Information flows and there is not a lot of fact checking. Judy get my pressure up on that. I would just echo that because i think the current climate makes it so much more difficult to get your message out. And there are so many other vehicles. But i do think it is a tremendous opportunity because you can also be much more creative. And also to the Public Affairs side, i have seen more and more Public Affairs being done on the international front. That has just boomed. Frederick thank you, sarah. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you all for being with us this evening for this forum. I hope you have enjoyed hearing a little bit about the careers of these three fine Public Servants who are doing Different Things now than in bushs administration. We thank you for being here. If you would join me in thanking , our guests. [applause] [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2015] [captioning performed by national captioning institute] frederick president s bush thank you for being with us tonight. [applause] frederick and i have one more swag to do. [applause] frederick if you would, please, remain in your seats so the bushs can depart and then we ask you to join us in the foyer. Thank you very much for being with us tonight. [applause] New York Times chairman and publisher and executive editor discuss the times future in the digital age. About half of the newspaper subscriptions are solely for digital content. In major shift for an organization that begin offering digital only subscriptions just four years ago. Mr. Baquet says do was and is better because technology. Says it journalism is better because technology. Journalism is better today than it ever will because there are many more tools. I grew up in new orleans reading afternoon newspapers. I only had access to one newspaper. The same could you grows up in new orleans in a workingclass family now has access to as many newspapers as he can push a button four. Access to video, the whole world. We shouldnt get so caught up in the debates over the form and we should not get so caught up in some of the romantic aspects of journalism, which i grew up in. It will be better 10 years from now. We are in a mode of testing, learning, adapting. If you dont have the courage to try new things and grow, you are going to fail. That is just the reality of the world we are in. So i actually applaud what dean and his colleagues did, which is to increasingly say, lets put the story out when the story is ready. There are some people who are going to read it then and others will read it later in print. It is not about the device. When i say device, i mean print as well. As eu said some decades ago, we must it increasingly that means mobile. The future of the near times in the digital age. Tomorrow night, at eastern eight eastern. The Christian Science monitor held a discussion analyzing voters and issues in the 2016 president ial election. They discuss the results of the national the views of likely voters. The data indicates unmarried women, millennials and minorities represent a majority of voting eligible citizens. The event looked at the candidates and Supreme Court rulings on health care and samesex marriage. This is about an hour. Were going to let the rest of our colleagues join us in progress, as they say. Thanks for coming. Our guest this morning are stan greenberg. He founded his company 1980 after teaching at yale where he won a good nine fellowship. He has a bachelor degree and a masters from harvard. [laughter] graduated from Montgomery Blair high school. [laughter] all right. Page gardner has been a guest in our past as well. Founder and president she is here in her role as president of womens vote fun. It organizations goal is increasing the participation of unmarried women and other historically underrepresented groups. She has a high honors degree from duke. Now onto the ever popular process portion of our program. I did much better with this before my stroke. Just kidding. No live blogging or tweeting. None of any kind while the breakfast is underway, to give us time to listen to what our guests say. To help you we will email several pictures of the session. As regular attendees know, if you would like to ask a question, send me a nonthreatening signal. We will start out making elves of opening comments. The opening remarks will be somewhat longer than usual. Thanks again for doing this. Page thank you for letting us share our research here. We are here to talk about, in part, the rising american electorate. Millennials, people of color and unmarried, particularly unmarried women, and they will be central to 2016 and the election cycle upcoming. They are the majority of people who can vote. In the past, they have not been the majority of people who do vote. In 2016, for the first time, they will be the majority of people who can vote. The new american majority will set the new american agenda and this Research Points that out. In addition to the horse race in terms of congressional candidates, we see three under flying. Women and family issues, and an overall agenda race. Enthusiasm and one of the challenges presented to us as the rising american electorate looks to 2016, they are less enthusiastic. 