anchoring across cnn platforms you're going to see no more of me for a bit. but i'm omar jimenez. we'll see you again next week on may 13, 18, 46 the united states declared war on mexico president james polk, claimed that america had been attacked but in reality the invasion was a brazen land and grab american troops made it all the way to mexico city and the u.s. >> next to much of today's western united states the future founder of the republican party and illinois congressman named abraham lincoln passionately opposed the war but today's republicans have mexico in their sights. once again back when he was president donald trump as defense secretary, market esport if he could launch missiles at mexico's drug cartels without mexico's permission and then blame the attack on another country we. could do it quietly. trump said, no one would know it was us esper told him the idea was ridiculous an act of war against one of america's biggest trading partners but trump would not back down. and an oval office fantasy i will deploy all necessary military assets. became a 2024 campaign pledge. >> justified if military force to decimate the cartel each held a mexican present. either you do what are we doing and soon it was a popular republican policy over 20 republican congressman have signed on to a vast war power authorization on my orders like the measures for iraq and have gotten a star trump has ordered his advisers to draw adult plants calling for missile strikes a naval blockade and boots on the ground how did america and mexico come to this welcome to a special our on mexico i'm fareed zakaria from the border to the economy, to the cartels. >> america and mexico have a relationship that has been crucial and complicated america blames mexico for its deadly drug prices. while american demand helps keep the cartels in business, millions pore over the southern border. >> but without mexico's help, there would likely be millions and millions more in a myriad of ways. >> this pivotal relationship and how america chooses to shape it, holds the keys to both country's future is now driving the drug overdose crisis across the country it is the most lethal two drug epidemic in american history the fentanyl crisis synthetic opioids, mostly fentanyl killed an estimated 75,000 americans in 2023 alone more than all of the us troops skill in iraq afghanistan and vietnam combined deaths went up 94% in a three-year period and no one brings more fentanyl into the united states then the sinaloa drug cartel in mexico it was headed for years famously by what game guzman that are known by his nickname el chapo no one put more drugs on the street in american history. >> than him the dea says guzman was responsible for 25% of all the narcotics flowing into the us oh, chapo built a sophisticated billion dollar multinational empire that rival fortune 500 companies he was apprehended a few times and, got away a couple of times but now is in the us criminal system and doesn't look to get out anytime soon el chocolate bequeath his vast empire to four of his sons. the sinaloa cartel. one, least heavily armed fighting force known as the little chao pose all los chapitos ivan alfredo or we view and who i can and it was l choppers sons who made a breast shimmed early bet on a promising new product i would become america's biggest suppliers. i'll fenton they were able to see that producing fentanyl will be the new very important the synthetic drug in the market americans had been hooked on prescription opioids like oxycontin in the 90s doctors are prescribing more and more percocet vicodin, oxycodone, and we can't seem to stop taking it but then the government crackdown on big pharma in the 2000s the crackdown left a massive void in the opioid market and los chapitos race to fill it first with heroin then with fentanyl the profits from their new product were off the charts. the bosses of the sinaloa cartel are able to get just bought themselves 400 million per month, just profits in the pocket just five pounds of fentanyl could be sold for ten times as much money as 7,000 pounds of methamphetamine what's more fentanyl was easier to make than of the drugs in small labs, in kitchens and basements instead of massive operations out in the jungle. >> as with cocaine i'm benny cheap need that infrastructure by 2017, fentanyl was causing more overdoses than any other drug in america meanwhile, in mexico a new president, andres manuel lopez obrador was, embracing a new approach to the drug war he's even computerized the same, brussels nor balances hugs, not bullets. >> after years of mexico's military fighting, the cartels mexico's people had paid a horrifying price tens of thousands were dead from drug-related violence i'm low, wanted to reduce that violence and boost the job market he dismantled much of mexico's years security collaboration with america this is what it sounds like drug cartel powers, the state but when mexican forces tried to capture one of los chapitos gunning law enforcement doesn't even look like it was close to being fair fight. >> there were no man for the cartels arm mexican military captured them and then they got away let's chop pete. those are powerful and strong, but not by themselves. they have the complexity of many parts of the mexican government and the little choppers lethal product kept on coming by 2021 american overdose deaths, mostly from fentanyl