this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. today on the program, after seven days, the truce between israel and hamas is over and the war is back on. i'll ask a former idf officer whether israel's tactics will change in this phase. will it be more precise, more careful about civilian casualties as the united states has asked? and then i will talk to a man who knows the casualties well. a british palestinian surgeon who has worked in gaza hospitals during the war. finally, the death of america's most famous 20th century statesman, henry kissinger. i will talk to his biographer niall ferguson how he changed the world for better and for worse. but first, here is my take. henry kissinger, who died this week at 100 years old, may have been the most famous foreign policy practitioner in modern american history. but he practiced for just eight of the hundred years. he left office as secretary of state nearly half a century ago. and yet admired or despised, he managed to hold the world's attention long after his power waned. what explained this remarkable run? he was that rare breed. a doer and a thinker. someone who shaped the world with ideas and action. first, his accomplishments. kissinger presided over a pivotal moment in the cold war. when it looked to much of the world like america was losing. the united states was in fact losing a hot war in vietnam, the first major defeat in its history on which it had staked its reputation over four administrations. the soviet union was on the offensive, building up a massive nuclear arsenal and gaining allies across the world. by the end of his eight years in office, things look different. the vietnam war as over, the soviet unions forward momentum had been thwarted by a diplomatic coup and the opening of relations between washington and beijing. that one stroke moves china, the second most important communist power out of the camp. and simultaneously negotiations yielded major arms control agreements. in the middle east, moscow's long-standing ally egypt expelled its russian advisers moved into the american orbit and began negotiating with israel. ape process that culminated some years later in the first peace treaty between an arab country and israel. kissinger was behind each of those four achievements. everything he did was surrounded by controversy. the right blasted him for the opening to china which was seen as a betrayal of taiwan. conservatives also hated the day taunt with moscow and with obsession of credibility, kissinger dragged out the vietnam negotiations for far too long, signing a deal in 1973 that was not to different from the one that he could have accepted in 1969 that would have spared the lives of attorneys of thousands of americans and hundreds of thousands of vietnamese and cambodians. he presided over hassan in when became bangladesh was a abomination and a failure. the bombing caused untold human suffering and distorted the politics of the region for decades. his disregard for human rights in places like chile and indonesia left a long shadow over america's reputation. he was the first jewish secretary of state and the first immigrant to ascend to that office. that background shaped his world view. though he spoke about it rarely. i grew up in germany as hitler came to power and watched what was perhaps the most advanced and civilized nation in the world device mass murder. he was too suspicious of democracy and human rights because he had seen demagogues like hitler rise to power through elections. he often remarked attributing it to gutter, that between order and juster, he would choose order. because once chaos rains, there is no possibility for justice. i met him first three decades ago and over the years go the to know him quite well. we had both ben graduate students in the same department at the same university and many of his colleagues had been my professors. he was a complicated man. warm, witty, proud, thin-skinned and paranoid and deeply curious and intellectually serious about the world. he was the only global celebrity that i met with the lights dimmed, retreated to his library to read the latest biography of stalin or reread spinossa. he was seen as a loan cowboy pursuing his mission. the image of kissinger as cowboy might seep odd, but he was about being on the american strategic landscape. in a country of optimistics, henry kissinger was a european pessimist. he began his career worrying about nuclear weapons and over the years he would speculate gloom illy that japan would become a nuclear power and that europe would fall apart and islamic extremism would triumph. in our last lunch, he worried about israel's ability to survive in the long run. from start to finish, over a century, henry kissinger's abiding fur was that disruptive forces set in motion to rip off the thin veneer and pushing us into the abyss like the one of which he came of age. go to cnn.com/foreed for a link to my column this week. and let's get started. ♪ the delicate seven-day truce came to an end on friday as israel accused hamas of air strikes. they have released over 100 hostages while israel released almost 250 palestinians. now, israel isn't just fighting hamas, it is also trading fire with hezbollah, the iranian-backed militant group based in lebanon. cnn correspondent ivan watson is in southeastern lebanon with the latest on that front. tell us, is there a kind of escalation, because so far what has been striking is, despite many fears, both hezbollah and iran seem to have been fairly restrained. so if there is some heating up here, how did -- who is escalating on which side of the border? >> well since the truce ended in gaza, that truce was applied to some degree here ang lo the border between lebanon and israel. and since the fighting resumed in gaza, this kind of artillery duel has resumed. so just where i am, i've been hearing the thud of incoming isr israeli artillery. there was a