this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. today on the program we'll bring you the latest from the middle east with jeremy dimon who was in gaza yesterday. then one of the burning questions of the war, who will run gaza when it's over? i'll talk to the former foreign minister of the palestinian authority nasser al kidwa. will iran get more involved in the conflict than it is? the longtime middle east reporter and analyst will weigh in, and finally, exactly a year from today, americans will elect their next president. the 2024 race is top of mind for my guest, the ever so politically incorrect bill maher host of hbo's "real time," but first, here's my take. israelis are understandably horrified by the october 7th hamas attacks on their country. the resulting sense of trauma has fueled the desire for prime minister benjamin netanyahu calls mighty vengeance. but intense emotionals often make difficult to think about the implications of one's actions. watching israel's growing military operation in gaza, i am reminded of another invasion by another right-wing israeli government also in response to terror attacks and how it ended which was very different from israel's hopes. in 1982, the main palestinian group, the plo, as well as some others had set up base in beirut and controlled parts of lebanon bordering israel and they had been fighting continually against the israeli defense forces and the likud party with ariel sharon as defense minister decided to launch an invasion to root out once and for all all the plo's infrastructure in lebanon and drive it out of the country altogether. to do this effectively israel allied itself with lebanon's christian militias, one faction of many in multisectarian lebanon after wiping out the plo, they hoped to install a christian-dominated government in debeirut. the invasion was big and bloodied, and israel attacked with almost 80,000 troops and more than 1,200 tanks. by one estimate more than 17,000 people in lebanon were killed and more than 30,000 injured. in the end, israel did achieve its goal of expanding the plo from lebanon, but the cost was a brutal escalation of violence which produced a horrific tragedy. a militia allied with israel and operating in a zone that israel controlled, massacred hundreds, perhaps thousands of civilians including many women, children and elderly people in the palestinian refugee camps of greater long term significance, israel's invasion galvanized non-christian forces in the country and helped create the iranian-backed shiite backed hezbollah. since then has bell onna has been a threat to israel's security. hamas claims to have fired 5,000 rockets in israel. hezbollah has an estimated 150,000. the lesson is surely that war often has outcomes very different from those imagined at the outset. in many ways, the tensions in the middle east today are the unintended consequences of another invasion. the iraq war of 2003. that conflict toppled the sunni-led government of saddam hussein turning iraq into a shia-led country whose ruling elite had deep ties to iran. this then rattled the gulf arabs or sunnis and israel bringing them closer together and that burgeoning alliance threatened the survival and strength of palestinian extremist groups like hamas which decided to burn the house down and of course, the american invasion created al qaeda in iraq which was the precursor to isis. y is what can israel do? as the university of chicago robert notes, careful studies of terrorism suggest the only way to create lasting damage to terrorists is to combine typically in a long campaign of years sustained selective attacks against identified terrorists with political operations that drive wedges between the terrorists and the local populations from which they come. he suggests that alongside a military response israel should present some pathway to a palestinian state. retired general david petraeus who masterminded the surge in iraq who defeated the insurgents and terrorist groups estimated that separating the general population from the terror group is key. in addition, he adds, you have to offer the population something, some hope for a better future. in his and andrew roberts' new book "conflict" they attribute the surge as to purely military ones. israel is not following petraeus' strategy. they are an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 hamas fighters in gaza. in a place where the population of more than 2 million, about half of which is children, as best we can tell, gazans have had mixed views towards lahamas. it mounted a coup in 200 1k37 has ruled since then with an iron, islamic first, but as gazans suffered a cruel siege that has blocked water and fuel to all 2 million residents and experiencing hourly bombardment, utsch whatting thousands of civilian deaths, they could well r rally around hamas and it's what a counter terrorism aims for. israel is feeling deeply vulnerable and a vulnerability made worse by the appalling rise of antisemitism including the united states, but it is worth reflecting on whether policies forged in anger and retribution yield lasting gains. israel invaded lebanon and got hezbollah. it had the palestinian in the west bank which strengthened hamas. i don't know what this current campaign in the long run produce, but i fear it will not be good for israel or the palestinians. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week and let's get started. ♪ ♪ this weekend marks four weeks since hamas' stunning surprise attack on israel and one week since israeli officials announced a second stage of war had begun with an extensive ground operation in gaza. yesterday, cnn's jeremy dimon went into gaza on an idf embed. i should note that journalists embedded with the idf in gaza operate under the observation of israeli commanders on the field and are not permitted to move unaccompanied within the gaza strip. under condition to enter gaza under idf, they are to release footage for review prior to publication. cnn has agreed to these terms in order to provide a limited window into israel's operations in gaza. jeremy joins me now. welcome, jeremy. let me ask you, most of what we've seen about what's going on has been aerial footage and a few iphone footage. you actually went in there. describe to us what it looks like because just the reports are that the bombing has been more intense than anything the united states did in iraq or afghanistan. what did you see when you went in? this was a limited view into what is happening in gaza, but it was still an opportunity for us to get a better sense