Designed to partially roll back Obama Administrations strategy of engaging with the people of cuba. A few months from now, cuba will undergo a historic leadership transition while reckoning with a moribund economy and a demographic challenge in a relationship with the United States that is rapidly deteriorating as a result of President Trumps policy changes and still unresolved attacks against u. S. Diplomats. In fact the diplomatic drawdown , in havana had a direct impact on this event as the suspension of Visa Services in havana prevented us from bringing a speaker from cuba to participate in todays discussion. Nevertheless, to help us make sense of what has happened and assess what the future might bring for cuba and the United States we are privileged to , welcome to the dialogue three distinguished friends and colleagues with decades of experience working on cuba. To my immediate left, Emily Mendrala is the executive director of the center for democracy in the americas. Emily served in the Obama Administration at the National Security council and at the Cuban Affairs office in the state department. Previously a Congressional Staff member on the Senate Foreign relations committee. Michael bustamante is an assistant professor of latin American History at Florida International university specializing in modern cuba, cuba americans and the caribbean. He is coeditor of a new volume. Histories of the cuban revolution. And Jorge Dominguez is a professor for the study of mexico at Harvard University and chair of the Harvard Academy for international studies. He is the author or editor of various books. Former president of the latin american studies association, and not least, a number of the interamerican dialogue. Before diving into the conversation, i would like to acknowledge our partners at the World Press Photo exhibition. For over 60 years, more than 4 Million People in 100 cities around the globe have enjoyed the work of awardwinning photographers. Today we are fortunate today to monitas new series. It is evocative and visually stunning of everyday life in cuba. You will see the cycling through, throughout the discussion today. We also want to acknowledge the support of the ford foundation. Without him this event would not have been possible. I also want to acknowledge peter hickam our colleagues who provides invaluable support to the rule of law program. Finally, if anyone from ofac is here, rest assure the coffee and donuts were not provided by with that, we will dive into the discussion. Each of the panelists will talk for about 10 minutes. Opening remarks and then we will , open it up for discussion and we have plenty of time for your questions and comments. Emily, lets start with you. Emily thanks. If you were to put u. S. Cuba relations on a line graph, if you were to plot it with engagement on the y access, it would be a jagged line for sure. We have taken two steps forward, and one step back over several decades. But, the longterm trendline is decidedly in the upward direction. This time last year, october, 2016, the Obama Administration released the sixth of six rounds of regulatory regulations governing u. S. Cuba sanctions. Each round of regulatory changes was designed to increase the flow of people, goods, and information to and from cuba. These were couched in a larger policy of engagement. Over two years, during the final two years of the Obama Administration. The u. S. And cuban governments met regularly and engaged in dialogue and a number of issues and ultimately signed almost two dozen Bilateral Agreements. These agreements touched on issues such as Law Enforcement information sharing, cooperation on health, designating sister marine protected areas. These really wideranging discussions on a number of issues. I would say this time last year, we were on a pretty steep part of the line graph in the upward direction. More than anything, those two years of rapid progress toward normalization proved that the u. S. And cuban governments can cooperate and the cooperation can bear fruit. I think that is really important. After decades of not cooperating, it was not a sure thing that this cooperation could bear fruit. In fact, if you look at the last three years, we have seen that in fact it did. This week, everyone is aware and michael just mentioned that we have had a downward tick on the line graph with the release of new regulations governing cuban sanctions. The Treasury Department and Commerce Department govern the implementation of sanctions towards cuba. They released some new rules that will in part rollback and in part change travel to cuba and the Financial Transactions with which u. S. Entities can participate in cuba. At the state department, in concert with this, released a list of 180 prohibited entities with him u. S. Persons cannot engage in direct Financial Transactions. This announcement was the fulfillment of a june announcement that President Trump made in miami where he directed departments and agencies to begin to draft these rules. We have been expecting them for some time. In fact, i would argue that the downward tick we have seen this week is not very severe. I will get into why. But, the specific changes that were announced this week with regard to travel, individuals were previously able to travel under the people to people category and now they are no longer able to do so. However, they are allowed to travel as individuals under support for the cuban people category. There is a new definition for the support for the cuban people category which allows for people to stay at private bed and breakfasts, eat at restaurants, and there is a requirement