but three taylor swift shows before he was born. sarah's a big fan. "the lead" with jake tapper starts right now. a new twist in donald trump's classified documents case. kind of sounds like a game of clue. "the lead" starts right now. a plumber, a maid, and even a chauffeur. the names from mar-a-lago who could soon be key witnesses in the criminal case against the former president. and a cnn exclusive, kevin mccarthy one month after his fall as speaker of the house and not holding back on the so-called crazy eight who voted him out. >> they care a lot about press, not about policy, so they seem to just want the press and the personality. plus, a political stunner. democratic senator joe manchin says he won't run for re-election, so will he run for higher office? welcome to "the lead." i'm pamela brown in for jake tapper. and we start with our law and justice lead and brand new exclusive cnn reporting about who could be called to testify in donald trump's classified documents trial. from a plumber to a driver to a woodworker to former white house staffers. you may recall the former president is accused of mishandling classified information after he left office. the fbi executed a search warrant at trump's mar-a-lago property in august of 2022 believing that despite a subpoena trump didn't return classified material that belong today the federal government. well, according to the indictment the fbi said it found boxes of classified boxes in a storage room at mar-a-lago and in a grand ballroom and in a bathroom. trump's federal indictment included photos of the documents inside mar-a-lago and revealed some of the material included information on u.s. defense and nuclear capabilities and on the militaries of foreign governments. let's get straight to cnn's kaitlan polantz. walk us through this reporting and the witnesses that were the eyes and ears of mar-a-lago. >> it's a shoef, a maid, a woodworker, people we were able to confirm are very likely witnesses, people investigators had already spoken with and could be calling at trial to testify against donald trump and others. the people who were not just around donald trump on a day-to-day basis but were noticing things around the club property. they were aware of visitors coming in and out and a woodworker was installing crown molding in the bedroom of donald trump and noticed some peculiar stacks of papers in that room, wasn't sure what they were. what appears to have been classified records that he at one point thought were movie props. he wasn't sure, but they were suspicious enough he talked to investigators about it. that's the sort of thing prosecutors could be presenting at trial just to highlight how unsecure mar-a-lago was once you were inside and how accessible these documents were that trump kept and is accused of criminally mishandling and not giving back to the federal government after he leaves the presidency. >> right. i mean, federal prosecutors are no doubt relying on these 150 employees who work at mar-a-lago like that woodworker, like that housekeeper trying to piece together what exactly happened would the former president mishandling classified information. and it's not just those employees, right? you have secret service agents and an australian businessman who could also be called to testify. >> right, what we've been able to understand is it's not just 150 or so employees working at mar-a-lago and contractors and full timers. there's also secret service agents that could be called to testify as prosecution witnesses. there are former intelligence officials and top aids of donald trump in the political sphere and also in his business world, but one of the things to note here is that not all of these people might be called, and it's possible that none of these people could be called before the election because right now the trial is set for may, but we are still waiting to see what judge aileen cannon is going to do. does she move the trial after the presidential election next year? and thus would we not be hearing from these people about what it was like at mar-a-lago after the trump presidency? >> right, learning about the presidential candidate's behavior before the election. we'll see what the judge decides on this. thank you so much. let's bring in cnn's kristen holmes and ellie honing. >> first of all they're normal folks. they're not d.c. insiders. their maintenance workers, pool staff, people who just work every day. they'd be relatable to a jury. second of all, by all appearances they haven't participated in any wrongdoing or criminality. their people who happened to be at mar-a-lago and see or hear things that are relevant. and these are people literally on the inside. they're inside mar-a-lago, and sometimes even in the case of the crown molder worker kaitlyn talked about get to go into restricted places workers ordinarily wouldn't get to go in. >> one of them is a housekeeper who cleaned the former president's bedroom. these are people who had access typically employees may not have. on that note, how has trump world been preparing for all these witnesses to possibly share what they know? >> the one thing to keep in mind here is trump's legal team knows who the witnesses are. trump has been ordered not to communicate about the case with any of the potential witnesses, so in order to do that they have to actually know who the witnesses are. the number one objective there is finding out exactly what they know. some of that is going to be easier than others. for example, we know many of the people who work for mar-a-lago, who work for donald trump are actually being represented by lawyers who are being paid for by donald trump. that's going to be the easy part. they know that those people were witnesses. they know exactly what they said. it's the other people going to be a bit harder, the people who they're not sure exactly what it is that they know. they don't have any communication with their lawyer. that's where the real preparation comes in, trying to piece that together. >> and so, biased on what kristn said, this is complicated. there are people who still work at mar-a-lago, rely on their work for their livelihoods. trump aligned entities are paying for some of their lawyers. so i mean how valuable will these witnesses potentially be in that context in. >> well, it certainly puts these witnesses in a difficult position. anytime somebody is having their counsel paid for by someone else, first of all it's a itternity to cooperate. because naturally