Transcripts For CSPAN China Taiwan Tensions 20180225

Half. Good morning ladies and gentlemen. To those oflcome you who are watching online and to viewers on cspan. I am seth cropsey. A senior fellow here at hudson. Welcome to our conference on chinas recent actions that aim to establish their own order in the Taiwan Strait. As you will hear in greater detail from our panel this morning, china unilaterally changed the status quo of aviation routes in the taiwan week of thee first share. Changes were made despite agreements between taiwan and china that were reached in 2008 in 2015. And again consultationd any change in aviation routes. Is part of an larger, brighter pattern of chinese revocation in the region. Broader pattern of chinese revocation in the region. China had a ship go our. During chinese jets have circled taiwan nearly wants per month. The is consistent with chinese policy that seeks to enjoy the benefits of an International World order for the purpose of replacing out world order with one of their own making. For example, china signed and ratified the u. N. Law treaty during the administration of ronald reagan. The treaty established territorial in contiguous waters up to 24 miles from the states border of the coast and exclusive Economic Zone up to distance from the coast. China and joyce the benefit of as well as china and joys the benefit of security. Sovereign claims enjoyed the construction and arming of islands far beyond the definition within the 200 mile limit of the Economic Zone, which was done which does not come under any qualification whatsoever. Chinas artistic patient in the economic and International Order is not restricted to the holocene. Actions in the world trade organization, for example, is an International Organization that encourages free trade and provides a forum for the resolution of trade disputes. Of 2001. Been a member nevertheless, beijing has controlled the Exchange Rate of the currency and maintains a large portion of the economy and state owned enterprises and preserves the controlling and labor andedit energy and housing, for example. In this case, we are here to the International System as a rich main to be mined in the service, but never at the expense of chinas Chinese Communist party control. The same distinctive chinese characteristics describes beijings violation of multiple agreements that had been reached with taiwan. Aligned tothe stars benefit for mutual agreement with taiwan, agreements are observed. Observed influence in its favor, the passage between east end souths, china decided to act unilaterally. The pattern this morning looks she isdetail the agree example of the Chinese State consistent policy of shaping the International Status quo to achieve its own and. To achieve its own and. End. In this subject, it is important because it is a snapshot of chinas broad policy to abide by the rules as long as they suit you. In the u. S. , a politician wants it to me that he would stick with us as long as he could. He was joking, of course. China is not. In the distinguished panel of experts, impressive qualifications are listed. In order of their presentation, they will explain exactly what they did early in january. Peter is editorinchief from the china brief. He will be followed by the retired senior naval officer and whose exceptional career in the navy is and is now Corporate Vice president at Huntington Ingalls industry. Formalwill conclude the presentation with observation on the strategic consequences of contemporary events and southeast asia. Chair move over to my here. I would like to ask you, during the question time that will , toow the panelist remarks wait until you are recognized. Microphone and please tell us your organization name. Ur especially to whom your question is directed. Thank you. Welcome. Peter, all yours. Peter thank you. A special thank you to the Hudson Institute for inviting me. Im definitely the most junior on this panel so im looking to add what has happened in a broader context. And the reason china has taken these actions and i am hoping my colleagues will be able to fill in the holes i am leaving. This. D out the basics of in january, they try to make this unilateral action to declare this route but some of things that need to be taken into consideration are the fact this is one of the biggest routes in east asia. You have lots of traffic coming in and out of taiwan. Also, flights going and and out to from the proper island to the outlying islands and backandforth to southeast asia. So this represents a very dangerous move just from a Public Safety perspective. But to understand the reasons why beijing has made these moves. You need to look at the last time there was a major negotiation on these routes. There were initially discussions both leading organizations and another Important Office is going to be an charge of taiwans work. It will have a new leadership. So there is essentially turnover and some key Leaders Within the ccp that are responsible for taking policy for taiwan. Perhaps that weve entered a new year, it should not surprise us that much that we see a more stern, former hand being taken with more aggressive action to roll back taiwanese relations the the vatican and continuation of the sort of rolling back. Another action is to restrict and essentially take away taiwanese agency, which is essentially what this represents. Another consideration is that 2020 is not that far away. And the election and 2016 was a major setback for the prc in terms of its longerterm goals for advancing its version of sovereignty. Its version of how it regards taiwan. Looking ahead to 2020, there will be concerted effort by the prc to take actions which economically impact people in taiwan and force them to question their government. Both the larger representation and more directly. Flights are being canceled. What does that mean . That is meant to prompt questions among the citizenry about who is in charge. What will be the longerterm best option for them economically . Set theconsideration is prc has been aggressive in promoting itself as being the future and primary stakeholder which comes to airspace and east asia. Both from an economic perspective, it is a very aggressive in expanding its civilian aviation. Theres a lot of attraction from both Aviation Manufacturing companies to be invested in the