Transcripts For CSPAN Middle East Politics And Security 20171219

Robert good morning. Welcome to the Washington Institute. Satloff, the director. Im delighted to welcome all of you to this policy forum trip report from a trip that i, my three colleagues, and 50 members of the Washington Institutes board of trustees undertook just about one week ago completing it, to the gulf. Let me just very briefly introduce my colleagues up there. My immediate left, kate bauer, a former u. S. Treasury official Family Fellow at the institute. She will speak after me offering impressions specifically about our visit to abu dhabi. Lori plotkins boghardt. She is a former u. S. Government Intelligence Analyst who will be prepared in our q a to talk about all sorts of issues from counterterrorism and counter radicalization to social change going on in the gulf and at the far end of the table is mike singh,our former National Security Council Director who will also participate in our q a session talking about all sorts of issues under the sun trump Strategic Issues to u. S. Bilateral relationships with the countries in question. Again, this was an unusual trip that we took in the sense that it was a large delegation. There were 55 of us all told who traveled from riyadh to muscat to abu dhabi. Relationships wite countries in question. Capn, this was an unusual that we took in the sense that it was a large delegation. There were 55 of us all told who toveled from riyadh to muska abu dhabi. This itinerary planned quite a long time ago. It was meant to reflect change that is going on in a very small area, when you think about it. Three very different countries. Undergoing their own internal change, especially visible in terms of the transformation that is underway in saudi arabia, but it is not alone in having a process of the mystic change. Each of whom is domestic change. Byh of whom is governed their geography in which they said, that has a powerful determining factor for their regional strategy and Foreign Policy. I will say, mostly some words about saudi arabia but a word about oman. I will not say much about oman and the way that we were unfortunately there are over a weekend but we did have the opportunity to meet a wide variety of all money officials omanio see variety of officials and see the difference in the structure between say oman and riyadh. Where you sit determines were you stand. Is theor an policy oman Foreign Policy a starkly different from that of its neighbor and that was obvious from conversations with officials and their openness to all regional partners and their middleman role with the iranians and we can get into that a little later on. Just one final preparatory word in case anyone is wondering, this trip was totally financed and supported to by the Washington Institute aside from a few delicious meals that work provided. This was on our dime, not any local officials. The purpose of the trip was really to decide for ourselves as specialists and the leaders of the Washington Institute how real and serious are the prospect of change in these countries. How real and serious and considered carefully is the regional strategy pursued by these capitals and for us to decide for ourselves whether when alltold, the obama critique that this is a swamp in which the United States should stay out from which the United States should just stay out or alternatively, is this a part of the world where we should be deeply engaged in order to assist the parties for their own benefit and for our National Interest . Which one of these basic decisions is right . And, i will say more about that a little bit later on. So let me make some comments about saudi arabia. Arrived in riyadh on our opening night, i reminded our group that traditionally, saudi arabia is based on three pillars. God, and oil. You can make her own determination on what is more important than the other. That keeps family together, traditionally. The saudi leadership has had a strategy based on the division of power among various branches of the family. Rotation of leadership among the various branches of the family. It, spreading of wealth among the various branches of the family. Were to flashforward and think about where saudi arabia is today, all of these three pillars are being. Ethought and reconsidered so, the saudi worldview since tothe year in which to sort of catastrophic events occurred, one being that the mega mosques to go over and the other being the arabian revolution, this triggered enormous change within the kingdom in terms of say, the god saudi and it led institutions, religious institutions, down a path of extremism. Which has now caught up with them. And the leadership clearly recognizes that. Secondly, the money pillar, the wealth pillar, the perception is this is running out. Certainly running out in the manner of spending that has historically been the case. The third pillar is that to fix these first two problems of anigious extremism and of economy that does not produce with country needs, you cannot keep the family together in the same manner that it has been the past. Her in so therefore there is currently underway in saudi arabia egg in saudieriment arabia, a big, risky, experiment. I gambled to change the nature of society as a way to change the nature of it the economy and to change how leadership is determined and how power is wielded in the kingdom. A modernizing experiment. The record of course of modernizing from the top down in the middle east is mixed at best. If one were to look at the record of ranging from turkey to borghi via and tunisia, the shah of iran, the record is shall we say mixed. But that is the path in which the leadership is taken. A genetic transformation from the top down a dramatic transformation from the top down. This is not about democracy. This is not about liberalism in the traditional sense. In my view, is about how to rescue the saudi kingdom from the realities of the limits that it now faces. The limits of its experience with islamic institutions in the last order century. The limits of its reliance on traditional sources of revenue method ofmits of this leadership die fuse leadership among the branches of the family that may have brought it so far but according to the current leadership just not seem to be the path to the future. Aftere basic strategy meeting with a broad range of government officials and private entrepreneurs and Young Students and highlevel Senior Leaders, the basic strategy seems to me yet and i believe this reflects the view of my colleagues, is to methodically. Wly, and to make haste. Incremental but real change in the role women play in society, and the concept of work in elements of the economy and how leadership is apportioned within the ruling family. We saw this with the various people we met. There is a huge injection of enthusiasm for change that appears