we're over seven times higher than in 2015 with all of the carnage from the fentanyl epidemic bombing, the cartels without mexico's permission. maybe attempting election. you're talking point. but experts on the drug trade agree that this would only be a fool's errand and make things even worse for both mexico and america the challenge with the idea of bombing cartels is what are you going to bomb fentanyl labs are so small and so plentiful the trying to bomb them would be like bombing every convenience store in new york city you'll have to kill all the civilians that live in color the united states would be at war with its biggest trading partner and migration already setting records would spike even more he's really close that you are thinking that let's up to the cartels if america really wants to hit the cartels where it hurts pitcher dackel, its own insatiable demand for their product roughly 80% of the world's opioids are consumed in the united states of america you really want to fight against the cartels, destroy the market but rather than attacking the demand problem america has relied on brute force to fight drug cartels the dea says it has trained 551 mexican police officers in a decades-long losing game. of whack-a-mole 70% of all the cocaine sees in the united states came from here. >> in the 1980s, miami was america's capital of cocaine the largest boston united states history, $1 billion worth of cocaine the de a launched operation swordfish indicting dozens in the drug trade but the cocaine kept on coming operation, just call expand out in the air and on the ground in 1989 goals of the united states had bint to combat drug i'm trafficking. president george hw bush invaded panama out. >> i got it. i got to take out its leader drug trafficker manuel noriega. >> i think it's a major victory against the whereas lowers but american demand was still going through the roof in the late 19. we are proud to stand with our friend and our neighbor president bill clinton launched plan colombia this is a war and the enemy is cocaine sending billions to that country's military to target its cocaine operations drug production gets slowed down and came back even bigger and the production decline in colombia lead to mexico's cartels filling the vacuum we've seen this over and over again. if you destroy one laboratory, you destroy one field, you destroy one network, others will come and replace that there's another way that america actually helps mexico's cartels besides its appetite for their product 70 to 90% of all the guns strapped thank in mexico come from the united states it is a case of the mexican government has long claimed against the united states if you want us to stop sinning drugs where you need to stop sending the guns that fuel the violence here coming up the southern border and how the us has relied hi, iran, mexico to be its border enforcement i'm getting vaccinated and pfizer as pneumococcal pneumonia vaccine i'm at risk for pneumococcal pneumonia already gotten pneumonia vaccine. but i'm asking about the added protection of krever, not 20 if you're 19 or older with certain chronic conditions like asthma, diabetes, copd, or heart disease, or are 65 or older, you are at increased risk for pneumococcal pneumonia, prevnar 20 is approved in adults to help prevent infections from 20 strains of the bacteria that as pneumococcal pneumonia in just one dose don't get prevnar 20 if you've had a severe allergic reaction to the vaccine or its ingredients, adults with weakened immune systems may have a lower response to the vaccine the most common side effects for pain and swelling at the injection site, muscle pain, fatigue, headache, and joint pain. >> i want to be able to keep my plans. >> i don't want to risk ending up in the hospital with pneumococcal pneumonia. >> that's why i chose have now your doctor or pharmacist about the pfizer vaccine for pneumococcal pneumonia. >> what the biggest companies, the liver is an exceptional customer experience. what makes it possible is unmatched connectivity and biji solution from t-mobile for business the t-mobile connects 100,000 delta airlines employees, powers tractor supplies, stores nationwide with reliable by chief business internet, and partners with pga of america on game game-changing innovation. this is how business goals further with t-mobile for business a breaking point at the us-mexico border year after year records of the border are shattered pager surge of border crossing over 2.4 a million migrants were apprehended last year, an all time high numbers have been staggering breaking the record set just one year earlier which stop the record set the year before that he erect the point of people have been coming everywhere from haiti to venezuela, from all over the world india, vietnam afghanistan. but one country that's actually not driving the surge is mexico at the start of the century, mexicans made up 98% of the migrants at the southern border last year, only 29% hello, from mexico what's more? the number of mexicans coming to america has sometimes been fewer than the number of mexicans leaving the the us to go back to mexico in recent years that's due in part to the country's economy, which has been doing pretty well people want to stay home. >> and the more working opportunities there are in mexico the more people will tend to stay home or even return mexico has even become