future growth in Civil Aviation the prc. This gives them additional leverage when it comes to agency back taiwanese and commercial flights and things like this. Another consideration is the current secretary general is a prc citizen. So from Different Levels, prc has a lot of Different Levels it pull toevers it can place pressure on taiwan and rollback its agency. Sort of reduce the way in which it can represent itself or push back against things like the unilateral declaration of these air core doors. I am going to turn it over to my colleagues who can provide additional commentary on the strategic situation. Again, i want to emphasize it is important to consider that domestic prc political situation when understanding why these actions have been taken. Thank you, either. Peter. Admiral fox, i would like to make a note of it since you may or may not of gotten your notes there. He was Deputy Commander of the Central Command under general mattis, and also Navy Commander of the fleet. Distinguished career, not only in what he assignment the positions he has held. To give you a little bit of context to begin with about the posture that the u. S. Navy has maintained. In particular, in this region, the u. S. Seventh fleet has been in and during presence in the western pacific since the end of world war ii. Deployed oract have permanently stationed, if you will, unique forces that are actually in japan and in the region. So there is a different construct in the navy and from the east coast to the middle east. It is a construct. Also, west coast. Going through the pacific, sometimes operating under the seventh fleet, sometimes going to the middle east. The seventh fleet is unique in that it they have for deployed and the majority is permanently stationed. So despite the discussion about rebalancing, we never left. We have been up meaningful presence and force along. If you want to talk later about any questions, i will be happy to address them. The other piece i think is important to remember as i going to give you a little bit of Historic Context of some of the crises that have been involved taiwan. Of prc and in particular, Taiwan Straits. One of major significance was in the mid1950s. This was when taiwan, for most of us in the shanghai scheck regime was still very closely aligned with the eisenhower administration. In fact, eisenhower, there is a great deal of tension that came up in the mid50s. The seventh fleet was there, deployed. 1950s, second Taiwan Strait crisis eckerd and there was conflict. Have alwaysr i studied this, but the first actual use of a certain type of missile in 1958 in kind of the second taiwan crisis, if you will. , this area ise vital and key for Economic Growth for the entire region and i would argue, the entire world. During the vietnam era, when we, the United States, were involved in vietnam, we actually had stations. We had yankee station in the northern part off of North Vietnam and we had dixie station. So we had continuous and very heavy Operational Presence in the 1960s and 1970s as the vietnam conflict evolved. The third taiwan crisis occurred in 1996, and which prc was actually launching missiles in the early part of 1996 priority to an election. Were were missiles that raising tensions. President clinton the uss independence was the forwarddeployed aircraft at the time what president clinton and his administration did was they brought uss nimitz as a backication of deployment from the middle east and had to carrier battle groups, as they were called then. The first time the prc military looked and said, we do not have the capability. They would not really able to respond to the military buildup that the Clinton Administration had by then. There were two things happening in the 1990s. Prc lookedthink the at the way Desert Storm Campaign was performed. When they were incapable of doing much about the fact that there were two andiers that were generated operating right up there coast. I think that began the evolution and the journey and the prc military about, we got to be able to do something about that. So the incredible growth of the prc military capability, and particular with their navy. Building a lot of ships. Creating a capable ability a capability of their influence in the region with their power capability as well. Situation, of the , where itnal role set is advantageous to them they will comply with and and where it is not, they will not. There is a concept known as freedom of navigation and freedom of devastation is basically the principle that we do not accept a given nations claims. U. S. ,l conduct, we the since the early 1980s have conducted freedom of navigation maneuvers and places where we do claims. Pt particular the Obama Administration did this, the Trump Administration had suspended them for a portion and a note mid part of 2017 resumed them. I think we had won the share, for last year. Basically, it is a con testing of excessive claims. On the other hand, there is an passage. Innocent passage is a concept that says you can pass through the territorial waters of another state and you accept or agree or you comply with the coastal countries territorial claims. Behindre the elements what you hear and innocent passage. If youve any questions i will be happy to address them. Thank you. Good morning. Weve heard about the recent flights where the taiwanese have taken over where the chinese have taken over the taiwanese straight. Aggressiveso the expansions, the reclamations, and that some of these disputed islands in the east and sea. China and, the flights around taiwan. They all create a picture, a key element of witches that china is squeezing taiwan. Which is a violation of the china policyone that both the United States and china have pledged to uphold. We generally hear about the one china policy from chinese but it is not just the United States that has obligations under that policy. China does also. Those course of measures violate chinas obligation. This coercive measures violate chinas obligations. I think it is important to remind people of basics. I will make a broader point here. I will make a broader point here that when we have alliances and partnerships in the world people who are experts in the field often take them for granted because the basic formulas are so wellknown to the people in the field but what is remarkable