The future, you will not pick out a book about winston churchill. You will talk to winston churchill. Sunday night at 8 00 eastern on cspans q a. 441 days to go until election 2020. We are joined by David Wasserman. Of Cook Political Report. Lets start with what the Playing Field looks like right now. How many seats the republicans need to take back to regain control of the house and how many seats you think are in play this cycle. Heres the basic math theres 235 democrats in the house, 197 republicans, one independent who left the Republican Party and theres two republican vacancies, one in north carolina. We expect one of them will stay in republican hands. The other will be very competitive, the ninth district. Depending on the results of that special, republicans could need to pick up 19 or 20 seats to retake the majority in 2020. Host when it comes to the house map, we saw the house flip in 2018. What is the likelihood or how often hasnt happened in history that the house has flipped in one election and then flipped back the following election . Guest in 1952 and 1954. The House Majority has not flipped twice since then. It has not flipped in a president ial cycle since 1952. There are some historical precedents working in democrat favor. The democrats have picked up house seats in seven of the last eight president ial cycles. The ship has been in the Single Digits. Republicans need 19 or 22 shift back. In the republicans favor is the geography of the house. We are still working with a set of lines, boundaries that republicans largely drew in 2011. We are still looking at a map where there are 31 democrats representing seats that. Resident trump carried in 2017 there are enough winnable seats out there for republicans to plausibly take back the majority. I do see democrats as the modest favorites for now. Host one of the nice things about Cook Political Report is the map of competitive races. Those races rated by what you think they are right now, whether they are a tossup or whether they lean one way or the other. Especially in a president ial election year, how many of these are simply dependent on president ial coattails, as goes the president ial race so does the most competitive races . Guest what does the president ial race look like, what do President Trumps coattails do for republicans . It could be a drag on the ticket, its possible that a democratic nominee could be a drag for democrats. We dont know a lot about the electability of the field quite yet. Theres also the unknown of republican retirement and how Many Republicans will head for the exit. We are at 11 republican open seats right now, nine retirements, two running for other offices. The more republicans that retire keep in mind, this is something that tends to happen after a party loses its majority, you see a bit of an exit this exodus. Host we are talking with David Wasserman from Cook Political Report, the house editor. If you have questions about your house members 2020 race, you can call in. Republicans, 2027488001. Democrats, 2027488000. Independents, 2027488002. David wasserman will be with us until the end of our program today at 10 00 a. M. Happy to answer your questions about any house races this cycle. You mentioned an exodus. You also mentioned a term, a texodus. Guest weve had a lot of turnover in texas recently. Weve seen a number of republicans and democrats retire. We saw democrats defeat two republican incumbents in 2018. Right now, we are seeing quite a phenomenon in terms of republicans in texas leaving. Are mike conaway, who used to chair the ag committee these threelem, retirees from districts that are majority minority. They have become more diverse over the past 10 years. Pete olson in the 22nd district outside houston, will heard outside san antonio, that district goes to el paso, and that when he Fourth District 24th district, the dallasfort worth suburbs. Herd is the only africanamerican republican remaining in the house will hurd is the only africanamerican republican remaining in the house. Jean ortiz jones was gearing up to run again. Shes now the favorite to take control of that seat. Any one retirement hurt the party more than another one . Hurds in texas. That is the one that hurts the most because hes one of those three republicans in the house from clinton districts. Rob woodall in the atlanta those safe republican seats are no longer safe republican because of demographic changes and what trump has done to alienate a number of suburban republicans in the past several years. Trump has done some positive things for republicans in rural areas of the country. In these southern melting pot suburbs, thats where the democrats have an opportunity to gain some ground. Host is texas a purple state at this point . Is it still a red state . Guest it is a red state that is trending purple it is really republican policies that have made texas a more redable purple shade of the last 12 years. If you think of rick perry and george w. Bush and greg abbott, they lowered the Corporate Tax rate to where you have all these corporate relocations from blue states like california and illinois, millions of professionals going from coastal states, blue states, to suburbs of san antonio and austin and now, those suburbs are behaving a whole lot differently than they used to. Williamson county, Bette Orourke won. Democrats have been won havent won these places in years. In 2018, even though democrats only picked up two seats out of the 26 that republicans held, there were six more republicans in the delegation who won by five points or less. They of them are retiring, will have competitive races. Its no wonder why the Democratic CongressionalCampaign Committee has made texas ground zero. Host we will focus on some of those other races. Carol out of new york. A democrat. You are up first. Good morning. Caller