40 scored 10 on a sliding scale of 110. Very interested, versus those who score that is a challenge. The women and issues agenda, this will be one way to make sure the rise of the american electorate becomes more enthusiastic. Paid sick, equal pay, affordable childcare. These kinds of issues begin to excite particularly unmarried women and get them more enthusiastic. Finally, there is a broader agenda we will discuss today including things like college affordability, infrastructure, and jobs. Its broader agenda combined with elements of reform one is government reform. Is the government working for you . The other is money and politics reform. You have got two pieces of the reform agenda central to combining with an Overall Economic agenda. As we go into the race, we see the horse figures from the horse race, and we also seeing these underlying agenda items. Stan thank you very much. Thank you to the monitor for the long tradition of inviting us to share in real time. Everything is published. You can have access to all questions, it is all part of it. One of the things page has been great about is believing transparency added to the credibility of it. A lot of polls where you struggle. This is not one of those polls. This is completed before last week. We assume the president s standing will rise. Even in this poll, it rises. We are focused on the much Bigger Picture here. This is an electorate in which the republican brand has become so toxic, led by the leaders of congress purity will see they hit their low low point. That combined with a cultural shift reflected in other polls in terms of the number of people who call themselves conservative in the country. It is producing an electorate courtesy big margins for democrats and bigger margins congressionally, bigger than we have had before and in some time. There is a huge Enthusiasm Gap in the poll. That is stunning in degreen what happened, even though we do not expect to happen what happened in 2014, there is no doubt republicans are engaged in fighting trends in the country that engage them, that is still evident in this poll. You will see the results in here. When you do focus groups, from the political klass come along with workingclass voters generally, you will see the Political Class operating its own interests, dominated by money, gridlock, which we believe significantly contributes to the sense the country is on the wrong track, pessimism, that sets up, that tilts us back toward the republicans, despite being poor about. The third poll confirming a trend we have just not taken that is that the democrat progressives get hurt when reform of government and politics is central to the message. There is a significant shift in enthusiasm amongst unmarried women, white and unmarried women, that comes as a consequence of an agenda, a very broad agenda with activist government combined with going after money and politics and making government worth it for people who are struggling. We do not view it we do not believe progressives should be cautious in changing government. They will not win unless they voted for change. Voting for change also means changing the way government operates. Let me just highlight some of that with a few graphs. I will not present all of these. You have the full set. If you go to grass seven, this is a line where we track the parties. At the bottom right, you can see the term for republicans in congress, it is the change that is the biggest in this poll. We look at the favorability thermometer ratings from barack obama, to Hillary Clinton, to the Republican Party, minus nine, to the republican congress, then you get to the leaders, john boehner and mitch mcconnell. Who have staggering numbers in terms of how negative the perceptions are. Slide nine, you can see it is the Second Lowest point since we have pulled, the lowest point for mcconnell. They are clearly driving the republican brand. Negative territory, which is setting up congressionally. When you look at focused strips, you can see it is a combination of gridlock for the wealthy. Not a huge change in the perception that the Republican Party is up for sale, that money is playing a huge part of that that permeates congress, both great rock and who therefore. The other thing going on is hold back from conservatives. You look at graph 11 and you see that red is the percentage who identify as conservative. It is now at 35 in our poll. Liberals have moved up steadily even through 2014. You have seen a steady trend. After 2014, driven both by the president ial campaign and by congress. You can see our thermometer tracking for prolife groups undocumented immigrants, all that we track, everyone of them is on a more level trend than they have seen in other polls. These choices are taking place in that context. This is obamacare before the Supreme Court decision. We have watched a slow the rise in its standing. It is the first pull we have had in which the negatives and positives are almost equal after it has been sharply negative i a lot by a lot. Told range of things appear to be moving in a way that is creating a fairly positive environment. You then have an election in which 16 were Hillary Clinton lead is stable from our poll. Impressive given you will see her personal ratings have gotten more negative but it has not translated into a vote. What defines her position is overwhelming support amongst married women unmarried women and minority voters, secular voters. Democratic voters are voting for her in big numbers. Keep in mind, they will be 55 of the electorate in 2016. In a president ial electorate. If you include the people on top of that, youre talking about 63 of the electorate. When you talk about these kinds of numbers with groups forming a big majority of the electric, it is possible to win unless you have an enthusiasm problem that i will talk about. Past that, you can look at the actual votes. The most important thing to look at is the challenge, which is the enthusiasm measure when you are interested in what is happening. You see a huge gap from democrats and republicans. Seniors are very high. Two thirds, giving the highest ratings participation paired you go down to minority voters unmarried women, 46 , and millennials a 35 . That base of the Democratic Party begins quite negatively. The issue is going to be how you get them engaged. You look at 25 and you can see some of the focused Group Results on how much politics have dominated by money, how distant it is for average people. I will let you read this quote. There is a reason why, even though theyre giving democrats big numbers, the lack of enthusiasm is grounded in an analysis the way the political system operates. You can look at whether the country is in the right direction or not, unmarried women are 55 the wrong track. A