this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i am fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. today on the program, tensions and deaths mount in the middle east as the world watches and awaits israel's expected ground invasion of gaza. i'll talk to former prime minister ehud barack who is also one of israel's most decorated soldiers. we'll talk about fighting hamas, a potential ground invasion and whether a divided israel has been united by war. then retired general david petraeus led the american military's fight against insurgents in iraq, afghanistan and more. what lessons from those wars should israel take into its war on hamas. i'll ask petraeus and his co-author on a new book, andrew roberts. but first, here's my take. the crisis in the middle east has revealed an important reality about the world. while american influence may not be what it once was, it is still true that no other country can replace the u.s. as the pivotal player on the global stage, but to retain that influence it will need to act wisely and go further than it has yet done. consider how absent russia and china have been from this crisis. over the last few years, both powers have tried in various ways to inject themselves into the region. russia built up its links with israel, china helped build the resumpings of diplomatic ties between saudi arabia and iran and yet, since the gaza crisis broke, neither has been able to play any role in diffusing tensions or providing solutions. the united states, by contrast, has been actively engaged from the start. president biden's first order of business was to condemn hamas' terror attacks and stand in solidarity with israel. having done this eloquently, he has now shifted to giving them cautionary advice. he urged israel not to be consumed with rage and reminded them of the united states' response to 9/11, admitting that washington consumed with fear and anger made mistakes. one hopes israel is listening. the president is right. the u.s. made a series of disastrous decisions after 9/11 for which it is still paying a price. it rushed to build a big new bure bureaucracy for homeland security comprising hundreds of thousands of people and expanding two organizations and trampling on individual rights, adding to governmental secrecy and sanctioning what many would describe as torture. washington's military strategy was also flawed from the start. rather than focusing narrowly on the people who planned and executed 9/11, it adopted a vast and ambitious approach that in george bush's words made no distinction between the terrorists and those who harbor them. so the country went to war not just against al qaeda, but also against the taliban trying to ensure that the latter would never again rule afghanistan, a goal that entailed a 20-year war that america lost. and of course, it also went to war against saddam hussein in iraq. >> washington's response to 9/11, the wars, the bureaucracy and more has had a price tag by one estimate of $8 trillion. the lessons for israel are clear, a ground invasion into gaza is an emotional response to hamas' terror attack. israel is responding with something big and bold, demonstrating it can go beyond a tit for tat approach and do something dramatic, but is that wide? such a course would meier thealyways in the tunnels of gaza. it would produce more human tearian tragedies in gaza, fur further enraging those in gaza it turning opinion into israel. even if it wins, what would it have won? who will govern gaza? who will equip the battle in what will most certainly be an insurgency against its authority. no country will touch that tank so it would fall to israel. the most decorated soldiers and right-wing political figures ariel sharon chose to get out of gaza. the best response to it is not to lose your head. in the past, israel had often re responded to terror attacks by biding its time, tracking down those who planned and execute the mission and then killing them. that was its response to the 1972 munich chose to get out of gaza. the point of terrorism is to provoke an overreaction. the best response to it is not to lose your head. in the past, israel had often responded to terror attacks by biding its time, tracking down those who actually planned and executed the mission and then killing them. that was its response to the 1972 munich olympic attacks. if washington had approached al qaeda with a similarly strategic and targeted approach, the u.s. would be in a far better position today. in addition to his counsel of caution, biden should press the israeli government to provide some political pathway for palestinian aspirations. for decades, the united states under both democratic and republican administrations was seen as an effective broker between the two sides. palestinian officials trusted american diplomats like mark mendic, dennis ross because they worked tirelessly to find a path to a palestinian state. the u.s. pressed the plo to recognize israel, but it also pressed israelis to stop building settlements. all those efforts have petered out as palestinian leadership proved feckless and israel has been ruled by a series of right-wing governments that did not believe in a two-state solution and have increased settlements and have turned a blind eye to the condition of palestinians. these are ideal conditions for hamas which argues that there is no non-violent negotiated solution and that acts of terror are the only option. this is all a tall order for american diplomacy, but the alternative is to let this crisis fester which could easily result in violence that is even worse than what we are now seeing. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week. to the east, some 90 palestinians have been killed in the west bank since october 7th, many of them in settler attacks according to human rights groups. more than 700 palestinians have been arrested there including almost 500 who are affiliated with hamas according to the idf. on israel's west flank lies gaza where hamas is headquartered and where the death toll is now 4,500. on its border israel is massing troops and material and an idf spokesman said yesterday that the country's military is focusing on readiness for the next stage of its war. meanwhile, 28 trucks carrying food and medicine were able to transit into gaza yesterday by the rafah crossing from egypt. 15 more are set to cross today. >> joining me now from amman, jordan, is cnn's nara basher. tell us something about the humanitarian agency in gaza, because this is a trickle of what would be needed to keep these people alive. >> absolutely. a trickle is certainly the best way to describe it fareed. we haven't seen that influx of aid that is so desperately needed inside the gaza strip. as you mentioned there, 15 trucks have been moved toward the crossing area seen by the cnn teams toward the rafah border on the egyptian side and they've passed and crossed into the gaza strip and of course, there is a huge amount of international pressure on getting aid into those inside gaza. we know that the civilian death toll is mounting. we know that hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced and this is all being exacerbated by the ongoing siege, no fuel, water, food or electricity is getting in, and we've heard the warnings from the aid groups on the ground. we've heard the warnings from the medical teams on the ground who are struggling to continue to provide crucial medical support during this siege and now, of course, we've had the warnings from the united nations saying what we are witnessing now is a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in gaza. we have the ongoing siege of no food, water, fuel or electricity is getting in, and we've heard the warnings from the aid groups on the ground. we've heard the warnings from the medical teams on the grounds who are struggling to continue to provide crucial medical support during this siege and now, of course, we've had the warnings from the united nations saying that what we are witnessing now is a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in gaza. we heard earlier today from the u.n.'s world food program. they are appealing for $74 million to support their relief efforts over the next 90 days. there is a huge appeal for international support and we have already seen numierous countries preparing aid and getting it across appears to be the key issue at this stage. we heard from king abdullah of jordan which has been amongst those countries with aid to travel, and he spoke about the need to get aid to gaza and the double standard that the world is seeing when it comes to providing the human itarian aid to gaza. >> anywhere else, it would be condemned and the accountability would be enforced immediately and unequivocally and has been done before, recently in another conflict, but not in gaza. >> we have seen that outpouring of condemnation from leaders particularly in the middle east and we have seen that reaction and protests and solidarity with the palestinian people. earlier today my team and i spoke to palestinian families and palestinian refugee families who have lived in jordan all their lives and still have family members inside the gaza strip. he said they're checking them every hour and what they're hearing from their families, they lack, electricity and running out of food and running of water and that's it. fareed? >> thank you, nada, great reporting. stay safe. next on gps, i speak with one of israel's most decorated soldiers, former prime minister ehud barack. i ask him about the potential ground invasion when we come back. as israel's military masses on its border with gaza ahead of an expected ground invasion, i want to bring in someone uniquely qualified to talk about idf strategy. upon retiring from the idf in 1995 lieutenant general ehud barack was israel's most decorated soldier. he would go on to serve his country as defense minister and prime minister. as prime minister he led israel through the second intifada of palestinian uprising and he oversaw the massive ground operation in gaza against hamas in 2009. ehud barack joins me now from tel aviv. prime minister barack, let me begin by asking you about this siege. do you believe it is militarily necessary to have such a dramatic cutoff of water, food, fuel which means hospitals can't operate. i don't recall when the united states have faced insurgencies in iraq that they ever imposed this kind of complete siege of a civilian population. is it militarily