i would like to ask your guest about cp 22 in new york, anthony brindisi, who is a freshman and beat a team party member tea party member. I would like any insights you may have about the upcoming congressional race. Thank you. Guest that is a fascinating district. There was no district in the country that democrats picked up that gave trump more than 55 of the vote in 2016, but this one came close. Trump won this district by 15 points, but a democrat did manage to win this seat. One of the reasons he was successful, Claudia Tenney was really unpopular as an incumbent. She made controversial comments, she had gone out of her way to alienate some republicans in the district. There had long been a divide between more moderate republicans behind Richard Hanna and more conservative republicans who fell into the tenney camp. There is likely to be a competitive race in the republican camp. This is one of the most vulnerable seats for democrats in the country. Do republicans nominate tenney or do they nominate someone who is a more conventional republican like Steve Cornwell . If republicans can get a mainstream candidate as their nominee, i think their odds of winning this seat back are pretty good. Host you ranked the 22nd district as a tossup. There are some incumbents you put in that category of being a tossup race. Are they mostly freshman members . Guest they are mostly freshmen. The democrats who are most vulnerable are in seats where the democrat margin in 2016 was smaller than trumps margin. In the same category as brenda si, kendra horn in oklahoma city, ben mcadams in salt lake city, utah. One thing that was noticed in 2018, democrats broke through in a lot of southern suburbs. They picked up seats in places where democrats never would have expected 10 years ago. Charleston, south carolina, oklahoma city, dallas suburbs and suburbs in houston. We will see if democrats can hold those seats or if they will flip. Host we can talk about any of the congressional races coming up and pick David Wassermans brain about it. Republicans, 2027488001. Democrats, 2027488000. Independents, 2027488002. Massachusetts, matt is a democrat. Good morning. Caller thank you for taking my call. David, i am a fan of the ratings. I follow you on twitter. I sometimes bug you about particular ratings but i keep it polite. I want to ask you about two particular seats i find very interesting. One is minnesotas first freshmanwhere a republican is running for his first reelection bid after one of only year, two blue to red flips in the house. If jason lewis runs for senate in minnesota, the republican be three men who have a history of controversial remarks, some rightly considered racist,some considered certainly inflammatory. If thats an area where that may nice. Issue in minnesota the democratif makes a second try for a rematch with hedge doran host what is the other race . First californias district where doug lamalfa may be heading for the exits. Hes used to winning by 1823 points. Last year, that was cut to Single Digits by audrey, who is running again and is out fundraising him. Issues are leaning democrats direction. Guest i love the callers this morning. The callera 1, raised the possibility that three republicans with a history of inflammatory comments could be on the ballot. Minnesotas First District by over 10 points. That nearly caused the incumbent democrats reelection that year. He later went on to become governor in 2018 and they republican a republican won that seat. There are only a handful of democrats left from early rural rural really rural districts. Ag is the chair of the house committee. Even though he is a powerful longterm member of congress with high popularity back home, he saw his margin cut to just about five points in 2018. Original member of the Blue Dog Coalition still in the house is like trying to spot a leopard in a thick forest somewhere. There arent too many of them left to see. In ruralemocrats minnesota are an endangered species. Californias first, doug lamalfa, the incumbent, who is a rancher in the northern rural reaches of california, we saw his lead cut to Single Digits in 2018, a high watermark for emma democrats. Even though republicans are just down to Seven Members of 53 in california, this probably isnt one that democrats will get in years. T for years few host who might be more vulnerable on the republican side . Guest of the seven republicans left in california. All but one mccarthy, saw their single saw their lead cut to Single Digits. Republicans a saw republicans became the third california. Republicans will try to get the four seats they lost in Orange County back. Democrats will be going after duncan hunters seat in san diego county. Hes facing a trial, hes under indictment. Democrats will be trying to protect a lot of the gains they made. One of the reasons why democrats theresell in 2018, still a lot of republicans from blue states left. Thats not the case anymore. Host dolores, a republican. Caller good morning. Im a little nervous. Why there is no penalty for what politicians say, especially in this president ial race. They can say whatever they want. I guess an example there doesnt seem to be any for instance im getting a little nervous here host do you think a penalty is not being elected or being voted out of office . Caller some penalty. They can say whatever they want. I watched the debate. Afterwards, they were saying this wasnt true, that was true, that wasnt true. They should tell the truth. If you dont and they cant prove it, there should be some sort of penalty. I dont know if a financial fine it seems really hard for me to know what to believe when they can say what they want and two days later, they print out that they made a mistake and it wasnt true. Host lets take up that topic with David Wasserman. Guest lets be clear if a candidate