blast, a strike about an hour and a half ago that shook the building i'm in and frightened some of the remaining residents in the surrounding villages. some of whom said they've never felt an israeli strike this close to this area. it has not been of the same intensity of the fighting that you've seen in gaza. in part because this area is not nearly as densely populated. the villages around here are largely evacuated. the buildings are closed right now. the civilians do have places to run to. but it is right, you've pointed out, we have not seen the war on this border, the conflict escalate to the levels that we saw in 2006 when israel was bombing targets in beirut and triggering a max exodus by sea out of lebanon. that said, it has been deadly in the first month and a half here. at least 100 people killed on this side of the border. the majority of them hezbollah fighters but also more than a dozen civilians including journalists. so this is something to watch closely right now because there are fears, i think on both sides of the border, that this could ramp up. and lebanon is fnot in any position to sustain a war. it is in political crisis. it hasn't had a president in more than a year. it has an acting prime minister. and it is still reeling from a devastating economic crisis which the world bank described as one of the world in the world since the 19th century where last year you had 30% unemployment, and from 2019 to 2021, gdp per capita shrunk some 36%. so anecdotally while many lebanese have a lot of sympathy for gaza civilians, i think there is very little appetite for a full fledged war. and even though kind of low level conflict that we're seeing along the border is having an impact on lebanon's economy. this is a time when tourists come in ahead of the christmas holidays and we're not seeing that right now because of the fear. if anything, people are leaving lebanon because they're afraid this could escalate further. >> fascinating. thank you so much. stay safe. next on gps, i'll talk to a colonel about israel's main war in gaza. w what is the strategy there? we'll l find out.. french president emmanuel macron say that israeli leaders need to define their goal because the dotal destruction of hamas would mean the war will last ten years. vice president kamala harris said israel must do more to protect innocent civilians. so as israel resumes the offensive in gaza, what is its strategy and will it heed america's call to safeguard civilian lives. i'm joined by miri eisin and director of the international institute for counter-terrorism. miri, welcome. so if you were in response to define israel's strategy, how would you describe it? >> destroying hamas is very challenging as he said. but what the israeli strategy is, is we're focusing on their military terror capabilities. that is actually something that you could break down in a very specific way. you're going after 16 years of building positions, accumulating weapons, building the subterranean arena and training these different thousands of terrorists and that is what israel is doing with the military capability. it goes hand in hand with the diplomacy, because of the issue of the hostages, you want to try to get to the hostages, that is part of the picture. but it is most definitely focusing on destroying military capabilities and thinking about that next day of what will come instead. >> so if it is focused on destroying those specific military capabilities presumably these are tunnels, these are passage ways, these are weapons caches. shouldn't there be a greater emphasize on sending in idf special forces rather than what appears to be a kind of a more carpet bombing approach? in other words, i know that is putting forces in harm's way but that is a more precise tactical way. and this is something that the u.s. discovered in iraq. you have to send special forces in rather than just bombing the entire neighborhood to smithereens. >> you could say in that sense, that what we doing in the three weeks of the ground offensives is what you're talking about. but it is not only special forces. it is a combination of different type of infantry forces because you need to go into urban area, very densely populated. the first thing that israel did before we went into the ground operation is we were telling civilians, please move. go to the areas that we defined to save your lives. your going into urban areas that are still unhappily filled with civilians and so when i say systematically and slowly, you're going in to make sure that you never target civilians but you could get to the different positions that are built into apartment buildings, into mosques, into schools, into kindergartens, so you need the forces on the ground to do that. you need a large portion of forces to be able to detect the shafts to go into that subterranean arena, you have to have forces on the ground, it is a combination of special forces together with the different types of infantry of engineering corp that could go in and blow up those tunnels. and all of this, fareed, where we all know, there is the challenge that the hostages themselves are most likely held mainly inside of the tunnels so you could have to do everything systematically and slowly. i know it seems like we're doing it from the air. it is very much on the ground. we were still on the ground in this week of the -- of the pause which was done to get out our hostages as much as possible. but it is taking it systematically and slowly to save the civilian lives, we need to do so, not just for us, but it is the right thing to do but because at the end of the day, the civilians in the gaza strip deserve a much better future than one where hamas rules. >> the reason i think many people think it is been a war mainly from the idf own numbers, the number of bombs it has dropped in northern gaza far exceeds what the u.s. dropped in afghanistan over four or five years. so when you look