The tribune has invited texans from all corners of the state to open congress. Thank you for joining this event. Forso want to thank pfizer sponsoring the event today. My colleagues and i are excited to convene important conversations in the politico tent, including exchange with the freedom caucus. How to fix american politics is after that. 2020 and the border will be third, and then finally agriculture in the modern world. Stick around for all of those things. Our first conversation of the day, i am honored to be sitting with this mostly distinguished panel of three of the Top Republican strategists in the country, these guys were Campaign Managers for the job campaign, the Marco Rubio Campaign and the Ted Cruz Campaign respectively. They are danny diaz. [applause] terry sullivan. [applause] a little less enthusiasm for terry. Please clap. Jethro jeff roe. Joined bypposed to be a fourth guest, the Campaign Manager for john kasichs president ial campaign, but she has run into some flight difficulties and could not make it today. Floodgates to the the antijohn kasich abuse these other three were planning. Ok . Everybody here is good . Maybe not quite so much . Lets jump into it. We concluded our last conversation, we had a great Panel Discussion with these folks some months ago and we concluded the Panel Conversation about talking among other things among the about the changing demographics in america and specifically how that would shape the devil ground map heading into 2020. We are in texas and i want to start with texas and talk to you 14s about where we are months out from election day, where we are specifically as this pertains to texas being competitive in the general election next year. If you all were responsible for running the campaign of the eventual democratic nominee, how heavily would you be investing in texas, preparing to invest in texas, and how real of a possibility is therefore a democrat to turn the state blue in november . Trumps low watermark here would be plus seven, high watermark is probably 12. But i would send early people, release early state polling, included in barnstorming. I would act with the smallest amount of resources possible that i was going to hear to be here all the time. Texas will never actually be blue but it is likely in the next 48 years that it will be purple and competitive. We are seeing the early advancement of that with the 2018 cycle and you can see it with the president s numbers, his job approval and whatnot. If everybody votes in texas, republicans win by 10 and in a president ial race, everybody votes. You had near president ial turnout in 2018. But explain to folks who may be listening to you but they heard a congressman say the other day that this is now a 5050 state next november. You disagree with that fundamentally why . Politicians are usually wrong, thats why they hire us to run campaigns. I dont really care what politicians say. Year, 8. 6 Million People voted. 10. 5, 11 million, in that neighborhood will vote. If everybody votes, you have a wipeout. A lot of people think there is new growth coming into texas and it is all democrats. I have said before democrats dont just pick up and move to california move from california. Where freedom, its dying breath will be in texas. They like the jobs and the opportunities that dont happen on the coast like it does here. Its not just democrats moving in, it is republicans moving in. Withruz has done better people who had lived here 10 years or less against beto. Those are statistics that will get drowned out, but the reality is texas is red. It will be purple because of the nonwhite voting increase in texas. If there is Immigration Reform that legalizes illegal votes, it could happen. It would be more purple this year than before. But it is not. Do either of you disagree . No. From my perspective politically, you might need to do a head fake with respect to texas. Arent know how any people can we get their microphones up . Political need from a perspective a head fake concerning texas. I find it hard to believe that it will be on the map. Ofre was a bit of an element surprise in 2018. There is no element of surprise and 2020. And toasically a country run a Real Campaign here cost real money. The money spent here is not money spent in phoenix or atlanta, which would be more legitimate pickup opportunities than spending money in dallas and houston and austin. From my perspective, i find it hard to believe that they would make a Meaningful Play here. Georgia, that are pickup opportunities for democrats . Absolutely. , clearly it is not a swing state because ted cruz was reelected. It is a solid red state. Maybe it is trending less solid , but it is not anything it will be several election cycles before there is anything meaningful. Bias, thet is this hispanic population. Guess what . A large ocean of the hispanic population in texas is fifthgeneration texan. This is not the hispanic population you will run into in other parts of the country. Is oversimplifying to say the growing hispanics means democrats will win here. Here ast time we got got together, it