Mr. Morath happy to be here. Host lets start with the headline from the wall street journal today the u. S. Economy , is hitting milestones not seen in more than a decade, marked by a robust hiring that has led to lowered unemployment and sustained pickup and output, Labor Department data shows nonfarm payrolls a seasonally adjusted record 86 straight months of expansion. It also says the Unemployment Rate is down to 4. 1 , down for two straight months holding at a 17year low. What is the reason for some of these positive figures . Mr. Morath we have been in a long stretch of economic expansion. We have been growing fairly consistently in this country since the middle of 2009, so we are seeing that starting to pay off for more and more americans. Businesses are seeing demands for their products and services, and they need workers to meet that demand. Host are there any surprises in this report so far . Is the economy over performing . Mr. Morath i think it is performing pretty close to its peak capacity, which is what a lot of economists are saying. The one downside would be the wages figure. We are not seeing the same type of pickup and wages that we have seen in previous times when the Unemployment Rate has been near 4 . Host what does this say about the outlook . What can we expect to come ahead . Can we expect to see this continual uptick . Could there be Something Else in the future . Mr. Morath as far as the jobs market, i would expect to see a bit of a cooling. Some employers are saying it is difficult to find workers. That might challenge them to continue to hire at a strong clip of more than 200,000 per month. I could see job growth slowing. The projections for Economic Growth are to continue or perhaps strengthen a bit heading into next year. Host we talking with eric morath of the wall street journal about the november economic numbers. We have a special line for the segment. If you are unemployed and looking for a job, you can call 202 7488000. If you are unemployed and you have stopped looking, you can call 202 7488001. If you are employed, you can call 202 7488002. And all others, 202 7488003. So i want to talk a little bit more about what the unemployment numbers themselves, how is that an indicator of the strength of the economy, and how does that differ from other numbers . Mr. Morath the important thing with the Unemployment Rate is it shows the share of americans that are actively looking for work but cannot find a job. When we are in a recession, the number gets quite elevated. It could be one in 10 americans say i want work, i am looking and applying, but cannot land anything. Now were are down to about 4 . That means most americans that would like a job have one. That is a really positive sign for income. It means families are receiving income. They can spend it on goods and services and that creates a virtual cycle. How important is the 4. 1 percent, versus the rate it is dropping . The lowering of the Unemployment Rate is slowing down significantly. There is a floor to the Unemployment Rate. It really cannot get to zero. Therell there are always people who have quit jobs or lost jobs and are looking for work. That is a natural turn for the economy. They say it is natural. What i would say though, look underneath the numbers. When we were in the depths of the reception recession and pulling out of that, the people by and large have been unemployed for a long time. That is troublesome because it is hard to get a job when you have been out of work for six months or more. Especially hard to get a similarly paying job. The good news now is that has shrunk, it is still a bit elevated, but a lot of the people that are unemployed at this point are people that recently either lost or quit a job and they are looking for new work. That is generally considered a positive sign of the economy. Host in the New York Times today, your competitor paper, a slightly different spin there are fears that the economy could overheat. The strength could also pose challenges particularly in light , of the 1. 5 trillion in tax cuts that congress could pass as early as this month. Economists expect the tax bill to provide at least a modest lift to the economy. They are not sure that is a good idea with unemployment so low and the economy fundamentally healthy, a tax cut could lead the economy to grow too quickly, pushing up inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to raise Interest Rates faster than planned. Is this a valid fear . Mr. Morath sure. It is something a number of economists we spoke to express to the same concerns. Tax cuts would be a stimulus to the u. S. Economy. When the economy is not doing so well, that type of stimulus can help lower the Unemployment Rate. But as i just talked about, it is pretty difficult to envision the Unemployment Rate going significantly lower from where it is now. If we are pushing additional funds into the economy in the form of a 1. 