>> in a conversation with henry kissinger in the 1970s, china's leader mao zedong said he could live without taiwan. >> for now but in 100 years, we were wanted. he said and what's more? we are going to fight for it >> mao's one on hundred-year deadline may arrive ahead of schedule >> in a chinese >> documentary called chasing dreams the country's bravest warriors declared their willingness to die. >> in an >> all-out invasion of taiwan it was accidental. >> if it's too hard to remove the mines and taiwanese waters. one says we would use our bodies to clear a pathway but we shouldn't go to my fighter jet would become a >> missile rushing towards the enemy if i used up my ammunition says a pilot i want to see the other side of the strait. a soldier declares i've been preparing for that day >> a war >> over taiwan would be an act of madness tens of thousands could die nearly one million jobs have disappeared. >> there could be a global great depression nuclear weapons would be on the table and attack would be a massive gamble for china's communist party could risk losing the party's grip on power. >> with china >> appears to be preparing for its d-day its leader xi jinping has said, he seeks a peaceful reunion. >> but >> he wants his military ready to invade if necessary >> within three >> years, according to us intelligence why would china risk everything >> and throw the world into turmoil? over an island and less than 1% of its size to understand why we need to understand taiwan once a land of poverty that became a powerful economy taiwan was officially slated to japan, a former colony turn vibrant democracy but for >> china, they full-scale civil war over taiwan it is an open wound part of a history of humiliation which remains unfinished business good evening. i'm fareed zakaria welcome to a special hour on taiwan the national palace museum holds much of china's most precious works of art treasures from the song dynasty vases from the ming dynasty 8,000 years of priceless history it's china's metropolitan museum of art. it's louvered >> but it >> is not in beijing it isn't taipei, the capital of taiwan >> erase fork territory began in 1949. >> there has to be no compromise >> at the end of a brutal civil war china's leader, chiang kai-shek, shipped those treasures to taiwan. >> the communist or in the young sea valley to keep them from his rival mao zedong >> they carried those treasures with them because as the guardians of the chinese civilization, they felt that they had to also be the guardians of those objects. >> year after year. >> this civil war goes on john and his nationalist party had been fighting mao and the communist party since the 1920s in one of the bloodiest civil wars the world had seen. >> they have passed the point of no return overseas, say the communist, each side blames the other over 2 million soldiers were killed or wounded with roughly 5 million civilians dead and chiang kai-shek was about to lose this was a war between two parties fighting for the soul of china ultimately the communists won >> russia, china, that is played powerful and ruthless communist co-equal of soviet russia chairman mao declared the dawn of the people's republic of china, the >> nationalist government >> plea to the independent island of promotion chang and his half-a-million troops escaped to taiwan, but claim their defeat was only a temporary setback. >> liberate the homeland in the call to arms ciao harbored this entity of recovery the mainland. >> chiang kai-shek set up an entire government in exile with leaders for all of mainland china's provinces. this was a pipe dream recovering the mainland. so pipe dream the regime mobilized the whole island to fulfill that pipe dream of retaking the mainland even though most of taiwan's population was not even from their high pay, the taiwanese capital is the government feet up nationalist china. >> taiwan had its own history and people a mix of ethnic chinese aborigines and other groups. >> taiwan's early there's a series of wars, rebellions than >> it had been occupied by japan since the late 1800s at the end of world war ii the nationalists took over, imposing their own personal dictatorship and they brought their autocratic ways from the mainland. >> no opposition party, freedom is limit him to stay international accuses the government of torturing political prisoner tens of thousands were murdered by the regime. can get shakes, ruled became known as the white terror the rationale was that essentially taiwan was under siege, under siege from the forces of communism in fact, chairman mao was attacking taiwanese islands near the mainland throughout the 1950s for both sides, the civil war had never really ended they each are trying to indicate to the other this isn't over >> red china and warned by the president that he will not hesitate to commit american armed forces >> mao's attacks got america's attention the addition of nike hercules missile batteries on for moshe and nearly led to the unthinkable the us >> responded by threatening to strike china's coastal cities with nuclear weapons >> one of the war's most historic meeting which america's relationship with taiwan had been complicated i mean, can you buy a long list your references during the national china, it had bankrolled chiang kai-shek in the civil war then turned its back on him after he lost and plan to abandon him. if mao invaded >> what in >> june of 1950 >> you're fighting in korea for our own national security and survival. >> communist north korea invaded south korea and neighboring taiwan became a crucial cold war plan >> the tune in washington changed 180 degrees >> the most powerful nation the world we have to assume responsibilities president harry truman sent the navy into the taiwan strait >> horizon hoff praise for most of all keeping