was on the eve of the first democratic president ial debate and we were gaming out what the primary on the democratic side would look like as well as the very crowded, somewhat chaotic primary look like for republicans in 2016. There are similarities and differences. One of the similarities we noticed is how joe biden as a candidate reminded us in a not insignificant way of a jet bush. Jeb. Bush. Treadden is beginning to water a little bit. His rivals sensing some vulnerability today they did not sense two or three months ago. I want to take that to you, danny. You were looking at this a couple of months ago and giving some warnings to the Biden Campaign about avoiding the ince that jeb bush suffered 2016. How do you assess that they are running that campaign strategically and do you see his current downward ejector he as a blip or is he in trouble . The reality is it is hard to be the front runner. Our caseare on top, in you have 16 other people shooting at you. In his case, over 20 people. Is, he has been fairly durable, to be candid, considering his performance thus far. A healthierained lead on the National Front and he has seen slippage on the state front. Youre talking double digits in New Hampshire, double digits in south carolina. He has maintained some durability, but at the end of the day, the question i am asking myself is how does he add to the downward trend . You look at any of the numbers, what is happening is he has an enthusiasm gap, number one. Number two, just as problematic warren is the second choice and he is becoming less of a second choice. A first choice, and in some ways, there is more support , more firmness around the first choice, and she is a little softer in some of these early states, but she is the second choice for a lot of voters, and her energy level is on the upward trajectory and his energy level is on the downward trajectory, and the question to be asked is what is he going to do about the current direction of the race . Jebhat do you guys think of today versus the outset of the race . Biden or jeb . Sorry, that is how interchangeable they are. We can save some shots for jeb at the end. What do you make of biden today . We hearing almost a little bit of a panic narrative. There was a reporter yesterday from cnbc who tweeted out that Biden Campaign, sources have told him that they were already bracing to lose iowa and New Hampshire, which i call bs on, but clearly there is a creeping sense that they have to fix this. To dannys point, that they need to do something to stop the bleeding. How worried would you be if you were running joe bidens campaign right now . I think it is impressive how well they have hung on. At the end of the day, he has dropped in the margin of error if you look at where his polling is now, other candidates have gone up and he has not sunk much at all. Hes done a very good job. He had everything stacked against him, being the front runner, he is more moderate than the rest of his party. , if there of the day was ever a reason to believe he was going to tank right out of the gate, and theyve done a good job of surviving this stuff, this crap about insider says that is bs. It was probably some donors friend who texted somebody. Who cares . I think they have done a smart job of running the kind of campaign they need to run. His only chance is to stay the front runner. Danny and terry are not ready to push the panic button inside the Biden Campaign. If you are running it, how worried are you . It is over. Chance of better being the democratic nominee than he does. The only thing that could save 35 . You are not an awardwinning offer . You look much older than that. [laughter] think, when you made the jeb analogy, when he was slowly eking out, it wasnt leakg w. His overall numbers were higher but in early states he was eroding. Biden is taking a media hit every day. Hes had 100 days of bad news and hes going to have another hundred days of bad news. Democrats now are worried that the one thing he has going, electability is full gold and ls gold in the politics. Democrats think the president will be impeached and they need to elect someone who share their values and biden is not the safe choice anymore to beat trump. That is no longer his narrative. Are going to lose iowa and New Hampshire and think you will hold south carolina, that is a bad strategy. The post and courier had him at 46 in may. They have him at 36 in august. He is on a downward decline. He has to address that. The way he may address that is guynecessarily lifting your up but by making sure that Elizabeth Warren is in the barrel and she gets the level of scrutiny in the next four or five months that he has gotten over the previous for five months. Smarthink that is a point, what matters as much as anything, if the limelight comes off of him, that helps them. We are about ready to impeach a president over hunter biden, i dont think the limelight is coming off. I call bs on that. At the end of the day, everybody else has gone the past. There has been no scrutiny of Elizabeth Warren and her policies and ideas in the past six