democratic president. Voting in large numbers for democrats to succeed. Nonetheless think the country is in trouble or unmarried women are. 25 of the electorate and will be for sure. And they high proportion of democrats. Them having those attitudes is quite critical. How do you change that is move the agenda. A combination of taking on the way politics happens and taking on the way government operates in who the Government Works for. At the beginning of any subject, they start with talking about they think this is the money they believe politicians are lining their pockets. We tested and rotated whether you began with reform first you are on page 30 stan 33. You can see the huge report, and all these agenda items have gotten bigger and bigger. Making sure working with them to get equal pay same as worth, and the company starts opening up opportunities to women of all levels. Dont raise the entire the retirement age, seniors depend on checks to survive. Each one of these are bigger. You can see in 34 that the ones who drive the vote and the agenda or favor democrats on the economy are dealing with work and family issues, dealing with pay. These policies are 10 points stronger than all republican there is a huge difference between the parties. And then on 38, you can see two pieces that open up the political process. Transparency on money and limits on donations, empowering small donations, what is interesting because people have always use these things as not things really people vote on, we put them into the lists on the other issues on the agenda, they are in the middle or the upper part attacking the way politics are done. The last thing on page 40 is the form of government. It is probably a little bit stronger than things that get subsidies for the rich out of what theyre doing. They are strong for unmarried women. I will go to the end of the deck, 45. What you see, and again, here we are looking at your level of enthusiasm. You see at the end of this, you push up a significant push up on the agenda and it is more for democrats than for republicans as the agenda moves toward greater enthusiasm. And it is greater for the women. Let me stop there. Im happy to go through any part of this. Given the structural advantages, which seem to have grown, they will translate, but whether they are deep enough and broad enough, and also bring the congressional along, requires looking at this in a much more fundamental way then bringing the agendas that address reform and policy. Unmarried women and the unmarried electorate, enabling you to win at a big enough level to really affect. Let me ask one or two dozen then we go around the table. Given what you have just said, this might not the this would be a Better Climate for Bernie Sanders van for Hillary Clinton, right . [laughter] stan no. Why not . Stan she did make, before this, she did make one of her key pillars of her election dealing with Campaign Money and raise the issue of the constitutional amendment in the context of money. It will be interesting to see how this plays down in terms of the story and the poet in the post on money in the bush world. I think there will be a broad sense of that is the way politics work. I think that will push for it teeing Even Stronger in advocacy on going after money and going after the way Government Works. You can i ask another question mark i was struck by the New York Times piece a week ago now about election polling in near crisis and they cited an increasing number of homes that only have cell phones, willing to answer surveys likely voters, and the result is pollsters will be less reliable and may not even know when they are off pace. I thought, given your long experience, would let you say whether you agree with that . Stan they set up question . This being the only poll that you could trust, and the reason, i am not just saying that, the reason is 60 on cell phones. Stan right. And also, we are the only ones in a national poll. We are only dealing with people who voted in the prior president ial or they have a very high press to start with, they are voters. Were not trying to guess. These are voters, probably two thirds or 70 of the people we are interviewing have voted in a prior president ial election. 6 cell phones, that is expensive. Our assessment of the numbers does prove they are right. Fortunately, people who support this i did not mean it as an attack on you. But for the industry as a whole, given that we are coming into a heavy polling era, should voters and news consumers be more concerned . Stan no. Some of the news organizations we work for, we do bipartisan polls. An increasing number of those. The l. A. Times poll is by far the most accurate. They had serious samples off the voter files, hispanic representation. All of them are moving to not cell phones, but internet and webbased surveys, because the cost is so great. I think our challenge will be even greater. I think our problem is not the landline problem. Because of the cost of dealing with cell phones, the alternative they are moving to is doing web service. We have no experience with it. We polled for the labour party. In my past pulling for the labour party, this time, the labour party only paid for. We had a poll that did show the election getting closer. It turned out to be right. It also turned out there was not any real difference between the web based polls in the British Elections in the ones that were done by regular phone samples. I think we are in the middle of which country. My experience in the u. S. Is the databases are not as strong in the u. S. As in britain. We will go to to start. Hillary lost women to obama in 17 states or 17 contests, i should say, and did less well among unmarried women. She has always had a problem generally, attracting unmarried women in the election. How do you overcome that now . How do she overcome that now . Stan we do not pull in the primaries. I would be surprised if she did less well than obama. Given the high proportion of africanamericans who are unma