinion. I am thinking about the trump voter. My husband and i were in about 17 states mostly in the east. More intensity in terms of signage for trump and also ohio, we heard a woman talking to her friend who said, i will vote for trump but i would never tell a poll or anybody. My friends are for biden, i am scared, but a lot of people i know are going to vote for trump but would never say so in the polls. Two points. The first is, signs and bumper stickers have only been seen as a value to help name recognition. It really does not mean much beyond that. Until 2016, when anyone driving started seeing a lot of trump signs, the Trump Campaign think it is because he has a lot of science. Not really. Premiumlks have put a on getting signs out there and billboards, trucks going around. That has become a priority. Back inot a priority 2016. ,n terms of the shy trump voter i do not put much credence in that. I understand why people say it. Saidsay the polls all Hillary Clinton was going to win and she didnt, so people must have been lying to the polls. What do national to National Polls do . They measure the National Popular vote. Nationalthe average of polls going into election day . Hillary clinton had a lead of 3. 2 Percentage Points. What was the National Popular vote . 2. 1 percentage point lead for Hillary Clinton. 1. 1 points difference between the average and what the total vote was. That is not much. When posters and political scientists looked and said why were they off one percentage point, they found that whites with less th