months. It is going to be her turn in the barrel and that level of scrutiny for her, and yes, there will still be scrutiny on him, but it will bring her numbers down a little bit. The last time we talked i think i said it was a rose garden strategy and it doesnt work. You see him doing one event per day. Dollart raise small funds like the others so he has to do fundraisers. It is hard to do, and is high octane, you have to be fast, your entire operation has to go there, security issues. An event per day is some diner he is stopping to on the way to a fundraiser. Way ofs an old school looking at things. How many events did donald trump need to win the election . Donald trump have saturation Media Coverage that joe biden is not going to get. Abouts is the point, its media impressions and if joe biden can get more media impressions than anyone else. Thesnbc has chosen who nominee is, just like fox. Irs. C chooses the look at the onair talent at night. Take a look at the daytime coverage. Try and find in the last 100 days the last about Elizabeth Warren story. You cannot find one. Measure media mentions on msnbc, which is 4 million of their 10 million voters watch every day. Try and find about Elizabeth Warren story. The three of you were bullish on a couple of people a few months ago. On the eve of the democratic debates, we were handicapping s thing, and you talked at about, harris about kamala , heis, Pete Buttigieg thought he could really take off. None of you were really high at that point on war and because of some of her vulnerabilities and the rocky start to her campaign. How impressed have you been with the way she has taken off, and how durable is it . If you are running her campaign, do you worry she has peaked too soon . The numbers show that her voters are not sold on her yet. They can be persuaded to move off of her. Biden, is not an entirely known quantity. You have to paint a portrait of her to those voters. New information. Information they have not seen, information they have not heard, you have to drive. I still think, and it was my promise that kamala needs to hang around because if biden comes down, were talking south carolina, biden comes down, there is a lot of room for her to maneuver and that sort of situation. I dont know that she controls her own fate, all i am saying is you cant take your eyes off of her because of the lane she is in and who occupies that lane. Deathmatchere is the. She is cleaning his clock. Share. Eating his vote we ask what is biden going to do to change the dynamics of the race . What is bernie going to do to change the dynamics for himself . He is the godfather of medicare for all and all of these parties, and warren is dancing on these, and she is playing politics. He is going to have to figure that out. She is blossoming. In politics, president ial politics, have second acts. There will be somebody in this field that will get a second act three or four months from now. Buttigieg, hee has done an amazing job of hanging around. Of a spikettle bit but he did not settle back down that much. Mayor of aho is small town, he has done an amazing job and i think it has been out of raw political talents. Standpoint,ational a telegenic standpoint, he works for the Democratic Party. I think he might end up, ironically, gaining more from a biden coming down and harris than harris. Well as i not done as think anyone thought she would. Her campaign has been a little bit boring. As a candidate, she is not as dynamic. She checks a lot of boxes but shes not a dynamic candidate. Here is why. Whether you voted for marco or not, or you secretly told me you liked marco, at the end of the day, you listen to him and you are like, i like that, he motivates me, he inspires me. Even if you disagree with him. I dont see where she is inspiring anybody. People are going to have opportunities to have moments and it is way too early. Heres the thing with Kamala Harris if i am running a campaign. The currency of a president ial campaign is moments. We get stuck in the turn of the screw every day with a new cycle, but it is the moment that breaks through that people remember. Kamala harris taking down joe biden in the first debate is the only real moment we have had so far, and my opinion. She did not capitalize on it in the way she needs to. And thethat moment Media Coverage and the tshirts printed and the donations coming in, the small dollar money that flooded into her campaign and a month later, she is back in the pulling, that would be concerning to me. I think an important part of that is that it was a fabricated moment. Any kind of cotton candy hi she got was immediately erased when people said wait a minute, they did not believe joe biden was a racist and they did not believe that she believed joe biden was a racist. It was a great point that she rehearsed in a debate prep. It was great and then it was like wait a minute, thats not fair, joe biden is not a racist. I think she paid a price on the tail end. What matters is perceived authenticity and it did not seem authentic. It seemed contrived. I think that was rubios problem. I also