when you get to be a certain age is you look back and see that the things that are absolutely rudimentary in the view of some older people are brandnew for the younger people and if we dont regularly and often reaffirm some of these basic points about why we have these relationships and why we have alliances vendor alliances can become unreliable and it is incumbent on people who value these relationships, these longstanding relationships to remind over and over again the publics in both of the country that there really are solid grounds for the important relationships that have developed over decades. In the case of taiwan its important, i think, for americans to understand that taiwan is an open society and a democracy and a country of 23 Million People in it is not a dot on the map but a country that, i dont know exactly where you stand, but if it was a european country given the population it would be, i think, in the middle of the pack. It wouldnt be a smaller country in europe. It is an astonishing statistic and america is more or less tense trading partner in the world and maybe at nine or 11 and i dont know precisely at the moment but its around number ten when you think about 200 countries in the world and taiwan is our tenth trading partner and thats quite something. We have longstanding ties with taiwan and we are committed to taiwans defense and strategically because of this long commitment which add animal box highlighted the low back into into the eisenhower and truman years and because of that longstanding relationship our support for taiwans right is seen around the world as a sign as a measure of american credibility as a partner and ally. It is no small thing that the United States maintain and properly respect the relationship we have and are duties toward taiwan in upholding its defense. It is also important to point out that in addition to this other kind of squeezing that i referred to before taiwan is under constant cyber attack from china and so are we in this is an important area because of the advanced because of the advance economy is the port area where the nitrates and taiwan operate for mutual benefit. As important it is that the United States do what it should do to uphold this relationship and maintain our defense, our defenses in the region it is important that taiwan does what it is supposed to do and it seems to, i think, many of the experts who are focusing on the way the taiwanese are allocating their resources and dealing with defense but the taiwanese government is not doing everything it should be doing in the defense field. Its not spending what it should be spending and i think we, i made a pitch about the importance of the United States upholding the relationship but the taiwan government needs to hold the government relationship by picking sure its carrying an appropriate amount of weight in the defense relationship. And putting itself in a position where i can contribute to its own defense in our common defense interest. Now, chinas unilateral actions to change the legal status is the islands in the waters in the east in the South China Seas is a threat not only to the countrys immediate [inaudible] and i think the point about these chinese flights over the middle of the Taiwan Strait and the aggressive position the chinese have taken on the islands in the area and these are not just the taiwan issue but these go much beyond that and they are a threat, not only to taiwan and not a threat only to the countries immediately involved other than taiwan like japan, the philippines and they are a threat to the idea of an orderly state system that operates according to agreed rules. China has been acting as the established rules do not apply to it. Im aware that the United States often gets accused of thinking that rules do not apply to it. I hear that when i speak at universities and anytime one talks about other countries not obeying the rules and someone will inevitably say the United States thanks its exceptional and they think american exceptionalism means that the United States doesnt subject itself to International Rules that it wants to apply to others. I dont think that is basically correct. I think the us officials uphold the basic rules of the state system. The us officials are accustomed to living in a society with the rule of law and so they have no problem adhering to International Rules also and i think we generally do so. Top chinese officials, however, preside over and on free society. They operate above the law. The law for them is a tool of power not a constraint on the people in power and its not a constraint on the communist party and not a constraint on its most senior political officials and not constrained by their own domestic show disregard for their weaker species of obligation known as International Law and ive heard chinese scholars discuss the multiple sources of disdain for International Rules on the part of chinese leaders in one source, as i mentioned, is communist ideology that the party above the law there are also sources rooted in the powerful elements of chinese strategic culture and these elements encourage chauvinistic views that china should dominate rather than operate as a nation among nations that deserve equal respect for their sovereignty. Where are we with the Trump Administration . Well, the trumpet imagination is kept up a minimum level of engagement with taiwan we heard admiral fox make reference to suspension and then initiation of some freedom of navigation operations and the trump policy is i would it looks like it is just emerging now so it is early even though the demonstration has been around for a year there has been long delays in getting key positions built and so i think we are rather early in the administration when it comes to seeing where their policies are going to go. The key element of it, of course, is the us Defense Budget and an important point to make about this is people often talk about our commitment to a given area of the world with reference to the specific military resources that we have in that area of the world. That is i dont think a good way to look at it. The United States has one armed horse for the world. In so whether we happen to have a certain number of people deployed here or there is interesting but it is not necessarily the main point. The main point is what are the