this is "gps" the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. today on the program, tensions and deaths mount in the middle east as the world watches and awaits israel's expected ground invasion of gaza. i'll talk to former prime minister ehud barack who is one of the most decorated soerms. we'll talk about fighting hamas, a potential ground invasion, and whether a divided israel has been united by war. then, retired general david petraeus led the american military fight against insurgents in iraq and afghanistan and more. what lessons from those wars should israel take into its war on hamas. i'm ask pet rayous and his co-author, andrew roberts. but first here is my take. the crisis in the middle east has revealed an important reality about the world. while american influence may not be what it once was, it is still true that no other country can replace the u.s. as the pivotal player on the global stage. but to retain that influence, it will need to act wisely and go further than it has yet done. consider how absent russia and china have been from this crisis. over the last few years both powers have tried to inject themselves into the region. russia build up links with israel, and china helped facilitate the diplomatic ties between saudi arabia and iran. and since the crisis has broke, neither has played any role in providing solutions. the united states by contrast has been actively engaged from the start. president biden's first order of business was to condemn the hamas terror attacks and stand in solidarity with israel. having do an this eloquently, he has shifted to giving them cautionary advice. he urged them not to be consumed with rage and reminded them of the united states's response to 9/11, admitting that washington consumed with fear and anger, made mistakes. one homes israel is listening. the president is right. the united states made a series of disastrous decisions for which it is still paying a price. it rushed to build a new bureaucracy for homeland security comprising hundreds of thousands of people and two dozen organizations. it expands executive power dramatically, trampling on individual rights adding to governmental secrecy and sanctioning what many would describe as torture. washington's military strategy was also flawed from the start. rather than focusing narrowly an owe the people who planned and executed 9/11, it had opted a vast and ambitious approach that in george bush's words made no distinction between the terrorists and those who harbor them. so the country went to war against al qaeda and the taliban trying to ensure that the latter would never again rule afghanistan. a goal that entailed a 20-year war that america lost. and of course, it also went to war against saddam hussein in iraq. washington's response to 9/11, the wars, the bureaucracy and more has had a price tag by one estimate of $8 trillion. the lessons for israel aclear. a ground invasion into gaza is an emotional response to hamas's terror attack. israel is responding with something big and bold. demonstrating that it could go beyond a tit-for-tat approach and do something dramatic. but is that wise? such a course will meyer the alleyways and tunnels of gaza and will produce more humanitarian tragedies in gaza further enraging arab countries and turning world opinion against israel. and even after this and it wins, what will it have won. who will govern gaza after this and who will occupy the strip and battle an insurgency against its authority. no arab country would touch that task so it will fall to israel. there was a reason that one of israel's deck or atsed soldiers and right wing political figures aerial sherron chose to get out of gaza. and the overeaction, and the best response is not to lose your head. in the past israel had responded to terror attacks by bidding its time, tracking down those who actually planned and executed the mission, and then killing them. that was its response to the 1972 munich olympic attacks. if washington had approached al qaeda with a similarly strategic and targed approach, the u.s. would be in a far better position today. in addition to his counsel of caution, they should appreciate for some pathway for palestinian pathways. democrat and republican administrations was seen as an effective broker between the two sides. palestinian officials trusted american diplomats like martin endic and dennis ross and edward dereggan because they worked to find a path to a palestinian state. the u.s. pressed the plo to renounce terror and recognize israel. but it also pressed the israelis to stop building settlements. all of those efforts have petered out as palestinian leadership proofed feckless and there is a series of right-wing governments who do not believe in a two-state solution have increased settlements and turned a blind eye to the condition of palestinians. these are ideal conditions for hamas which argues there is no nonviolent solution and acts of terror are the only option. this is all a tall order for american diplomacy. but the alternative is to let this crisis fester, which could easily result in violence that is even worse than what we are now seeing. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week. and let's get started. ♪ israel is in battled to its west and east and north. to the north, hezbollah is trading fire with israel. prime minister netanyahu said this morning that it will be devastating for lebanon if hezbollah joins the war. to the east, some 90 palestinians have been killed in the west bank since october 7th. many of them in setler attacks according to human rights groups. more than 700 palestinians have been aest ares including 500 affiliated with hamas. on the left flank is gaza where the death toll is now 4,500. on its border israel is massing troops and material and an idf spokesperson said yesterday that the country's military is focusing on readiness for the next stage of its war. mean while, 28 trucks carrying food and medicine were able to transit into gaza via the rafah crossing from egypt. 