Transcripts For CNN Fareed Zakaria GPS 20241007 : comparemel

Dash. Com and can save. I Hanako Montgomery in tokyo, and this is cnn square. Welcome to All Of You in the United States and around the world. Im Fareed Zakaria coming to you live world waits to see if the middle East Crisis becomes even further inflame ill talk to a former top israeli Intelligence Official whose area of expertise is iran and a longtime Foreign Correspondent he joins us live from the bombarded City Of Beirut country at the heart of this conflict. Israel will bring you two very different views on it from two important Thinkers Bernard Henri Levy And Tallahassee coats israels recent campaign against hezbollah will go down as one of the most brilliant tactical successes in warfare, or triumph of great intelligence and military execution but it also highlights a trend that the Surprise Attack of October 7 might have obscured israel is now the most powerful Military Actor in The Middle East, the Regions Superpower 12 years ago, i pointed out that the decades old Balance Of Power in The Middle East had been upended the Jewish State used to be david up against the regions goliaths syria, iraq, and egypt but all those three countries are now shadows of their former selves. Bashar Al Assad rules over a battered rump, syria, iraq is dysfunctional, internally divided and mired and Corruption Egypt doesnt Slow Motion economic collapse under the tight control of a dictator who jails islamic militants. And its probably delighted to see israel take the battle to them. In 2010 in a comprehensive examination, the arab Israeli Military Balance Anthony Court Isman And Aram know lucian detail how israel had leaped ahead of its neighbors on virtually every dimension of effective Military Strength in 2014, Business Insider asked experts to help rank the regions Military Powers and concluded that tiny israel was the clear Number One over the last decade, the gap has enlarged as israel has continued to boom economically. And as americas billions of dollars of Military Aid have added up consider the difference between israel and iran. Iran has almost ten times the population of israel or larger active Duty Army and more Battle Tanks and other equipment but israels Military Budget Last Year was more than double that of iran. That doesnt take into account israels huge qualitative edge. While iran has almost 40,000 soldiers in its Air Force, reuters reports that it has just a few dozen working strike aircraft. Many of them aging american in planes or russian equipment that is decidedly second rate meanwhile, israel has hundreds of the most Advanced Western fighter jets manned by a highly trained and wellequipped Air Force a few months ago, Irans President and Foreign Minister died in an accident while riding an old Vietnam War Era american bell helicopter. A model for which they lacked spare parts and proper maintenance if thats the state of Military Hardware being used for the countrys precedent. Imagine what the average iranian soldier is using Israel Strategic Environment has also been transformed. Were once the most powerful arab states where its Enemies Today theyre its friends, Business Insider ranks as number three and number four on its list of Military Powers. Saudi arabia and the uae, De Facto allies of israel and of course, israel is the only country in The Middle East with a powerful nuclear force some weapons reportedly housed in submarines, which gives it maximum effectiveness as a deterrent you might not have been as aware of these realities because for the last two decades, Benjamin Netanyahu has been on a campaign to portray iran as 20 feet tall which of course then requires israel to adopt hardline policies on all fronts in speeches, press conferences, and interviews, he has been relentless on the mortal threat that iran poses to israel one that has in his view been growing every year in fact, his obsession with iran might have lulled israel into taking its eye off the threat posed by hamas beyond netanyahu, many in the israeli government believed that hezbollah was a fearsome adversary one they tangled with for years. And that could claim to have driven israel out of lebanon in the past but the reality is that like iran, hezbollah has also been weakened by decades of sanctions. And some members have surely fallen prey to corruption. While we dont know the details in this case usually a foreign Intelligence Service can penetrate an organization only when its members have lost faith in their mission and can be he easily bribed the lesson here is one that americans have also needed to learn over the decades the enemy is rarely as strong as you fear as with the soviet Union And Saddam Husseins Iraq and alqaeda americas adversaries had significant weaknesses that Washington Mist iran is a country that has lived for more than four decades under crippling sanctions. And a dysfunctional regime. And while it could lash out if it felt it had no option of face regime and isolation it is no match for israel. The danger for israel is the same as for the United States in recent decades. Its Military Superiority can lead to stunning tactical victories america topple the taliban in mere months in 2001 and it took just three weeks to get to baghdad and take the iraqi capital. But those brilliant tactical winds ended up becoming strategic losses because the United States got mired and slow grinding occupations its a parallel that israel should be thinking about as it enters its second year in gaza and begins to invade lebanon and lets get started iran retaliated against israel for high level assassinations. On tuesday, the Islamic Republic launched around 200 ballistic missiles at targets across israel, is were shot down. Most of them with the help of the u. S. And others. But some got through israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, vowed that iran will pay. So how might israel retaliate against iran . Joining me is danny to turn oh, its he served in israels Military Intelligence as head of the iranian strategic brunch hes now fellow at the atlantic council. Danny, welcome. Tell