alive as of liberty >> and america back taiwan >> as the >> only legitimate government of china john kai-shek those kim il-sung, a major debt of gratitude for saving his regime because mao was about to send 1 million troops across the taiwan strait to finish his regime. >> and madame chiang were pictured as the aging kennedy's of a camelot of the us. >> now, ben, did chiang kai-shek >> welcome to three china as a defender of freedom, the green liberty. but by the 1970s times what changing america was losing a war in vietnam and president richard nixon needed a new cold war strategy >> the greatest threat to united states was not china. it was the soviet union. >> china could be an important supplement to the american deterrent against soviet adventurism in europe, as well as asia worldwide >> nixon sent henry kissinger on a secret visit to beijing >> east meets west as a handshake, rigid just 22 years of hostility. >> the following year, he met with mao. >> we do not want laws to ideology or philosophy between peoples >> opening the door for a whole new relationship with mainland china our two peoples tonight hold the future of the world in our hands meanwhile at the united nations >> mao's china was invited in sign guy sets taiwan has confirmed the was forced out >> you say final leaving >> okay. okay. oh, no, no. no question. one. any question on a few years later america recognized beijing as the real china. >> this will serve the interest of both our nations cutting off diplomatic relations with taiwan to the health the republic of china >> people in taiwan are freaking out this would leave taiwan in a globally highly isolated position >> taiwan had reached a dangerous low point what's more can i shake its longtime leader had died can son changjin war took over and pursued a bold new strategy to move taiwan toward democracy. in order to save it >> he knew that the future of taiwan with depends on support of the us but how do you build up american support? you have to be really democratic >> john filled key government posts with native taiwanese massive pro democracy protests which can further and helped spawn the democratic progressive party. taiwan's first big political opposition >> martial law was declared officially at an end in 1987 can lifted the island's decades long state of martial law >> john oversaw a major political liberalization inside taiwan. >> the following year, taiwan's gorbachev passed away and his vice-president leading way, a native of taiwan, took the helm he regarded himself as someone standing up for the island's interests and this was a real earthquake in terms of the domestic politics of the island of taiwan you're mouth grossi under president lee arrive fast and furiously old unelected legislators from the mainland were forced out the first full elections for parliament brought new blood in we used to joke about how you have to go to taiwan every year because something is happening for the first >> time in every election candidates are out in force, voters in taiwan go to the polls as they directly elect their president for the first time taiwan's first free presidential election was held in 1996. >> this election represents an historic turning points. >> the combination of nine years of reforms and lead down way known as mr. democracy won decisively for the first time in china's 4,000 year history, >> this is a major step as farming and authoritarian state for the world's first genuinely democratic chinese society a chinese people had freely chosen its leader >> wayne, i'm doing the impact of what happened will be shaping asia for the next 50 years back in beijing >> the leadership here cannot allow any attempts to divide china. >> there was shock and rage. >> you warnings by china's military military exercises. >> week sonya, china had launched missiles that landed close to taiwan. >> they jing insist democracy is not a suitable form of government. >> and rehearsed for an amphibious assault >> missile firings into the sea. just to show their ire and their anger >> not only had the so-called renegade province gone democratic, beijing acknowledges deep opposition to independence there was talk of independence during the campaign >> these struck a defiant declaring that he would never give in to china and he's pressure a nightmare scenario for the party of mouth. >> taiwan's troops remain on high alert >> if taiwan were to consider proclaiming independence it would be literally explosive that is the one thing the mainland has said would provoke an attack >> coming up >> taiwan mainland for represents a stunning change. >> how a reunion between two bitter enemies possible once upon a time i brought in a. >> jew max protein with 30 grams of protein. those who tried me felt more energy in just two weeks. here, i'll take that >> ensure max protein, 30 grams protein one prim sugar, 25 vitamins and minerals let's get a new fiber blend with a prebiotic demand for energy is growing. and so as the need for american oil and natural gas, it's time to turn the lights on >> america's >> resources 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each other. >> highest level talks between the communist china and its longtime nationalist adversary in 43 years but there was always the hope that they would remain family this is the story of a family rift that seem to be mending but became permanent much to the shock of beijing for decades, china's founding revolutionary moussa iran had been threatening to liberate taiwan by force >> but all of that changed with how successor deng xiaoping deng pursue that kinder, gentler approach to the world, including taiwan. he made it an offer. he thought it couldn't refuse if the island returned to the motherland it would be allowed to essentially run itself keeping its own political system, its economy >> and >> even its military he's offer slogan was wine country, two systems >> dung's old classmate challenging, whoa, turned him down >> but quietly chang abandon his father, changhao shakes old pipe dream of taking back the mainland >> the prime minister has visited china in september 1982, provided the opportunity to open discussion deng then offered one country, two systems to the british colony of hong kong in the 19 >> hoping it would eventually become an a leering example. for taiwan >> hong kong was supposed to be the test case to prove that the prc could be trusted to actually tolerate another system >> then suddenly a bizarre breakthrough when a taiwanese pilot hijack the plane and defected to china the two sides were forced to in their silence for the first time since the chinese civil war, leading to a surprising rapprochement >> thousands of taiwan residents are returning to their families and hometowns here. >> families that had been separated for decades. we're now allowed to visit each other. trade once a trickle rose into the billions a national unification counsel in taiwan explored a roadmap for a reunion and a historic summit in singing good four was held to much fanfare >> there were a lot of people who are kind of trying to come up with something. >> should >> it be a commonwealth? >> or a >> confederation, or what about something like the eu >> but taiwan was undergoing a massive sea change. democracy was flourishing >> president lee's swept to victory with almost 54% of the vote and the taiwanese people were asserting their own unique identity. >> the question really became, why are we still worrying about china? >> we've been separated since 1949. why can't we just get a divorce >> beijing was shocked and appalled by this metamorphoses i don't think the chinese communist party and its leadership have ever understood the reality on the ground in taiwan >> what's more the pro unification nationalists lost power in 2000 to the more anti-mainland democratic progressive party, a major democratic turning point in taiwan and though the nationalists regained power in 2008 >> and signed a flurry of trig deals with china they were met with massive protests known as the sunflower movement >> students occupied parliament polls have just closed in taiwan >> soon. >> taiwan's more anti-beijing party, the dpp, was back in power >> really very clear victory for saying what meanwhile, in beijing a new leader in the mold of mao was far less tolerant >> of bold assertion from its sibling rival, xi jinping his signature initiative it was china's great rejuvenation restoring its historic status as a great power to taiwan is brought back into the fold. that rejuvenation will not be seen as complete in hong kong >> xi effectively eradicated one country, two systems bringing a freedom loving city to its knees. >> taiwanese were riveted by what was happening in hong kong >> the message to taiwan was clare you could be next backroom deals, cia secrets, >> affairs, bribery, corruption, prostitution so much more to the store in knighted states of scandal with jake tapper next sunday on cnn, life. >> diabetes there's no slowing down each day is a unique blend of people to see and things to do that's why you choose lucerne it to help 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semiconductor manufacturing company microchips are the oil of the 21st century and if taiwan is attacked the whole world could grind to a halt lunging into a global great depression how did taiwan, this david and the pacific become the goliath of semiconductors? >> this. is the >> story of how one man rewrote taiwan's destiny and how microchips might save its future 1949, mao's communists saw sweeping across china driving can guy shake and the nationalists from the mainland left behind is a nation in chaos a young student, morris chang, also fleas leaving hong kong for hover. then mit. eventually, he moves to cowboy country. >> my detected largest of all the united states and drones another premier institution texas instruments >> at the time, ti semiconductor is number one in the world. >> it was d company to work for if he were in the semiconductor industry here, chang becomes an american >> the objective semiconductors and a master of making chips. >> it was very exciting time for the semiconductor technology today and tomorrow, >> a new tool in chill making, it is more of an armed than a science. >> the basic goal make it smaller, more reliable, more economical and that's what morris chang was particularly skilled at finding new ways to improve product quality and drive down the price. >> while china was climate being the corporate ladder china shook the world detonating its first nuclear bomb in 1964 >> meanwhile >> a bloody war in vietnam had america considering a root three in >> when richard nixon was elected, he gave a very prominent speech talking about having asian allies and partners stand up for their own defense rather than relying united states if you're sitting in taiwan that made you very, very nervous >> taiwan desperately needed away to keep its powerful ally on board >> the >> solution link taiwan's economy much more closely to americans, to give the us more skin in the game the more us factories they had on the island, the more us companies would have a real stake and making sure that china didn't attack >> by 1969 texas instruments was in taiwan the island was industrializing quickly. >> it's so-called economic miracle, fast becoming the fame taiwan miracle meanwhile, morris chancts, korea had stalled at texas instruments soon taiwan came calling its government, asked him to lead not just one company, but to lead taiwan's entire chip industry it was an offer he couldn't refuse >> he saw a unique opportunity to build something almost from scratch. >> now, in