a destination for many migrants. >> the fifth most popular country for asylum seekers in the world in 2022. >> instead of being big border crosses, the mexicans have become america's go-to border in forces. sadly, one element of an american response is always going to be to outsource as much of the enforcement question as it can to the mexican government, mexico is actually in very much the same bind with migration as america. >> mexico has a very similar problem, overwhelmed with people who are applying for asylum. police forces are overwhelmed. the shelters are totally overwhelmed and as mexico's government's struggles to keep up, the journey has become even more perilous for the migrants will makes it so dangerous is the fact that there are threats really on all sides on the one side, violent drug cartels who have found a cruel new way to make money. >> you will see organized crime moving increasingly into the trafficking of migrants smuggling business has become even more lucrative than dealing fentanyl for migrants. it can be just as deadly when cartels can't extort migrants for money, they often just kill the people if kidnapped another danger often and mexican authorities sometimes corrupt sometimes inept sometimes lethal in march 2023, a fire broke out at a migrant detention center migrants were left blocked in the cells killing dozens looming over all of this mess is the united states. there's no question that the us is certainly complicit in some of the things that are happening in mexico. if not outright responsible. >> the fact is america has relied on mexico to do its dirty work for years, deterring, detaining, and deporting migrants before they get to america's southern border. and it's a strategy that's been relied upon by both republicans and democrats july 2014, america was witnessing an unprecedented crisis big came without their parents a wave of migrant children coming from central america, seemingly overnight, tens of thousands of children and families showed up at the southern border. the us government was caught completely flat foot president obama, bush, mexico to focus on the southern border mexico's southern border. 1,000 miles away. us dollar helped transform mexico's border with guatemala a network of military bases observation towers, canine teams, and mobile checkpoints sprung up on the hunt for migrants part because of strong efforts by mexico we've seen those numbers reduced back to much more manageable levels. the next year mexico deported more central americans than the united states. for the first time in history. and so by the end of the obama administration, you weren't seeing the same kind of drama at the southern border that you saw in 2014, people kind of wrote it off as problem-solve but obama strategy didn't work for long president trump arrived with bold rhetoric when not letting these people invade our country but when his draconian policies failed, a growing outrage over families being separated at the border and the construction of his border wall dragged trump focused on turning mexico into his wall many believed that would be a challenge mexico's new leader andres manuel lopez obrador had campaigned on ending his country's migrant crackdown. >> this idea that we're not going to do america's dirty work what is a fresh wave of migrants headed for the us. >> we won we want mexico stop. >> trump threatened to bury mexico's economy under an avalanche of tariffs i'm low, changed his june on migration once he came into office, he doubled down and moody and further than the previous government he expanded trump's remain in mexico policy forced to wait in some of the most dangerous cities on earth, trapping more migrants in mexico and he turned his newly formed national guard meant for taking on drug violence into a border patrol thousands of troops fanned out across mexico. >> and there were scenes, really grizzly scenes, all through mexico of these national guardsman really cracking down and responding with force migrants would tear gas and thrown into prison like detention centers. some was shot and killed the mexican government has defended the national guard, saying good respects human rights mexico is doing more for the united states as of now. >> then congress president biden took office promising to dramatically change the nation's approach to migration. it's time for our better angels to prevail but the us continued to rely on mexico to do its dirty work cooperation on migration continued and even expanded with the biden administration the results under biden more of the same. let's get real in the same way that water runs downhill. >> human beings go where there's a better deal and that better deal, more economic opportunity and a better life continues to be found in the united states the truth is mexico can't solve america's border crisis it's really up to america all of the obvious solutions to reduce pressure at the southern border run through congress and congress is a kind of deadzone on this issue. >> lawmakers block of water, neal until we run right into a wall and in a surprising twist, that political paralysis has given mexico leverage over washington with america, depending on mexico to control the border amlo use that leverage this strengthened his hand at home inching mexico towards autocracy without a peep from the us coming up next disturbing rise of an illiberal democracy next