think its hard to have a moment in june that carries much at all. The fact is we had 20 Million People watching the first bait 14. They had , there of the ballyhoo arent a lot of people paying attention yet. Small dollars fueling the campaign, small dollars that are required to make debate stages, and you have all of these people way outside their comfort zones come away left of where they would ever naturally billsnators cosponsoring they could have cosponsored at any time during the career and they do it the day before they go on a road trip. You have a bunch of characters acting out of character and they all know it. They are faking if youd it seems pretty mundane, which is why biden hangs on as more durable than he shouldve been. But danny is right. Just like baseball and the playoffs, just like the ncaa tournament, youve got to get hot at the right time. The top five could all get hot. I dont think anybody outside the top five has any gas in the tank. A few months ago, note he thought she would have made it. Her issue is she is not growing on this stuff. Her performance is not improving on the stump. That is her problem. But the identity politics is superstrong on their side so counting her out is a fools errand. Lets get to warren for a moment. The energy you are seeing on the ground for her i think is unrivaled on the democratic side at this point and it is growing. The white house in the president s team, they were not concerned about warren for a five month ago. They were dismissive in many cases of warren for five months ago. They thought please lord, make her the nominee, we would love to face Elizabeth Warren. I can tell you from conversations with those same people, theres a lot more concern now than there was then. You mean to tell me that trumps political operation didnt have their finger on the pulse . That is shocking. If you guys are running the white house political shop, if you are brat par scale brad parscale, what are you thinking . She is a wreck for the democrats. Out, if you want to pick a freaky looking liberal and make them a College Professor and have them fake beer, it is her. She is literally in the encyclopedia under liberal hipster professor. That is great. But what is the implication . Try that out in lubbock, try that out outside of medicine in wisconsin. Try it in alabama. In pennsylvania. She does not sell anywhere. She sells to a very eclectic, liberal base and that is why you see her, she is the most clear and consistent and doesnt look like a freak show like bernie does, so she is a newer version, see is she is 70. A newer version of bernie. Bernie got 70 in the primary last time. The most liberal, acceptable candidate will be a strong contender in the primary and have no chance in the general. Hillary they will win 40 states if Elizabeth Warren is the nominee. If he wasntg, gay, we wouldnt be talking about him. Put them on a ticket, blow out. You think so . Are you guys that bearish on warren . No. I think they run a smart campaign. I think she is an awkward all te, i agree with without all the namecalling and descriptors. Into,k she is coming becoming comfortable in her own skin now. A lot of what she was doing was contrived and awkward, but it is better. I dont disagree but it is better, and at the end of the day, americans want to elect a president they feel they can have a beer with and identify with. If you look back historically, it is always the candidate who is more relatable. Sometimes neither one of them are relatable. At the end of the day, Hillary Clinton was more awkward than donald trump. If you wanted someone over to your house, you wanted the crazy guy who said crazy things you have a beer with. I think her problem will be at the end of the day, can she be more relatable and comfortable in her own skin than trump . That will be a problem for her. I dont think the blowout thing politics and demographics dont line up for 40 state logs anymore. These guys have both talked style in handicapping warrens abilities to wage a competitive general election against rome, but a lot of democrats, they would be more worried about substance and the question of the middle class tax hike that she has danced around the last few months. They would be worried about eliminating private insurance, et cetera. If you are republican strategist trying to defeat a nominee Elizabeth Warren, and specifically charged with running trumps campaign, because we know the way he operates stylistically, how you go about attacking her in a general election . Inwe were in New Hampshire 2015 my and if you drove outside of manchester and drove north, you saw two things, bernie signs and trump signs. You saw vfw halls too. From the perspective of trump protecting those northern states, there is a chance she could appeal to those kind of color workers. Bluecollar workers. Their strategic imperative needs to be to hold that line, you cant win the war without holding that line. These are bluecollar, lower income, lower educated workers who have gone from obama to trump. These are voters that move. They have to hold that line at all costs. Number