Wake of the pandemic. There was a hot spot in michigan for a while. A lot of partisan feelings. Then having the military come into deal with protests, and some of the tweets President Trump has done fighting with Governor Whitmer, who was well liked michigan according to polls. At this point, things look pretty bad for him. That does not mean he could not make it back up, but comparing michigan with wisconsin and pennsylvania, other states he won closely, michigan is looking better for biden. Host lets go back to 2016, many said michigan was a blue wall for Hillary Clinton. President trump winning it by a thousand votes. Why did he win it, and what is the lesson for democrats this year . Todd from all the work i have done post 2016, looking at a lot of data, the thing that jumped out at me, neither Hillary Clinton nor President Trump were wellliked. Michigan was seen as a state democrats had won since 1988, and Hillary Clinton did not spend a lot of time there. She was not high in the state, and people did not show up. Election day, our polls showed her off a bit. On election day you had Something Like 75,000 people show up at polls who did not vote for any president ial candidate. When you are looking at a margin of 0. 2 of over 700,000 votes, that 75,000 that did not vote for a president was more than enough to throw it to trump, who had more enthusiasm in rural areas than clinton did anywhere. Host this year we have had the impeachment of President Trump, the global pandemic, the economic fallout, and now we have the black lives matter and aftermath of the death of george floyd. How is all of that playing out in your state, michigan . Todd it seems to be playing in dramatic fashion. Michigan was really the place where these protests about gubernatorial action, stayathome orders really blew up involving Governor Whitmer. She has been mentioned as a possible Vice President ial candidate for biden. She has not said she is not interested. The protest movement in michigan which has been protrump, has taken up some of those flames as well. That seems to be to the democrats benefits because polls show Governor Whitmers actions are seen as correct, things that are helping the situation. You have also had regarding the death of george floyd and black lives matter movement, we have seen a great deal of protests in detroit, and other areas. It has been tempestuous to say the least over the last couple of months. So far, that is accruing politically to the democrats benefit. Michigan being a state that is bluer in statewide elections than wisconsin and pennsylvania seems to be reverting back. There is plenty of time for the president to go back to michigan and make some changes to bring that down, but right now it seems it is a tough road for him. Host we saw the poll on the the detroit free press, did that number surprise you . Todd any 12 point lead would shock me. Six in january, the same poll had six points, biden was not in a good position in january. He has since nailed down the nomination. In march, we had our first coronavirus case, and he won the primary handily. 12 points is a big number. Think it will be 12 on election day . I would be shocked. 12, given what we are seeing in other polls nationally, that they are showing biden up in arizona and North Carolina and florida, states like ohio that are far more republican leaning than michigan. Host you cover a lot of trade issues for the the detroit free press. Who has the upper hand on that topic . Todd that will remain to be seen because President Trump has made such an issue of trade in the last election, and nafta meant a lot in michigan where autoworkers rightly or wrongly feel nafta sent a town of jobs to mexico, and they never brought them back. That is what really caused the Auto Industry jobs for years, which is evident on both sides of that. Biden, though, has supported trade deals under barack obama, had a particular kind of demeanor and rapport with workingclass voters who do not see him as quite such a globalist as maybe other democrats. There is a workingclass field to him that puts him more in line to take that fight to trump in a way different than secretary clinton. It is a very good point, i would expect trump to bash biden over the head with trade, and do it repeatedly. That would be to his benefit if the other stuff that is not to his benefit, the bellicose tweets and attacks that went too far that is the balance here. The president might have a winning argument with biden on trade in a state like michigan, all things being equal. But not all things are equal. The president is seen as a divider. His job approval numbers in michigan and elsewhere are not good. Women do not like the president. He is running at a deficit with women, Something Like 60 women are for biden at this moment. Independent women, that number is in the 70s. Trade is an incredibly important issue in a state like michigan, and will be in this election. But there are other things dragging the president down that are within his ability to change that i do not think he can change. Host lets talk about the demographics in michigan. If the Peninsula Area and grand rapids, where are the swing areas of the state . Todd the swing areas move around from place to place. In west michigan, largely republican, you have grand rapids which went for Governor Whitmer in the 2018 election. A lot of people are watching to see what happens in that area, because if it moves a bit toward biden, that is bad news for President Trump. Along the i70 Corridor North through michigan and Industrial Areas that trump turned out in droves in 2016, he is not going to lose those areas. When you are getting around that area which are bluecollar older Industrial Areas, some are conservative, but are willing to vote for a democrat because they have done it many times in the past. Those are areas to watch very carefully to see who is moving this way or that. Host how organized are the unions in michigan . Todd the unions are extremely organized. The question is whether or not there is no question some big unions, the Teachers Union will be there for biden, and he will clean up with them. There is reason to believe while leadership was in clintons camp four years ago and with biden this time, that whether the membership, the rankandfile supports him in larger numbers remains to be seen. Four years ago, there is every reason to believe President Trump did well with the rankandfile against Hillary Clinton. There is reason to believe joe biden can do better among them than she did for various demographic reasons, and the candidate he is seen as being. He will have to deliver that, and trump will go after them. Host our look at battleground state michigan. Todd spangler from the detroit free press. President trump delivers the commencement address at west point this morning. It is first time addressing the graduating class at the military academy in a new york. This year, more than 1000 cadets. There will be social distancing measures in place for the ceremony, with our live coverage at 10 00 a. M. Eastern on cspan. The d. C. Circuit court of up heard oral arguments on whether the perjury case against President Trumps former National Security advisor, michael flynn, should be dismissed. The retired general pleaded guilty to lying to the fbi about his contacts with the Russian Ambassador to the u. S. If the court declined to intervene, a hearing over the justice departments motion to dismiss the case would be held later this summer. 5143. Michael t flynn