us, explain to us iran did this once before April 14th. And the israeli response was quite measured in response to irans hundreds of Rockets Israeli basically took out a crucial, but i think a single radar why is, why it is Robinson Netanyahu has seemed to be signaling this one is going to be this israeli response is going to be much bigger sunny Tel Aviv well, when youre looking at 14 April attack, we need to remember the constraints that israel had when he wanted to retaliate against iran. We had the american administration that pushing hard on israel to contain its retaliation but also we have hezbollah as a tool, as a measure that iran could use in order to threaten israel before what happened the last couple of weeks, hezbollah was a fearsome enemy to the set of israel which capabilities would actually inflict a severe damage to this strategic sites of israel so in that regard, those constraints where in the April 14 attacks that led to very symbolic response by israel. But unfortunately, right now, and possibly for the iranians, there are no constraints anymore. And i think thats really raising the chances that israel will retaliate. We tally it hard with dramatically significantly against iran so you said there the two constraints were the fear of hezbollah as the kind of loaded gun of iran in the second was pressure from the american administration not to escalate. Why do you feel the pressure from the american administration has has either died out or become ineffective time it was easy to say to them israeli Government Responsibility and nothing else will happen. And then we got struck again by the iranians. So obviously second time israel has to do something differently. But i think also it also connected to the american politics and its the fact that the administration, couple of weeks before the election cannot proceed. Someone that perceived as some of that pressuring israel not to defend itself. I think what the administration trying to do now is pressuring israel not. Of course, its not able to pressure, not retaliate, but he make a tried to make some sort of adjustment to a target the record because ministration is wary, afraid the things will escalate into a regional war. This is why the pressuring israel to pick targets that will enable them in the future to contain the iranian retaliation and vast preventing a regional escalation and no whether theyre going to succeed in doing so, but for sure, they are debates, discussion between israel and the us in that regard. And you have to win to be seen what will happen next couple of days and what israel will choose eventually if you had to guess danny theres been talk about nuclear Sites Oil refineries, and installations and other military targets. What do you think the attack will be focused on what israel wants to achieve before were thinking about the targets. What a thing, what israel wants to achieve im sure that israel doesnt want to find itself in a War Of Attrition with iran. And we have the lebanese arena and we have the Gaza Rina to focus on. And i dont think that we want to open another arena with iran, but we have to retaliate. This is why i think we have to pick targets that will enable the iranians to contain the response so obviously going for the Oil Refineries or even go for the nucleoside. This is something that will pressure the iranian regime to retaliate, but also they would think to cross the rubicon in terms of the nuclear capabilities. So i think in that regard, maybe the military sites, the many targets, targets will enable iran to continue in the future. But again, its all connected what the israeli government want to achieve from the future attack against iran and any, this will have to result in an iranian retaliation, right . Youre in iran expert. They presumably have to, particularly because now they dont have the option of asking hezbollah to respond they are going to have to increasingly get involved directly a thing that the chances are they going to retaliate. This is why we are standing in front of real Escalation Region one between israel and iran. Thats for sure. I liked 14 April, i think. Now the chances are higher in that regard and i think its also connected to the fight for like you said, the iranians feel the need to retaliate because of the situation of hezbollah. Remember that hezbollah was the cushion. What the real protector of iran the element that really deterred israel not to attack iran. Now, without hezbollah or with hezbollah diminishing in way because of the israeli attack against iran has to take a step forward using its Minutes Missile capabilities, but also a suspect, they will have to do something in terms of the Nucleus Strategy because they really want to fortify the deterrence with other proxies and of course it remains to be seen, but im afraid that if israel retaliates significantly higher chances that iran really tired as well to balance the equation between eight and israel insightful. Thank you so much for helping us think. I think this through next on gps. Israel bombarded beirut again last night. As this Ground Invasion continues in Southern Lebanon, what is hizballahs capacity to fight back well discuss with Kim Ghattas In Beirut when we come back brought to you by Fisher Investments clearly different Money Management Money for Retirement And Travel to visit our grandchildren. I understand. Thats why at Fisher Investments, we start by getting to know each other. So i can learn about your family, lifestyle, goals and needs, allowing us to tailor your portfolio. What about commissionbased products . We dont sell. Those were a fiduciary obligated to act in your best interests. So how do your Management Fees work . We have a transparent fee structured, so we do better when you do better. At Fisher Investments were clearly different. This is the carry on closet, the suitcase with one of the kind patented Closet System that keeps you organized anywhere . Michael, you need for up to ten days and travel without ever unpacking. The comfort of home on the go im talking seconds. 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