two is he is probably one of the best counter punters we have ever seen in politics. At the end of the day, it is mano a mano. He is, for better or worse, pretty well defined. She is undefined. People dont know Elizabeth Warren. Drive theshould do is policy piece on the socialism, left of center, extreme aspect of her agenda and the impact it will have. Bluecollar workers in those states, michigan, pennsylvania and wisconsin. I think they will have a helluva time winning wisconsin. Andally think michigan pennsylvania, if they can do that effectively, the mathematics for them improved tremendously. Campaigns matter. Theyve got more money, they are doing more voter contact. She is going to need to walk in and remake the Democratic Party overnight to run the grassroots operation necessary to win when we already have one foot in the door in my opinion. I want to talk about those states and warns appeal. I think there is a bit of a disconnect. On the one hand, she is a liberal College Professor and thats how she has been painted by republicans over the years. She is viewed thats the way she she is. Thats the way she sells herself. She is for socialized medicine and is a College Professor. But she is a low income comes from a low income family, she put herself through college. She had some health with the help with the admissions process. We are not going to go down that road. The disconnect, i have been on the stump with her, and i think there is an initial, visceral reaction you will see some voters have to hurt in the first five minutes that they are listening to her, i have seen it firsthand. By the end of some of her talks, you have big dudes in camouflage hats crying. She has a way of connecting with people. Tucker colson did a segment about this. Trump people are underestimating her at their own risk because she has an ability to connect on economic populism. In any other vessel, that is a right that is right. Just not her. You dont think she can close it . Any other person on the stage with the same message and ability to connect. Joe biden is a terrible outcome for us. Im talking about the vessel. The vestige i got. Trump carries the Electoral College by three states, michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania. Trump wantses to treat him like a political fewerenon, but he won votes in 2016 that mitt romney in 2012. Is it trump winning the state or hillary losing . I think theres no question. The issue for warren or biden or any of these folks is if you want to concentrate on michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania, even if you forget about florida and North Carolina, if you flip those three states, you win the presidency. You feel like biden is a slamdunk in those states . I dont want to say slamdunk but he is a big problem. You think he is a slamdunk . Those three states. I dont know how trump would beat him in those states. If biden is the nominee, he wins. Highly likely to win if he is the nine money the nominee. Michigan elected gretchen witmer. Effectiveealing, democratic governor. That is a problem. Have the guy in wisconsin. I cannot express enough, wayne county is going to be a problem. The spreadthe cover in places like macomb or he cant win in michigan. Economic,e bluecollar areas. He was not that far off and New Hampshire, she was not that far off in arizona. There are ways to work the math and different scenarios, but these three, thats what people will be watching on election day, 100 . If you look at those states, every one of those days, pennsylvania, wisconsin, throw hadlorida, those states all a republican running for senate who outperformed trump on the ballot. None of those states have a republican running for senate this time. There is no marco rubio, pat toomey to drug trump across the line and have the suburban voters in those places say he is kind of offensive but i will vote for the Senate Candidate so i might as well vote party ticket. You talked about electability being fools gold. I think some of the leg worn, ofebody bernie you think summary like warren or bernie. In michigan, trump won by 10,000 votes and hiller and Hillary Clinton unperformed barack obama. She doesnt turn out College Educated white women and black voters. If you have a democrat who performs at marginally better levels than clinton in 2016 trump is in real trouble. Is hard to see his hes see his ceiling getting higher in a state like michigan. Do you agree . I do. That is like rerunning the last campaign. It has no bearing. We know if you are a republican or centerright, you have a reason to vote for him you did not have before. Before it was simply the lesser of two evils. Now youre making a choice for the future of the country. I did not know when i voted for him what i was going to get. I thought there was an outside chance he would put his sister on the supreme court. I didnt think he would care about prolife judges. There was not a lot of energy. Who you do not want to listen to for the next four years, and she was worse than him. This is a different thing. If you are a centerright person, you have something