5 trillion tax cut, there is a risk that that could cause inflation, and that could cause the Federal Reserve to act. That could dampen some of the stimulus that would have otherwise sunk on this economy. Potentially, things are running pretty much as good as the machine can run. There are many economist concerned about overheating. Host elliott is calling from lakeland, florida. Good morning. Caller good morning. I was going to ask mr. Morath have you thought about trumps deregulation coal, drilling in the arctic how has that affected job growth . I will take my answer off the air. Mr. Morath that is an excellent question we hear that a lot. , the coal and mining industry, which includes oil and gas extraction as well, has had a good year. Employment in that sector has gone up, and some certainly credit the president s policies for that, for being more friendly toward that industry. Another factor is falling oil prices. Jobs in those industries fell in recent years, alongside lowering of oil prices, it was less profitable for the industry, and anyone who has filled up their gas tanks may have noticed prices are a little bit higher than they were a year ago. That might support more profits in the industry and therefore more jobs in the industry. Mr. Morath we are joined by eric morath, the economy report reporter for the wall street journal. He is also a former reporter for dow jones newswire. He also covered detroit, the Auto Industry in detroit, for several years. A home state that we share. Were talking about the latest jobs numbers. Again, if you are unemployed and looking, 202 7488000. If you are unemployed and he and you have stopped looking, 202 7488001. If you are employed, 202 7488002. All others can call 202 7488003. On the opinion page of the wall street journal, it digs into the causes of what the uptick are. It starts out by saying, could it be that secular stagnation is not inevitable and that better policies make a growth difference . It goes on to say, why has the economy improved . Faster growth has made Central Banks continue to be accommodating by any historical measure. It says the biggest change has been the u. S. Economic policy, notably the trump administrations deregulatory effort and the boost they have given business confidence. Barack obamas economist dismissed it as a minor concern. But the cost of compliance were was real and added to the uncertainty. Do you agree with that . Mr. Morath there is certainly a debate going on. I do not think you can discount the fact that we are in a Global Economy that has picked up. We have seen the best Growth Numbers in a decade out of europe. Japan is on a modest streak of growth. The Global Economy is doing better, and that is certainly aiding the u. S. Economy as well. As the piece mentioned, the policies from Central Banks have helped. I feel like the trump administration, that would be one element of a number of different factors that are affecting the economy. Mr. Morath dan is calling from new york on our employed line. Good morning, dan. Caller hi. We talk a lot about the rate of unemployment. Youre are probably already talking about how that is measured versus underemployed and people who have stopped looking. I think the rate of employment versus inflation, what could be said about having full employment, and is it something that is just too scary for the system to contemplate, that people would all be employed at reasonable wages that would help them survive . Mr. Morath the wage question is a little bit of a quandary that , we are not seeing stronger wage growth, given that the Unemployment Rate is low. There is certainly the thought that if there is more jobs and more competition for jobs, that will help push wages up. That is something we will be watching for. The other factor is, though, the u. S. Is no longer a labor market into itself. We compete with forces around the globe. Those forces put downward pressure on wages. We are also at the point where baby boomers are increasingly retired, and they were paid relatively well compared to millennials who are entering the labor force. There are a number of factors affecting wages. Certainly what a lot of economists are looking for as we move toward the concept of full employment that we will see some inflationary pressures on wages. That is what economic theory shows. There has been a question why that is not played out the last couple years. Host all right. Patricia is calling from miami. You are unemployed and looking, patricia. Caller yes, maam, good morning. I have been unemployed for two months. I am a professional chef. Here in florida, the job market is horrible. Here in florida, the job market rate paying people is horrible. They make you work your job, and also doing three jobs instead of one. I am a chef. I am a professional. They want me to wash dishes, throw out garbage, for one salary, 10. I cannot do it. I cannot do 10. The taxes are going up everything is going up. ,i dont see where it says, the market, maybe for unemployment, it is not the trump administration, it happened under obama. This has been going on for years. The numbers are not obamas numbers, they are not trumps numbers. They have nothing to do with trumps numbers. He has been in office maybe for a year. He has not done anything. He wont do anything. I predict were going to have a market crash. Inflationwe will have pretty bad. Were going to go backwards. For the comment about women, we have a president who does not encourage women in the job places. Host i want to get erics thoughts that there could be a market crash, some sort of counter reaction to the current economic surge. How valid are those fears . Mr. Morath it is certainly a true that we are in a very long recovery. It would be the exception for this expansion to carry on for years and years more. The last time the Unemployment Rate was below 4 was late 2000. A recession started three months later. I am not saying a low Unemployment Rate means a recession is coming. Probably the opposite. But it is certainly not beyond the realm of possibility that we are in late stages in this expansion and we are sort of due for a recession. Host the wall street journal put out a series of helpful charts we like charts talking about breaking down exactly what these numbers mean. On the unemployment features, it figures, it broke it down in terms of things like level of education, showing for people aged 25 and over, showing that the Unemployment Rate has dropped for everybody, but a little more precipitously for those with less than a high school education, a lot more gradual for those who are collegeeducated. What does that tell us about those in the job force . What is happening in the job force . Mr. Morath that is a very interesting and important statistic to look at. Weve seen in recent years that the Unemployment Rate for those with less education has fallen, and that is a positive sign that we are pulling everybody that wants a job into the labor market. Generally, it is easier for somebody who has a College Degree to get a job. It is more of a challenge, especially for someone who did not complete high school. The fact that the Unemployment Rate, while certainly elevated compared to their peers who went to college, suggests we are at a healthy state of the employment of the labor market. Host larry is calling from avon park, florida. You are on with eric morath. Caller thank you very much. The 4. 