total capabilities that we have that we could bring to bear if we needed to because obviously our assets can be moved around. And so the big picture look at the us Defense Budget is crucial to understand whether we are serious about maintaining our commitments anywhere in the world in east asia or elsewhere. The us Defense Budget is going up, not going up as much as many people believe it needs do, if United States will fill all of its various obligations to its own interest into its alliances and partnerships. As i heard at home this morning when i picked this tie on, this time may have more ships on it in the u. S. Navy and that is a problem. [laughter] cyber subversion, economic coercion, territorial bowling, subversive influence are all challenges that china is posing to the United States in two taiwan into the whole region. In all of those areas taiwan has been a testing ground and a frontline and that should help us understand why this connection that we have with taiwan is important but as i said we should keep in mind that these challenges go far beyond taiwan and affect the whole question of whether we can have an orderly state system. Thank you, doug. Well, we have heard three excellent presentations and lets turn the mic over to the floor and if there are questions we will recognize. Abe, senior fellow in the South China Sea the chinese have made this claim of this Territorial Sea that has no has no basis in its inconsistent with the laws of the sea and their nine lines suggest that the sea itself is their territory as opposed to having rights in the sea because they control the nearby land is that essentially what theyre doing now in the Taiwan Straits and theyre trying to save the Taiwan Strait is a territorial water just like they said the choice South China Sea is or is it more subtle than that or have they not been clear or have they been poking around . They claim all of taiwan so even if well, that would be another question supposedly had taiwan we would regard that as International Water and and we would still have the freedom of navigation even to the Taiwan Strait if we were part of china, couldnt we . Its a big enough area but i think and im just wondering if this kind of similar to the South China Sea issue where they are trying to make a claim in a very good one way that they not only have rights over the sea that is near their land but they somehow have territory on the high seas that is just its as if he said the gulf of mexico is like ontario or like michigan, i show less suppose. We just said the gulf of mexico is our territory that would be similar to what they are doing in the South China Sea. Perhaps its more analogous to the east tennessee in terms of, like you said, claiming the sovereign ability to determine who gets to go there and while they havent enforced it they said. I think perhaps when we talked with the soft tennessee maybe we should talk credit from our perspective. They view it as being sensitive even if the actions the United States has taken is doing east apps or can close to some of their Creative Things theyre claiming that it is that they have additional rights. You. Its an interesting point that one of my colleagues made about the law of the sea treaty that the chinese should as party to the law of the sea treaty workout to question the status of these waters through the treaty. I have personally i am skeptical about important elements in the treaty. The treaty is has some very sensible and appealing aspects and it has, in my view, some deeply troubling aspects and the United States is not a party and they there are good reasons for that and its a matter of debate among, intense debate, even among sensible people in the United States but the fact is the chinese are a member, a party to the treaty and they are not doing what parties to the treaty are supposed to do concisely the questions abe, that you have raised. Whether waters are inland waters for all practical purposes or International Waters is an enormously significant question. It is precisely what the law of the sea treaty is supposed to deal with and if there are serious questions raised there are supposed to be resolved through the mechanism of the treaty. I would simply point out to the people who advocate in favor of the treaty and think it is a valuable text, or valuable as a that matter than i think it is i was a you want to defend the tree then you should be pressing to see that it works and to see that the chinese having become a party are using the mechanisms of the treaty to resolve these questions of what constitutes International Waters or not and if it doesnt it cheapens the whole treaty. Another point, [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2016] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] another point, a, if you go simply by the treaty itself the continuous zone and the sovereign zone of taiwan and china extend the 4 miles out over a hundred mile area leaves 52 miles in the middle and so i think based on, for example, the chinese action in the fiery cross in the [inaudible] which are hundreds of miles beyond the exclusive Economic Zone that it is, safe to assume that they will claim that little 52mile band is theres. Other questions . Please, wait for the microphone. My question is addressed to admiral fox. Follow up with the previous question on the Taiwan Strait you think us should declare it as a claim or declare it Taiwan Strait as an International Waters and operate operations in the Taiwan Strait and also we heard that this area of the sea is very rough so it is not, i dont like to know your experience in that area, is it chinas capability, each lady is it developed, far enough to present and prevent the us from intervening in the case of an attack or invasion or blockade to buy one . Thank you. Taiwan strait is 100 miles ish so by definition by International Law there is International Water and air space between taiwan and mainland china. There is no declaration on the part of the United States. Its an interesting contradiction because china has signed the law of the sea treaty but doesnt observe it in the United States observes the law of the sea treaty but we have not find it so there is that interesting contradiction there but the us and the u. S. Navy under the law of the sea treaty even though we are not signatories to it. The