in the last four years that you can boldly go fight for in the next campaign. Much different. If that is the case, devils advocate, why in the state of michigan last fall do you have the Governors Mansion flip . You have two congressional seats flip, the ag, every meaningful statewide office. You had about 50 turnout, which is historic. We havent seen turnout like that since 1914. The turnout, collegeeducated, younger and more diverse. Say 2020, turnout is 65plus. Voters will focus on those people like a laser beam. If i turne difference those people out, i will find and register additional people and thats how i get there. You have to look at who showed up and who didnt and 2018 p the people who did not show up and 2018 were his voters. They will show up in 2020 the reasons he gave, it is a given. If they can get the turnout even higher on their end, there is again. But i think there is a discounting of his base. He is at 90 with Republican Voters. These people are going to show up on his behalf. Im sure this is a phenomenon you have paid attention to, there is a world in which you can see how somebodys Approval Rating with self identified Republican Voters is high but the party itself is shrinking simultaneously. That is a danger for trump, for both parties. Especially when you self ideas a republican. Self id as a republic. More people are embarrassed. Just under middleclass, all the way up to highend. Family ofnd dollars, four, you are republican. Now trump has realigned the party and brought the number down. Annualyou have 150,000 income, a family of four, youre probably going to vote democrat. We are getting people, he is getting people that are not behaviorally republican. He is getting the lower middle class. Hes also losing people. He is getting the poor democrats. Thats why the realignment is happening. The Republican Party might be smaller among Democrat Party is smaller too. The realignment is interesting and lets spend a minute on this. The issue is, when you see a few months ago, the trump rally where people are chanting sent her back, it a classic example. I was talking to somebody on the trump Political Team and his concern was look, we fire up the base with this kind of stuff, that for everyone base voter we mobilize with this kind of thing, do we alienate traditionally republican voter in the suburbs with a two car garage, they have pulled the lever for republicans like clockwork. And that is the issue. To dannys point, its not the base they are firing up with that, trump gets it. He is firing up the people in Macomb County, the blue, lower middle class swing voters who care about the economy that feel like people are taking their jobs and shipping them overseas. Suburban swing mom base voters. Guess what, he has to do it . Guess who else has to do it . Elizabeth warren if she is the nominee. She has to say hello government takeover of the Education CenterEducation System and Health Care System is a good idea. Nobody is paying attention to it but they will. We will assign a number per household, per person on what the American Economy looks like in her view and i find it hard to believe people will support it. You mentioned Macomb County. Lets stick with this for a moment. Home to they is fabled reagan democrats, written about in the 1980s. I grew up in the next county. Talk about fighting the next war, Macomb County is no longer the bellwether for michigan. It will be an open county. These are counties that have high percentages of white color, collegeeducated workers that commute to detroit, southfield and elsewhere, and in those counties, thats where you have these two congressional districts flip in michigan by two Young Democratic candidates that ran really good centrist campaigns and they unseated him, republicans who had gotten unseated incumbent republicans who had gotten fat and happy. Are you worried about somebody like warren not being able to connect with the suburban affluent voters, they were willing to vote for a blue dog democrat, but are they willing to vote for a progressive democrat . This is the strategy of it all. I think trump needs to vilify his opponent in Oakland County to make them think this is not our kind of guy, we think he is offensive, he says awful things, but at least hes not a socialist or this or that. But he is going to get more votes he will not win macomb, but he will get more votes out of macomb than any traditional republican. That is the math for him. But he will lose more in the other counties than a traditional republican. Not if you can make the issue his opponent. He does and amazing job, he is at his best politically when he has an opponent. When he doesnt, he is a hot mess. When he has an opponent to focus on, he gets really good, and he will make them the issue in the open counties of the world. I want to do a lightning round and i am going to name a democratic president ial candidate who is still technically in the race right now and i am reminded almost every day of somebody who is theoretically still running but we forget. I want you to tell me dead or alive. Dead they have no