Facing uncertainty. Wererder that we accustomed to is praying fraying. Back. Opolitics is autocracy has been on the rise. Liberals have been on the defensive in many ways. Stranger toa is no those terms. Marksear and last year the 40th anniversary of the ofinning of the third wave democratization. That,protagonists of moving from dictatorship to democracy. Last couple of years, we have had many elections in the region and i think two things stand out. Optimism. Eturn of in which aeadership leader purports to be our national savior, who has a unique relationship with the people. Contemptuous of checks and balances and organizing. We have seen leaders very distinct in brazil and mexico. In general, in the region, there has been a weakening of liberal, democratic center. Election results ofrespond to a sense disillusion in latin america. The elections took place against the background. On the one hand, it is giving you two numbers. From 2005 to 2013, latin america, taken as a whole grew economically. To 2019, it will have grown. It means ata terms, small shrinkage. Latin america represents 8 of the worlds population. Crime is another big concern. Then we have corruption. Prominent. Another factor will be the subject of the next panel, the influence of social media, the corrosive influence of anial media in undermining agreed National Narrative based on facts. Those factors explain what is a votersg divorce between and their concerns on the one hand and political systems and political leaders on the other. Said, if you look at the , and latin america , venezuela and nicaragua, we will not discuss it much. Democracy has held up. Onhink what we should focus is the quality of those democracies and their ability to generate Effective Governance and the changes that americans want. To discuss this, we have a president panel, the and before that Vice President et cetera. Host. Air of our they distinguished. I think it is accurate to call it an institution. Worked in the mexican media. She teaches. The mexico media lab. It is it has been going for a dozen years or so. Andela was a star reporter writer. Iter editorinchief of a magazine in brazil. And another institution the best sense of the word, having run of Latin America Program idea, which is not actually an. Dea it is the International Institute for democracy and electoral assistance. Which has done a lot of work in latin america on electoral assistance, on helping to make sure that elections are properly thein latin america, and on whole, they still tend to be, and that is something we should value. The brains behind the province of cordoba in argentina he is also the brains behind the province of cordoba in argentina. We have a great panel. We have two microphones where in due course, you can ask headsets. And we have to her stickers will speak in spanish, two in english. Speakers will talk in spanish. Ask daniel to start us off by giving us a very concise summary of what we should take away from these elections. [speaking spanish] translator [inaudible] me to beleasure for here in front of such a highquality audience and also great panelists. As michael already said, i dont think there is a better moment for us to put our finger on the pulse of what has taken place in latin america. This is a region in which we can say that pretty much everything is happening. In addition to the 40th year beginning ofnd the a democratic way of milestones that were very important, we are at the end of what was called a decade of latin america. You may recall the idb president said in june of 2010, welcome to the american decade. We closed the decade at 1. 6 growth. That is the imf forecast. Were talking about a decade characterized by among other things anemic growth and at the same time, we are at the end of what i call the super electoral cycle, super cycle of elections, which i define as 50 president ial elections that have been or will be held years from 2017 to 2019. Of these 15 elections, 12 have already been held. Hree will be held in october the broad front after three consecutive periods, 15 years in power, and seeking a fourth consecutive mandate. The super cycle left three countries out peru, the dr,. Icaragua elections were held before 2017. The region has been part of this super cycle of elections. Something else i would say about this, this takes place in a very adverse context fraught with challenges in addition to anemic growth as we point out social inest and also malaise politics which was made worse by things that michael pointed out corruption, crime, organized fatigue ofthere is democracy. Support of democracy has been sinceng, the lowest point 2001 when it started to be d. Asure satisfaction went from 44 to 24 that is, satisfaction with democracy. Whichoxic environment in it has taken place, and a little footnote here, every time we speak of latin america, we have to do so in five minutes. We make the mistake of not underscoring the diversity, heterogeneity in the region. Not all countries are the same. For other aspects of it like to refer to, the super electoral cycle characterized with what i have called the vote of anger. There is a clear vote of anger rejecting official ruling parties of elections that have been held. Ecuador and costa rica and in paraguay, there was continuity, by electionsforced fraught with fraud and electoral irregularities. So we have a clear trend toward. Hange of power were talking about people who have spoken out against traditional parties, populist in nature, symbol of fighting solutions to very complex on showingocusing themselves off as messiahs who will do away with problems in short order. We do not have sufficiently strong institutions to really now. In these excesses most are minority governments, a president that does not have majority support of his party in the congress. Mexico being the exception. He has majority in both houses, and it was a landslide victory which he won, but there are others that do not have such support in congress, so we are seeing greater fragmentation of the Political Parties. And we seee another problem here. There are challenges in governance owing to a lack of support in the congress and difficulties for creating congress to get the support for the necessary reforms and