at southern gaza, i'm wondering, you've already moved a million people into that area. so now it is twice as densely populated as it was. how will you manage this balance? is there a different more precise, more targeted approach orks is there going to be a replay of what we saw over the last 45 days? >> the biggest challenge in that sense is the way that the terrorists themselves, over 16 years, embedded themselves and built themselves all of the different positions within the urban area underneath in that that subterranean arena. and it is a larger amount of people. as we told people to go from the north to the south and we've been doing that again. telling people in the area of eunice, where to go to save their lives. doesn't make it easy. doesn't make it pretty. how do you change in that sense? you do it carefully, with as much information as you can have. the information is not from the air, per se, you need to go in and to start it. i don't think in that sense that my biggest challenge for me as an israeli is that i can't leave the hamas there in any way. what they built there over 16 years is something that threatens our existence, in the fact that if this type of terror organization could do so, embedded in the population, this is a threat for the entire middle east. so we will go in, we will try to be as exact as possible. and i say it not just for myself, but for my kids who are the ones who need to do that kind of targeting we're talking about israeli soldiers who have to make these decisions, you never target civilians, but the entire gaza arena is urban warfare and that is the biggest challenge there is. slow, systematic, careful. >> miri eisin, thank you so much. next on "gps", we'll bring you a picture of the toll the war is taking on gaza civilians. i'll talk to a surgeon who has just returned from 43 days in operating rooms in the gaza strip. you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? it's true. plus when you buy your first line of mobile, you get a second line free. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening. israel has issued new evacuation orders similar to the ones they gave in october before the ground invasion of northern gaza. this is prompted fears that a new brutal campaign may be imminent in the south. joining me now is a man who has seen for himself the devastating effects of the war in gaza on civilians. dr. ghassan abu sittah is a reconstructive surgeon who returned to the u.k. last week from 43 days in the gaza strip, operating at the al shiva and arab hospitals and he's given what he alleged are war crimes. welcome. let me ask you. you have treated wounded civilians in the wars in iraq, in yemen, in syria, and in the wars in gaza, i think everyone since the second infadda. i'm wonder how what you're seeing now compares to what you have seen in the past? oh, i think we've lost him. no, there we are. >> for me -- >> please go ahead, sir. >> i can't, the volume is really low. but if i understand your question about the difference between the two experiences, it is really the difference between -- i've never experienced something of this magnitude. the idea that you would be operating for 43 days and 50% of those that were operating on were children. the sheer number, the magnitude of all of the injuries and the killing was like nothing i've ever seen before. >> and what about the facilities, were they getting better? were he finding it was possible to get power, to get medical supplies or are things getting worse? >> every day, was worse than the day before. we were running out of antiseptic solutions, special dressings. but by the end, we had run out of morphine, we had run out of ketamine that we used to anesthetize people and doing dressings to keep wounds clean but nothing but -- but no ketamine as it ran out. the day that i decided to leave and literally that time at 5:00 minute morning, we ran out of the anesthetic medication. we're no longer able to treat any of the patients and in the o.r. >> do you worry that with these operations in southern gaza, that there could actually be a total collapse of the health care, the hospital system itself? >> the thing about southern gaza is it only had between a third and a quarter of all of the beds in the gaza strip. and with the doubling of its population, and now the sheer number of wounded, when i moved to the south the last two days, i felt completely helpless. there was no way of getting in patients to the operating rooms, and it was such a pressure on the operating rooms and there were so few operating rooms. that is why i decided to leave gaza. because a surgeon, i had become redundant and the systems had collapsed so much. and it is really just -- it is the end of anybody who gets wounded and the wounds are stacking up because as things stand, that system is incapable of dealing with the injury. >> dr. abu sittah, you know that you were in al shiva hospital, you were operating there. you know that the israeli government said that this was a key headquarters for hamas, or a controlled center for hamas. did you see anything there? do you have any comment on that israeli allegation? >> first of all, that does not -- i mean, so, the whole narrative about al shifa, it is from the fact that the whole system was attacked and dismantled. before they got to al shifa, they dismantled four pediatric hospitals. they had attacked and since then -- so saying that the health system failed, it is being dismantled. when i was at al shifa, had come across any armed, i would walk freely i was trying to do the dressings as we were running out of them and would go around the hospital trying to get what i needed from other departments and other operating rooms. but did i see an area that looks out of bounds and i've been down to the radiology department to get radiology to comment on some ct scans of my patients. still, i could not see anything. actually, i take to the