chance, alive they have a slight chance that they will resurrect themselves. Like Mike Huckabee and rick santorum. Im talking about for the democratic nomination. Lets start with Pete Buttigieg. Dead or alive . Alive. Alive. Barely alive. There is no chance he will be the nominee. There is a marginal chance. Kamala. Alive. Alive. Alive. You have been more bearish on this. I believe she checks a lot of boxes for them and if biden declines, she has the opportunity. Whether she takes the opportunity is something else, but i think she is alive. Beto. Who . Robert francis. He lost his base. The media. I thought they might come back during the tragedy in el paso. He started talking about guns and trump and i thought he had a second act, but that was fleeting. On his vanity road trip and he doesnt have a chance. Perfect example of modernday politics. He was sexy before because of who he was running against than who he was. He was running against darth vader himself. Is playing air drums and the whataburger drivethrough, who does that . He was a caricature and never alive candidate. A the next time he does facebook alive, nobody is going to watch. Im assuming you will all say bernie is alive, but are you surprised the degree to which he has struggled at this point in the race . You do have statewide polling that still shows he is hanging around the mid teens or high teens, but it is difficult to see with elizabeth warring continuing to steal his bow share, it is difficult to see his path to the nomination unless she stumbles in a big way. How do you see him . Alive and well. His image is still good. He is getting chomped at on both sides but he is the most dominant liberal and a liberal turnout election and he has a Million People giving him 25 every month. He is way alive and can outlast everybody. But he is not going to take anything back. As we all learned, when your strategy relies on somebody else failing, if not a good strategy. Because of that, he probably wont make it. Creek he cannot create his own wave, he has to ride other peoples. I think he is alive. But the problem for him is you cant put lightning in a bottle a second time. And isnew and energetic that 10 seconds or 10 minutes . Ok. He is alive but its going to be tough for him. Know the playe i for him but he has the most money, the most donors, and people have voted for him before. He has a play for sure. You just talked about the strategy of waiting for somebody to defeat themselves, which i think a lot of you were guilty of with trump. With the exception of jeb. He went after trump early. Rubio and cruz were operating under a strategy that either trump would not last or he did not want to last and eventually he would not be there in iowa. I still dont think he wanted to last. Howut are you surprised at nice the democratic primary has been so far . Latew is still only september, but at this point in late september, you guys were shoveling off on ben carson. Are you surprised at how nice they are playing with each other . I dont know if they are doing that with each other now or not. It is a different thing. The negative works. Nobody wants to go first. Somebody is going to have to strap the proverbial bomb to their chest. Eric swalwell did that. Somebody has to do it with stature. We saw what happened with kamala when she did it. There is a little risk of going first. Enough. W is fluid moveont have to make that in september, you have to make the move in december. I disagree completely. I think at this point in time, we were nice to each other on the debate stage. We were all civil. The republican debates . Jeb and marco were at each other in colorado. But think about it. T was here we go. This is what the people came to see. But no, at the end of the day , early on in the debates, you had harris calling biden a racist. You had other candidates calling people shows the list people socialist. They are trading plenty of paint. Socialistr thing, the how are you going to pay for it. But the people viable to win the nomination in your view, nobody has laid a finger on warren. You punch up, not down. Until now, if you went after warren, it was hunting down. Everybody was going after biden. She is in the hot seat now. It will be we will go after her. I was exposed to some republican centric things. Now,u look on paper right the fundamentals of the reelection campaign, you have unemployment low, the economy doing really well, everyones 401 k is writing. Is rising. Theres no reason that the incumbent president could not get more than 43 approval. What is the one thing, if youve got his ear, and you can corner him and theres a chance he will listen to your advice, what is the one thing you tell him to say, mr. President , you got to get out of your own way and this is what i want you to stop doing. What do you tell him . Impeachment. It provides such an opportunity that otherwise he would not have. Impeachment is like a turtle on the fence post. You dont know how i got there, clearly somebody did it, it is bs, you dont want to be the one caught taking it down. This is his opportunity. Seats go into swing