that individuals do a Little Something else to constitute a fulltime itinerary under this category. But individuals can still travel to cuba. I think that is the big take away. There is also most notably, the state departments list of 180 prohibited entities included a number of hotels where people cannot stay, a number of stores in old havana where people cannot shop, a number of Government Entities with whom u. S. Entities cannot do business. In the coming days and weeks i know it is already happened in many respects. Lawyers will be pouring over the new rules to determine the avenues of continued engagement. It is important to note that engagement can continue. A lot of the progress from the last three years has been preserved. We still have the u. S. Embassy in cuba. Cuba still has an embassy here. U. S. Travelers can still travel to cuba and enjoy a lot of the flexibility that was implemented during the Obama Administration. General licenses, for example. Oftentimes now, travelers do not need to seek specific permission from the Treasury Department to travel. They can selfcertify that their travel needs the rules governing u. S. Sanctions. That remains in place. Dialogue will continue. The u. S. And cuban governments have made clear they will continue a dialogue on areas of mutual interest. And so, it is not by any means a full reversal of the gains towards engagement we have seen in recent years. All of this comes at a time where there is considerable momentum. U. S. Travelers continue to travel to cuba. In may of this year, we already reached the mark of the number of u. S. Travelers to cuba for the entire calendar year of 2016. This comes at a time where there is congressional momentum bipartisan congressional , momentum. Representative Rick Crawford has introduced a bill to allow for the financing for the use of financing in agricultural sales. There are 44 republicans in the house on that bill. And in the senate, a bill to lift the travel ban has a 55 senator signed under the bill, and thats a majority. I think that it is important to realize that there is a path, a steady path of momentum from travelers, congress, and the private sector. Just last week we saw john deere and caterpillar sign some pretty big deals at the trade fair in havana. It demonstrates that there is there may be some negative news and rhetoric coming out of the u. S. Government, but it cannot quite put back in the bottle what was unleashed in the last two and half years. But, there are challenges. And i think we will hear more about those in a little bit from other panelists. For example, there is a leadership transition in cuba coming up in february. We do not yet know what that will bring. Also, we are operating currently at skeleton staff. The u. S. Embassy in havana and the Cuban Embassy in washington. This comes as a result of mysterious symptoms experienced by u. S. Diplomats and canadian diplomats. An Ongoing Investigation into those symptoms. The u. S. Has drawn down our diplomats from havana and it is important to understand it issued a travel warning alongside it but, it in many respects is triggered bureaucratically by the drawing down of our diplomats. The next step though that the u. S. Took to expel cuban diplomats from washington, or to request that 60 of the cuban diplomats from washington leave, seems to be a bit of a step too far, or at least a step that begs the question why in the midst of an Ongoing Investigation did the u. S. Government ask the Cuban Embassy to draw down their diplomats and to do so in a way where they reportedly handed a list of 15 specific names to the Cuban Embassy. Names that gutted the commercial section and the consular sections of the Cuban Embassy in washington. I mention and the investigation into the arguably serious symptoms experienced by our diplomats is ongoing and we do not know what it will turn out. I say that to note that what we taken a step back or are on a downward path of the line graph right now, it is not quite as bad as it could be. There are some challenges on the horizon. Michael c. that is terrific. Thanks, emily. Mike, lets go to you. Michael b. good morning. Thanks so much to the dialogue for having me and organizing this event. I was asked to focus my opening remarks on the cubanamerican community. How they, we, i should say, fit into the present picture of u. S. Cuban relations. How we are responding to being affected by the developments just mentioned. It is no secret that there are vocal voices in the community. They are very much behind the recent changes in the u. S. Cuba policy announced yesterday. It begs the question is there a constituency there that supports these efforts, or are there other voices . Let me just start with some context. For the past 20 years, the university where i work has conducted a rigorous poll every year on cubanamerican Political Attitudes and opinions. What the poll shows is there is a steady trend line of shifting cuban deaspera opinion on matters of cubanamerican policy. There is Strong Majority support in the cubanamerican community for the right of all americans to travel to the island. There is majority support for ending the embargo. But, there is particularly strong support, almost universal i would say, for the right of cubanamericans to travel to the island to see family whenever they wish. It is not surprising that of all the changes that have been implemented in u. S. Cuban relations and policy, since june, this is one that has not been touched. And i dont think that is a mistake or a coincidence. Before the Obama Administration, one of the other restrictions in place was a severe limit on