The u. S. Could reach 16 nationally and and the Paycheck Protection Program had been helping to lunt those claims. [inaudible] im supportive of the view that each state needs to make the call themselves. The a lot of places it is easy to social distance and new york city it is really hard to social distance. The path in new york city very routes. Lowed subway one of the things a we have seen in the data that we have been analyzing is that there are a lot of counties in the country where they have a lot of essential workers so the percentage over the worse force is pretty high of people who continue to go to work and at the beginning of this crisis, the disease spread more rapidly where people were still going to work. You can see a high correlation with the opening up and spread of the disease. Now that correlation has diminished quite a bit. People have figured out in some parts of the country where it is safe to go back to work. I think that is something that is going to inch along now. Now exactly whether each state is following guidelines that dr. Birx and the team put together will have to be monitored closely. If they dont follow the guidelines they might put the citizens at risk. I dont think anyone has xplicit timing for that. But my guess is it will have to be within four weeks. That is an economic guess looking at the burn rate of ppp loans. [inaudible] could be. If you look at the initial claims, you can see millions of people have lost their jobs. You can map these to the unemployment rate. It tends to go higher than what you would get from adding them up. Some people get unemployed and dont apply for Unemployment Insurance. The only trick is this survey weeks around the week of the 12th of the month survey week is around the 12th of the month. We will have a bad on implement report the first week of next month and then another bad one the month after that because bad unemployment report next month but then another one after that. I think all of us are concerned we have got this massive shock to the economy that is unprecedented and it will be a heavy lift to get the economy going. It will be easier if we happen to get control of the virus. The longer we run this out, the harder it will be to get this thing going. That is why i am pleased to see people have decided a safe way to get economies going. The thing that is different about this is we pretty much stopped producing about everything. It is not like any normal recession things go down a few percent. It is like you turned it down to zero for everything. For example, schools, the schools dont count towards gdp if they are closed. That is Something Like 3 of gdp that goes to zero. Multiply that across every other industry and you are looking at a massive disruption. I am pleased to see the bipartisanship that helps us uild a bridge to turning the economy on but having this deal that helps us make sure there are no bottlenecks to go again. The president is optimistic about what will happen when we get going again. Im very hopeful. It will depend on the next bill. It depends on the next bill. What we have done is built a bring to the next shore but we dont know where the next shore is. Once we get there, there will have to be policy to make sure we get going again. There are some possible equilibria. One is that nobody goes back to work because they expect nobody else to go back to work. The other is everybody goes back to work because they think everybody else is. So the sentiment will pay a playing a big part of it. American people are smart and rational. We have to give people a reason to be optimistic. That is what the next step will have to be. It will be another bipartisan bill that gives people hope and solves a lot of the problems that we still see. The forecast about the psychology of people going back to the kinds of businesses that would have difficulty in it is one of the things we are working on every day to see what it looks like when we reopen. I work closely with dr. Birx and dr. Fauci to help understand the Health Component but that is not my area. My area is once we get going and it is safe to open, what problems might they face in terms of getting economy going . The kind of thing we are looking at, if ports are in places where the disease is flaring up, you have a hard time having them operating at capacity. Even if other parts are raging and doing well, the fact there is a bottleneck at the ports could slow them down. We have a massive effort to think about what do next. One of the factors you mentioned is an important thing to onsider. I can remember when i was a kid, you would walk your friend or Family Member to the gate. You didnt have a ticket and you could walk to the gate. After 9 11, security got more strenuous. We will have a lot of changes in society that are analogous to airports after 9 11. [inaudible] i cant. Im sorry. My forecast how many would have failed is about one million. I think the loans are going out nd keeping things going. In the end, i think it is going to depend very much on something we cannot control which is the virus. Here is a way to think about it. If you are a Small Business and used to making money but right now you are losing, if you expect to make money in june, your happy to keep losing money in may because you know in june you will make it up. If you dont know when you will open, you might decide to shut down so you dont lose the money in may. We have to give people like some clarity about what the future holds. The problem now is that does not exist. We dont know the endgame for the virus. That is motivation to p. P. P. Is to give people loans and dont have to make the tough choice to shut down because they dont know when we can open again. [inaudible] given the popularity of the program to the people and with everybody on the hill, if we run out of money in the program i would expect it would be easy to get more money into it. If the economy gets going, those loans will be less necessary and we wont need to put money in. It will depend how quickly we can get the economy open. It will not be all it once. At once. Something i just said in my Television Interview that is interesting, the initial claims for Unemployment Insurance are scattered around the country in a pattern uncorrelated with the disease. It is because at the federal government, we have instructed everybody to shelter in place to control the virus. That means the economic harm is sort of uniform throughout the country and higher in some places you might not expect like hawaii has the most claims because people go to vacation there but right now they are not. When places restart given geographic variation, it makes sense. That is why the task force decided to put out the guidelines to help people who feel like they are in a place that will allow them to open have guidance to do that. The economic merit and some kind of financial support. Evin the president has said the next bill, the democrats have a high priority of putting state and local assistance in. He is willing to consider that. The next bill will be important. If the democrats believe that is a very, very strong component of the bill, i believe there will be a negotiation. I met with Governor Cuomo a few days ago. We ran the numbers for new york state ourselves. We are looking at a decline in revenue of about 15 billion. The states are hurting. The political issue is some states have rainy day funds, and are not excited about helping the states that maybe were less cautious. That is a political matter and not an economic matter. The fact the states will have a massive revenue shortfall is undeniable. That is why the president is open to talking about it. [inaudible] where does country stand on the i dont know where the negotiations are, but i can lay out the economic issue. If people open up, they are going to expose citizens to more risk, if they follow the guidelines, hopefully not a lot. If one of their employees were to get sick, they could say it was an unsafe workplace and there could be lawsuits. Figuring out a way to manage it so those could happen if an employer is irresponsible, the workers should have the right to do something about that. F it is Like Community spread, maybe the litigation employers will be more likely to go out of business and then if they have protection. The economics is pretty sound. How it works out is something i think people will have to study hard. States have different laws. As a lawyer i am not sure what the federal policy would be to help protect irresponsible firms from lawsuits because some people continue to get sick after the economy opens up. But it is a serious concern, i think, that if you thought you would open up and get sick, you would lose so much money would go out of business and be less likely to open. It is a concern for people. As they think about the next phase of legislation. So. Thanks. Good to see you. Ure. Announcer cspan has turnaround clock coverage of the federal response the coronavirus pandemic and it is all available on demand at cspan. Org coronavirus. Watch white house briefings, updates from governors and state officials. Track the spread throughout the u. S. And the world with interactive map. Watch on demand any time, unfiltered at span. Org coronavirus. The Clinton Foundation hosted a discussion on the coronavirus Pandemic Response with Chelsea Clinton and seattle mayor jenny durkan. She discussed how her city handled the outbreak and well hear about some of the social disparities connected to the disease and how young people can help those in need. Good afternoon or good morning, good evening. Thank you all for being with us. Were talking about how we can learn from this covid19 crisis o build a more resilient Healthcare System and respond to the crisis and help us ensure that were moving forward on Public Health and Health Equity and Patient Health and so much more into the future. Were just so grateful for all youve taking your time to have this conversation