to be coming from the hundreds of thousands of alumni of american universities. King of dollar have an giving scholarship of up to Jane Abdullah giving scholarships to a large majority coming to the having givenlah scholarships to it a large majority. Knowledge to their work in universities, taking jobs in new critters. I remember one fancy restaurant we were at one night, we met the head chef. A woman who was the head chef over a staff of all men. I set one evening next are young woman phd in Computer Science who is the dean of a local new university. Or young guy who gave up his government job to open up his own italian bakeries selling can always of all things. Selling can only of all cannoli of allng things. The one thing i came away from was that people are banking on change. They did not want some foreign adventure, some foreign and tingle. Someone elses issue to derail the process. I think many of our group were particularly impressed by what Senior Leaders said about shall we say moderate islam. Rethinking traditional views of how islamist interpreted, mandated, and executed. The basic idea for rationale for this changes to go back to the model of the profit and his immediate circle. For men and women separated in the seventh century . No. Did women worked in . Of course. The profits were all married and older women were successful of apreneurs and not model successful woman often or something that saudis are now folding to. Met the crown prince he was joined by a handful of senior saudi leaders and most of them made sense to me. The minister of interior, minister planning, National Security adviser, but then sitting two seats over was the head of the National Entertainment authority and at the time i was wondering, why is the head of the National Entertainment authority on this platform with all of these special security figures and the crown prince actually did not have time in his remarks to us to explain why this gentleman was sitting two seats away from him but two days later of course we learn that he was there because saudi arabia was about women, movie theaters to all part of this incremental but in saudi context, very significant move toward integrating women fully in the social fabric of the country and a public sense. This ini saw a hint of a fascinating exchange we had with the head of the Muslim World League when we asked about nonmuslim prayer in saudi arabia and when that might be allowed. The answer in fact was not that it is her bed and in islam, which was the answer expected him to say. Rather he mentioned that the current rulers are following the practice of previous rulers in this territory. Implying to my ears that the ban on nonmuslim prayer was a immutable not an aspect of islamic law. I found that very interesting. I also found interesting on this front numbers. Very specific numbers from very high leaders in the country, namely 70 of personnel and religious institutions were by saudi accounts extremists up until just two years ago. That purges have taken place and that number is now down to 20 with the goal of 5 30 years from now. We can take these demos for what verysay but the idea that high levels of government would for such numbers, to my ears was a stark admission of responsibility for religious extremism and certainly a commitment to change. Onoverall sense was that domestic matters, the regime has a clear sense of where they want to go and how to get there. It will not be easy, of course. It may fail. If youre under 35 or 40, you are a winner and you supported. If you are over 50, you are probably a loser and chances are likely that you oppose it. There are lots of potential losers and this change. A senior minister said to us that the saudis now estimate that for many years 8 10 of the Saudi National budget has been siphoned off for corruption. You can do the numbers. The 2017 budget was about 240 or so billion dollars. Do the math. A lot of money. A lot of them are in the royal family and immediate circle surrounding it. To cut out that level of corruption, if indeed that is the case, is certainly going to process. T front with danger for the people benefits ofhe corruption and front with danger for those who are trying to root to doubt if that is the case. At the same time, falling threats and challenges all around. The most urgent and threatening coming from iran, its friends, allies, and proxies. It is unclear to me that they ofe the same clarity strategy and confronting the external threats as they do in their efforts to promote internal reform. On yemen, saudi arabia has been on the receiving end of dozens of missiles of killed large numbers would a very Senior Leaders said to us imagine what america would do if cuba launched missiles into miami. You guys would drop the aone. I could have closed my ears centered leaders of another thatry not to far away regularly has missiles dropped on them offering exactly the same response. How to deal with human remains a challenge. We were in riyadh right during the crazy days when political tack was changed and the leader was killed, cannot say i have a clear idea of exactly where saudi arabia and it allies are going but i can say they are very sensitive to charges of the purposeful charging of civilians. We were given the opportunity, invited to visit the air operations command. They brought us and the room where you can see dozens of saudi air controllers offering realtime instructions to pilots flying every yemen. Plate glass the window waving at us were american and british air liaison officers. From my perspective, it it work. It is tough to imagine those american and british officers playing a role in the purposeful and deliberate bombing of civilians. Does it happen . By air, confidence . Air,is an account by competence does it happen . Error . Incompetence . We did not hear a lot of answers to the famous David Petraeus question, how does this end. Namely, how does the qatar crisis and . We did not hear how the lebanese crisis will and. We heard a lot about the party of the devil, the saudis preferred name for hezbollah. We had a lot of warnings that the upcoming lebanese election should be stopped because it is about to permanently empower hezbollah, who is likely to have constitutional change and dramatically change the political makeup of that country. We did hear more upbeat portrayal of the situation in iraq than i had imagined. Namely that the current Iraqi Government with the strong support of riyadh as pushing back on iranian influence there. It seems optimistic to me. Very interesting. In all of this, there was only one operational request we heard of the United States. Yes, they would like to see tougher u. S. Measures to stop weapons smuggling into yemen. They would like to see america take hezbollah down a notch. But the one ask, the only ask we syria. As regarding east namely, specific