Cspan, created by americas Cable Television companies as a Public Service and brought to you by your television provider. On tuesday, Intelligence Experts talked about Disinformation Campaigns and Political Warfare during the coronavirus pandemic. They explore tools used to spread this information and the best ways to fight against these campaigns. The center for strategic and International Studies hosted this event. Hi, everyone. Welcome to this discussion on disinformation and Political Warfare in the age of covid19. Have two outstanding experts the Senior Vice President for europe, asia and the arctic. She is the director of the Europe Program and the author of two outstanding studies on aspects of what we are going to talk about today. Have questions going to the link for this and you can ask questions. We will talk for group for 20 to 25 minutes and go to your questions. There is a component where you can ask questions. And the director of the Transnational Press object. Lets get into the Current Situation with information disinformation and then we are going to get into a little bit of history of playing off of thomass recent book active measures. We will look at the future. Start with the present and moved to the past and then get into the future thomas, why dont we start with you. Russian, chinese and u. S. Activities today, how would you characterize what is going on around the kremlin . That is tough first question ,ecause we are seeing things politicians and top officials from china and also from the United States sometimes trying spin the covid19 question, with the origin of the virus. I hesitate to call that disinformation or active measures because we are not looking at the early days. We are not looking at a system. We are looking at spontaneous spinning and lying in order to sell salvage reputations and present careers. There is a difference between intelligence, bureaucracies running up operations, access measures, Disinformation Campaigns like what we have seen in 2016 as this continues. You define how would active measures and disinformation and how to distinguish it from political leaders lying. In my book i tackle that question up front. What i am looking at in the book measuresly is active and the output of active theures is a term in 1960s. They found disinformation is not helping because it focuses the mind too much on the distinction between fault between forgery and the truth. Active measures are active when they tap into fears and existing frictions and cleavages, and then amplify something that is already existing. You usually have some element of limited to the identity of the source of information. A kgb or cia message. In some cases, some of the most important cases, there is no forgery. Some active measures a wrongful or misinformation. Information. Finally these operations when you see the memos of how their planned. That theyn objective want to achieve. Thanks. Heather, you have been watching that watching very closely what is going on in europe and how some of the lies have been spun coming out of capitals are being used in europe. Can you talk a little bit about and how chinese the europeans are doing. Heather thanks so much, seth. I think the good news here is your has been increasingly influencebout malign disinformation operations, and the creation of a Strategic Committee kitchens office has been alert to this disinformation. They are identifying the problem. In some ways, it demonstrates for europe on chinese the introduction of chinese disinformation which is been a real challenge politically here and of course the controversy in april where an initial draft and a report that was highlighted was eventually watered down a little bit because of criticism from the Chinese Government and i think again and again eu is a countering the political navigation of highlighting this information and getting this information. Europe is much more attuned to it. Had an even have historical backward looking attempts of russian disinformation that go back to 2015 in germany and in the lead up to the 2017 are limit elections and how russia is hacking into whether it is Angela Merkels emails or the christian democrats unions emails or the german parliament. We saw it in 2017 with the president ial french president ial election. They are much more attuned and alert. It is kind of the same. The challenge is the disinformation is being used as exploiting our government and leaders and our society in presenting. That is what they are amplifying. There different objective for russian and chinese disinformation for sure. I was given the report card for europe progress. They are highlighting the issue. They are recognizing it and doing what they can but the politics gets very difficult. The chinese are making this very politically difficult for europe. What are examples that you are seeing. What are examples of this surrounding covid in europe . Whether it is the origins of covid . Or other aspects . What do you think are the predominant types of misinformation disinformation, lies or other kinds of activity . Let me talk about russian use and if you move quickly to the chinese disinformation. Again, we are seeing similar patterns in the u. S. You can almost take this as transatlantic disinformation. The use of fear and confusion, so it plays on both. It also creates this is what i would argue great attempts of some classic russian disinformation going back into the 1980s operation denver and suggesting the receipt through a very successful Disinformation Campaign that a virus was caused by a u. S. Weapons, a biological laboratory. It was the cia who did it. You are seeing that coming through. The origins perhaps not coming from this is from u. S. Biological agents. There is a center in georgia which is to help discover these types of vaccines, russian disinformation, that is where the virus came from, the republic of georgia. Using the antivaccine group. Andsing