door the most anticipated moment of this lecture. >> and mistakes couldn't be higher. the president and the former president, one day to moderated by jake tapper and dana bash, the cnn presidential debate thursday night at nine live on cnn and streaming on max cities, industry-leading global payment solutions help their clients move money around the world seamlessly in over 180 countries. >> and help a partner like the world food programme as they provide more than food to people in need together, city in the world, food programme and power failure across the globe you know what's brilliant thing about it boring is the unsung 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and as it. >> turns out, from mexican voters to almost after two months of public debate accusations and protests in the streets, a winner has finally been declared. >> mexico's presidential election the year who was 2006 and the elections loser the man sowing the chaos was the former mexico city mayor andres manuel lopez obrador i'm low as he's come to be known, would never forget that loss and for that, mexico's democracy would suffer in 2018 i'm low won the presidency and increasingly adopted donald trump's ways accused of defying the constitution and threatening mexico suppose democracy his handpicked successor, cloudy sheinbaum, was recently elected president and many fear that amlo, will still be the power behind the throne once she takes office his head he's not the president of mexico he's a owner of mexico mexico is rapidly becoming an illiberal democracy like hungary or turkey but in this case, right on america is doorstep the birth of mexico's modern democracy. is an inspiring and relatively recent tale the country was a one-party state for over seven decades ruled by the institutional revolutionary party or pre they held elections but not free and fair elections. so they managed to control the presidency. the federal government, as well as the governorships now there is for many, many years every leader shows his successor and the party was accused of relying on repression and fraud to ensure victory. >> but then along came a small but mighty government watchdog. >> the federal electoral institute. it oversaw mexico's elections and became the foundation of mexico's democracy this electoral institute really became world-class. it became one of the most independent run by technically sophisticated people and became known as it adl of electoral agencies in 2000, the prese, grip on power finally ended with then-president and nesters the deal paving the way for mexico's first free and fair election but amlo was just around the corner after he lost the presidency for the first time in 2006 i figured luton he ran and lost it again in 2012 through it all. he kept his eyes on the prize in a few hours. >> mexicans will be waking up to andres manuel lopez obrador as the newly elected president the year was 2018 lopez obrador and his morena party. we're now calling the shots and mexico's hallowed election watchdog the successor to the agency that called omelas election losses, was in their crosshairs amlo was upset that he lost the 2006 election and it was the electoral institute that called the result two, he is always, since that moment held a grudge in an effort to undercut the institute. amlo has again and again championed what he calls electoral reform in late 2022 he proposed massive cuts to the institute's budget and personnel potentially crippling its capacity to run elections democracy has mexico knew it, hung in the balance. >> even so, mexico's legislature approved omelas reforms protesters took to the streets but then mexico's supreme court overturned the president's plan saving mexican democracy. for now he systematically eroded the checks and balances that civil society leaders and politicians worked hard to build up over the last 20 years taking a page out of donald trump's playbook lopez obrador has repeatedly vilified members of the media martinez, synonymous is good, you i see at one press conference, he learned several prominent journalists saying that listening to them is quote bad for your health. and that quote, you could even developed a brain tumor the very next day, there was an assassination attempt against one of those journalists prominent news anchor sarah gomez leyva mexico, i think is probably one of the most dangerous countries in which to be a journalist in the world. and it doesn't seem like the government is even, coming close to taking the situation seriously enough another frightening feature of amylose mexico a chilling surveillance tool called pegasus operators can covertly installed powerful software on a target cell phone and then see nearly everything on that device from texts two emails, to photos mexico's military was the first ever client to purchase the spyware over a decade ago. >> and over the years, mexico has been one of the most prolific users of the software in the world. >> the company that developed beggar says, says that its software is supposed to be used only for fighting crime and terrorist hello, promise to end the political spine. >> but pegasus infections targeting journalists and activists have continued under his watch many suspect the military is responsible. they deny it and the military's powers under arm low hardly and they're are many daddy became we'd the main power in mexico. >> and this is very, very, very