15 more are set to cross today. joining me now from aman, jordan, is cnn's nada bashear. tell us about the condition in gaza. because the numbers of trucks from everything i've seen, this is a trickle of what would be needed to keep these people alive? >> absolutely, it is best way to describe it, fareed. we haven't seen that influx of aid that is so desperately needed inside of the gaza strip. as you mentioned there, 15 trucks have been moved towards the crossing area as seen on the ground toward the rafah border, on the egyptian side but they have yet to pass security clearance and cross into the gaza strip. but there is a huge amount of international pressure on getting aid into those inside of gaza. we know that the civilian death toll is mounting. and hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced an this is exacerbated by the ongoing siege of no fuel or water or food or electricity and we've heard the warnings on the ground from the medical teams on ground who are struggling to continue to provide crucial medical support during this siege. and now, of course, we've had the warnings from the united nations saying we're witnessing a him catastrophe unfolding in gaza. we heard from the world food program, they are appealing for $74 million to support their relief efforts over the next 90 days. there is a huge appeal for international support on this front. and we have already seen numerous countries stepping up, preparing aid to get to egypt, to cross in by the rafah border crossing. getting it across is the key issue at this taj. and we heard from king abdalla of jordan which has been amongst those countries to travel to egypt. he spoke very clearly at the cairo peace summit about the need to get aid in and the double standard when it comes to providing the humanitarian relief for gaza. take a listen to this statement. he said anywhere else attacking civilian infrastructure and starving an entire population of food water and electricity would be condemned and the accountability will be enforced immediately and unequivocally and it has been done before in another conflict but not in gaza and we have seen the outpouring of condemnation from world leaders an seen that reaction from the popular front as well. protests taking place, demonstrations in solidarity with the palestinian people. today my team and i spoke to palestinian families, refugee families who have lived in jordan all of their lives but still have family members in the gaza strip that they haven't been able to return to or haven't been able to meet with. they say they are checking in with them every hour and hoping they're still alive and what their hearing from families are they are struggling to go on with the lack of electricity, running out of food and water. it is a humanitarian catastrophe as said by the u.n. fareed. >> thank you nada. great reporting. stay safe. next on "gps", i spoke with one of israel's most decorated soldiers. former prime minister ehud barack. i'll ask him about the potential ground invasion when we come back. as israel's military masses on its border with gaza aled of an expected ground invasion, i want to bring in someone uniquely qualified to talk about idf strategy upon retiring from the idf in 1995, lieutenant general ehud barack was israel's most decorated soldier. he would go on to serve his country as defense minister and prime minister. he led israel through the second palestinian uprising and as defense minister he saw the ground invasion against hamas in 2009. he joins me now from tel aviv. let me begin by asking you about this siege. do you believe that it is militarily necessary to have such a dramatic cut-off of water, fuel, food, which means hospitals can't operate, i don't recall, you know, when the united states faced insurgencies in iraq, that they ever imposed this kind of complete siege of civilian population. is it militarily necessary, you think? >> it is not the utmost important element. but it is part of it and i don't believe that there is a major crisis in gaza, basically whoever went to the south and lives near the tent camps, started by the unwa, will get these convoys in the corridor and israel will not let other gaza fuel or empty of medical kind of materials for the hospital and so on. so, it is important but it is not the most important element. >> tell me about the goal, the netanyahu government has said the goal of their strategy is to destroy hamas. do you believe that is possible? >> yeah, i think that the goal should be to eliminate any military capability of hamas and in its capacity to win over the gaza strip. we do not intend to erase the ideology or the wishes and dreams of many members of hamas, and all around our world there is a botherhood and occupying turkey and in qatar, we could not wage the entity, but the operator or military operator in gaza ands the ruler of gaza, we could do it. of course it could not be completed from the air. it will need these massive ground operations with thousand, probably tens of thousands of boots on the ground. >> the biden administration is from what best we could tell cautioning israel to be careful not to go in too big, to kind of devastate gaza completely. again, you've done this. is that possible? or is the idea going to have to go in, in massive numbers, go door-to-door, tunnel to tunnel, building to building? >> look, i would say that i never use the the word inevitable in military affairs but i would say in 90% plus that we'll see a major invasion into gaza strip. it will take even the notion part of gaza strip will take some time. probably two weeks or three, it depends on what pace it will be won. but to clear it from the physical and the human resources of the hamas, it might take many weeks or several months before it is completed. and we are aware, we do not intend to stay there forever. the whole operation has to face a different constraint. one is the hostages, the other is the risk that it will spread into much wider conflict with hezbollah in