the ability of cubanamericans to visit the island and see their families. The Obama Administration got rid of that early on. I think those against engagement in miami have recognized that it is a political loser for them to start telling their constituents when they can go see mom. And so, there is a key way in which the cubanamerican community is therefore not affected by some of the recent changes. There were ability to travel to the island in theory it remains free and unfettered. I think that contributes to a dynamic sometimes in which many folks in miami who are by no means single issue voters, the broader noise in cubanamerican might not register as much in so far as their own ability to go back and forth is not impacted. But, there are other clear ways in which the community is affected by recent developments. To the extent that there are less u. S. Visitors overall, a kind of rich transnational economy, a flow of people, goods and money may also be impacted. Cubanamericans that travel to the island do not only go to hug mom, they go to bring cash. On the order of several billion dollars a year. Remittances to help support their relatives on the island. But also fuels a rich transnational economy, a supply chain by suitcase for many sectors of the cuban economy and also the black market. We have to a knowledge it. I think while cuban americans can continue to travel in theory and bring all of the things that they do on airplanes that they do, if we see u. S. Airlines cutting back on flights, fewer u. S. Visitors having an impact on the Small Business sector, that might slow some of that transnational motion insofar as it is connected to the tourist sector. The most important consequence that i would argue that the cubanamerican community is going to feel is a reflection of the reduction of staff both at the u. S. Embassy in havana and the Cuban Embassy here in washington. The end of the wet foot dry foot policy in the waning days of the Obama Administration was a tough pill to swallow for the cuban deaspera in general although everyone saw it coming. It was kind of a selffulfilling prophecy. As soon as a process of normalization began, a nonnormal immigration policy visavis cubans was destined to eventually fade away. Cubans began to leave the island can really record numbers. The highest numbers we have seen in some 30 years. The attitude was if youre going to go, you have to go now and that accelerated the speed with which the wet foot dry policy came to an end. Cubans had a hard time swallowing that pill though they understood where it was coming from. What has happened now with the reduction of the staff at the u. S. Embassy, it closes yet another avenue of out migration. And travel. The number of visitors visas cubans were getting was not unsubstantial. This has left a lot of people in limbo. I am forgetting the exact stat but i think i read that the u. S. Consulate in havana had one of the largest numbers of numbers of pending visas applications. Maybe Something Like 100,000. And now, it is unclear what will happen there. The state department has said that issuing of immigrant visas will be moved to bogota, colombia, not a very practical solution given for many reasons. For reasons of cost and for reasons that cubans need a visa to get to colombia. And to get a visa to colombia they have to prove they have a certain amount in the bank. And the fact that when you apply for a visa and go for the interview, you do not get a decision right away. You might have to wait. What is a cuban supposed to do . Go back to havana and come back with another visa . This is a real setback. This will lead to sharp declines of the amount of cubans coming to the United States. This has implications for what is still an important Bilateral Agreement between the u. S. And cuban governments dating back to the 1990s. The u. S. Is supposed to issue a minimum of 20,000 travel documents for legal travel. I have a hard time trying to figure out how they will meet that mark. They have also still not made clear whether there is going to be any process for issuing visitors visas. That also slows down the transnational flow. This does have serious impacts. This is an area of political vulnerability for representatives from from miami who are defending this policy change. In miami, it is completely possible to be a member of any political party, to have voted for the current president or not, and still believe that you want to bring your sister over to come live with you. To the extent that this drags on, this will be a real problem and i think something that constituents i hope will tell their representatives about. Let me just conclude with a question and a tentative answer or set of answers. I have argued that cubanamerican opinion on matters of u. S. Policy has shifted. And yet, we still have a scenario in which the cubanamerican communitys elected representatives cobra reflect a different point of view. Why is that . The first thing i would say is there is a difference between the cubanamerican community in general, everybody, regardless of your citizenship status and those who are u. S. Citizens and have the right to vote. I have often thought that as much effort and resourcesare put into courting support for engagement in washington, i would like the folks do a ter registration drive. I think it would help the cause. As i said already, cubans are not single issue voters. It is possible to have voted for trump and not support his policy on cuba. I would say this electoral picture may be changing. 2018 will be interesting in miami. Im sure many of you know the longtime representative, ileana roslehtinen,