necessary, do you think? >> it's not the utmost important element, but it is part of it and i don't believe that there is a major crisis in gaza. basically whoever lives in the new camps, tent camps started by the anwar we'll get the convoys through the humanitarian corridor and would not let other gaza feel empty of medical materials for the hospital and so on. so it's -- it's important, but it's not the most important element. >> tell me about the goal. the netanyahu government has said the goal of the strategy is to destroy hamas. do you believe that's possible? >> yeah. i think that the goal should be to eliminate any military capability of hamas and its capacity to win over the gaza strait. we do not intend to erase the ideology and the wishes of doing so in members of hamas and all around the world. the muslim brotherhood in turkey and some people in qatar, we cannot have the hamas military operator in gaza and we can do it. of course, it cannot be completed from thes a. it will need a massive ground operation with thousands, probably tens of thousands of boots on the ground. >> the biden administration is, from what best we can tell, cautioning israel to be careful not to go in too big, too -- to kind of devastate gaza completely. again, you've done this. is it possible or is the idea going to have to go in in massive numbers, go door to door, tunnel to tunnel, building to building. >> look, i would say i never use the word in military affairs, but i would say that the 90+ percent that we'll see in the coming days major invasion into the gaza strip. it would take even to take the part of the gaza strip would take some time and probably two weeks and three weekses and to claim the physical and the human results that hamas might take many weeks or several months before it's completed and we are aware, we do not intend to stay forever and the whole operation has to face four different constraints and one is the hostages and the other is it would spread much wider to hezbollah and how to manage the dialogue with international law and we are committed to the international law and we are fully aware that our universal support and legitimacy will erode a long time in the numbers of people who are citizens and who will grow in spite of the fact that the reason is -- and the fact that hamas coerced them into becoming kind of human shields. we are aware of this constraint and the next one is to whom we can pass the torch because we do not intend to stay there for years to come. so all these are interactive -- intertwined and interconnected kind of constraints. only those like the cabinet or the upper echelon of the military command who seeks in real time facing the data, the effects and the linkages that emerged and we cannot predict exactly how it will develop. >> let me just ask you about the question you raised and who will you pass this to? because it seems that whomever you try whether it's the arabs and the europeans and weather it's the palestinian authority in the west bank, they are not going to want to come into gaza on the back of israeli tanks. so how do you solve that problem? >> well, i will tell you an anecdote in 2008, as you mentioned between one of those rounds that ended with a certain understanding and hamas made it by egypt and giving relative calmness for a year and a half and two years. in one of them it is sort of the same and why not get rid of hamas at all and pass it to someone so it approached mubarak and why don't you eliminate hamas military capabilities and you can withdraw with no condition from day one. after three weeks it was easier at that time and you would organize a multinational arab force led by you and probably -- whatever soldier and you take it for a very short period, you will bring back to the place the originally recognized on the place which is the sof rentee and the viewers might forget it and we gave gaza to the palestinian authority and they were removed from power and a violent coup d'etat by hamas. no, no, no, barack, you conquered in 60 and 70 years old and i will never, ever put my hands back into it and they would go to abu mazen and i do not want to make a long story short. abu mazen told me, basically, i cannot see coming back into the gaza strip. i didn't like the answer, but i cannot tell you that didn't carry certain logic into it, but it was 15 years ago now after we have another 15 years of peace with egypt and jordan and after we have the abraham accords just two and a half weeks ago we already discussed the trilateral deal with the united states. so the arabian and israel and hamas pointing to the timing of the attack that they prepared for more than a year now in order to torpedo exactly this trilateral deal which is perceived by them and ignoring the palestinian and israel. basically, when you think it is this way, probably what was impossible in 2018 might be possible now backed by the qatari or saudi financial kind of support and backed by the arab league and the u.n. security council resolution. they can take it and keep it quiet for a few months after we leave and bring back the palestinian sovereignty. >> we have to take a break. when we come back, stay with me, barak. i will ask ehud barak whether the peace plan he proposed between israelis and palestinians so many years ago is you in a distant dream or is it something that can still be revived when we come back. from chrome to duckduckgo. duckduckgo is a browser you download to your mobile and desktop devices. unlike chrome, the duckduckgo browser has privacy built-in. it comes with a private alternative to google search, which doesn■t spy on your searches, and it blocks cookies and creepy ads. and there's no catch. it's free. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you around. join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on mobile and desktop today. in july of 2000, president bill clinton welcomed israeli prime minister ehud barak and palestinian leader yasir arafat to his presidential retreat at camp david. their aim was to end the decades-long conflict once and for all. after two weeks they appeared tent liezingly close to a historic deal until the palestinians pulled out and talks broke down. later that year, violence erupted across the region to begin a palestinian uprising known as the second intifada. by then, prospects of a lasting peace were long gone. back with me, one of the key players from that summit, ehud barack. prime minister barak is that dream of a two-state solution, you know, just a complete fantasy at this point? i mean, i think about the map that clinton proposed right at the end, the so-called clinton parameters which i know comes from dennis ross and was not accepted by either side, but you know, it gives you a sense of the possibility of the rational solution here. the palestinians got in that map which was not accepted, but it was close to what was being offered. 93%, 94% of what they had, is all that dead with this wave of settlements? >> one more thing, if you don't know which war you want to -- those who say if you have a headwind wind you have to zig-zag toward this objective. i never lose eye contact with this vision. it's not about dreams. it is about the vision for the future which is needed for israel not because of justice for the palestinians because our own future security and identity, but there is a great debate in israel. the other side of the political map led by netanyahu and these two guys that he joined hands with, they have a different. they want one state. they want to block the whole thing. in a way, the foundation of this country over the last two weeks -- and the strategy by netanyahu could be summarized in the sensetence is an asset and e palestinians are a liability and the other way around. why this? because hamas is still alive and kicking, no one can argue with us, start negotiation with the palestinians, since we can easily, the government can easily say abu mazen does not control even half of his own people and with hamas, no one will require from us to negotiate with the organization, so basically, the indirect way to block the possibility of two states. so i -- it's not the time to deal with it because we have to unite and first of all, defeat hamas on the ground. later on there will come a day when we can take five, 15 and it is more than 20 or 50 years. at the end, the time will come to make an agreement that will come at a certain point, and you will need magnifying glass to see the difference between what was on the table and what will be concluded and after the deal will strike, no been can explain why the hell it took so long and needed to bury so many people on both sides. >> finally, and quickly, prime minister barak, you said benjamin netanyahu is to blame for the greatest failure in israeli history. can he survive as prime minister after this failure? >> you know, if you ask the people, they will tell you no. you know, he got the trust and the mandate to build a government some ten months ago or a little bit more. he -- the trust evaporated during the 7th of october, totally. no one trust especially with these machines in his government. if you look at the polls that were passed in the last week, you will find 70% of israeli public warns netanyahu to israel. half of them are admittedly and the others say it's the end of the war and they have a wall, and three weeks. the longest conflict in the last generation five years ago was less than two months. so in two months let's bite our lips and fight and put it on the shelf, but when you start to think about the long wall and it is as he mentioned many months, many years or more than a year and this is painted in a different way. i don't believe that the public trusts netanyahu to lead this -- this war. everyone is happy that the two opposition leaders who both happen to be chief of staff of the armed forces and one of them, gantz, minister of defense and it makes people feel more secure that irresponsible decisions won't be made, but having said that, people won't expect accountability. i am sorry to tell you that there is no hebrew word for accountability. think of the reason for it, but it's time to demand accountability and i think that, you know, everyone tells you it's over. it is not over. netanyahu is focused on releasing himself and when we call the poison machine that's blaming others of being responsibilities and, woirking 24/7 and they're against the army leadership and against the intelligent and everyone is