Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us again today. As per usual, we will be right here every day at 1 00 to make sure everybody is wellinformed with the best facts as possible so we can keep ourselves safe and healthy as we deal with the coronavirus. As you can see from the data isplayed on your screens, or will be in a second, the cases in rhode island, and the deaths in rhode island and hospitalizations continue to rise. Although it is sad, i dont want folks to panic. It is consistent with what we have expected. It is why i am giving you what i am giving you. I wish we were out of the woods. We are not quite out of the woods yet. That means the stay home order, which is in place until may 8, is something we all need to continue to obey. I know if your family is anything like my family, it is getting harder every day. We are all sick of it. We wonder if it is necessary, wearing a mask makes it even more difficult. He answers are it is necessary. It is a critical two weeks ahead. If we keep doing the great job we are doing, we will be in much better shape in two weeks than we are today. And that much closer to going back to work, opening childcare centers, opening parks, and getting two business of life again that we all want to be doing. I would just ask you to continue your heroism. If you are a health care worker, you are a hero. If you are one of us that goes to work every day, thank you. If you are just staying home, even though its hard keeping yourself isolated, you are a hero, too. You are the reason we are doing as well as we are doing and our hospitals arent full, that we dont have more fatalities than we do. So thank you. It is brutal, but you are doing it. Im proud of you, and thank you. I have been asked every day where the model is, what it looks like, where we are on the disease, what the track is, etc. I thought today, i would give you a little bit of an update on our modeling effort, our modeling team, and give you my best insight as to where i think we are, where i think we might be going. For the past six weeks, weve been trying to review the data, the signs, talk to experts, and do the best job we can for you. So i have put together a team as i said, i have 10 work streams. One of them is modeling. All they do all day is look at the numbers. It has about a dozen people on it. It includes economists, epidemiologists, toxicologists, data scientists, analysts, and computer coders. Its been a collaborative effort with the department of health, our own experts, brown university, and Brown Universitys policy lab. By the way, i want to give a huge shout out of thanks to brown university. I call you over a month ago and you gave us your very best statisticians and Public Health experts and epidemiologists. Thank you for being a great partner. We are using there are a lot of models out there. Youve seen them all. By the way, none of them is perfect. We are basing our model offers a framework that has been provided to us by john hopkins university. We reached out to Johns Hopkins and weve been validating our work with some of the experts at Johns Hopkins. That team of people that i just described, a dozen people, plus Johns Hopkins, has been consulting with the university of washington. Together, they crafted a model of where we think we are at this time. It is a combination of what we know about the virus from other countries and other communities that are ahead of us. And also the actual rhode island experience. Very important, every state is different. Every state has done social distancing differently. And so our model includes data around where its actually napping our community. Ive been reluctant to share the models and some of you have been critical of that decision. The reason ive been reluctant is because its still its not a perfect model. I dont want anybody to look at any model and think its perfect. It is not a perfect predictor of where were going. Its not a perfect predictor for a few reasons. First of all, to get any one of these lines, the statisticians do thousands of simulations. And its their best guess of which ones of those thousands of lines are most accurate. So its imprecise. Secondly, weve only been at this a few weeks. And here in rhode island, the numbers of people in the hospital on ventilators who have unfortunately passed away are actually very, very small. So, i have been reluctant to share something that is imprecise. Having said that, we have been working hard at it. It is now in a place where i eel comfortable to put something out to the public to ive you a sense of kind of where we are and where we might be going. Again, i want to say this. The single most important variable in the model is the degree of effectiveness of social distancing. Hard thing to measure, by the way. But that is what drives the model the most, any model that youre seeing out there. Here in rhode island, i put the social distancing, the stayathome order in place, just a couple of weeks ago. Any expert will tell you it takes at least 10 days from the time you put that in play to start seeing the effects of that on our hospitalization rate. And on our model hospitalization rate. The model that i think is on the screen or will be on the screen in the second, we only have a few days of ospitalization data from the point in time our social distancing has really been effective. So, i do want to caution around that. So, having said that, if this s directionally correct, weve een at it for six weeks, dozens of people around it. Were talking to everyone we know. This is directionally correct. So, the what you see on the screen are two lines. Theres a blueline. The blueline you can think of is the best guess of what we think it will look like. The blueline assumes all of the current restrictions, the stayathome order, the mask wearing, the social distancing, are in play. And were doing a pretty good job of adhering to that. Not a perfect job, but a good job of adhering to social distancing. In that scenario, we think our peak will be around may 3. That means last week of april, first week of may, approximately. And at that time, well need about 2,250 hospital beds. So, couple points. That number of hospital beds is a number that we could handle within