1 unemployment number, i believe, is deceptive due to the fact that the u6 Employment Data i would like to explain that or talk about that for a second, how that is impacting the actual Unemployment Rate. Thank you. Mr. Morath sure. I would love to talk about the u6. What the caller is referencing is there are actually six , different measurements of unemployment that the government produces. When we talk about the Unemployment Rate we are referring to one day economists call the u3. U6 is the broadest measure, that includes the people that are unemployed but also those who are stuck in parttime jobs that want fulltime jobs. It is a measure of those that are underemployed. It also includes what we call discouraged workers. If you ask them, would you like a job . They would say yes, of course i , would like a job, but they have kind of given up looking. That number was 8 this past month. That has almost doubled the Unemployment Rate. It suggests that there is a little bit more unemployment out there. Look at it historically. That number has finally reached about the level it was before the recession began. For a long time in this expansion, we had an elevated number of people that were stuck in parttime jobs or just said i am not even bothering to look because there are no jobs for me. That number has fallen. It is a sign of a really healthy labor market. Host andy is calling from kentucky. Unemployed and stopped looking. Caller i stopped looking for a job 27 years ago. I did not like the socialism that we are going into. Almost communism now. You cannot afford to pay taxes, you cannot afford your property. But Health Insurance this year will be over 2200 for my wife and i. There are so many things so destructive to the employment force out there to try to work. If you have a business or the company does not pay Health Insurance and a person is being forced to pay the penalty, that will have them stop and drop out from work. Look at all of the drug addicts that are not working and we have to pay for. The socialism stuff is for the birds. Mr. Morath the burden that americans face, whether it is healthcare costs or the cost of housing, those are some factors. Those have been going up at a faster rate than inflation. In many parts of the country, health care and housing have gone up faster than peoples wages. While a lot of people have jobs and are seeing modest increases in income, you know, i certainly hear what the caller is saying, that people are frustrated. They feel like they cannot get ahead, even if they do have a job. Host another helpful chart from the wall street journal shows a breakdown in Unemployment Rate by sex and ethnicity, race and ethnicity as well as gender. It shows that right after the recession or during the recession, it hit black men the hardest followed by black women, hispanic women, hispanic men, white women and white men at the bottom. It has decreased for everyone, precipitously. But again, black men and black women have a higher Unemployment Rate. What is the cause of that difference there . Even though it has gotten better, it still remains . Mr. Morath sure. There are a number of factors to think about. There are things that people look at in terms of education, family background, did your parents have, were able to guide you to jobs, have connections . Did you have Educational Opportunities . Oftentimes economists find a that even when you look at all those different factors, there is still a gap that shows minorities are paid less than whites, that women are paid less than men. A lot of people say that is where you would see discrimination, whether it is overt or someone kind of in the back of their mind. That is part of the explanation. It should be noted that while still elevated and frustrating we have a low Unemployment Rate , for hispanics this month, the Unemployment Rate for blacks is historically low at this point compared to where it was in the recession when it was certainly historically high. Host brian is calling from plymouth, wisconsin. You are on with eric morath. Caller hi, eric. Thank you, cspan, for taking my call. What im curious about is is what makes up the labor force . Is that everybody between the ages of, say, 18 and retirement age, or does that include everybody from infants to the elderly . I will take your answer offline. Thank you. Mr. Morath i love all these great economics questions today. The Labor Force Participation include infants, so my kids are not on there. But it is 16 years and older. That includes people, potentially, certainly people 80 years old and up there working everyday. The Labor Force Participation rate includes pretty much all adults. Now, the Labor Department deep inside these reports breaks a breaks it down a little bit further. So there is a measure of those that are 25 to 54. We call those primeaged workers. That idea is that they are probably finished with their education, probably saving for retirement. That is interesting to look at. You can see the aging in the population, a de