of where the israeli military is positioning itself, how they are positioning themselves and to see some of the destruction around us inside the gaza strip. we went in in armored personnel carriers with israeli troops into the gaza strip. we were overlooking gaza city from this position from where we were about a kilometer into the gaza strip and all around us in this area, the area was effectively rubble. demolished by israeli air describes, but there was one building where israeli troop his positioned themselves and they said it was the home of former hamas sympathizers and they said they found multiple hamas tunnels all around this position, but certainly all of the area around it was effectively reduced to rubble and these israeli forces, what they were trying to show us was both the extent of the positioning inside the gaza strip. we could see gaza city from this position. they said that the closest contact line with hamas fighters was about 100 meters away and during our visit there we could very much get a sense of both the firmness of the israeli position and the fact that they have control certain areas above ground, but also the very tenuous nature of those positions. as we were at this base for an hour's time, we could see fighters and israeli soldiers all around us. we heard the bullets and the crackle of a bullet whizzing by us several times over our heads as we were standing on the rooftop of this command post effectively and you could hear rocket-propelled grenades and short-range missiles being fired by israeli forces in the area and the armored personnel we were in would make multiple stops and to look around for potential hamas fighterses and that is ultimately one of the biggest challenges that these forces are going to face going forward. they have tried to destroy all of the hamas tunnels that they will find and they know so many more remain. already, fareed, israeli forces have been ambushed multiple times by hamas fighters using these tunnels and they know in particular that if they decide to go into northern gaza they will face a real acute and ambush by hamas fights are in very dense and bloody combat. >> jeremy, thanks for that terrific reporting. stay safe. next on gps, as israel assaults the combat, and i will ask nasswar kidwa about what could come next. israeli officials have made clear the goal in gaza is to wipe out hamas, even if they achieved this goal what was less clear with what comes next, who will leave the gaza strip in its aftermath, for a palestinian perspective on this, i am joined by nassar al kidwa. he served as foreign minister and represented the palestinian organization at the u.n. in addition, he is the nephew of the late yasser arafat, the palestinian authority's first president. welcome on the show, mr. kidwa, tell me first, you wrote an essay in "the economist" staying this explosion in gaza was inevitable. briefly explain, what do you mean? >> well, absolutely, because what we see now is not frankly a war by israel against hamas. >> prime minister al sudani has made very clear his condemnation of attacks directeted threats a our people and his determination to do what's necessary to make sure that that doesn't happen. so we had a good, as i said, candid, important conversation, more broadly we're working very closely to make sure the escalation does is not spread to other places whether here or elsewhere in the region, this is a very vital and urgent work of american diplomacy and that's what we've been engaged in throughout this trip. happy to take a few questions. [ inaudible question ] >> based on your conversations with israel on friday and with arab leaders yesterday and today do you share the president's optimism? why hasn't a deal been agreed to yet and how do you get around israel's categorical rejection of any kind? do you like this deal that many people seem to think is a modest step? >> first, as we said, following my conversations with the prime minister and with the israeli government, this is a process, israel raised an important question about humanitarian pauses can work. we've got to answer questions and dakotaly that and they will work together and including today to work through the specifics, the practicalities of these pauses and second, it's important that the pause advance a number of things and one of them is hostages. we are intensely focused, the united states, israel and every other country that has one of its citizens being held hostage by hamas to bring them home. now, it's important that as we're engaged in pursuing humanitarian pause, this could be something that advances to get the hostages back and that we're committeded to doing the government of israel and other partners in the region especially getting more how many an t humanitarian assistance to people that need it in gaza. when we had conversations three weeks ago it was a process to get that moving, but we had a commitment to do that. since then, we've trucks moving and we've had 100 trucks a day, but it's grossly insufficient and now we're working on raising that significantly so that more aid in a sustained way gets into palestinians who need it. there again, humanitarian pause can help advance that and create an environment in which we can do as much as possible for people who so desperately need the assistance. >> yesterday the arab leaders said nothing short of a total cease fire would be accessible. humanitarian pause would be a reasonable compromise? >> everyone would welcome a humanitarian pause, no doubt about that. there are different views including the question of a cease fire, but there's no doubt from my conversations with all of our colleagues who were in amman yesterday that everyone welcomed the humanitarian pause because it could advance things that we were all trying to accomplish including getting hostages back and getting more assistance into gaza including getting people out of gaza. citizens from other countries who seek to leave. we've had important progress there in recent days. there are also real complications that come along with it. we continue to work with them. in each of these, the humanitarian pauses could make a positive difference. >> thank you very much for taking the question. >> washington post. question about each of your visits today. here in iraq, what kind of steps did you talk about the prime minister and specific steps that they can take as a government to try to reduce the militia attacks and attempted attacks on u.s. forces here, and looking back at ramallah, you've said you have a view for the palestinian authority to