request that its deploymentin in Eastern Syria as the essential element in blocking hand inian land bridge helping to contain irans spreading influence and that area. As for runs strategy itself, the basic idea as a nun seated by a senior saudi leader was containment. Pushback iranian influence, bottled him up until such time as the iranian people bring about the change that will eventually come. If we dont assertively contain them now, we were told, military confrontation becomes inevitable. I have written elsewhere on israel, the Peace Process and jerusalem. I will not repeat everything i have written elsewhere here. Suffice it to say we are there on the day of and the day after the president s announcement on israel as the capital. If we did not race issue with our interlocutors, im not sure wouldve been raised by them. When we did raise it, the response was measured and moderate, put in the context of larger saudi relations, larger buildaudi efforts to israelipalestinian peace, to which the saudis were committed. At the end of which, saudi arabia could see itself happiness while could see itself having a mutually beneficial relationship with israel. This was not really saudi hospitality, i desire not to raise unpleasant issues with guests, there are many great ways to raise unpleasant issues pleasantly through sorrow and not through anger. In fact, i was in saudi arabia in the summer of 2000 precisely precisely when the camp david summit was going on. With crown prince abdulla right in the middle of that summit. He certainly found a way to express his views on the issue to our guests, to our delegation. And i am sure the saudi leadership, if they had had greatconsternation, frustration, great anger, wouldve found a way to express that to us. Instead, i believe they made up purposeful effort to express their views to us in a manner that they did. So, that is the story. Real dynamism on the mystic front with a clear sense of direction. Deep frustration and fear on the foreign front with a willingness to act that is unusual in looking at it, saudi history. But with somewhat less clarity of purpose or design. In my view, we, the United States, can play a very useful role by helping them with the latter while playing a supportive and encouraging role in providing an encouraging environment for the former. In other words, and broad strokes, we should walk the proceed and weto should do our best with the saudis in order to build on our common desire regarding the regional strategy and to help them refine that strategy to make it more effective, more targeted, clearer with specific achievements and working in closer concert with its partners, especially here in washington. Those are my views on our visit to saudi arabia. I will turn it over to tate for what we learned in the uae. First there to say thank you for the ability to participate in this. In saudi for our hosts arabia, oman, and the uae. It was an honor to participate with my colleagues and with such an engaged group of trustees. A truly amazing time to be in the region and not just because the weather was very superb. We returned to a chilly washington, d. C. So we arrived, picking up from where rob left off, energized by the experience in saudi and rested from our weekend in oman. The uae was import stop to make the cousin no doubt it served as a model in the region because of it first fight economy and its commitment to tolerance and moderation. It is also an important u. S. Ally. I keep her caps on countered terrorism, a key ally and the counter isis fight. And important in the terms of militarymilitary relationship. Contrast se, in dynamics, no shortage of which were related to saudi arabia and the reform proceeded. How it considering the focus in recent years on uaes ability to project power militarily, we afford a lot about the little sparta, the uae being fighting a alongay you s fighting side the u. S. And fighting in the Saudi Coalition in yemen, what we heard, at least what i heard more and our meetings with uae officials related to soft power. One of the overarching themes was the fight of counter extremism and the need to emphasize development and governance and other countries and the region. Washat i came away with actually what i felt was a rather cohesive view from the admiralty perspective of the region from the admiralty mirate. E e primary issues. On around, it was no surprise iran, it was no surprise that yemen featured very central given the threat to the cooties. Houthis. Hreat to the verynterlocutors were easily making comparison between yemen and has a lot in lumina. Hezbollah. Yemen and talking about how the israeli withdrawal left a vacuum filled ladingn and i struck the that their presence in yemen dax and extract relating extrapolating that their presence in yemen they had our weariness of hasing with parties which perhaps been overcome in part that ands with one of the leaders. I was left with the impression that their view of containing iran meant containing them in yemen or where they saw iran interfering in the domestic politics or the mystic affairs of regional sunni arab countries. Whereas, the view from washington, if you was focused labonte nte lavante. Of focus inwe see the october speech on countering islam and yemen. Levant was raised, what sense of ending was not articulated . Salon and runs interference in the set so on iran bangs interference, emphasizing the role of Economic Development and counter extremism to shore up development. They acknowledge they were perhaps too slow to engage a rock and echoed the saudi commitment to engage direct bank extremism, i found the uae less shy on how it tolerates, i also felt i heard more acknowledgment of the role of religious ideology and extremism in the region and this was something i also found in saudi arabia and i am happy to talk about that more in q a and i think my colleague lori as well. For me,bumper sticker the phrase that i felt like a summed up this cohesive regional strategy, was when one official ground us that they their counter extremism policies into anchors, and saudi arabia and in egypt and that in larger to be credible they need to fly those two flags and that is because saudi arabia, being the birthplace of islam and egypt of the it houses one premium places for training religious scholars in the region. I saw this much of that uae Foreign Policy in recent years if you can see the uae strong support for the government in egypt and the sisi government their involvement, their support for saudi arabia but also of you that part of what they are doing in yemen is saudi arabia and prevent the yemen conflict from destabilizing saudi arabia so more moderate islam pursuit as has been mentioned. Likewise, regarding President Trumps announcement under islam and bz as he was quoted actually in local press and from our meeting, his comment on