lebanon, and others. it is how to manage this dialogue with international law. we are committed to the international law. and we are fully aware that our universal support and legitimacy will erode when the numbers of people who are citizens who are hit will grow. in spite of the fact that the reason for them being there is the fact that hamas coerced them into being kind of human shields. we're well aware of this constraint and the last one is the question to whom we could pass the torch because we do not intend to stay there for years to come. so, all of this are interactive, intertwined and interconnected kind of constraint. only those like the -- the war cabinet or the operation on the military command who sees it in real time, facing the data, the defects, and the leaks that emerge, we could not predict in advance how it will develop. >> and let me just ask you about the question that you raised. whom will you pass this to? because it seems to me that whom ever you try, whether it is the arab, whether it is europeans or the palestinian authority in the west bank, they're not going to want to come into gaza on the back of israeli tanks. so, how do you solve that problem? >> well, i would tell you an anecdote. in 2008, i was minister of defense between one of those rounds that usually ended with certain understanding with the hamas, they were given by egypt and in one of them i sought the same, why not get rid of the hamas and pass it to someone, so i approach mubarak and said why don't you -- once we eliminate hamas capabilities, you could demand from us to withdrawal with no condition from day one. after three weeks it was easier at that time, we will capitulate to your demand and you will organize a multi-national air ago force led by europe and whatever and you take it for a very short periods, three or six months, during which you will bring back to the place the originally internationally recognized order -- owner of the place which is the palestinian authority. your viewers might already forget it, but after the agreement, we gave gaza to the palestinian authority. they were removed from power through a violent coup de tat. i will never put my hands back into it. and if i don't want to cut a long story short, mubarak, they told me that basically i cannot afford coming back to power in the gaza strip sitting on israeli buy onnette. i didn't like the answer but i could not tell you that it doesn't carry certain logic into it. but it was 15 years ago now after we have another 15 years of peace with egypt and then jordan, after we have the abraham accord, just two and a half weeks ago, we already discussed the tri-lateral deal with the united states, so in a way it is suspect the hamas pointed the timing of the attack, which they prepare for more than a year now, in order to appeal to the tri-lateral deal which israel is perceived by them as ignoring the palestinians. so basically, when you think it is this way, what was impossible in 2018 is maybe possible now. backed by a qatari or saudi financial kind of support and backed by other and probably u.n. security council resolution and they could keep it quiet for a into months after we leave and then bring back the -- to take over. >> we have to take a break. when we come back, stay with me. i will ask ehud barack will the peace plan he proposed between israelis and palestinian so many years ago is now a distant dream or is it something that could still be revived? when we come back. is it possible my network could take my business to the next level? it is with comcast business. powering all your devices with gig-speed wifi. and you get fast downloads and uploads. pick it up! pick it up! oh we got this! because it's powered by the next generation 10g network. more speed for your business? it's not just possible. it's happening. get started for $59.99 a month for 12 months. plus, ask how to get an $800 prepaid card with a qualifying internet bundle. comcast business, powering possibilities. in july of 2000, bill clinten welcomed palestinian leadersas ear arafat to his presidential retreat at camp david to end the decades long conflict once and for all. after two weeks they appeared closed to a historic deal until the palestinians pulled out and talks broke down. later that year, violence erupted across the region to begin a palestinian uprising known as the second interfatah. by this pros ppects of a lastin peace was long gone. with me, ehud barack. prime minister, barack, is that dream, of a two-state solution, you know, just a complete fantasy at this point? i think about the map that clinton proposed right at the end, the so-called clint parameters which i know comes from dennis ross and was not accepted by either side. but it gives you a sense there was a possibility of a rational solution here. the palestinians got in that map, which was not accepted, but it was close to what was being offered. 93%, 94% of what they had. is all of that dead with this wave of settlements that have taken place in the last 20 years and palestinian, you know, the palestinian authority not having much credibility any way? >> look, it is not the right time to discuss it because we are now at war. and first of all, we're focused on eliminating the military capabilities of hamas and making it out of the picture in the gaza strip. but if you ask plea on the longer term, there is an old woman saying, if you don't know which boat, no wind will take you there and those who sail know if you have a head wind, you you have to zigzag. and it is not about dreams, it is about the vilsion for foughture which is needed for israel. not just because of justice for israel and but for our own security and identity but there is a great debate in israel, the other side of the political map led by netanyahu and these two masonic guys that he joined hands with, they have a different -- they want one state. they want to block those in a way that a foundation of this conflict, over the last two weeks, the strategy was taken by netanyahu in the last