someone in a position of a less powerful witness like these people will fear if they tell the truth and it's harmful to the boss, word will make its way back up to the boss. the second concern is they could lose their lawyers. donald trump and other affiliations could decide it's within their rights to decide we're no longer paying for your lawyers. these folks would have to go out their own lawyers which can be mighty expensive. we've seen this over and over again in trump world. cassidy hutchinson being one example, and only after they got away and got their own lawyers were they fully able to compete. it's absolutely a complicating dynamic but it is capable of being overcome. >> there's a wide range of witnesses here. your reporting includes trump went ballistic when prosecutors asked to speak with a maid who cleaned his bedroom. which witnesses is trump world most concerned about? >> they have these enormous amount of access. what exactly did they see, what exactly are they going to say? the other part of this is anyone no longer in trump's orbit, those are the people going to be more complicated for trump and his legal team to get to because it's still about figuring out what exactly they know and they're going to say. there are people who ended relationships with mar-a-lago or the former president not on great terms, that a possibility. and anyone who's not stayed in the grace of donald trump or his world, that's a possibility. we can't reach them, we don't know who their lawyers are or other people who have essentially turned on the former president. that's something else to look into. >> then of course this is all against the backdrop of trial and cases. you have that civil fraud trial under way where trump is accused of lying about the value of his assets. trump's defense is scheduled to start monday. and now we know their first witness will be donald trump jr. what do you make of that? >> it's an interesting decision. what this tells me is donald trump's team hassing more they want to get out of donald trump jr. there something they didn't have the opportunity to ask him when he testified earlier this week or didn't occur to them to ask them. what happened earlier this week the a.g. called donald trump jr. as a witness. donald trump's team could have cross examined him then but opted not to. now they're saying we want him to be our first defense witness. the advantage for the defense is you'll now have this witness as a blank slate so donald trump's lawyers can ask donald trump jr. essentially anything they want within the realms of relevancy, but it gives them a sort of broader swath they can go through with donald trump jr. it tells me they're trying to build an affirmative defense. they're not just going to demur and hope for the best. we'll see how much more different his demeanor on the stand is when he's direct from friendly lawyers than essentially being kbhaned on the other side from the a.g.'s lawyers last week. >> high guess is it's probably going to be a little different. up next the surprise announcement from senator joe manchin. he'll not run for re-election. how the move puts his democratic party in a bind as it heads into the critical 2024 electition ye. i believe in my heart of hearts that i have accomplished what i setout to do for west virginia. i have made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that i will not be running for re-election. >> democratic senator joe manchin's surprise announcement today. he will not run for re-election. this will clearly field questions about his presidential ambitions, but his decision will immediately hit democrats. in fact, it already is. they are hoping to keep control of the senate after the 2024 election, but as we know right now they have a slim majority on the senate and this is a big blow for them. i want to bring in cnn's manu raju. how big of a loss is this for democrats? >> it's a huge loss. there'd been some expectation he was unlikely to run. he was 76 years old and already facing the prospects of a difficult re-election bid, facing the sitting governor, a conservative state. but the fact he's not running makes it almost certain democrats will concede privately it's going to flip to the republican side. and where does that lead them? then it's a 50-50 senate that's going to be difficult to hold both of those seats. also in key states democrats have seats in wisconsin and in michigan and pennsylvania and in arizona. the independent senator of kirsten sinema, what will she do? the map is difficult for them. they really only have two republican incumbents they can pick-off, ted cruz in texas, rick saut in florida. the decision by manchin has huge ramifications for the map and also for the first two years of either joe biden's second term or the president. >> huge implications. and let's talk about the exclusive interview with house speaker kevin mccarthy. he is still clearly very angry at those who ousted him from his speakership. >> yeah, he said there should be consequences for those eight members who pushed him out, particularly congresswoman nancy mace, that she doesn't deserve to be re-elected and went after matt gaetz who led the charge, and republicans in the house would tremendously benefit if you are no longer in the house. and he also indicated there's a long ways to go in healing the gop divisions. >> it really shows the conference is not united. and it hasn't solved the problem if those they had taken out and myself and you just put somebody else in and you haven't dealt with the consequences for those who put us in this place. i mean that's why you look -- we're still wondering whether government is going to be shutdown or not. that's a real challenge, and we're going to have to heal ourselves to be able to serve the people. >> won't the speaker confront the same problems that you had? >> no. look, you get a honeymoon, but it was personal. it was about an ethics complaint, and they can't go through it again. i mean think about how long it took last time. so do you think they would do that again? i think the democrats also realize that it wouldn't be smart for the body itself. i mean -- >> so even if he goes and relies on democratic votes the way you had to do it, you think he would be safe and not be pushed out of the speakership? >> oh, yeah. i don't think anybody can make a motion to vacate for the rest of his term. i think he's safe regardless. >> you really think if he does something that upsets them, that nobody will try to push