responsible except for the man at the top. >> ehud barack, pleasure to have you on, sir. i hope we can have you on again. thank you. next up, david petraeus and andrew roberts on lessons for insurgencies everywhere. in his almost four decade-long military career retired general david petraeus named insurgency mainly in iraq and afghanistan. when do his insights from his extraordinary career tell us about this war between israel and hamas. david petraeus joins me now alongside the historian andrew roberts. the two are co-authors of the new book "conflict. the evolution of warfare from 1945 to ukraine." andrew is of course barron roberts of belgravia. let me start with you. this issue of destroying hamas, is that a realistic goal? >> i think it is a realistic goal, but it is going to be exceedingly difficult. we've seen how long it takes to clear cities nine months for the iraqi security forces to clear out of mosul, and idf is much better and much more capable, but still it is going to be very, very tough and how they do it is very important. we had a question on the wall always will this operation take more bad guys off the street than it creates by its conduct and you have to be careful that the answer to that will be yes and there has to be a vision for the future. they can accomplish this mission, but then keep in mind that the definition of detroy and military doctrine terms in accomplishing his mission without reconstitution. so whatever it is that follows has to ensure that this cannot be reconstituted and hamas and the islamic jihad will try to come back so whatever it is that takes over from the israelis and they have to determine that urgently. ehud barak was absolutely rid on that, but they are not going to just going to do humanitarian assistance and they'll have to conduct a counter insurgency campaign to keep hamas from coming back. >> to me what was so successful, is you brokered a reconciliation between the should shias and su. >> war on them and it's to make their life better. if they were to reject hamas their lives will be better. there has to be that. we said to the sunnis, if you'll break with al qaeda and iraq, support first and then the government and then later the same with the iranian-supported shia militia, let's strip you away and we defeated the other elements and the militia that remained and also al qaeda and iraq and the sunni and make their lives better. if they will reject hamas their lives will be better. by the way, the same for those in the west bank and there has to be that. we said to the sunnis, if you'll break to al qaeda and iraq and support us first and then the government and then later and the same with the iranian-supported militia and we defeated the other elements and the militia that remained and also al qaeda in iraq and the sunni insurgent groups. so that vision is crucial. and i think ehud barak had that exactly right, as well. >> a quick thought on mhezbolla before i go to you. >> do you think hezbollah will launch a serious attack from the north? >> i don't think they want to do that, but the pressure will grow as the damage and destruction inevitably. there will be civilian casualties. urban combat is fiendishly difficult, and i can't imagine a context that is more difficult than this one, hundreds of miles of tunnels, suicide bombers, enemy that doesn't wear uniforms, uses human shields, civilians and of course, the over 200 hostages that are still there, so that's going to be very, very challenging for them, and again, you have to have this vision that's going to try to separate the people from hamas. again, also in the west bank, as well. hezbollah, though, got hammered in 2006, much worse than we realized at the time as we did several occasions and they did the occasional attacks and the rest of that, i don't think they want to launch all 150,000 rocket which is would be devastating for israel and it would be more devastating for hezbollah and they know that. >> operationally, it's also very good for israel to be able to promise the palestinian arabs that they will be able to go back to gaza because then you could physically also separate them from the hamas that you're trying to fight in gaza history. >> lots of history that bears that out. >> historically, you talk about militia being the successes of counter insurgency. >> the way it works is that able to gain independence that was immensely important in winning what was said at the time the hearts and minds. >> that was the phrase. >> and may matter and they matter here, as well. >> so the general coined that phrase, and it worked, and it wasn't just in malaysia. it also worked in the oman campaign where they were able to offer progress, and actual, physical, agricultural, medical progress and that is something that could be an important part to play there. >> all right. stay with us. next up, i'm going to talk to general petraeus and lord roberts about the other major conflict in the war right now, ukraine which we might have forgotten about, but is still going on, when we come back. we are going to pivot to the world's other major war in ukraine. the long-awaiting ukrainian counteroffensive stretching into the fifth month and many in the west remain concerns that it is lagging as