dangerous i'm low and his marina majority legislature replace the federal police with the new national guard full of active military members mexico's armed forces have also headed up customs operations and built major infrastructure projects like a controversial new airport to see the degree to which the military is now kind of out and about in the domestic sphere. i think that's a major shift and something that given mexico's history are a lot of people are legitimately concerned hello democracies are really hard to build and they're easy to break i think a real question is, what does the next government do with omelas? hand-pick? successive president elect claudia sheinbaum set to take office in october that remains to be seen coming up despite all of its challenges mexico could actually be on the cusp of an economic golden age that's next they are unpredictable sleeping giants, every volcano has its own personality we don't understand them. >> they are windows into the heart of our planet. >> lives will be lost. violent earth with liev schreiber next on cnn dan made progress with his mental health, but his medication caused unintentional movements in his face, hands, and feet called tardive 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monterrey, mexico is nothing short of a boom town these days. it, resembled southern california with swanky shopping malls, pricing he restaurants and luxury apartments outside of town, new factories are sprouting up everywhere that's because this city of 5 million, a major industrial hub in mexico is that the center of a massive metamorphoses in the world economy where mexico is challenging china. as america's factory it's a hugely significant moment in terms of understanding what's changed about the nature of globalization that we've all grown up with china's factories are famous for for making cheap t-shirts and jeans. and the 1990s and 2000s, china was the factory of the world. thanks to its endless supply of cheap labor china centric globalization has dominated the last three decades clothing, shoes, 506070, sometimes not hi andy 90% of products made in china corporate america thrived on this. >> china's centric business model experiencing a golden age of profit again, you want to keep by job, but american manufacturing was hit hard. they want to take your throat out. they want to cut your part. >> there have been herself folks. we're going to stand up to china and along came donald trump. >> punish china with tariffs. president biden kept those tariffs when the world's factory shuts down, it ripples around the globe the pandemic disrupted supply chains with china. >> even more. >> dozens of cargo ships are idling at two of the biggest ports in the us. ready to go running out? >> a vast range of manufactured goods causes a significant reassessment. >> american companies wanted their suppliers be much closer to home, geographical proximity to the us cannot be overstated and the popular trend emerged nearshoring here, shoring, nearshoring nearshoring nearshoring basically means bringing production bank from a far away place to a closer plays and they look in part at mexico mexico became america's ideal partner right across the border with low-cost labor and a free trade deal in 2023, it eclipse china as america's leading source of foreign goods. we see trade up 2020, 5%. it's in autos, it's in machinery, it's in electronics i mean, there's a feeling of, you gotta get in there fast. it's like almost a gold rush there have been more goods coming across the border at a laredo, texas than goods arriving at the port of los angeles, trucks often wait hours for chance to cross into the radar many of those goods come from monterrey and it's home state of new evo leon tesla is opening at gigafactory in the monterey area. the state offers good security and a highly skilled workforce tecta monterey, mexico is mit train stop engineers the competition, for local labor is intense driving unemployment down to less than 3% the mexican worker there certainly in a position where they have much greater bargaining power than in many other parts of the world. chinese companies are showing their robust manufacturing prison. >> and in an unexpected twist, lots of chinese companies are coming to mexico to to get them made in mexico labeled for their goods and avoid us tariffs. trade between china and mexico spiked nearly 40% in four years chinese companies are reacting aggressively china's bold moves and mexico so could backfire are hemisphere has been invaded by china. >> their stock in the u.s. of closing their clever tariff loophole but as america but continues to distance itself from china in their geopolitical battle royale. mexico's hopes remains sky high and moderate is poised to lead a nation what a brighter future coming up. >> i'll give you my thoughts on max the most anticipated moment of this lecture and the stakes couldn't be higher. >> the president and the former president, one stage two, very different visions for america's future that cnn presidential debate thursday net it now live. i'm cnn and streaming on max on medicare. >> have diabetes with a freestyle libre three system. you'll know your glucose and where it's headed, no 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protection of krever 20. >> if you're 19 or older with certain chronic conditions like asthma, diabetes, copd, or heart