other things the executive would want to push through. And reshaping of the political map. Latin america, especially south from centralgoing left from central left government to centerright governments, and we started to say this is a cyclical change now. I think it is too soon to say that because in mexico and costa ,ica and then panama ultimately, we will have to see what is going to happen. What is going to happen in uruguay . We have to be cautious here. Bells to just ring the say were seeing a shift toward the centerright, but we are going to have a region with a greater degree of political heterogeneity. The jury is out on this. We will have to wait for the street elections that i think are important to get a more accurate understanding of what is happening. Thank you very much. Lets come back to argentina because i think there will be a lot of interest in that. If a likely defeat is a special case for new trend. The United Nations commissioner of human rights says there has been a shrinking of civil and democratic space in brazil in the eight months of the government of olson aro bol sonaro. Some say they thought there had already been a reverse of democracy in brazil. Is that right . Tell us how you see it and how worrying is the outlook for democracy in brazil. Good morning. Thank you for having me here. Sayink it is early to democracy in brazil is under threat. I think there is something very , androus happening there its all about the way populations are feeling these changes. For example, it was not paulson onaro who said burn the amazon, but he fired the scientists who just came up with the figure about the burning. Are is a sign that you allowed or entitled to do whatever you want. Bolsonaro said his policy for security is shoot people, that if you are a , thenal, you will be shot security guard, the guy who was a guy whol, and basically needs to take care of people in a shopping mall, but now he is entitled to do whatever he wants. It happened to me recently in rio where im based. Lunch with someone from the new yorker. He was there to write a book. We heard a noise, some guy was running a black eye, and a policeman was running a black guy and a policeman was running. We realized what was happening. We heard someone say hes not a criminal, who works in a supermarket nearby. What hethe policeman was doing, and he said, go wash your dishes. This to me is a sign uof bolsonaros era. We know the region. We know how this class thing is. Wasuritan times, it impossible to imagine a policeman talking to someone like this. When you empower the mall security guard, you open a pandoras box. Ishink brazils parliament trying to steal this bastion of power, and they are reshaping the rules of the game. For example, bolsonaro, one of his main ideas was to approve this law that makes it easier for ordinary citizens to buy guns. The parliaments response was and fast and decidedly no, you cannot do that. The brazilian institutions are working, but there is still a hope that the economics are , but theres no particular sign that it will happen. Had a other hand, people , he wouldse agenda destroy everything the past governments did. The left didout if that, we are going to do the opposite. We could not understand or lsonaro which country bo has in mind. Given his strategy of destroying, it is not something you know. It does not mean you have an idea of the future. We are in very troubled times. My field, we are suffering with economic pressures from the government because unfortunately, brazilian media is still very dependent from public money, advertising, and every thing. For example, the magazine i worked for, we are very critical to pull in aro very critical to bolsonaro, and since february, we did not get any advertising, but we are the largest media group in the country, so were doing ok. Is functioning as a check on the president. On the face of things, the Supreme Court justice ruled that the state financial investigation party collapsing should not investigate suspicious payments involving one of bolsonaros sons. Is that a sign of a general weakening of the independence of the Supreme Court or not . The Supreme Court decided to undermine an investigation of one of the guys, the main guys involved in [indiscernible] with something more linked a specific judge in the court. The idea, the feeling we need to believe in the institution is the the other option military, who are backing bolsonaro from the beginning. For us its very hard to understand their thoughts and intentions. His Vice President did Brilliant Media training. Got attention and very good he wasn brazil, but expelled or was not expelled, spanish] [speaking he praised one of the biggest in brazil. With his thoughts about. Onservatives thank you very much. Its a lot to come back to. On the face of things, he is quite moderate. He has said he will maintain discipline, for example. Many people in mexico are worried about the way he is changing the state and turning of state into an instrument his own power. Are we right to worry about that . Afters your Balance Sheet nine months . First, thank you for having just a position on Fact Checking because longer wor decided to sell its investment in mexico and i left when that happened. Journalistecovering in that sense. To be on theble sideline of the coverage of the presidency. Worrisome foris the fact that we are looking reallylitician that wants to do a solo act. Being anown for [indiscernible] prone country. Organization, not a political party, an Organization Called morena. I am speaking in english because that is the way we would divide the panel. Is ena [speaking spanish] mexico, i have jewish friends, myself, everybody is very much guarded by the morena. We are all morena in that sense. Also out ofs morena the colors in mexico which has been at the forefront of lately. Race is and color, brought back to the forefront of the manussion because who is now the president is clearly very tied to deeprooted social logical sociological debate in mexico. That went untold. Now we are facing those on a daily basis. Democratics of the institutions that were built, yesterday we had a conversation about 1994. And going back to what you were signaling, the 40 years of democratic wave, 30 