winter approaches, what hope does ukraine have against its much bigger more powerful adversary. we're back with general david petraeus and great historian andrew roberts. both of you have been to kyiv and to ukraine and you were there just a few weeks ago. the conventional wisdom that the ukraine counter offensive has not gone as well as planned and the russians are fighting back better, harder, smarter. what could you tell us about all this? >> well first of all, one of the key factors i'm watching for do the russias crack and crumble at some point. no plan survived contact with the enemy an the ukrainian plan did not. they had to adjust to minefields are deeper, and so they've gained 150 meters a days. the pressure has been unrelenting on the russians, and we have to see where that leads. they're going to fight all winter and have stated that publicly. beyond that we tend to overlook what they've done against crimea. the russian base is there, the navy base of sevastopol has to be abandoned. ukraine hit the actual headquarters of the black sea fleet during their command and staff meeting. they're reducing the capabilities of the airfield. this all takes time, though. what they're trying to do is reduce the logistical capacity to support these forces so at some point in time they might achieve that kind of breakthrough. i think it's accurate to say that the hopes for the counteroffensive have not been fully realized. it's not over and they're still driving to be able to cut the key line of xhugs case as it comes in from russia along the southeast and southern coast. >> andrew, when i look at russian history, the thing that worries me is they seem to be able to fight very long wars with large numbers of casualties. >> they do when they're on the defensive. actually they're not that good on the offensive. russian soldiers recognize this is an offensive war into somebody else's country. historically there it hasn't been such a happy prospect. the other thing, of course, something that comes out very strongly for our book is how important morale is. the morale of the army has taken a very serious bloody nose and also doesn't necessarily see any quick way to victory. it's going to be less than the ukrainian army which has not the same morale it did at the early stages of the war, but historically at least, a level that can win a victory. >> in a sense, is the ukrainian situation a little bit like, say, the algerians. the algerians trying to get independent. french say no -- the french by some accounts -- has president biden been handling ukraine well? >> i think he together with congress have led the effort much better certainly than vladimir putin expected, and i think quite impressively. $44 billion worth of assistance is a very substantial amount. we do need to continue to do more. i hope congress can come together on that issue. there have been decisions i felt that should have been made more rapidly. some of the capabilities that ukraine did not have during the summer might have been there, might have helped then more than marginally i think. by and large, i think the u.s. has led well, effectively, kept nato together, kept the western world together, kept russia from driving a wedge between europe and north america, and also led the effort on the personal, economic and financial sanctions and export controls, and now going after the sanctions evaders pretty effectively as well. >> the russian strategy clearly, as far as i can tell, is to wait until november 2024, hope that trump gets elected, hope they can cut a deal where trump will essentially sell the ukrainians down the river. what do you say about that? >> well, i think it's a concern what the outcome of the election is, without question. will someone be elected who might actually not support this effort? which i think is as right versus wrong as anything in recent memory except until what happened on 7 october, which was also absolutely horrific. keep in mind when we think about that, that would be the equivalent of america having lost 50,000 innocent civilians on 9/11 as opposed to the nearly 3,000 we lost. >> final question, andrew. this is an extraordinary book. how did the two of you write it across the atlantic? >> well, we got together immediately after the russian invasion and decided we were going to write this book, and we divvied up the chapters by saying -- i said that david would work on all the chapters of the countries he's invaded and vietnam, and i did the rest. >> all right. must have been lots of emails. >> dozens. >> amazing, amazing book. >> thank you, fareed. >> thanks to all of you for being part of my pram this week. i will see you next week. >> thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. from chrome to duckduckgo. duckduckgo is a browser you download to your mobile and desktop devices. unlike chrome, the duckduckgo browser has privacy built-in. it comes with a private alternative to google search, which doesn■t spy on your searches, and it blocks cookies and creepy ads. and there's no catch. it's free. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you around. join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on mobile and desktop today.

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