question about that a 280 this is called preparation for contingencies and warfare and it goes back a long, long time. It is not a new concept to either deny an adversary access to a particular battle space or region and so people there for potential conflict take that into account and what you do is you never leave your job, you always find a way to accomplish your mission when you go after your opponents weaknesses and protect your own. The quote a two a. D. , i always look at these as professional military and retired professional military and i dont do that anymore but i always look at these lines on the water and some people go this is the line of death and if you go inside you can operate. But it is not so and so you figure out how to do it and you obviously are thoughtful and think a lot of different ways to create, maneuver room and Operational Capability that give you the opportunity to accomplish your mission question in the front row. Good morning. Neil with Global Vision three occasions. This is a question for the entire panel. We expand a little more on the term policy towards taiwan . It seems within the last year he has not been pulled in to constructs, many of which harken back to world war ii and is willing to make changes, some very abruptly like moving jerusalem as the capital of israel and so are we going to see changes to our policy here and do you think and related is how set in stone do you believe our pledge to defend taiwan is if something were to happen militarily in the show less region . Thank you. Well, speculating about what the Trump Administration is going to do, id like to leave my colleagues. [laughter] my guess is that as doug pointed out its evolving in the answer isnt there yet. It has taken a while to get into key policy people in place, both the state in the Defense Department and when they are in place i think will have a better ability to answer your question but until then it looks to me as though the administrations primary concern in east asia is north korea. That is where the plants are directed in the for the public statements go and that is not only from the president but from the secretary of state and friends so aside from arms sales which administration got off to a good start on i think it is as the popular and overused phrase goes a work in progress. I guess the one thing i say is that mr. Trump, as a candidate, made a number of pretty strong in harsh statements about americas allies and partners and criticized them generally as free riders and made them hundred people in the United States and around the world question whether he was committed to those Longstanding Alliance in Partnership Arrangements or whether he was going to offend all of them in asia, nato and around the world. That created a lot of vegetation vegetation. Since he has become president the rest of his remarks he has made a number of remarks, not all of which hit the same thing but hes made a number of remarks but the rest of his remarks has been to reaffirm these longstanding relationships and to uphold alliances and partnerships and so i think that is significant. That doesnt contradict the points that we have made that it is early but things could go in any number of directions but in general it is interesting to note that he has not, as president , then as radical on the question of meaning on our allies and partners. He has continued to lean on them and interestingly enough they responded i try to be fairminded about this but they have responded in general with increasing their defense expenditures as he said they should. Thats an interesting reaction and he seems to have shaken things up. And american president s over the decade have complained that this argument that our allies and partners are free riding and its not something that the trump invented. On the contrary, and evergreen complaint of america officials going back decades but the general view of our allies was that it wasnt serious and that there were not going to be consequences for continued to be viewed as free riders. And so, when mr. Trump said it he managed to achieve credibility for himself as someone who really would upset the apple cart if this problem were not mitigated and there has been some litigation with certain allies and partners increasing their spending which, i guess, is to the credit of what he said. On the other hand you have this question of is he undermining confidence in our word and i think he has tended as president to try to increase confidence by downplaying some of the more radical statements he made about our alliances. At the moment it looks like we are basically on the path to reaffirming the importance of these alliances while he is trying to meeting pressure on various allies and partners to increase their contribution to the common defense. I just pulled out, as we were going through this, the summary of the National Defense strategy that was just issued and i think general mattis, senator matus, probably personally robust. I recognize his penmanship here quote china is a strategic competitor using predatory economics to intimidate its neighbors on militarizing features in the South China Sea. China is leveraging in modern predatory economics to course neighboring countries to reorder the end of Pacific Region to their advantage. When you go through this its the National Defense strategy and even going back to the document that the executive branch put out in december there is this and then there is this documents that hold together in a way that we are going through our National Strategic reviews and posturing our Defense Strategy and its of note and encouragement, certainly, at the very end of this thing were talking about alliances and partnerships and strengthening alliances and attracting new partners and ensuring that we maintain favorable regional balances of power in the end of pacific and thats the term of the general mattis is using. The military department to be prepared is always present regardless of the administration. You think through how are we going to do this. At the end of the day, the smart person does not want to go to war and at the same time the way to prevent conflict is to be prepared for it and that is the clearest way to deter horrible consequences is to be prepared in that way. Give me a choice between parsing time and studying and