have a potential governance role in gaza. i wanted to ask what president abbas' view was on that today and if he's in favor. why do you think that's a good idea given the loweview of the palestinian authority? >> first with regard to iraq. prime minister al sudani has spoken out and he made an important statement about a week ago, october 23rd condemning these attacks and making clear the imperative that they stop and in addition, he is working with his own security forces and others to take necessary action to deal with these attacks and to seek to prevent them. so we talked about that. i can't get into specifics, but this is a matter of iraqi sovereignty. no country wants to have militia groups engaged in violent activity. that's clearly against the interest of iraq and its own sovereignty as well as against our interests. so i think we have a shared purpose and commitment in trying to make sure that these attacks don't happen and we also share the interest and the interest that's shared with virtually everyone in the region to make sure that the conflict in gaza doesn't spread to other places whether it's here or elsewhere in the region. so everyone is looking to take the necessary step, use their authority and use their influence to try to make sure that this stops and doesn't happen. with regard to the visit to ramallah and the palestinian authority, look, they and we are very focused on the day of even as we need to be thinking about the day after, and i think what's clear is that with regard to the day after, with regard to future gaza, the west bank, the palestinian views and the palestinian voices and the palestinian aspirations need to be at the center of that, and that's what we focussed on. the p.a. is playing a very important role right now in the west bank in trying to keep stability there. that's usually important because no one wants another front on the west bank or anywhere else and they're stepping up under very difficult conditions to do the necessary work, but if you project forward to the future, what we all agree is that in defining that future, in shaping that future for gaza and the west bank and ultimately for a palestinian state, palestinian voices have to be at the center of that. the palestinian authority is the representative of those voices. so it's important that it play a leading role. >> thank you. >> thanks. all right. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken there in baghdad on a surprise visit to baghdad reiterating how important it was while he's in the region to be in baghdad, to reaffirm, he said two things to reaffirm the commitment to iraq for security and human rights purposes and also to send a clear message to anyone threatening u.s. personnel in the region. don't do it. i'm quoting him, don't do it. he says the u.s. will take necessary steps to protect the u.s. personnel, military or civilian and this surprise visit comes on the heel says of a surprise visit earlier in the day to the west bank where he did meet with the palestinian president mahmoud abbas and you saw that he just gave a thumbnail sketch of what their goals were in that conversation. they are focused on the needs of right now and at the same time they talked about planning purposes to involve palestinian voices to be at the center of that especially when it comes down to the future of palestinian state. all right. well, priscilla alvarez is with us. white house reporter in rehoboth beach traveling with the president and cnn anchor and cnn analyst jim sciutto is in israel. to you first, priscilla. they're surprised with the two visits to the west bank as well as baghdad. the white house knew about this. what were the goals that the white house might have had in mind on this visit to the region in step with what the secretary of state just said? >> well, the white house doesn't want to be drawn into a wider, regional conflict. that was the resounding message from secretary of state antony blinken during his remarks is that this conflict not spread, not widen any further. this was a one-hour meeting or more than one-hour meeting that he had and part of it was receiving a securities briefing on u.s. facilities and talking about security in the region. we know that the defense department has placed assets closer to the region. this was always a message of deterrence, a show of force and that was part of this conversation that secretary of state antony blinken had while on the ground in baghdad, and of course, this comes on the heel of the shuttle diplomacy that he has done over the last several days to name some of the places he has visited and he went to israel, jordan, the west bank and cypress and after this, he heads to turkey. of course, all of this as the administration pushes for those humanitarian pauses which the secretary of state also talked about saying that that is the way forward to get more aid into gaza, to advance that assistance, but also to get hostages out, and of course, that comes as arab leaders who the secretary met with are calling for a cease fire. all of this underscoring the concerns from the white house as the conflict continues to unfold it is complicated. they are aware of that, and they are also aware of the fact according to cnn reporting that they have only week, not months until rebuffing pressure to call for a cease fire becomes untenable. so this, the secretary of state antony blinken, continuing this diplomacy and making these unannounced visits, but important visits to get the message across to leaders. >> and i wonder, priscilla, if you can speak to the white house's point of view on how it handles the issue of while the secretary of state, and the white house is pushing for a humanitarian pause and israel is pushing back saying it has the right to defend itself and will carry on with its military mission, yet the u.s. is willing to put its face, right? literally, right in the region to say they are there for peacekeeping purposes without disrupting the -- or inserting itself directly in the tensions, but isn't it doing just that? >> well, president biden himself went to israel as well, and all of it has been a show of support for israel and making clear that israel has a right to defend itself and that in doing so it needs to contain casualties and protect innocent civilians, but to your point, fred, this underscores again how complicated it is for the white house to navigate this as they show support for israel, but as simultaneously the global outcry intensifies over the dire humanitarian crisis in gaza, and secretary of state antony blinken also me