disease these or are 65 or older, you are at increased risk for pneumococcal pneumonia, prevnar 20 is approved in adults to help prevent infections from 20 strains of the bacteria that cause new one cockle pneumonia in just one dose. don't get prevnar 20 if you've had a severe allergic reaction to the vaccine or its ingredients adults with weakened immune systems may have a lower response to the vaccine. the most common side effects were pain and swelling at the injection site, muscle pain, fatigue, headache, and joint pain. >> want to be able to keep my plans i don't want to risk ending up in the hospital with pneumococcal pneumonia. that's why i chose prevnar to ask your to three-to-one, three-to-one today celebrate. >> go four is in america thursday, july 4 x 70s dirt on see it in closed captioning brought to you by meso book.com our firm only represents mesothelioma victims and their families. if you or a loved one who has been diagnosed with mesothelial call us now now for some closing thoughts on this crucial relationship one of mexico's longest serving precedents during the 19th century is said to have remarked about his country's fate for mexico so far from god. >> and so close to the united states in fact, for much of its modern history, mexico almost defined itself in opposition to the us. >> as i've written before, people don't realize how far the relationship has come. >> mexico saw itself as part of what was then called the third world. resentful of its neo-colonial treatment at the hands of its arrogant neighbor to the north from the mexican perspective, the united states is relationship with it was characterized by exploitation and annexation after a failed attempt to purchase what is now california, arizona, new mexico, and other western states. president james polk invaded mexico and essentially sees this territory in 18 53, the united states acquired even war mexican land in the gadsden purchase in total, the us guard, roughly half of mexico's land after that and well into the 20th century, washington's approach toward mexico was usually aimed at protecting the interests of large american corporations especially its oil companies, that had tried to operate in mexico with minimal interference from local authorities all this bread of political climate of defiance and resistance towards washington that made cross-border cooperation difficult on almost any issue mexico was one of the few countries that rejected us assistance through john f. kennedy's alliance for progress program things turned in the 1990s, the cold war ended, and the idea of a socialist country became less threatening to the united states mexico went through a series of economic crises in the 80s and 90s and desperately needed help it began opening up its economy and its political system. us firms were doing more business and mexico and wanted a stable trading partner. washington began to realize that the best solution to all the problems across the border immigration, drugs, violence was a prosperous democratic mexico relations between mexico and the us soon transformed. the old anti-americanism faded into oblivion. the two countries stepped up cooperation on almost all relevant issues signing the north american free trade agreement and working together on everything from water management to immigration, two drugs, the us used to be inundated with mexicans coming illegally into the country over the past decade and a half more mexicans have actually gone back home that have arrived. >> but with the rise of amylose party, now, deeply entrenched with a near super majority under its new leader, claudia sheinbaum the reformers are in retreat don't expect to see much pressure coming from the north under trump and biden washington has had a transactional relationship with mexico help us with drugs and immigration and mostly with immigration and we will not press you on the backsliding of democracy and the rule of law and mexico the result has been that mexico is transforming into an illiberal democracy with a new one-party state that is turning its back on many of the reforms that have modernized its economy and society over the last four decades this is tragic. >> mexico is the united states top trading partner, even outranking china and canada but this understates the interdependence between the two economies one study estimated that 30% of finished goods the united states imports from mexico is u.s. made content higher than any other country? a staggering number of people go back and forth across the border every day just to work, shop or see a doctor by one estimate, over 140 million times a year. >> the two peoples are now deeply intertwined economically, politically, and culturally the late george shows ronald reagan's rock ribbed republican secretary of state, used to tell me that he thought that greatest opportunities facing the united states was to take its relations with canada mexico, and transform them turning the region into a north american powerhouse it would become he believed the greatest economic engine in the world and create a zone of peace, prosperity, and cooperation. >> and even more powerful model than the european union today we see on both sides of the border narrow self-interest and short-term politics chooses long-term vision should be the strategic goal for both nations thank you for watching the special our on mexico and fareed zakaria