him out for the rest of the congress? >> no. >> why? what gives you that confidence? >> who are you going to replace him with? you've already taken out steve scalise. >> they don't seem to care. they don't think about the long-term stratoge of this stuff. >> this is too important. >> that part is actually significant at this moment because they've got to decide how to avoid a government shutdown by the end of this week. will mike johnson, the new speaker, try to keep the government open bypassing a bill that relies on democratic votes? that cost speaker mccarthy his job as speaker. if johnson does that, mccarthy thinks the republicans that pushed him out simply don't have the stomach to try to push johnson out if he does the same thing, so we'll see how that plays out. that is very important at this key moment. >> and mike johnson is keeping his cards close to his vest in terms of what he might do. he also brought up tensions with the former house speaker. >> one, she occupies office space which is a valuable commodity to the capitol, close to the house floor after she was ousted -- after she stepped aside as speaker. but she was ousted from that spot, the office space because of kevin mccarthy. he said, well, now, there's another former speaker so i'm sorry. he down-played her concerns she raised. also she said that she told him back in december she would not support an effort to oust him from the speakership saying it'll be bad for the house. and so he is very concerned not just at the eight republican whose pushed him out, the former speaker, the current house democratic leader who all voted to kick him out of the speakership along with those eight republicans. so even though it's been more than a month since he lost the job, all that very fresh in his mind as he adjusts to life as a rank and file member. >> manu raju, thank you. and you can see more of the interview on inside politics sunday at 11:00 a.m. here on cnn. senator manchin may be coy about possible presidential ambitions, but someone else is nonot and jt announced d a 2024 bid. that's coming up. the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. and we are back with our 2024 lead and the battle for control of the u.s. senate getting more interesting today as democratic senator joe manchin of west virginia announced he is not running for re-election. so let's discuss with our panel, eva, starting with you. you have a very popular republican jim justice already running for manchin's seat. it's likely, it's expected he's going to flip the seat. this is a big blow to democrats. >> it does seem that way or congressman alex rooney who's also competing for the republican nomination. certainly republicans are well-positioned in west virginia. though, if you speak the democrats they argue and you know this being from the south pam or being from kentucky, that no states should completely be seated. there's a working class message for working class voters and you should not throw up your hands and give up here. but it's difficult in that state. she's from coal country, she ran a great campaign in 2018, got lots of attention. she ran again in 2020 and lost by 40 points so it's not an easy environment for democrats in that state. >> at the very least it'll be a huge fight. and manchin was intentionally vague in that video he put out in running for president. he certainly, though, did not close the door. >> no, he did not. and of course we have the no labels campaign out there certainly laying the ground work for a candidate just like joe manchin. but as you said he did outline his plans for the future really working to travel across the country, bring this country together in a more moderate, cohesive way, and certainly whether or not he's the head of that or working for that movement, that's great. to his credit, look, he's been a tremendous senator for people of west virginia with a moderate voice than the true public servant not a self servant. i can tell you this republicans are excited about this announcement. steve danes said this afternoon we like our odds in west virginia, so that gives us the opportunity potentially not only to pick up west virginia, there are two other key seats that are potential pickups for republicans. that is montana as well as ohio. so if that were to be the case, then good news for republicans and possibly regaining control in the senate. >> pam, let's take it broader than just what's going on in the senate and the idea what this means for organizing as a political party in the modern era. joe manchin is a millionaire a couple of times over, which is very disconnected from the majority of people in west virginia. and he is also an older white man, so if you're looking at the idea of appealing to a moderate audience that either trump or biden don't appeal to, manchin checks a lot of the boxes that have been problematic for voters that are younger, that are more diverse. so it's not a guarantee that what he has to offer is something that american voters actually want in the presidency. >> we're also learning about jill stein announcing the surprise presidential bid today. she is seeking the green party's 2024 nomination, and the question is always what is this going to mean for democrats and republicans? >> well, i think there is an appetite for her capped d.c. among the progressive left right now who are very angry at president biden specifically for his foreign policy response right now in the middle east, at they argue is not humanizing palestinians enough. so it does make sense why jill stein sort of sees a pathway for at least for her to be in the conversation. but, you know, we have all covered politics in this country, and for a long time there has never been sort of any pathway for a third party candidate. i suspect this year will bow no different. >> the pathway for third parties often being the spoiler candidate. it's likely to pull voters away from trump. and jill stein, where would she pull voters from? and is that in enough of a margin that at a time when black and brown voter enthusiasm is low, who does that hurt and in which states inyou look at florida, look at north carolina, looking at michigan, that's what the 2024 candidate really have to map out. >> and you look at the polls and how tight it is between trump and biden right now, you know, when you have a candidate like jill stein throwing their hat in the ring, how does that impact the math? i also want to look at your party after the debate last night. let's look at some