our existing health care ystem. Every hospital has been working with us, furiously, to put in play their Surge Capacity plan within their hospital. And the 2250 will allow us to hospitalize everyone at that peak in our existing hospitals without having to go to the overflow hospitals that we are simultaneously building at the Convention Center and in cranston. It will be difficult, very difficult, probably the hospital administrators are getting a little nervous because theyre going to have to execute their surge plans, but it is possible. Above that line, on your screen, you should be seeing a redline. That redline represents what we think will happen if we stop taking social distancing seriously. And in that scenario, the peak comes sooner, probably closer to april 27, and obviously the peak is much higher. In that scenario, well need closer to 4,300 hospital beds. We are working hard to make sure that we would have that many beds. Were not quite there yet, but i want to say this. I dont think were going to be there. If you say to me, governor, do think were going to be the blueline or the redline . I dont think were going to be the blue the redline. You because are doing a great job. The biggest difference between he blueline and the redline is the degree to which we obey the social distancing stayathome order. So for those of you who wonder, does it really matter . It really matters. Were talking double the number of deaths, double the number of hospital beds. Determined by what we do together as a community right now in the next couple of weeks. My mantra from day one in managing this crisis and motivating my team has been that we will prepare for the worst and work for the best. So, i want you to know, rhode island, thats what weve done. And because of it, were in pretty good shape. Weve been preparing for the worst. If we need to, well be ready with over 3500 hospital beds in the next few weeks. But because weve all been working our tails off, including you, and those of you that are staying at home, teaching your kids at home, struggling through this, wearing your masks, washing your hands because of you, i dont think were going to see that redline. Now let me tell you this. A week ago, that redline looked a lot worse. A week ago, or 10 days ago, when we were crunching through the model, that peak was a lot higher. And that, i no longer worry about that anymore. I no longer worry about what i was a week ago, which was six or 7000 people in the hospital. Now i think that top line of 4300 beds, that could happen. That could absolutely happen. If everybody on a Beautiful Day goes to the part, if we all start park, if we all start getting a little lazy, going out, congregating, then well look like the redline. However, if we keep doing what were doing, stayathome, washing our hands, working from home, i actually think our Actual Experience will be even better than the blueline. And so thats what im working for. Im preparing for the worst, but i am working to beat that blueline, and i want you to do that with me. Because if you do, we can all go back to work sooner, we can all go back to school sooner, we can breathe a sigh of relief, and we dont have to begin these press conferences every day with horrible numbers of people sick and dying. So i hope and a couple of weeks i can come back to with a different set of lines and say, way to go rhode island. Were below that blueline. Our system is not overwhelmed. And we see real light at the end of the tunnel. That i wanted you to see that your hard work is already paying off, paying off hugely. Now for some of you, some of my family makes fun of me because im a data geek. One of them is an economics so i kind of get into the numbers. But if youre not interested in the numbers, youre not a data geek, youre saying what does this mean for me . First of all, i think were doing well. I think were doing very ell. I think we clamped down quickly. I think we did it in a smart, targeted way. And as a result, were in a better shape than we wouldve been. And again, 10 days ago, that model, the redline was a much higher number. And i think our Actual Experience two weeks from now is going to be better than the blueline if you all keep doing the hard work of staying at home. Sounds easy. All you have to do is stay at home. It is really hard. Secondly, the peak is a few weeks away. I am not going to pretend its precisely on may 3 or april 27. But i know its not behind us and i know its kind of end of pril, early may. It also means these are very reliminary data. Again, our model is based on hospitalization rates. By the way, what have we done that, versus say, infection rates . Because we know with certainty how many people are in the hospital. We know that. We dont really know the infection rate because we dont really know exactly how many people have this. We definitely know how many people are in the hospital. But we have very limited data on what the hospitalization rate is like since we put in the stayathome order. So although that is like the mercedesbenz of models, we put so much effort into it and so much brilliant people around, its only as good as the assumptions and the data. We have limited data. And again, the final key point is the single biggest variable is the effectiveness of social distancing. Thats not all that matters, but thats the biggest variable. So, the real take away, if you remember nothing else from today, social distancing is working. Social distancing is saving lives. And if you hang in there a couple more weeks, we will be in a much, much better place because of social distancing, because of all your effort. I think of what were doing here is a race, right . So when i say were planning for the worst and hoping for the best, its a race. Were in a race against this virus. A race to put a lid on the virus while were racing is ours we can to prepare our Health Care System for a surge. And the race that weve been running is giving up testing capacity, purchasing ppe, buying ventilators, adding extra hospital beds, getting folks to figure out extra ways to staff these extra hospitals. Thats a race weve been running. And i will tell you, when we start to reopen the economy, youre going to go up. Its going to happen. Social