[captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2017] just under an hour were down to our last panel. Im going to recognize the moderator of the panel, to make remarks and tory roductions, the honor john from colorado. Thank you, jim. This next panel will give us some insights on what the future might look like. They are going to start by looking backwards over the past to let us kind of get a capsule size look on how the country has changed. If you told me back in 1992, hat we have now, a i wouldnt have believed it. The explosion of the internet. Unbelievable changes in telecommunications. Demographic changes, social changes, just how we do everything. Different world than we had 25 years ago. Any of if you believe these, whether its morse law or any of these compounding 25 leration laws, the next years the rate of change will be even more rapid. Opefully that rate of change will be for the better. Our panel is going to offer a glimpse of what that future holds. Promise of whats possible and some of the challenges that the for us. Oses tos a chance for us to begin think about the actions we can future. For that today are tim fry, senior rd researcher at the Pew Research Center and the director of state public policy. Someone is calling me on my cell phone. Not going to answer. From microsoft, we look forward to your remarks, and robust conversation changing face of the wes west. Good afternoon, and thanks for the opportunity to share team and i that my have been learning around the office at gallup. Ill share for five or seven minutes about some of the things relates to d as it k12 education, college workplace. Nd the some of the transitions that fall within that. I think maybe the first thing, is first thing i would share that over the last 10 years weve had a lot of time and attention and good advances in assessment and curriculum and thats really it on the radar screen as relates to education. There, ade good advances but the countrys attention as it relates to k12 education seems to be changing, and it changing to things we call the socialemotional learning. This understanding that there is more to our experience than how we did on the test. Four children i would love to know they will be graded tests because that helps to make college more affordable, of benefits to that maybe tests are necessary but not sufficient. One of the things that weve studying is this idea of Student Engagement. This belief youre involved with about your stic school day experience. That involves safety. That involves having a teacher and so on. About you so last month, actually in ctober, we surveyed about 800,000 students. Fifth grade through 12th grade cross the country to see how engaged they were and also to study their entrepreneurial career and and financial literacy. What we pound is that 50 of the nations students are engaged in school. I dont know if thats a good number or bad number. I wish it was a hundred percent but 50 . Some are not engaged, and there actively that are disengaged, but when i see a number like 50 i want to know how did we get there . Got s a picture of how we there. The nations fifth graders or the Elementary School students engaged at a are rate of three out of four. About 74 of the fifth grade students are engaged. As you notice there is a precipitous decline each year. Nine. , seventh, eighth, it flat lines in 1011 12, in school. But weve got about 3 4 of our engaged in t are 1 3 ntary school but only that are engaged when they get to high school. Thats a system issue we need to be aware of and we certainly need to address. Whats working at tempt school evel in terms of parent involvement, parent engagement and so on. So its a whole system challenge. When we look at the whole system, we know there are several important components. One is great leadership. Work with School Districts across the country and oftentimes have an opportunity o meet with Successful Schools that have been through a great turnaround and have a great story to tell. A Successful School where people apologize for the principal. Here is always a strong leader hen there is Great Success at the school. One of the most important things a School Leader does is select the right talented teachers to be on their staff. Bee of us are predisposed to great at different jobs and some people have a talent to teach. This inherent belief that every can learn and get a kick out of learning and growing and with that andated so on. Got to identify and hire those talented teachers and mitigate the Teacher Shortage that many of our states are dealing with. Once they are on our staff weve got to make sure they are engaged. An engaging credit workplace. A great place to work and learn where they are involved with and nthusiastic about their job so they can give it away to the students that they serve. When students are engaged, they to achieve. Ely how we feel today drives how well achieve into the future, got to deal with these social and emotional issues around Student Engagement so on as a leading indicator of student achievement and when students achieve, we know there are more prepared to and career ready and its no longer a college or career ready. Its and. To prepare all students for both. When we think about the next a el, the Key Attributes of successful collegiate experience, there is kind of three things that stand out. Is, some key experiences. Weve partnered with purdue university, governor Mitch Daniels was a real catalyst work early on. My colleagues and others at gallup to study the key xperiences so we surveyed hundreds of thousands of College Alumni and asked them a series diduestions about what they while they were at college. We found there is really no difference about whether a College Graduate is going to be in their thriving life based on whether they went to a private college or public those highly of ranked colleges we talked about or the rest. What really matters is how they go. Experiences. A lot of dhaums down to having an adult on campus who cared about them. Mentor. Plugged them into a career math and so on and also key experiences in deep learning. Successive curriculum that builds off one semester to the next and so on. Internships and onthejob has been mentioned here. Its the thing most often mentioned when we ask employers hat they are looking for in a perspective employee to join their team. So they want to know, have you ever had a job before . In more thannicate 140 characters without using emojis and so on . And then last is managing the Student Loan Debt. The numbers have increased even 1. 