the president s statement was that it can be a rallying cry for extremist so the focus here was on that and not on other aspects of that decision. It also our interlocutors noted they welcomed u. S. Efforts to reinvigorate the Peace Process and looked forward to a time when peace had been achieved and you with the israeli flags flying and every arab capital. Struck me was the cohesiveness of this Foreign Policy and the kind of theme of counter extremism that lived. Hrough it for example, the arent that to yemen is a threat to for example, there ran bank for example, the iranian threat to yemen. I had the opportunity to stay behind and do some side meetings the commercial sector and Financial Sector in dubai and i think one thing worth noting is that there is a sense that this is an uncertain time in the region. An confidence that we hear official meetings, acknowledgments this is going to be a long fight, but in the commercial sector there is a sense of uncertainty. While the crisis did not receive considerable attention in our meetings commented amongst the folks i spoke with in dubai and i think this view that the gcc is not just a political entity but also a Common Market that has common standards and that fear of the dissolution of these brings uncertainty to those working in to buy into the model of dubai is a platform, a Value Proposition that you can work in dubai across the region. I also heard anecdotally stories of rising nationalism on both sides of the qatar crisis which left those in the commercial sector with these sense that this was an entrenched conflict that would not be resolved anytime soon. About thealso concern assertiveness of saudi Foreign Policy, the ongoing expenses incurred through the conflicts ,n yemen as well as the efforts the anticorruption efforts in saudi arabia and where that might deter investment from the gcc outside of the gcc. So, i do not want to overstate that because the uae is a small country and dubai in particular center,ional financial does well as long as the regional economy does well and as long as the Global Economy does well. As a small country, the uae is clearly pursuing a policy of promoting stability in an unstable region. It recognizes these are long rights, the fight against extremism and countering iran and while they are willing to take on these fights, as we heard, they also are taken late to impress upon allies the importance of l. A. Support for civility in the countries they identified in their regional strategy. So i have not come at the. Of our stop in the uae but i look forward thank you very much, kate. Before i turned your questions, two other remarks i forgot to mention in the death they deserve. I wanted to specifically thank the governments of saudi arabia, the sultan of oman, and United Arab Emirates for opening up to our group. It is not everyday that a delegation of 55 strong comes to these places. It is an unusual visit for them as it was for us and we were given remark access in all three places for which our delegation was pleased. The delegation was thrilled with our visits all around. The second is i wanted to also thank the u. S. Embassies in each of the places we visited. We made it a point to have briefings from the heads of mission. Whether that is the cherchez in riyadh or ambassadors and oman or abu dhabi, also gave the time and insight. They really provided extraordinarily valuable looks at how politics is going in all these places. I can say with certainty we are well represented in all the places in which we visited. With that, we will turn the floor over to your questions. Yes. I watched it on a webcast on the dysfunction of the middle east, robin wright, bruce fred l. I did not hear any of the optimism. I dont know if you read or so or saw anything about the u. S. Ip but i wonder if you could address it. Are you really as optimistic as you seemed or do you see the future of the middle east a mess of uncertainty . Do you attribute any political implications to the arrest in riyadh last week . Maybe i can talk about optimism. I did not have a chance to see the u. S. Ip panel. When it comes to saudi arabia, bruce is one of the smartest observers of the country. I would say we have optimism mixed with pessimism. I think meeting with leaders in saudi arabia and ordinary people you come away with a sense of sincerity. That there is a desire to transform the economy. There is a desire to engage in real social reform. At the same time, i think it would be foolish to underestimate the scale of the challenges saudi arabia in particular faces. This movement from an oil dominated economy to one which is private sector led and diversified. I would be hardpressed to come up with an example of a country that has successfully done that. That challenge is there. Some of the people weve met were realistic about that. I think doing that without any hint of political reform is is more difficult. Another big challenge is the succession from one generation to the next. You had this very smooth relatively some of Succession Process rather to brother. Now it has to skip down to the next generation and we simply dont know if it will be asked it will be as smooth. The jury is still out on that. Its hard not to come away from meeting with nbs and believing hes sincere about the transformation. But it is also hard to not be concerned about some of the other things we see going on. And you wonder if this will be something that goes smoothly or if it will face real challenges. If you look at the regional at saudif you look Foreign Policy, you see a alignment with the United States in terms of concerns about iran. At the same time, i think there is great reason to be skeptical about yemen and where that comfort is going. Theres great reason to be skeptical about this introduce the conflict. In many ways i think folks in washington would say these things detract from our effort to take on iran. I wouldnt go back to our gcc colleagues, one of the things they said about President Trumps recognition of jerusalem. This seems like an opening for iran. This seems like something that can be exploited by the adversaries were trying to counter. I think one of the things which contributes to that, you still see the country and the region themselves will not be able to provide regionwide leadership. There are too many provisions and too many constraints you on the saudi arabia for not that far field. There is a need for very strong american leadership. Alignment of interests between allies the saudis, or israelis. , to harness a bigger purpose in the sense across the region. I think we see more of transactional cooperation from conflict to conflict and hope we will see that. We have the National Security strategy being available today. Thank you for your question, in washington for legitimate reasons we are concerned with political vulnerability of