years of economic reform, 40 years of democratic reform. Now i get it. We are in the middle of a midlife crisis. And that midlife crisis is being deeply felt in mexico. The president is indeed very popular. Investors within the entrepreneurial inss, but he is very popular the rest of the country. He has three problems that one has to look at. ,he first one is his security the criminal element has grown in this nine months very clearly. Kidnaps up, more than 15 , murderedp, woman being femenicidios, is a worrisome phenomenon, and it is part of the problems that are growing. The economy is not growing. We are at zero and me zero means zero. Michael the president says he has other rossana time and again that he has other information but since zero iss, 0 mayas, zero. [laughter] rossana we have become the number one trading partner of the u. S. That is because of china and. Hatever a geopolitical scheme but we are number one. Many of thens investments, multinational investments done in mexico are solid and growing, because they have to substitute some of the things that were bought in china. The third element that i want to put in front of the audience and have a larger conversation here or outside of the scenario is polarization. Polarization, i think it is a trait that is in all of our societies, but from the mexican view, mexican nice is the mexican nice. It is worrisome because we have become a polarized society. Time and again the fact that from the president pulpit, there is a lot of namecalling towards the media. I am no longer part of established institution, a media institution. The fact you were referring to, using the president ial or the government budget on a very manner to either make somebody that is in his definition an enemy of the people, have you heard that . An enemy of the people suffer or somebody that is on the side of his [speaking spanish] usualhas become the standard practice. Also polarization in terms of what i was referring to, race and color of the skin. Spaniards to the send us a note saying that they are sorry that they conquered mexico. And he refers to people accordingly to the color of their skin, our skin. And so some people are good and are part of the people and some others are not. Depends on the color of the skin. And the conservative factors that he also ties to being part of [speaking spanish] that can be either economic, were being part of previous governments. Servants have suffer as they did in the state because they had to represent somebody saying thattantly everything that happened before him he came to power was part of corrupt scheme. That most of the people that were related to the institutions ,hat were built from the 1990s the two decades of the 21st century, have to be scrapped with the competitiveness institutions, the access to information institutions, the the [speakinglike spanish] traitconstruction is a that can also be linked to this moment. We will talk about what the construction means goods there are interesting things that can be constructed with this majority. Michael wonderfully clear. Theou have spoken about issues of governance in latin america as a whole. What do you think, how worrying the situation is . In termsul it might be of the ability of latin america to develop better governance and the rule of law and so forth . I have to denounce our moderator. Me louda andd call not former president because that is the worst presentation letter that you can have nowadays in latin america inc. Vice president. It is a great pleasant pleasure to be in the company of these wonderful, excellent colleagues. Here in a very windy situation, not only meteorological he speaking but also meteorologically speaking globally. Looking at this panorama picture that daniela shows as clearly and we had to that analysis of the two largest democracies in latin america, being brazil and mexico and as a consequence very much tend to expand which is established in the region. Precisely this highly Turbulent Times confirm that situation. The hurricane tends to express itself with greater strength and force where it is unleashing its self in the cases of this will a and nicaragua venezuela and nicaragua. There is no doubt those gusty winds are battering the entire region equally. Democracies and those of us that post of greater stability like my small costa rica may not be suffering in one way or the other as a result of this situation where it is we can go to the democratic variables. I would like to add something more in terms of the perception us,aniela what she has told to go into some institution of and somens and ideas of the notions regarding the political culture. As regards to what daniela told us, she referred to a group, a series of toxic variables. I would add one more which in one way or the other comes to explain in many instances the deterioration that the president ial figure is undergoing despite the fact many of these leaders have been elected only a few months back. That theit is true people have had ever more negative feeling and understanding about democracy is self and the functioning of the institutions, they will pay the price. The Political Parties themselves. Within this electoral cycle as she told us, it was a vote of punishment. It was loud speaking. Many patients people did want to change. They didnt know exactly what for but they acknowledge they want change. The expectations and government in accordance to the Latino Barometer grew up tremendously in those countries. They felt the future of the country would become better. Now on a downward trend. They have made an adjustment which would be 0. 6 . These were the highest expectations. Some of the highest we may recently the region very weer be with that ak economic growth. Quite drastic, but that is one country perhaps where the president and the exception in this case in their mandates clearly debilitated and ofrefore we see that times turbulence are before us. Let us move back to the institution of the topic. We tend to center and are concerned with a type of leadership which is indeed important and no doubt that populism is not a circumstantial situation. In costa rica it is a structural element which is substantial to policy. Hand with hand and another of the evils playin