1 trillion. Trillion. Lly 1. 4 Student Loan Debt is the largest, greater than all the thanoans combined, greater out the outstandings credit card, involving line of credit debt. 1. 4 trillion. Thats a millionmillion for those who dont work with that zeros. I drove by the airport and there was a sign that said what the is. Erball jackpot if you won the powerball today and said i want to solve the student debt crisis and you all the winnings of the Powerball Jackpot it would cover the interest on those loans dinnertime tonight so weve got a real situation on our hands thats hard to get our heads around. Help students make informed decisions. 25,000, got more than youre about half as likely to pursue different decisions in life, like moving out of your parents home, purchasing your own home, going back to graduate school, starting a new business, and becoming an entrepreneur. And so on. So we know there is a lot family, in fact, is even less likely if youve got large amounts of Student Loan Debt. Thing ill share is just this general term about changing in the work force. Generation, t whether its the advent of the 38 of our work force is now in he millennial generation or increasing Technology Advances or whatever it is, the work force has changed. Changed from where we care just about our paycheck to where we care about our purpose. In our to have a purpose work that matters to us. Its changed from being involved to whats my role opportunities to learn and grow and develop . When we study teacher turnover why teachers leave the profession, people assume its because of pay and benefits. But teachers leaving the actually less likely to say its pay an benefits driving that decision to exit. Answer they give is because they dont know a path forward. They dont see growth within the role to stayd that with the school so we know weve got to address that. Focusing on our weaknesses, world gives us enough of that, we need to focus on our strengths. 17 million over people identify their talent and harness that for good. Weve transitioned from having a leader or a boss that tells us what to do, to this desire to a coach who comes alongside us and coaches us along in our reviews annual probably necessary, but certainly not sufficient, in terms of our experience. E need to have more regular interaction with our colleagues and with our supervisors and so on, and finally, a transition this separation of work and the rest of my life to this work a e integration, and really focus on integrating all of this my entire life. Maybe there will be some remarks and ill hand it off to my colleagues here on the panel and be glad to entertain any questions that you have at the conclusion. Thank you. Good afternoon. In my brief remarks today im focus on two challenges. And focusing on u. S. Work force going to be on quality of labor and the other be on the quantity of labor. Im discuss the first one first, he quantity of labor and in my view, i would not only say its a challenge but also headwind. Ze it as a the second one on trends and quality of on the labor, im more ambiguous about, there are some positive aspects to it. First to the quantity of labor. What this shows is, my pew research the have done projections, which were defining as ages 2564. Labor force. He its very, very dicey to sort of project Labor Force Participation rates. We leave that to the bureau of labor statistics. His is the working age population but this provides the force. Of the u. S. Labor and what you see here is a sand chart but dont worry about the sand. Just look at the top line, the population, g age you see a vertical line. To the 015, as you look left, thats the past 50 years u. S. Working he age population, from 65 to 2015, thats history. Those are actual numbers, and 20yearthe right is our projection Going Forward from 2015 to 2035. You see Going Forward to 2035, the 2015 will growe population by about 10 million, 25 to the key thing ut here is very simple. Look to the left. And look how y, steep that growth in the working age population was. As opposed to that, look to the right and what we project. Much, much ting reduced growth Going Forward in the working age population. Put some numbers on it, the decade over the last 50 ears, the working age population grew by about. 8 per year. Than 1 per year. That was the slowest decade of years. T 50 Going Forward, the next 20 years, we project that the will onlye population grow by about. 3 per year. So about a third less. Now, we can discuss this in the q a period. An economist. Economists, what they think is, of way the u. S. Standard living goes up is two ways. Get per ity, what you worker, and how many workers got to grow the labor force. Headwind. When the Current Administration goal 3 annual a growth, thats the number they are shooting for and talking headwind. Is is a its going to be difficult to steady growth on a continuing basis year after year our sustained basis when working age population is only growing. 