saudi arabia. Of it moving so quickly and dramatically. It was interesting to hear the saudi view of this. The saudis really are the first to admit that the pace of change that theyre pursuing is not the politically risky. But they feel not moving dramatically enough is more risky. When we try to drill down exactly what that means with our saudi interlocutors, it was different think the different it was Different Things to different people. I think the fundamental issue is this drop in oil income. And the need to change the social contract between the traditional relationship between the Political Leadership and the religious leadership in saudi arabia. I think we all came away with the view that the saudis feel they are under great threat domestically and regionally. They feel this is the way forward, fast and dramatic change and we should do all we can to help them succeed in that effort. Questions . Patrick. Up in front. Here you go. Thank you. Could you discuss attitudes from you met with toward President Trump . How important and successful is he . How useful . What are their concerns about their relationship with the Trump Administration or with the president Going Forward . That among theou most senior saudis with whom we met when this issue was posed directly, the response was, and im paraphrasing, we do with the we deal with the United States, we respect President Trump, we dont have a view on who america chooses as its leader. We do appreciate the fact he has changed the paradigm of american Foreign Policy from a desire for outreach to iran to recognition of iran as a main source of regional mischief and troublemaking. The officials with whom we that, i do not recall any further personalizing of the discussion. We did not talk about the Russian Investigation or tweeting or that sort of thing. It did not come up. Ambassador cutler . First, congratulations to you and the institute. I can tell you what i was out there this would not have happened. Sign, notat is a good just for the institute, but for trends in the country. There are two issues that have not really changed very much and yet they had when i was there. Iran, of course, was a big concern. Although, i think over the years that has increased to the point where you remember tom friedman called it and obsession. I dont know whether anybody here in this room has seen the video thats just come out. If youve seen that of a saudi attack on iran, i tell you it is mindboggling. I dont know quite the origin of that and why. It is worrisome. What it is, it is a mockup, alldigital, about an attack by iran on some saudi planes. And an attack by saudi arabia, not only on planes but on the country. On the capital, which is really something. I think the iran factor has increased over these years. On palestine, i did not meet with anybody out there during my years when the first subject was not palestine, and our policy since our lack of help on that, i was interested in your meeting with nbs and you said did not want to talk about jerusalem. I guess you asked him. I dont think that would have been the case when i was there. On the other hand, i have seen a couple of other statements. I dont believe you have seen the statement put out by the prince of turkey. Really tough. Tougher than his boss. A few others. Do you sense any difference in leadership . Or is this based upon who is visiting . I do not have an idea what a leader wants to say. I know what they do say. I also have i read the statements attributed to king solomon, the official saudi statement, all of which were quite direct on this issue. I cannot but come away with the report that in a series of meetings with senior saudi leaders, including the crown prince, at no time was the issue raised by our interlocutors. It was commented upon in response to questions. I dont want to suggest that, that anybody was congratulatory of the president for the decision that he took. That certainly wasnt the case. But there was, i think, a sense of proportion and where this fit into overall saudi Foreign Policy. Just in a broader sense, a word about this, not so much in the saudi case, i think in general the response to the president s decision on jerusalem called into question three assumptions that have long been held about how arabs and muslims react politically to certain things that need people to look much more closely at them. Number one, that when arabs and muslims propose policies, they only do it violently. Thats quite a derogatory view to hold. They can oppose policies and have positions and reflect their political views nonviolently. As many have and many do and many should and thats the reality. Secondly, the idea that governments today are as eager to use the palestine issue and are able to use the palestine issue the way that the used it in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. And i do not think that is the case. Third, the fundamental resonance of this issue, which i think has decreased. It has not disappeared by any stretch of the imagination, but given the other items that crowd and out of the public agenda, it has relatively decreased. Thats just a political reality. On the saudi iran point, look, i think that we heard sort of different takes in saudi arabia and the uae. There is a heavy focus on iran and its understandable. From my point of view, as someone who studies iran closely, you are seeing a time right now where they are more aggressive regionally than they have been. We have seen their proxies very active in yemen and the gulf countries themselves. And on the other side in afghanistan and so forth. I think that focus is heavier in saudi arabia in part because you have a iranian missiles being fired into saudi arabia, whether against southern provinces or others. In the uae, think you here i think you here perhaps a slightly different take. There is still perhaps the focus on iran, but as kate said, the sense that we need to focus on our own internal kind of defenses in a sense against extremists and so forth. Ensuring that our military defenses are strong, making sure economies are resilient and so forth. The u. S. Would like to see these countries focus on those things in addition to civilly focusing on the more military defenses and countering of what iran is doing. And i think we would like to see these countries, again, take more leadership in resolving some of these regional conflicts to deny them those opportunities. I meet with iranian officials sometimes as well. Whats interesting is you hear a lot less from those officials about whats happening in the region than you do from say, saudi arabia. You hear more about the United States, europe, russia or china. It reflects that iran sees itself as a global power in a way that other countries in the region perhaps dont. I would say that be would i would say that we would like these countries in the