whats figuring out what is going on i will always try to figure out whats going on in [inaudible] high. I think it is worthwhile examining as others have done the appointments that trump is made to various important security positions that are the problem that people like Matt Pottinger who are more asia focused and that is clearly, as i say, i also believe this week there is a few us senators who are visiting taiwan so to me i dont get a whole lot out of the paint but what kind of meetings are happening and those are the things i wouldnt think of as a more important indicator but there is a lot of back and forth and change their mind and the public statements do matter not nearly as much but like mark said the National Security strategy in the National Defense strategy those are two things you can hang your hat on but also the payments. That will give us a lot longer term value in terms of figure out what is going on sir. Japanese newspaper. Thank you. As you know, the chinese official armed vessels are coming into the water to [inaudible] in east tennessee and they come three times a month and cruise around in the japanese water for two hours and that creates concern on the part of the japanese that they might soon land on the island or occupy so could anyone address this chinese move toward the island in the context of chinas overall strategy opposing taiwan if theres any direct linkage . I will start and pass it off to my colleagues. Its a pattern of activity that we have seen and a continuous. If you can ever reach the point where a greatest behavior becomes accepted then somehow it has become accepted and people become numb to it and i think it something that needs to be a source of concern and to be a source of focus. Need to be able to understand those kinds of activities, the actions they are honestly driven by somebody making a decision to do that and how do we now return point we are able to influence from a policy level and start saying stop doing that. Its not an accident and not a coincidence when it happens in a show less text 00 57 30 peter wood peter wood repetitive fashion. One of the things i have watched is the data that the Japanese Ministry defense is put out especially since 2013 as the number of intercepts that is made with chinese aircraft in increasingly also we have seen periods where there is a Chinese Military aircraft in the area and also Chinese Naval vessels in an area and at the same time going through International Waters and working there, like you said, and recently we have a Nuclear Class submarine being forced to service near the waters and i think we should take it for granted that they are diesel submarines which is based in [inaudible] they should not be operating in the stairs. When you theyre going out to see. Secondly and we should have a look at the broader pattern of activity and it would be to taiwan use to publish a numbers about this and the numbers of aircraft that were being intercepted and they made a decision to stop doing that but there is three white papers that presented and had the data and if you look at it it is quite astounding. I took that data and looked at the trend and if it continued on on the upward trajectory that he was on the last published this information we would see something around 2000 flights, i think, to the centerline in taiwan a year and of course that is interpreting it and looking forward but it would behoove taiwan to reconsider issuing that kind of data again. The fact that japan has decided to release this information and it is a baseline. To my knowledge vietnam was the philippines and no other nation puts out information like that but i think we want to see how china is ratcheting up its military flights or like i said militarized like coast guard vessels and to channel [inaudible] in here but the Maritime Militia is something that we know from these open the sensors aboard the ships that there are Fishing Vessels that are going and near other territorial claims and a lot of these are associated with actual official chinese Maritime Militia. People daily, former president of the academy of military science and in beijing that was a talking about the Maritime Militia and other scientific vessels all of these vessels, not just coast guard, Maritime Militia and maybe all of them together are an important part of turning it into a strong maritime nation so we cant just they dont view these things as being separate. They view them as part of a larger hole so it proves us not to just look at you said the more overt but we look at the Fishing Vessels as well. And also to address your question and the question that proceeded although it is not possible to tell what this actually means but i believe the president has already said that the islands are deputies and determining what the consequence of that is we will wait to see but that is a positive state. You have another question, sir . Tired field officer. I wonder if members of the panel would like to address the history of the port of call by the u. S. Navy particularly in light of chinese officials remarks about this being show less text 01 02 04 mark fox a marker down the relationship. I dont at my fingertips have last time there was u. S. Navy port call in taiwan. I am aware of the expressed concern on the part of the chinese administration, if you will, that that is a third rail. Of course, the evolution from the truman eyes of hauser era and the watershed event was obviously from kissinger and nixon went to china in the early 70s and i think that there has been this hope and assumption that by engaging china over the last 35 ish or however many years that we are drying them back into this business of being a responsible member in the International Community and i think its a personal opinion now you see their activities of being very aggressive and changing tomography in building island and thats the thing and its probably time to consider that they are not interested necessarily in of being a productive member of International Community and they had their own worldview and so as i was doing some of the research in preparation for this that we put at 86 with brandnew site wonders in taiwan 1958 and they worked well for the first time. Its been an evolution obviously in the defense support to be able to provide the taiwan military the ability to defend