taiwan can pioneered or radical new business model. at the time, most chip companies designed and made their own chips but manufacturing them was painstakingly difficult and expensive. so chang decided that taiwan would become the world's master chip maker building the chips that other companies designed >> the intuition was sort of like gutenberg. gutenberg didn't write any books. he only printed them more. shane didn't want to design a eu chips. he only wanted to manufacture them chang's approach was a massive gamble >> at the time it was a crazy idea because there were no companies that existed that only designed to chips but can was determined in 1987, he founded the taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company, or tsmc. >> it would give birth to a series of other startups that wouldn't have to invest in factories wouldn't have to invest in equipment and only do the design and rely on him to manufacture. >> and that was essentially how taiwan changed again, the orders started rolling in ducting equal and the company became an industry leader >> he smc, leave frog in his technology breakthrough, and intel and samsung had no way to catch up. >> today tsmc is the only company making the most powerful semiconductor in the latest iphones. a chip backed with 19 billion microscopic transistors each, less than half the size of a coronavirus that mastery has made tsmc one of the most value both companies in the world >> tsmc is the crown jewel. >> it >> has semiconductors that everybody wants >> but one of the company's biggest customers is also taiwan's biggest threat china is highly dependent on tsmc it got 70% of its chips from there in 2020 and this is something that makes them concern frightening. but also inked some in china say it must seize tsmc >> but could they its total announces the most valuable things about tsmc is it's all engineers. those engineers could refuse to work >> some believed tsmc isn't a target on taiwan, but a silicon shield over it. >> tsmc is going to be a deterrence against the idea of aggression against taiwan >> that's because an attack on taiwan would likely shut down the chip industry and ruin china's own economy for xi jinping that might be a risk worth taking for china. >> it's not just about chips, it's about unification that is part of their basic ethos >> coming up next what would an invasion of taiwan look like >> oh, this was caught in the trap. any couldn't get out >> vegas was having an 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military amid the chaos a decapitation strike chinese special forces tried to kill or capture taiwan's leaders meanwhile, a full on amphibious assault with hundreds of thousands of troops crossing the taiwan strait this, is one of the most dire scenarios experts predict for a chinese invasion of taiwan and, it may happen sooner than you think >> beijing may be moving much faster than expected with its plans for his reunification chinese, leader xi jinping has said that he seeks a peaceful reunification but he has also said that china will never commit to abandoning the use of force to reunify with taiwan and that he wants his military to be ready in three years. according to us intelligence a single spark could set the wheels of one motion >> experts say any kind of accident that could escalate out of control. he is a possibility >> something as simple as an accidental collision of chinese and taiwanese jets once we have an accident, we could see a range of the cascading actions that could eventually lead to potential a major chinese use of force >> an initial force 60,000 chinese troops could try to gain a foothold on the island paving the way for up to 1 million for troops to arrive. but taiwan would be no easy target much of its terrain as rocky and unforgiving very challenging for an amphibious assault are key to victory for china, experts say would be speak securing crucial footholds on the island early before the united states and its allies could react >> beijing must think twice. if they are not able to take taiwan over quickly. i think they need to pause before they add. >> president joe biden has repeatedly said that the us would defend taiwan us forces, us men and women, would defend taiwan in the event of a chinese invasion? >> yes >> but it might take a while for the us to pull the trigger on such a massive operation. she could also try a very different approach, taking taiwan without firing a single shot >> how >> by launching a massive blockade of the island with china would be doing is trying to choke taiwan to make its population and its leadership capitulate taiwan is almost completely dependent on coal and natural gas imports for all of its electricity most of its food comes from abroad those supplies could run low in as little as two weeks, according to some analysts, bringing the island to its knees whatever she decides >> the >> scary fact is that taiwan may not be fully prepared to defend itself >> many >> military experts have urged taiwan to rely on the so-called porcupine strategy >> the idea there is for taiwan to make itself so prickly, so pointy that it would be difficult for china. >> i wanted me to spend on a large number of small things. things like shoulder fired missiles and mines these weapons have relatively small and simple to operate, yet potentially have a very high impact we have to be i but to inflict so much pain on our adversary and to ensure that they cannot come a step closer >> yet, taiwan continues to order billions of dollars of bigger weapons from the us, like fighter jets and tanks the china could destroy in a matter of hours. and over all the talk of invasion looms the specter of the most horrific threat we're totally in on territory. >> china has more than doubled its nuclear arsenal since 2020, according to the pentagon, one