region to start thinking of themselves more in that sort of not necessarily global context all the time, but in a regional context as opposed to simply in competition with the iranians if you know what i mean. Focused on promoting their own prosperity and their own resilience is against the threats that they face. Yes, a bunch of questions here. Dan pollock, from the finest organization in america. You mentioned that the crown prince is engaged in experiments. Can you give us an idea, if its not indelicate to say so, having just been hosted by them, about some of the results of the failure of his experiment. What happens in saudi arabia, given the Strategic Imperatives being the same for them, if there is a reaction to everything hes doing, i imagine less involvement in yemen but i dont understand that they have options there. Can you spell out what a post crown prince failure might look like for american policy in the region and what the fallout might be . What types of people would be in charge . Would it be a reaction to reempower the extremists or a return to saudi support for a more extremist type behavior . Thanks. Look, thats a hypothetical about a hypothetical. We all came away with the sense that theres enormous risk in doing this and a greater risk in not doing this. The real trick is the speed of change. You need to go fast enough to maintain the support of your people but not so fast that you that the system breaks. It is not easy to find that right balance of speed. I have no doubt that there are times when they wont find that right balance and things will look dicier than at other moments. But to try to predict, you know, what the country looks like when the current process of change which is at an early stage fails i dont think its a useful exercise. I will leave it at that. I might say one more thing about it, one of the things we came away from this visit with is the belief that social change and so forth is not just a project. You saw it in a lot of different quarters in society. There was a lot of enthusiasm for it. I dont think that that element of changing saudi arabia just rests on the shoulders of one guy. It would be hard for any other leader to deny in a sense, given the youth of the saudi population and their sort of desire, apparently, to see this kind of change. Economically a think we can speculate more clearly as to what the stakes are for saudi arabia. They are quite high. They have a growing population. They have had some real fiscal pressures in recent years and they need to make the kinds of changes they are making and if they dont, if they are not serious about them, i think they will face real severe economic consequences. Thats why i think we do need to support, as the United States government, the types of economic changes that they have in mind because without them i worry about whether saudi arabia will continue to have this stability or the Economic Resiliency that they have had in the past which has been a pillar of american policy in the region. I would add, if you are talking on the economic front, from what mike said, from vision 2030 there is attended see to want to look at the end mark they laid out and say they are not meeting them. There is a potential to look at this and say they are not meeting these but this has been said before, if they do 50 of what they say theyre going to do it will come along way in addressing these longerterm issues, economically. What we heard, with a real frankness, i felt like, the interlocutors are very candidate candid that they would not meet these deadlines. They been told to slow down on these things and they have and they are making Real Progress in terms of transparency and are not following the objectives out , they are just delaying them by a few years. It was an overly ambitious plan from the get go. Thank you for your presentation and congratulations. Could you talk about the u. S. Giving support to saudi arabia for the Economic Reforms that they are trying to make, and yet there is a sense, at least i sense, a lot of derision and cynicism, bordering on hostility, towards saudi arabia. Bs iscularly towards what n trying to do and what the saudis are trying to do to bring change about. If my reading is correct, how is that going to affect the ability of the u. S. To support the saudis in their program of reform . First of all, do you agree that there is a lot of cynicism and hostility . I mean, the comments, when the press talked about the purchase of the leonardo was so clearly hostile. I wonder how that impacts the ability of the u. S. To help the saudis. Thank you. Look, there is no doubt that the issue of what was the term . Profligate spending, it is a serious cast of a shadow over this. Certainly in the sense of perception. I have been the i have not the foggiest idea what is truth in fiction here, can be perfectly candid, but the perception is out there and in many respects is all that matters. Do i think that the leadership of the country needs to be a single mind and single purpose on this, and not let other things like the perception of profligate spending getting in the way of anticorruption or retrenchment or economic reform programs . Absolutely. This will have an impact on how, you know, public opinion, which does exist, even if it is measured differently than outside saudi arabia but public , opinion exists as to how to support these efforts and it will have an impact, for sure. If i were asked my advice . Absolutely, i would say get out of the profligate spending business and focus solely on the anticorruption effort. To the extent that my advice matters. I can say, and again, maybe its just the people we met, its always that way, but we met a fairly broad section of young people. You are talking about here. Yes, theres no doubt in the skepticism. On the frontlashed page of the New York Times and a matter of weeks. When you speak to actual young saudis, especially young saudi women, but not only them, the desire for this opportunity to not be missed, you get a sense that this is real. So, you get both at the same time. This is part of the complexity. I wish it were more simple but it is just a reality. I would add one thing. We heard similar questions from the saudis and saudi arabia. It has been, by choice, a relatively closed place for a very long time and one of the under appreciated elements of this vision 2030 plan is changing that, opening up the country a bit to tourism. To the world, in a sense. I think that can only help in this regard. Its true that the caricature you might have in your mind, especially of younger saudis, doesnt match the reality that you confront on the streets. I think that the burden of changing the perception, yes, it maybe a bit on us, those who purport to explain the middle east to those in our own country, but also to the saudis, to be open to the world into