groups to concern amplify their concerns, entering their chat rooms to create confusion. ,e are seeing the u. S. Origin the fanning of farm rights, extremist voices, conspiracy theorists to create that confusion, lack of trust and institutions. Double leave what you are hearing from authorities. That is chinese information buckets are slightly different. This is focused on trying to prevent criticism of the origins of the virus from wuhan, certainly. You are seeing a much more aggressive chinese posture, particularly the medically. If the government keeps any criticism, there is very focused effort. Shipment of humanitarian supplies they want to get credit for that. With the medical supplies you cannot criticize. The russians have used supplies both in the u. S. The u. S. Purchase russian medical supplies. To russiaust sent u. S. Medical supplies. The delivery of a russian Field Hospital to hit italy has some employeesn concerns, may have been intelligence specialists. Theres a lot of mistrust on both sides even when there is a humanitarian gesture that should be positive. It has a doubleedged sword. Let me turn to you about the medium that countries are using today. Most people are going to be aware of information or disinformation put out on social media. I was wondering if i can look back to heathers response. Is that ok, seth . Was then denver which kgb also codename for the infection. Sometimes this is the term. Aids isg the myth that an american bioweapon developed. It evolved out of another operation in south east asia. The goal was to distract from chemical off biological weapons and bring new Development Inside the soviet union at the time. On operation is fascinating a number of levels. One of them is they have picked up the rumor, the Conspiracy Theory that aids is an american creation. They didnt come up with it themselves. They picked it up from american conspiracy theorists in the lgbtq at that time called Gay Community where it was making the rounds already. That leads to two fascinating observations. One, sometimes the most ective active measures that is in fact also the case. The second one is imagine you are the kgb officer writing that memo. So you are a partner from germany asking them to help you spread the myth. One is, you are telling them to do it and they will not understand what is disinformation and what is correct information because it is a blend. What you see internally is a thatof self disinformation large bureaucracies when they engage in these campaigns over tors will lose the ability clearly see what is false information and what is true information. Because they are amplifying something that is already disinformation, they will often fall for temptation to exaggerate their effect. Because it is impossible to say where the original Conspiracy Theory ends and where their own amplification begins. The effect is self disinformation and self exaggeration. Eventreates a pernicious because that leaves bureaucracies to believe that they are doing here is very impactful, although it may not be. I would provoked you and our viewers here by observing that we run the risks here in the United States and the way that we discussed in 2016 to the effect of what happened for the intelligence agencies involved. Mean overstate the effectiveness of Russian Operations . Yeah. Historically the temptation was the perpetrators exaggerated their own effect internally for bureaucratic reasons. Usually the victims of didntrmation operations really play along and exaggerating the effect. In 2016, we see the rather extra extraordinaryther mueller investigation. I mean, since the election has been a hot news item, we run the risk of exaggerating and going and doing their work for them. I want to come back in a second to operation denver, thomas. Let me go to heather. Thomas raised the issue of 2016 elections. I want to give you a chance to provide your perspective on that including russian tensions. Thomas is issue of overstating the significant significance. Heather i think for me it is important to take a quick step back. Doctrine. Litary it is called new generation. It is warfare. Campaignsongoing intended to overfocus on the election period because an election is an opportunity to sow seeds of distrust. These are ongoing campaigns. The seeds of which have implanted years before. Sometimes different tools are used. Sometimes they do not need to be used. With the strategy of influence to break the internal coherence of the democratic system, so it is break, faith and trust between the governed and the government and institutions. Why is that important . Because russian disinformation, that is what makes the United States exceptional is democracy, it is constitution. When you break faith with that, you are no longer exceptional, youre the equivalent of russia. Without that distinction and with a deeply divided government and people, you are a country and a government that can be much more accommodative to russian interest. Theres is a real purpose to this. With an election, there is an important moment. These are ongoing efforts to divide society. I agree with thomas, sometimes ive always felt that if we handle this with confidence, with our allies and partners, we can overcome this, because it is the weaknesses that are we that we are offering in the russians are amplifying. If we heal our cleavages, they will have a lot less to amplify. We can talk about russian tactics until we are blue in the face, but what it comes down to is making sure we are healing the divisions within our society, and then we can turn with a projection of a positive agenda and confidence, but the russians fear our most is our democracy working in russia. To return back to that positive spirit. We cannot give them too much spirit. And for me this is in the u. S. Context and there is quite a bit of division in europe as well it is very hard to write now detect where we stop and where the russians begin. We