house and put those people where democrats will have to be the ones to kill impeachment, not republicans in the senate. He can win the impeachment fight. If he wins that in a real way, all of the underfunded other fundamentals are too strong. Remember the seven things that happen and someone will win. That guy with, trump will be reelected. It is too hard to change the direction of the company of the country. But you didnt tell me what you would tell him to stop doing to get out of his own way. Everybody says tweeting. If he tweeted 10 less, it would help. He loves to fight. I would tell him stop listening to the smart people. He is president because he trusted his own instincts. Everyone on the stage thought they were insane. He should tweet less, he should do this, get out of his own way. No. Corey lewandowski, to his credit, made smart decisions in their campaign. Let trump be trump. All of these smart political people he surrounds himself with were working with other candidates in the primary. Was working with you guys. Stop listening to them and trust his gut. Is really hard the beat and incumbent. It doesnt happen very often. Stop not talking about the economy. Triple, quadruple down on an economy where about half the people think it is good. If he rides that until this time next year, his chances of continuing being president stop not talking about the economy. Trailive been out on the promoting my book, there is a question of republican loyalty to the president , and how is it as he once that himself, i could shoot somebody in the middle of 5th avenue and they would still vote for me. That has largely been borne out. People ask, what do you attribute to this incredible loyalty, this unwavering loyalty that republicans have to donald trump . What i want to know from you three is if we had a president ted cruz right now or president marco rubio right now or president jeb bush right now, do you still think the Republican Base would be as fiercely devoted to them as they have been to trump . If not, why . It is a polarized country, number one. Number two is the russia thing, the cavanaugh thing. It has pushed people further into their corners and heightened partisanship. Look, i think anyone of those fine gentlemen would be doing well with republicans. The reason he is doing extraordinary is in part due to that. The Politics Today has created the situation we have in front of us, in my view. I could not agree more. Hyper not just partisan, but everybody is tribal. Everybody is part of their tribe and everybody else is wrong. But donald trump does a better job than any other public facing person on the planet of throwing gasoline on that and inciting tribalism even more. Asks a democrat strategist about loyalty to Hillary Clinton. They thought we have a republican flawed in peoples , you have to subscribe some loyalty oath. And obama had been democrats viewed democrats. Nobody asked if Hillary Clinton should resign over emails. We are asked every minute of every day because of a tweet he sent. But the reality is, none of our bosses my boss would not have appointed brett kavanaugh. They would not have stuck with brett kavanaugh. They wouldve cut bait on him. [crosstalk] the reality is trump is the guy who will fight all the way. We are sick and tired of the pc police saying everything we not only because the democrats and media cry fire drill every ingle time he does everything the media is the single greatest if there is any republican thought, man, i dont like trump anymore, rachel will bring home. If i held Barack Obamas illary clintons 2008 position on marriage and espoused it on this stage, i dont think you if ld be allowed to marry uruguay, its not like im bigot, i would be a hate a hate monger, and its that ttack as a conservative, there has been such a shift, we feel o judged as conservatives that donald trump is like the mill finger back to the media. Youre not just wrong, youre evil. Im getting the wrap it up sign. Want a percentage, a percentage from each of you, percentage chance that donald reelection next november, percentage chance . Running against . It doesnt matter. I think hes a 65 , he wins. I would say 60 winning, but, this onald trump in environment, i mean, hell, who knows, he could be impeached and then. W like there is a whole hell lot questions. Its a guess. He could be impeached which basically being indicted, but a trial ld have to be and there wont be because we control the senate. Chance he gets reelected. He gets reelected . He gets reelected. Folks, were out of time. We want to thank the great of texas for state us. Ing [applause] i need to thank pfizer for their wonderful sponsorship. Please stick around. Sit down roup will with jordan, meadows and chip roy. My be signing copies of book at noon. This guy has a copy. Thank you, guys. Is guy has a co. Thank you, guys. [chatter] a conversation with some of the members of the House Freedom caucus taking part in the iscussion where North Carolina congressman mark meadows, representative jim jordan of texas congressman chip roy. This took place at the texas in une festival