let people come see for themselves. David, and then over here in the middle. Thank you. David weinberg, antidefamation league. I wanted to ask about something that really hasnt come up a lot here. Which is issues of human rights and rule of law. In saudi arabia, their National Transportation plan has goals. Even the Justice Ministry will be undergoing some degree of shift, but i was wondering to what extent these sorts of issues were raised by the delegation or came up with your official interlocutors in saudi arabia. And whether the very exciting things that these countries are doing in terms of combating extremism at the moment are really taking the forum and whether that makes sense. Perhaps it may. K on can cap on tac another question, i would be curious to know whether hamas came up at all. You mentioned hezbollah as a big focus of conversation but ive always been fascinated to know how these countries are thinking about hamas, given that they dont list him as a terrorist group and are not strategically opposed. Is a very interesting effort in gaza, so how does that affect their approach to hamas, at all . Thank you, david. There were a couple of key messages that we heard from across top saudi interlocutors that we spoke to. One of them is that the key, most important domestic concern right now is extremism. That is something that we need to be careful about, as you know well. Because when the saudis talk about extremists and terrorists, they have a much broader view and broader interpretation of that term. There are groups and individuals who they believe fall in that category we, as americans, dont see it that way. I think this is something we need to be cognizant of when lflking with golf gu partners about their counter Extremism Campaign and other counterterrorism campaigns. That important thing being said, i came away with the impression that there is a palpable change in the way that the saudis are pursuing real counterterrorist efforts. Counterterrorist efforts as we as we define them against isis and al qaeda. We came away hearing about a widening of the scope of their counterterrorist campaign. The deepening of the scope of their counterterrorist campaigns to include religious institutions, their education systems, a Global Campaign to promote tolerance and coexistence that is led by the Muslim World League. What is essentially a high Tech Startup Company involved in trying to understand and encounter extremist messaging. Some of these things the saudis have been doing for years, but our trip gave us the sense and frankly the things we have been hearing from them over the last few months have given us the sense that there is a new level of commitment and a new determination to fight the terrorist threat whenever it when it comes to terrorists that we and the saudis agree on. The isis and al qaeda threats. Again, i think that your concern about the difference between who americans define as extremists and to saudis defined as extremist, as extremist, is legitimate. We heard from a top saudi official that there is a difference, he essentially acknowledged a difference in understanding of different freedoms between the americans and the saudis and i think thats very much relevant. I would just add that in terms of rule of law, the one time that i can recall that this came up very clearly was when we inquired about the anticorruption efforts. The response that we got from a senior saudi official there was to cite a statement from the attorney general about how those cases of individuals who had been detained would be referred to for prosecution, this was within the discussion of a discussion about Investor Confidence and i thought it was important to recognize that there might be some negative impact on Investor Confidence if it continues to be viewed as something that is being done in an extrajudicial fashion. I dont recall a specific discussion of hamas. I may have missed it. Did it come up . I dont recall that. I didnt get the sense in either place that there was any sort of love lost for any of these types of groups. The message they wanted to send was really not sort of focused on that topic at all. I didnt hear any supportive messages. The overall topic, as he said, was not broached that much. Yes . Thanks, rob. I wanted to pick up on catherines point here from just a second ago on Investor Confidence. Im from the u. S. Chamber. On the Business Confidence question, catherine, rob, or anyone, just before the roundup, to quote from the movie casablanca, of the unusual suspects, there was doubt those davos in the desert. Thousands of Business Executives present with a very optimistic view put on that in terms of Business Expectations Going Forward. And then this shortterm fall as a result of the roundup. What did you hear from your interlocutors in terms of the impact of that sudden announcement and reactions to wear Business Investment is where Business Investment is going at this point, given the details of the announcement . Just a word on this, but we asked this question almost word for word to senior saudi officials. The response that we got was namely, how could you have all of these investors here one day and then the next day, throw all of these businessmen in the ritzcarlton the next week. Doesnt that send the wrong message to the investors . The response was that investors will see in the midto longterm that this is very good for investing. That they will not any longer have to pay off the middlemen anymore. That the system will be more efficient. Is there a nearterm impact . Perhaps. The view was very clearly that investors will see that once the dust settles, it will be a better investment environment. I dont have much to add from what rob said. I think that is exactly it. Its going to create uncertainty in the near term. Ive had people tell me and response to this idea that you will cut out the middleman that there was some value added to that. When you had to have a local partner, you had a capital infusion, someone with the knowhow and the access. What they are trying to do is make a big change that will take some time to get used to. I think that rob cited in his remarks some of the percentages that were shared in terms of how much they felt they were losing to corruption. They felt that this was a worthwhile time to do it. And endeavored to undertake it. Yes, in the back . Thank you. I have two questions. First, regarding the recent conflict between leadership, would you consider that, given their overall approach to the brotherhood, to be purely a tactical move . Given the constraints and the larger strategic shift in the way it has been approached politically . The second one, as it refers to saudi arabia and how they view, in a sense, have they given you the vision of what kind of Foreign Policy they engage . With what kind of iranian interaction would they