realization, because we weren't getting any men fighting. i came to the realize is it was a military medical system. even the wounded that we were getting were all civilian and we weren't getting any that were being moved. so it was obvious that there was a parallel system that existed. but in al shifa hospital, even the policemen who were trying to maintain crowd control in front of the emergency department so that the relatives would not completely overrun the emergency department, they had weapons. >> thank you so much, dr. abu sittah. pl pleased to hear from you even though it was a grim message. next on gps, how did israeli and palestinians feel about each other and about hamas and prospects for peace. we have some fascinating answers from important surveys when we come back. so how do the palestinians feel about hamas? about israel and the prospects for peace. my next guest has the answers. amaney jamal is the dean of princeton school of public and international affairs and also a founder and principal investigators of the arab barometer, a polling organization. her most recent survey completed on the eve of the hamas attacks ploe provides a snapshot of people with their leaders. we're here to discuss the broader changes in public opinion across the middle east. pleasure to have you on. >> pleasure is plien. thank you for have me. >> let me start by asking you a question that i often get asked. what does it mean that the palestinians elected hamas? how much weight should you put on that statement? >> well, that is a really good question. fareed, when you think about what is going on today, how much weight should we put on the elections in 2006, first of all, i want to draw to the attention of everyone that 50% of the population of gaza has been born since 2006. >> so they weren't even born. >> so they weren't even born. so that is 50% that weren't even born. and when we dissect the 2006 election, what we know is that hamas won 44% of the popular vote. so it was never that they had this landslide victory. and we also know from 2006, a lot of that vote was based on combatting corruption in the ranks of the palestinian authority. hamas succeeded because it had a platform of holding the palestinian authority accountable for their largesse and their corruption, levels of corruption and their excesses in terms of the way they were governing. >> when we look at it today, what do we know from polling data about the level of support palestinians had for hamas before the attacks? >> what we know is that in the three to four weeks before october 7th, two-thirds of the palestinians said they had no trust or little trust in the hamas governing regime of gaza. on the west bank, those low levels arine lower. >> for the palestinians. >> for the palestinians and across west bank, and gaza, there was very little trust in the hamas led government. only about a third of gaza said they trusted that government. and 72% of palestinians in gaza said they felt there was widespread corruption and in the ranks of the hamas-led government. >> so what do we know? i know i'm asking you to speculate, but the rally around the flag effect. now that gaza has faced this massive bombardment, is it possible they rallying around the hamas flag. >> when we look at our data, what we know, when you have the cycles of violence, it plays brilliantly an hands of hamas. it is seen as trying to protect the palestinian people. >> resist. >> resist the israeli sort of assaults on gaza. and what not. so this has traditionally benefited hamas. having said that, this time we're seeing levels of disruption and devastation that we haven't seen in previous cycles. we need to think how this might bode well or not for hamas. but i think if we take a more dynamic and multi-faceted perspective on what is going on, i think support for hamas is also going to le linked to what happens with support for the palestinian authority on the west bank. so if the palestinian authority continues to be seen as delegitimate and also corrupt and lacks popularity and then this might mean that citizens will rally around hamas because there isn't a governing authority to rally around. >> you do polling in the whole region. so another question that i think a lot of people might have is the abraham accords, where israel made peace with some of the gulf arabs and morocco. it was premised on the idea that the arab street said it cares about the palestinian issue but they really don't. and that these governments could make a deal with israel without worrying too much that they will be offending the aid, their population. what does your polling tell you. >> our polling tells us that this has not been substantiated throughout our time. it resonates well, and it is an extreme high priority issue among populations across the arab world. i do believe maybe among the leadership, among the governments there was a desire to move on beyond the palestinian issue. some believing that the palestinians issue holding them up as you know regional dynamics have shifted more of the countries including israel, along with arab countries sort of view iran as a threat. so that people would like to sort of maybe have alliances with israel to sort of protect against the iran access. and those leaders also needing to move beyond the palestinian issue to form those alliances. >> but it is a state issue. it is not the perspective of society? >> no, this is a state issue, not the perspective of society. >> in a post -- after this war, whenever that is, what do you think we'll see in terms of palestinian public opinion in gaza particularly? >> i do believe it depends on what happens now. violence breeds violence. if violence were going to solve this conflict, it would have been solved by now. so my worry is that this -- this violence is going to set a whole new generation of the future to sort of believe in violence as a discourse. if we're able to emerge from this