distancing is whats saving us. Hat cant be that way forever. But when we start to reopen, we have the hospital beds, we have the testing, we have a lot more information. Were a lot closer to treatment. We have the ppe, etc. , etc. To that point, i want to wrap this up by saying if you are a Health Care Professional who is not working fulltime, if you are a parttime worker, a recent graduate, a soon to graduate nursing school, a resident, a medical student, a retired physician, a retired herapist, a retired nurse, please go to riresponds. Org and sign up and let us know that youre willing to help, because it is almost certain were going to need extra people to staff beds as we go over the months to come. So, thats what we have it for modeling. And in a couple weeks, ill provide another update. Many of you are probably wondering whats going on with school. And i had hoped to make an announcement this week. You do know, or i will remind you, that we committed to distancelearning through the end of april. I had hoped to be able to make an announcement this week, giving guidance for the rest of the school year. But im going to hold off on that until probably next week. And im sorry that thats frustrating because i know everybody wants to plan. But im going to be very honest with you. This is a huge decision. This is a huge decision. Not only are we talking about 142,000 school kids and all of the Student Teachers and custodians and folks that work in the buildings, but its also childcare. Its very, very difficult for people to work if schools are closed, particularly for young children, and they dont have childcare. So, it weighs on me and i want to get it right, or want to do the best job i can to get it right. This model shows, and i tracked it constantly every day, things are changing. As i said, were in a much better position today than we were a week ago. If everyone keeps doing a great job, i think well be in a better position in a week than we are now, in two weeks then we are now. So, i wish we had an answer today. Im sorry if thats frustrating to educators and parents. But i need a little more time to look at the evidence, to look at the facts. I am not willing to throw in the towel yet and say school is out for the rest of the year. I dont know if thats necessary and i dont know if thats the right thing to do for rhode island, for all Rhode Islanders, parents, kids, educators. So im going to hold steady for where we are, distancelearning until the end of april. Ill be back next week with more guidance. As i say, im not ready to throw in the towel. I will say this. I get daily reports on distancelearning and youre doing a fantastic job. Ive been talking to principles, educators principals, educators, superintendents, parents. This is an easy. Im not going to pretend isnt easy. Im not going to pretend this is easy. I have many parents working from home, trying to educate your kids. Thank you. You are really heroes out there. Teachers are stretching the limits of their creativity. Same with principals and superintendents. But the fact is youre doing a fantastic job. Attendance is up, engagement rates are up, and children are learning. There is nearly a dozen states that said no school for the rest of the year. There are many states that havent even tried with distancelearning. Youre doing it and youre doing a great job. You deserve more guidance. You deserve an opportunity to plan, and im asking you for another week or so before i can give you that guidance. One of the obviously most horrible parts of dealing with this virus is that too many people are out of work. It was a necessary response and one that is taking a toll on americans all across the country. Here in rhode island, that is also true. We have about 160,000 Rhode Islanders who have filed for unemployment since this began. And to those of you, and there are many of you who are struggling financially, i want you to know that we are doing everything we know how to do, everything we can do to support you financially. And were going to continue to come up with additional ways to help you, more loan programs for small businesses, more tech support for small businesses, Better Benefits for folks, were quicker access to benefits for folks who are unemployed. For those of you who still have your jobs, i need you to be brave. I need you to be brave. If you have to go to work, go to work. Im not saying its easy. I know youre nervous. I know youre anxious. If youre a health care worker, that is triply so. But we need to be brave together. Ran and if you are on the front lines or youre one of us who goes to work, people are relying on you, and i need you to continue to go to work. And we need to continue to work hard to make sure if you are in the health care field, you have the proper protections that you need so that you can be safe. Even though we have 160,000 people out of work, there are Many Companies who are, believe it or not, struggling to find employees. And a lot of that is because people are afraid to go to work. Which is why im asking you to be brave. There are over 200,000 openings in rhode island for jobs that are critical in our fight against the virus, health care jobs, Grocery Store jobs pharmacy jobs, manufacturing jobs, and more. So in an effort to match people unemployed with the 200,000 job openings, we created a partnership with the department of training and skills for rhode island future and the commerce department. And as of today, we launched a state jobseeking platform to help connect Rhode Islanders to these positions. So as of today, if youre looking for a job, or if youre an employer struggling to fill open positions, i want you to go to employri. Org. Employri. Org. Check it out. Theyre hiring immediately. If youre a manufacturer or company that struggling, you can go there and its a matching function. We want to make sure those of you who can work can work. And i know its a really tough time to hire folks so were going to do everything we can to help you. Ok, so that was a lot of information. Dr. Alexander scott has more information and then we can go to questions. Dr. Scott thank you, governor. Good afternoon. Were hearing what the governor presented on the modeling. I also want to than