be willing to live with . And do you think this can only be achieved through regime change in iran . Uae, islam, yemen. On your question about yemen, i think that, so, i think theres two issues there. In the short term, there is a recognition that yemen will demand some sort of political solution. Obviously theres a heavy military effort underway but there is also a desire to tie it to a political solution that requires dealing with the various parties on the ground. At the same time, a longterm and clear desire to make sure that the government of yemen is a secular government. Not islamist or proiranian. What we missed overall was any sense for how to get from here to there. There was a realism that the forces are really quite well entrenched in the places they control. Defeating them is certainly a tall order. Especially when the primary instrument is airpower. On the question about iran, look, i think that we didnt have such an explicit conversation that i can recall about engagement between the two sides. At the same time, there is a history of it. Most of the concerns that we heard were concrete about what baran is doing, whether it is in lebanon, yemen, and so forth. What you see from the gulf states is a desire to push back and get the United States to cooperate. On pushing back against it. But not necessarily with an aimed towards regime change. The question about obsession with iran came up. I think thats the wrong term. I think there are very concrete and, frankly, wellfounded concerns about what iran is doing. But nothing about how you shouldnt engage or you should overthrow. Not sort of thing not that sort of thing. More practical in their focus. Anything else . I agree with mike. I think the uae recent engagement is a reflection of lack of options for moving forward in yemen and not a strategic shift on the part of the emirateies. We have been hearing for years that the brotherhood is the root of a terrorist problem and this is their perspective on the challenge. Other questions . Yes . In the back . Thank you for all the valuable insights you have provided today. Im from the arabia foundation. Omand inclusion on the border, it is believed to be one point at which they are believed to getting access to weapons and supplies. Of course visavis the nuclear negotiations, they have charted a quasiindependent policy. What kind of insight did you have on that leg of the trip . When it comes to more assertive policy, is there concern there . It is also believed to be a country on the edge of transition, so anything you can say about that. I think we heard what we expected. Which was a very different attitude towards iran and regional conflicts then you get in abu dhabi. Frankly, we didnt have an explicit conversation about the overland route, but in the context of discussions about yemen since then, including from the Trump Administration, i would frankly expect that to be a greater point in our engagement with them and the regional engagements in yemen, engagements about yemen, more as lets focus a bit more on interdictions. Especially in light of the nikki haley comments. The question about succession is on the minds of people, but i cant say we had detailed discussions about it. The omanis certainly engagement as opposed to what we heard in riyadh and i and abu dhabi. As much of anything its a result of who they are, where they are located, put their what their history is and their checkered relations with their own neighbors. So, this was not surprising. It was actually quite true to form and interesting to see and hear in the flesh, but it was no surprise to hear this from the officials there. I would add that on the question of lethal aid, one of the questions i took away was an open question at the end of the strip, in speaking with various interlocutors, there seemed to no consensus in how to get at that. Thats one of the areas that the u. S. And the countries that we visited will have to come to some sort of agreement on the nature of the problem in order to tackle some of those humanitarian issues. In closing, im sure that if the 50 or some odd other members of the delegation were here, they would of course endorse the thrust of what you heard from our panel, but they would all have their own individual stories. Stories of engaging with local people in stores and shops and restaurants. That sort of thing. Stories about when we visited, for example, the saudi radical Rehabilitation Center in riyadh, meeting with half of a dozen guantanamo alumni, talking with them about their experience, both in guantanamo and in the Rehabilitation Center in riyadh. Experiences of meeting multiple crown princes and multiple capitals, something one often doesnt get a chance to do and how they were welcomed on a personal level. I wish that they were here to offer their human experiences to you because all you get up here are the four professional analysts giving our somewhat jaundiced experiences. So, on behalf of all of them and behalf of all of us, thank you very much for being here this morning. To hear our report from the trip to saudi arabia, oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Thank you. [applause] [captioning performed [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Announcer cspans washington journal, live every day with news and policy issues that impact you. Coming up this morning, a discussion of the republican tax reform bill with Bloomberg Tax reporter and reuters correspondent amanda becker. Join the discussion. Senate committees reconcile the differences between the two republican tax plans must week. The house begins debate today. On the measure. Later, the senate may begin 10 hours of debate on the bill. Watch house coverage on cspan and live Senate Coverage on cspan2. Also today, the House Administration Committee Considers a bill that would require each member, of us are, and employee of the house of representatives to complete a responsibilities Training Program every session of congress. Live coverage beginning at 12 15 p. M. On cspan3. You can also follow on cspan3 and on the free cspan radio app app. Legislation. Live coverage beginning at 3 00 p. M. Eastern on cspan3. He can also follow live on cspan. Org and on the free cspan radio app. Sunday, on cspans Heritage Foundation distinguished fellow lee edwards chronicles his 60year and involvement in the conservative movement. I met joe mccarthy through my father who was something of a confidant to him. He was a hail fellow well met. He liked to party. He liked i drink or two. As always you did not talk about communism you cannot ask for a more fun person to be with. But who is very serious about that and he was also someone who did not take advice very well in t consequently said things and even did things that hurt the cause to communism for some time. Announcer q a sunday night at 8 00 p. M. Eastern on