does something patently false and and add in an ad, the stations take those down. They Say Something untrue a big problem lately has been the closed information loops in the country, the decline of local media that once provided voters the opportunity to size up candidates based on their backgrounds and qualifications on who they were as people. Weve seen a rise in straight ticket voting, a decline in split ticket voting. If i had to give advice to local news outlets, outlets i interact with quite a lot, its probably past time to stop endorsing candidates for office. I think when voters perceive that a media outlet has a force in the game that is why cspan is so trusted it thers the credibility of hard news in that outlet. That explains a bit of the decline in trust weve seen the news media when it comes to holding candidates accountable. Ist your twitter handle redistrict, a source for redistricting analysis. Can you explain the june Supreme Court decision on gerrymandering and what its actual impacts will be on the ground going ahead in 2020 . Guest the Supreme Court decision in june essentially to overturnnot sue maps in federal court on the basis that they are partisan gerrymandered. Fightnded a decades long over whether the court was going to impose a standard by which the judge maps is going too far. Although this is regarded as a setback for reformers, it sets the status quo. We have not seen a map overturned on a partisan basis in federal court. Going into the next round of redistricting, there was already hope that we would see less aggressive gerrymandering. There are a number of developments at the state level that are going to change the game without Supreme Court intervention. For example, a new commission in place in states such as michigan, colorado, utah, ohio. Whether those commissions actually work to stop aggressive gerrymandering in those states is to be determined. Some reformers believe those reforms are more cosmetic than anything else. Its an open question of how they will turn out. Additionallso won governorships in 2018. Inare also likely to see states where republicans do control the process in 2021 a reexamination of their strategies. They are looking at the maps they drew in 2011, a number of states that were intended to be safe seats fell by the wayside in 2018 because of the changing voting patterns in the suburbs. Republicans need to be more careful in terms of the maps they draw, particularly in texas and georgia. Host in texas, judy. Good morning. Go ahead, judy. Caller hello. I want to discuss abortions. It seems to be a big deal in a lot of these races. I have personal knowledge of it. Dont know whos going to take those crackhead babies, alcoholic babies, babies with lots of problems, if these women dont have abortions. Host judy in texas. Abortions in the 2020 House Campaign as an issue. Guest it could come up as a big issue in the president ial campaign. One of the reasons trump was able to break through as a republican candidate where others have not been able to break through in the past was because he emphasized issues where he had commonalities with working class democrats. The social read issues that had plagued republicans for some time, especially gay marriage and abortion. He did not embrace socially positions. E positions. He tried to bring religious and social conservatives into his coalition by nominating mike pence for president for vice president. To the extent that there is a big debate next fall over the future of roe v. Wade, that could split trumps coalition somewhat. It does include a number of workingclass voters, particularly women who are a leadice, but presents coastal politic. Democrats were able to do well by portraying republicans as the party of the wealthy and the party of bible thumpers who wanted to impose their religious values on everyone else. Trump is the opposite of a bible thumper. Can make the case that republicans are once again pushing tax cuts for the wealthy and trying to impose religious they stand tors, gain back some of the ground theyve lost. Host about 30 minutes left with David Wasserman of Cook Political Report. It is cookpolitical. Com. Roger back in michigan. An independent. Good morning. Caller good morning. We have a beautiful morning here in the 60s. Host sounds lovely, roger. Its a lot higher in d. C. Go ahead with your question for David Wasserman. Caller i was raised a democrat. This past election changed my whole mind. I grew up seen as a democrat. Ive completely reversed. For the election judge Republican Party because i couldnt get to be one as a democrat. Michigan, this is gods country. I dont understand why are congresswoman from michigan, that tlaib and that omar from minnesota and a ocasiocortez ofm new york, that group four of them, i dont understand it and i dont understand anybody with brains in their head would have anything to do with those people. They think they are above the president of the united states. As far as im concerned, they are a disgrace to this country. Host that block and their impact outside of their own races. Guest republicans tried to run against nancy pelosi and 2018. Now, they are squarely running against the squad. Their message going into 2020 is that the squad, aoc, rashida tlaib, Ayanna Pressley leading the party off a socialist cliff. That is dangerous for some Democratic Candidates and it provides an opportunity for a lot of the freshman democrats who dont fall into the and donte caucus fall into their political viewpoints to separate themselves from the most liberal parts of the party. Woninias seventh district a very close race in 2018, ran a very impressive campaign. She is running as more of a formatic democrat who voted 4. 6 billion in emergency funding for the border, differentiating herself from the squad, did not call for impeaching the presid