3 . Okay. I dont want to spend a lot next slide, but we had a lot of immigration to and 1990s. The 1980s okay . But the growth in the working in the 60s, 80s, and 1990s, it wasnt so much dependent on the baby boomers. We had a lot of married women who didnt used to be in the coming into the labor force. Back in history, over the last immigration has been important but it wasnt critical, Going Forward, that. 3 per year, that is highly contingent on sustained about a Million Immigrants coming in per year. What this slide shows is that if levels of ur immigration, and this is a line threat a hypothetical there are ot of pros and cons to grargz in one thing Going Forward, age growth in the population, grargz to the u. S. Will play larger role. Turn to a Different Research project that weve done and talk about the quality of times r force, and for sake, im going to advance to slide. Llowing hat we did is we looked at the skill requirements of u. S. Jobs. Just a little bit of background. Department of labor in a Data Collection thats called ownit, they very in very the led fashion, looked at characteristics of well over 900 u. S. Occupations. They survey workers, and they lso have job raters that actually go out and talk to the orkers, and in very detailed fashion, they describe more than 900 occupations. Hat we did is, we looked at sort of characteristics. They are very detailed but we looked at about a dozen that we captured social skills on the job. Interpersonal communication, and also management skills. Thats what we mean by social skills. Call analytical skills, these were, again, about criteria fferent job both Critical Thinking ability as well as usage. Er we looked at ly, jobs that have above average, social skills. Above average, high, analytical skills. And high or above average physical skills. Now, keep in mind, that there is an overlap. Some jobs need both high social skills. And analytical a good example being a chief officer will have good social skills as well as analytical skills. And so a pharmacist, these are not mutually exclusive. But anyway, cutting to the the , lets first do history, what we saw from 1980 is that total employment in the u. S. Grew by 50 . But jobs that required high or above average social skills they almost doubled. Growing by 83 . Jobs in occupations that high analytical skills, doubled, n, almost to that 7 as opposed jobs that required high analytical skills only grew by is,ut 18 so what im saying the mix of jobs is changing in u. S. And its changing toward jobs that require higher particularly in our categorization, higher social and analytical skills, have been rements going up. Why is this not necessarily a bad thing . We also found that jobs with social skills and above average analytical skills also tend to have higher wages. So, the employment mix is but were creating more high wear jobs as a result. The employment mix is changing its more towards good jobs challenge . The as you know, they may be good were t as weve seen, all wondering as to how were going to get our students and ur workers as well as benefiting our employers helping skills they are need. To at the Pew Research Center, occupational to do projections. Okay . Its very difficult. Department of labor, the bureau of labor statistics does try. Based on their most recent 10year projections of to employment is going change from 2014 to 2024. A detailed set of ougss and they say how employment will grow. Is we said, okay. A taxonomy of which jobs equire high social skills, analytical skills and physical skills. Since 1980, the mix has been analyticalwards high and high social. According to their projections, correct, this trend is going to continue. Nd so the basic messages here, im going to end up here, is we ace two challenges Going Forward. Unlike the previous 50 years, here our standard of living partly was driven forward by a large baby we have got a head Going Forward according to our projections because we are not going to get the growth in the working age population we had previously. That is a headwind and it is going to make 3 growth in the standard of living very, very difficult. Also the skill mix is changing. This is a mix toward better paying jobs. However, we all face the challenge of how we are going to help our workers and employers find those highly skilled workers. Thank you. [applause] good afternoon. So im perhaps the last thing standing between this group and happy hour. Is that right . Well have a couple of questions. Perfect, ok. Always an enviable position to have. As governor hickenlooper alluded to, we live in a time of profound change. At microsoft, we find it helpful sometimes to reflect upon not simply the changes weve seen in the last 25 years, but the changes in the life of our company. Microsoft was founded in 1975 in albuquerque, new mexico, in the midst of a revolution wrought by the microprocessor. And bill gates and paul allen had a very simple vision. And that was to put a p. C. On every desk and in every home. Three decades later, we see a smartphone in every hand and every pocket. Four decades later, we see even more profound changes, and our company has changed. We are no longer the Little Software startup from albuquerque that then moved to seattle. We are now a big, multinational, Cloud Computing company. We have thousands of employees, not just in seattle or silicon valley, but we have a campus in Engineering Center outside salt lake city. We have employees in arizona, nevada, colorado, all throughout the west. But were also part of what a lot of people are referring to as the fourth industrial revolution. Its a revolution thats driven principally by Cloud Computing. Cloud computing, meaning the provision of services over the internet using massive data centers that can collect, store, and process huge volumes of information extremely quickly. This trend is changing everything, every industry, every segment of society. It is what is bringing us autonomous vehicles.