Introduction To end the COVID-19 pandemic, the WHO set a goal in 2021 to fully vaccinate 70% of the global population by mid-2022. We projected the COVID-19 vaccination trajectory in 52 African countries and compared the projected to the ‘actual’ or ‘observed’ coverage as of December 2022. We also estimated the required vaccination speed needed to have attained the WHO 70% coverage target by December 2022.
Methods We obtained publicly available, country-reported daily COVID-19 vaccination data, covering the initial 9 months following the deployment of vaccines. We used a deterministic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-type model and fit the model to the number of COVID-19 cases and vaccination coverage in each African country using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach within a Bayesian framework.
Findings Only nine of the 52 African countries (Tunisia, Cabo Verde, Lesotho, Mozambique, Rwanda, Seychelles, Morocco, Botswana and Mauritius) were on track to achieve full COVID-19 vaccination coverage rates ranging from 72% to 97% by the end of December 2022, based on their progress after 9 months of vaccine deployment. Of the 52 countries, 26 (50%) achieved ‘actual’ or ‘observed’ vaccination coverage rates within ±10 percentage points of their projected vaccination coverage. Among the countries projected to achieve <30% by December 2022, nine of them (Chad, Niger, Nigeria, South Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, Zambia, Sierra Leone and Côte d’Ivoire) achieved a higher observed coverage than the projected coverage, ranging from 12.3 percentage points in South Sudan to 35.7 percentage points above the projected coverage in Tanzania. Among the 52 countries, 83% (43 out of 52) needed to at least double their vaccination trajectory after 9 months of deployment to reach the 70% target by December 2022.
Conclusion Our findings can guide countries in planning strategies for future global health emergencies and learning from each other, especially those that exceeded expectations and made significant progress towards the WHO’s 2022 COVID-19 vaccination target despite projected poor coverage rates.
Data are available in a public, open access repository.