of its most ambitious military initiatives even without nuclear escalation. this is a war that all sides would lose. >> we could see millions dead. >> a disaster of historic proportions we find ourselves and looking at numbers that are akin to world ii >> up next my thoughts on taiwan >> backroom deals, cia secrets, affairs, bribery, corruption, prostitution >> there's so much more to the store. >> united states of scandal with jake tapper. next on cnn how do i love the let me count the ways >> love can get a little messy. >> good thing. there's resolved. >> love the love >> resolve the mess. >> why choose asleep numbers, smart bad? >> can it 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our 99.9% network reliability. and security that helps outsmart threats to your data. moaire dida twoo? - your data, too. there's even round-the-clock customer support. so you can be there for your customers. with comcast business, reliability isn't just possible. it's happening. get started for $49 a month. plus, ask how to get up to a $800 prepaid card with a qualifying internet package. don't wait, call and switch today! go to harrys.com slash shave to claim your $7 trial rafael romo at the georgia state capitol in atlanta. this is cnn closed captioning brought to you by mesobook mesothelioma. >> it's all we do with local offices throughout the country and does help you get the compensation you deserve 800 to eight to 44, 44 and finally, some of my own thoughts on this subject >> a >> couple of years ago, the economists declared on its cover the taiwan, this tiny island, home to 24 million people was the most dangerous place on earth. the reasons it came to that conclusion remains sound. in fact, have only grown stronger recently the backdrop to the tensions over taiwan is of course, the new geopolitical rivalry between china and the united states ever since the rise of xi jinping and then donald trump both nations have fundamentally shifted their attitudes toward the other. from benign to wary. the hostile >> perhaps the extraordinary and rapid growth of china and the reality of america's dominant status make this inevitable a rising power faces an established one, creating a situation that may be in the words of graham allison dustin for war but are we destined for war? the us and china are unusual in that while increasingly geopolitical rivals, they're also deeply intertwined economically one example, during the cold war, at the peak of us soviet trade, the two countries exchanged $5 billion of goods with each other in one year. china and the us to $5 billion in trade every few days. and that number has not dropped that much even as tariffs, bans and restrictions have grown in recent years >> in addition, china does not seem to be a revolutionary state seeking to overthrow the international system and present the world with an alternative ideology to america that idea logical rivalry at the heart of the cold war is largely absent today one thing that is present, however, is nuclear deterrence china and the us both have large arsenals, which should have the effect they have had elsewhere on the us and soviet union to pakistan and india in detouring all out war and yet, and yet there is the problem of taiwan that sits at the heart us, china relations. china has never accepted the taiwan can be an independent country every leader, beginning with mozilla so has a firm. the goal of reunifying the two but in the past, communist china believed that it could wait because time was on its side eventually, the mainland with its massive economy and billion plus population, would draw the tiny island of 24 million into its orbit. that was the thinking >> but that premise is proving untrue taiwan has developed into a feisty democracy with the political culture defined by its political system and in stark contrast to china over the past few decades, taiwan has gotten more determined not to reunify with china. >> so >> xi jinping must look at this situation, feel time is not on his side perhaps it would be better to act sooner than later for america and its many allies in asia chinese aggression to retake taiwan would be unacceptable washington has been willing to accept china's claims on taiwan, as long as it did not use coercion to achieve them, taiwan the policy for all sides has been about tolerating fantasies about the future. as long as there are no practical changes in the present most people in taiwan simply want to make taking the status quo and keep things going as they are while the recent elections on the island brought to power for a third term, a party that is closely clearly associated with the idea of an independent taiwan. it's worth noting that god only 40% of the vote with the other 60% going to two candidates with less independence minded position what does all this mean? that this issue will need to be managed rather than solved and managed very carefully both by beijing and washington >> this is the >> one place on earth where there should be little room for macho rhetoric and provocative actions all three sides should keep talking to ensure no misperceptions or miscalculations deterring china from invasion is crucial. but persuading taiwan to avoid needless provocation is also important to washington should be careful not to needlessly the provoke china as well. none of this is morally satisfying. but the stakes are high enough that one thing is clear where these tensions to be mismanaged, where this conflict to turn into war it would be a lose, lose, lose for all three parties. indeed, the whole world would suffer cataclysmic consequences better the kick the can down the road, as long as possible. and hope it doesn't explode >> thank you for watching this special hour on taiwan i'm fareed zakaria

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