are delegitimizing our own election today. Our elected leaders are saying daily that this election is going to be rigged. You dont need to have a foreign actor helping you anymore, because you are already delegitimizing your democracy and leaders and institutions when you cripple the judicial system and law enforcement. You have done so much damage that the russians can certainly amplify that. They are. They are using farright extremism to do that today. We are already working quite well in that path. It is very hard and in some ways we need to over judge the russians. I believe a lot of the healing and work that needs to be done andithin our own Society European society to heal some of these longstanding positions. Thanks. If i can come back briefly to in part, because some have argued there are interesting differences with what we have seen coming out of tehran, beijing, moscow and even washington, about the origins of covid19. Some have argued that it was manufactured in u. S. Laboratories. U. S. Has done the same with china, that it was manufactured in chinese laboratories. From your perspective, how was this similar or different from other campaigns . Yeah, a pandemic and aids was a pandemic in the early 1980s. It is of course the best raw material that you can wish for her and active measures. Why . Because people are generally genuinely scared. Theres a lot of divisions. Run an all you need to operation into exploited. Want tocase, i would let a little bit of time pass. When i wrote my book in the book is very ambitious. He goes from throughout the it goes from the entire cold war up to 2016. As we transition into the 1990s and with the intelligence archives closed. Documentation after 1990. Versions, output digital forensics, for example. You can see the fog rise. It becomes much harder to really come to high confidence conclusions about objectives, about success, etc. I think it is important to declare today that what we see that we do not have the visibility. We dont have visibility into the semicovert operations. Seth thomas i think it would be helpful for folks listening to perspectiveroader of how this has been done historically. Can you talk about the cold war cases. In your book you walk through a number of them, swastikas in germany, racial engineering, the whole piece counsel. Counsel. What are the similarities . Thomas lets talk but the 1959 1960 campaign that the kgb put on in west germany and around the world. It started at the newly reopened synagogue in cologne that had been reopened in september 1959. Christmas 1859, swastikas 1959, swastikas were dogged on the synagogue. Within a shorter amount of time, based on nine hundred antisemitic incidents within a space of a few weeks in germany alson france and u. K. , but in the United States in 50 different cities including new york. Cases. Ia coverage of the germany was seen as regressing into the dark times that many people thought would be behind germany. Goodperation had very evidence of this. It was an active measure. It was a provocation on the part of kg p to exploit the simmering trauma that germany strength to get out of. When i talk about this operation today, i am german myself, there will be germans to say, wait a minute, you are saying that germany needed russias help our antisemiticommit acts in the 1950s. Are you kidding . That is the point of active measures, to take something that is existing and amplify it. This campaign is the perfect example. And theres akly degree of speculation but i am confident, kgb was quickly not in a position anymore to distinguish the fake antisemitic acts from the real acts that were provoked. We know this because even east berlin there were antisemitic incidents that were draped across the wall against their own interests. This is why active measures are called active measures. They are active and they will actively shape reality. That is one of the most extraordinary examples that we see. I also want to highlight one point, and that is around the time of that operation in the early 1960s to late 1960s. We see a deescalation in the west. We see cia pulling out of the Political Warfare. Fewer forgeries, no more aggressive Front Organizations whichlin, for example, was a thing in the 1950s. We see escalation in the soviet bloc. That is a really important observation. We have no moral equivalency. You cannot excel at democracy and deescalation the same time. Seth good point. Heather, leads me to a broad question for you. ,s you look towards the future and this comes out of one of the questions that one of our viewers has asked. Do we see evidence of close u. S. Eu cooperation . There is an underlying issue also is there is substantial disagreement between many European Countries and the u. S. , but there is a broader ue when we look at the hungary, for example. How do you see u. S. Do collaboration . Is the u. S. And eu who should be cooperating the most closely. For russian disinformation, europe has been a laboratory for decades. In some ways, what caught us by surprise in 2016 is we had the audition we had the audacity and saying how could russia be so audacious and bring those tactics to the u. S. . This is exactly where we need to be together, Intelligence Services working together and really political leaders ensuring that there is a strong sense of transparency and trust. Trust of institutions and leaders and transparency into what government is doing. As thomas said, most of the disinformation is pulling into those threads that have already exist that have already existed. Our government to government linkages are the highest level. There is not the level that we should be thinking about. The future, and this is what is the example of hungary is quite perfect. That is where ongoing Disinformation Campaigns, or i would say influence activities which pulls government or leaders towards their benefactors. In hungary, close relationship between the Prime Ministe