crisis, where there are some sort of agreement that say hamas emerges weakened or agreed to some sort of de military status quo, this might allow for the palestinian authority to play a meaningful role in the transition. but if the discourse is we've had this destruction in gaza and hamas might remain viable, and there needs to be just another governing authority to govern the citizens of gaza with no hope for peace or statehood or political future, i think we'll see more of the same, fareed. >> pleasure to have you on. >> the pleasure is mine. thank you so much. next on "gps". >> i'll unpack the life of henry kissinger with niall ferguson, the state's offificial buy iogr. few public figures in the united states have been so lauded and so loathed as henry kissinger. joining me to discuss his complex legacy is the renowned historian niall ferguson. he's a senior fellow at stanford, university. he spent two decades researching the stateman's life and his b biography spanned a thousand pages an that is just volume one. welcome, niall. let me ask you, you've seen social media and some of the articles, and there is an enormous amount of animosity and hostility surrounding kissinger. and often very personal, personally calling him a war criminal. i wanted to ask you, what is your reaction to kind of charge? >> well, my reaction to much of it is revulsion, frankly. bonham is a good rule but it hasn't held back the haters. henry kissinger never expected to win a pop you'llir ate -- popularity rate. it was bound to be unpopular. so i don't think it would be surprising him. it is frustrating because it misses some very fundamental and important points about the nature of foreign policy, for example that the most choices are between evils and you just have to try to choose the lesser evil. >> so give me, let's talk specifics. take the bombing of cambodia. a secret bombing and tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands killed and the critics were charged all of this terrible tragedy for nothing because it was sort of meant to frighten the north vietnamese into conce concessions which they never really made. >> well, a couple points about the cambodia controversy. the most influential book on that subject is william shorecross's side show but he's since largely repudiated that book and concedes that it exaggerated significantly the death toll to cambodian civilians. so that is a problem for the twitter army. but the second point is to remember what the objective was, not just of bombing cambodia, but later sending u.s. troops into cambodia, which in fact caused even more controversy. the north vietnamese were the ones that violated the neutrality and using it to funnel troops and weapons into the car against south vietnam. so there were strong military arguments for attacking the north vietnamese bases in certain parts of cambodia that were crucial to their war effort. this didn't really particularly emanate from kissinger, it came from the department of defense and it came from the u.s. military in vietnam. and richard nixon was president, not henry kissinger, when those decisions were taken. so the second point i would make, is most of the critics don't have the faintest understanding of the conflict in indo china and in particular of the malignant rule that north vietnam played in violating neutrality of cambodia and also of laos. >> what about bangladesh. kissinger wholeheartedly backed pakistan and hundreds of thousands were killed. and again, unsuccessful, because east pakistan becomes bangladesh, and attempt by pakistan, west pakistan to continue to control it didn't work. and yet, you know, you have this moral abomination on your hands. what do you make of this? >> well, gary bass has an excellent book on this which is highly critical, channeling the arguments of state department personnel who felt strongly engaged in the issue. but kissinger's points are all along there is a hierarchy of priorities. what were the strategic priorities of the nixon administration. the first was to get out of vietnam. the second was to improve relations with the soviet union to avoid a kind of third world war. which had come close in 1962 and thirdly to open to china and that opening to china is generally regarded as henry kissinger's most brilliant strategic move. well, there was no easy way of getting communications to beijing. particularly at the height of the cultural revolution. and it turns out that the key channel that the chinese were prepared to trust, they tried many but that was the one that the chinese trusted was pakistan. there is another dimension to which -- i don't think that was crucial in kissinger's mind. you had to sacrifice lesser pieces on the board in pursuit of ultimate victory in the chess game and that is how he thought about diplomacy, as an elaborate game of chess and the united states and soviet union and a country like bangladesh was just a small pawn. this is very hard for the critics to accept, because most of them are never sat in "the situation room," the most difficult decision most critics of henry kissinger has taken is a tenure decision at a history department. when you are making decisions at the highest level of foreign policy, there has to be a hierarchy of priority. that is just as tew today as it was back in the 1970s, the odd thing is that there is a double standard, for some reason, one could guess about why. henry kissinger has been subjected for 50 years to a much tougher standard of moral judgment than other national security advisers and secretaries of state and this is a puzzling phenomenon because it is not as if he's the only secretary of state or national security adviser who ever had to turn a blind eye. >> niall, we're flat out of time. we're have you on again as we always do. thank you for that. and thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week.

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