themselves is something that also, i think, is important for us to consider so that there is not an important ability to course and forced in a negative outcome. I would add one small thing to that. Theres an assumption whatever comes to us port of call that is essentially we need to approve the u. S. Navy to go there and it can happen. There are other considerations that i think deserve to be mentioned like what is the time when he sighed and theres actual concern among the taiwanese whether or not they can support the facilities to accommodate the us so thats another conversation we need to have in parallel. If this will happen longer term then there are facilities that need to be built and the ports cant accommodate larger us vessels. Again, not necessarily an insurmountable barrier but another thing that needs to happen as parallel to our efforts. To go forward. We shouldnt assume this is a Show National turnkey that we can make the law and and it will happen next year. There are other things going on. Truth be told, lets be honest, court visits of naval puzzles around the world its a Diplomatic Initiative in a means and in fact secretary mattis and his counterpart in vietnam are going to have an Aircraft Carrier pulling on bay in a long long time for the first time. There are other ways to transmit that and its a diplomatic decision to do so. Admiral, question regarding chinas use of limited for techniques and techniques to avoid strong retaliatory actions against United States and can you discuss what levels of deterrence the United States can use to counter those type of actions whether its in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea and what can the United States and that we do to [inaudible] right. Great question and it is something that i think the seventh fleet commander all think about. In a broad sense, you want to prevent miscalculation and prevent escalation of tensions and yet on the one hand the pla and in the chinese activities have been Fiscal Authority and without getting into ships bumping into each other there has to be a means by which there are conversations between leaders that prevent those conditions from happening and that is the ideal situation. You can go back and we had the incidences at the agreement with the soviets back in the early 70s because we were in this place where review of the u. S. Navy as having literally there were ships that were bumping into each other and there were these Fiscal Authority and a lot of opportunity for miscalculation and we sat down with the soviets in the early 70s it was when john warner was secretary of the navy and hammered out this incident at sea agreements. I think there is one place where there should be conversations to say as people with gray hair and grandchildren i dont want us to have conflict china. I really dont. At the same time we must not be coerced or pushed and so the rias and the ability to prevent them from pushing aggressive and talkative actions and not being held accountable and not having the modified behavior this is the essence of both statement ship and seamanship, if you will. There are a number and theres a wide spectrum of Different Things you can do but our response, for example, we did freedom of navigation because you dont recognize these claims and so we have, you can go back to ep three incident of 2001 when these aggressive maneuvers and airplanes intercepting and this is a place for grownups in the adult to sit down and make sure that we create a construct where we can operate in International Waters and do our operations without escalating into either miscalculation or conflict. I would add one point. When you talk about a deterrence strategy its a noteworthy point that we now have in our Defense Strategy as edible fox just read that a term that is new and deserves attention more attention than it has gotten i think in the General Press and that the term in the pacific it slips and but it represents a serious thought in World Affairs in one of the most interesting points about strategy is how ones conception of security is related to maps and the idea isolation isolationism, for example, promoted by the fact that americans when they look at a map are looking at the United States and there are these big blue patches on either side and nothing else and then you got canada and mexico and blue. That gives you the impression that we are okay. But it is depending on how you look at the world and what is the center of the map you are looking at. You can have a completely different conception of what the strategic picture is and now, just recently, i dont and i havent done a study on who coined the term or where it first entered into the lexicon but this term in the pacific is really important because its a strategic concept that, i am sure it relates partly to the rise of china, but it also relates partly to the recognition that the United States now has enormous strategic ties and potential strategic ties of great importance, not only to south korea and japan but coming all the way around to india and our strategic conception is related to our relationships and then of course in the center of that art is china and its a way of looking at the world that you didnt get much discussion of until quite recently and you see it in the administrations National Security strategy and National Defense strategy documents and it is worth noting that its a new way of thinking about the grandest, strategic challenges that we are facing. Thank you very much. From the term information for liberty. Id like to know from the to see which panel that, i guess, we have seen some kind of increase in the aggressiveness of chinese geopolitics under the presidency and now we have this very case here that is happened recently and how to use the military capabilities of taiwan if they are doing something to actually act independently from the United States because i have read a book from ten years ago but it was a very analysis of taiwans capabilities and it said that they would never be a conventional invasion of china to taiwan because it would just be too costly to the cost is too high because taiwans capabilities are too strong. I was doubtful about that and i thought maybe the reason for the autism was that he was married to a taiwanese. [laughter] i was doubtful about that and it seems to optimistic for me and i would like to know your opinion on that. First of all, the distances involved even though its only a hundred miles wide thats a long way to go in previous assault. It is not a simple problem and heres what i think is happening and kind of back to the hybrid and the gray activities, cyber infiltration i think the strategy really is to withdraw or to sap the will to resist or be able to defend with a kind of Thoughtful Campaign of dry rot atrophy we can do this militarily its a difficult problem in its hard and for most of taiwan is a big island and a 3 Million People when we, the us, were contemplating invading japan at the end of over two it was a really hard and we had a lot of Good Practice in the years running up to it. I think in amphibious military aspect of an Amphibious Assault against the island of taiwan its militarily feasible and really hard and i think it would be very costly. Then this gets into the risk reward how much is it worth and its much better probably to work in a different way and more indirect and i think we see a number of these things and if you dont have some credible military capability then your diplomats lose traction. They work together. You dont just do one or the other and theres a lot of discussion that you will see here nowadays about our fleet is not enough that we need to build bigger steps and theres been an era in which we have allowed the u. S. Navy has reached a point where it doesnt have enough ships in the maintenance hasnt been done and weve had tragic incidences in the western pacific and so there is a new sharp focus on the fact that you need credible military capability to be able to influence events around the world. You see that kind of talk in the renaissance within the department of the navy and department of defense but back to the question of how hard at not is taiwan to crack for in the previous assault it is hard, it is military feasibly but a costly effort in my opinion. Weve been tracking the chinese modernization started in 2015 closely and a few things are worth highlighting. First of all, the plas selfassessment. People like dennis have written about this extensively that essentially the pla doesnt regard itself as being there yet and they have set these goals for themselves and originally it was 2020 and then 2049 and the latter one of these moved up to 2035 and theyre doing trying to do enormous things in the uncompressed time and its chaotic. You have two phases, [inaudible] below the neck and above the neck and they reorganized other major units of the other commands that come out but this is been on the individual level a chaotic and theres no one knows which offices report which ones and the training is all out of whack and you have that officer level you people who are in charge of a regimen and then there charged with the prograde in this massive change in levels of responsibility and that will take them a while to adapt to and they are either blunt about it and this is something they have to overcome. They are also striving to achieve the Networks High warfare that we have for your sensors and everything like that and everyone can talk to each other. Theyre also not there yet. They will have military exercises where missile batteries can tell the good guys and the bad guys apart so while it is tempting to look at the modernization and say they made this progress and they have especially since 2004 pla or after 2004 in for two Different Things but that is simply they arent there yet and they dont think they are there yet and like to build on what mark is saying they dont have the dubious capacity and if they started to build it then it would be very obvious taiwan would have a lot of time to prepare but it is worth noting that this is a country in the early 2000s was planning on building small, little ship cruise missiles and now theyre Building Four of the largest cruisers simultaneously so enormous industrial capacity certainly could get there and we need to make Smart Investments and what it needs to achieve our mission in terms of the force and things like that but also not there yet. [inaudible] show less text 01 19 15 seth cropsey seth cropsey there making Smart Investments on how to adapt to changing points. They also it all to be pointed out that taiwans navy is a solid and professional one in a good sailors and good officers and taiwan, as you may no, is in the process of designing and building indigenous submarines and one may succeed in accomplishing that and how that improve their defenses will substantially for an Amphibious Assault in all kinds of things that can be do the summering that is one of the things that would fly specifically in this case. It deserves the United States support. Other questions . Well, we are right on target and id like to thank you for joining us this morning. It was a useful and interesting discussion and your questions have been excellent and thank you, panel for your wonderful answers. Cut back this will not be our last discussion of this issue and i hope youll stay tuned and join us for the next one. On newsmakers this weekend, wine randy white garden is the head of this American Federation in the u. S. Talked about School Safety concerns after a deadly shooting in parkland, florida, and responds to the president s proposal to have armed teachers. Its a terrible idea. It shows absolutely no understanding the parents and leadtors all want to schools to be sick want safe schools to be schools to be a sanctuary. Theyre like oh, this is what the nra wanted all along. This is where the president , after that listening session, took this conversation, instead of actually trying to reduce gun violence in our streets and in our schools . When you think about it it, its, itsis an insane suggestion, because what he going to do, our kindergarten teachers going to wear guns on their hips . Justou talking about handguns versus an ar15 that can shoot 90 rounds in one minute . Are happens if people rushing along in a hallway . But as a teacher going to do . What is a teacher going to do . I can go through unanswered questions, and the more you insane idea it is. You can watch the rest of that interview with Randi Weingarten today at 12 40 p. M. And 6 00 p. M. Eastern here on cspan. Wednesday morning, were live in santa fe, new mexico for the next up on the cspan bus to capitals