five years could be summarized in the sentence hamas is an asset and the palestinians are a liability. rather than the other way around. because why is this? because if hamas is still alive and kicking, no one could argue with us to start negotiations with the palestinian. since we can easily, the government to easily say they do not control even half of his own people and with hamas no one will require to negotiate with a terror organization. so basically it is an indirect way to block the possibility of two states. so, it is not the time to deal with it because we have to unite and defeat hamas on ground. later on, will come a day when we could say whether it take 5, 15, or 50 years. at end the time will come to make an agreement at a certain point. you will need a magnifying glass to see the difference between what was on table and what was concluded and a few years after a deal will be striked, no one could explain why the hell is took so long and needed to bury so many people on both sides. >> finally and quickly, prime minister, barack, you said benjamin netanyahu is to blame for the greatest failure in israeli history. could he survive as prime minister after this failure? >> you know, if you ask the people, they will tell you no. you know, he got the trust and mandate from -- to build the government, some ten months ago, a little bit more. the trustee vevaporated on the 7th of october. no one trusts, with the two in his government, and if you look at the pulse that were passed in the last week, you will find that 70% of israeli public wants netanyahu to resign. half of them wants him to resign immediately and others said at the end of the war. but in the mind they have israeli wars. six days war was one week. and a huge wars, three weeks. the longest conflict in the last generation, five years ago, was less than two months. so in the two months, let's bite or lips and fight and put it on the shelf. but when you start to see the long war that might take as you mentioned, many months, probably a few years or more than a year, this is paved in a different way. i don't believe that the public trusts netanyahu to lead these -- these wars. everyone is happy that the opposition leader who both happen to be chief of staff of the armed forces and one of them can't even -- minister of defense, that makes the people feel more secure. that irresponsible decisions won't be made. but having said that, people would expect accountability. i kind of am sorry to tell you that there is no hebrew word for accountability. think of the reason for it. but it is time to demand accountability and i think that you know everyone tells you oh, he's over. it is not over. netanyahu is focused on -- on relieving himself and what we call the poison machine that blaming others have been responsible, he's working 24/7 briefing against -- against the army leadership and the intelligence, everyone responsible except for the man at the top. >> ehud barack, pleasure to have you on, sir. i hope we could have you on again. thank you. next up, david petraeus and andrew roberts on lessons four insurgencies everywhere. in his almost four decade long military career, retired general david petraeus, what do his insights tell us about the new war between israel and hamas. he joins me now alongside the history orran andrew roberts, two are the authors of the book, "conflict, the evolution of warfare from 1945 to ukraine." . and david, let me start with you. this issue of destroying hamas, is that a realistic goal? >> i think it is a realistic goal. but it is going to be exceedingly difficult. we've seen how long it takes to clear cities, roughly the side of gaza city, nine months for the iraqi security forces to clear the islamic state out of mosul, as an example, with our assistance, idf is better but it is still very, very tough and how they do it is important. we had the question on the wall, will this operation take more bad guys off the street than it creates by its conduct. and you have to be careful that the answer to that is going to be yes. and there has to also be a vision for the future. they can accomplish this mission, but then keep in mind that the definition of destroy in military doctrine terms is render the enemy of incapable of accomplishing his mission without reconstitution. so whatever that follows, has to ensure that this could not be reconstituted. hamas and the jihad will try to come back. so whatever it is that takes over from the israelis, and vef to determine that urgently, ehud barack has right on that. but they're not going to just do humanitarian assistance and reconstruction. they have to conduct a counter insurgency to keep hamas from coming back. >> when you did the surge, one of things that seemed to me so successful in that post operation was you brokered a reconciliation between the sunnis and the shias politically. so do you need a political vision? >> very much so. there has to be a vision for people in gaza that distinguishes, very clearly, the war is not on them, but to make their lives better, if they reject hamas, their life will be better. by the way, same for those in the west bank. and again we said to the sunnis, if you break with al qaeda and iraq and support us and then later the same with the shia militia, and we defeated the other elements, militia that remains and also al qaeda and iraq and the sunni insurgent groups. so that vision is crucial. and i think ehud barack had that right as well. >> a quick thought on hezbollah before i go to you. do you think hezbollah will launch a serious attack from the north? >> i don't think they want to do that. but the pressure will grow as the damage and destruction -- there are going to be civilian casualties. urban combat is difficult and i condition imagine context that is more difficult than this one. hundreds of miles of tunnels. suicide bombers. enemy that doesn't wear uniforms. used human shields. civilians and of course the over 200 hostages that are still there. so that is going to be very, very challenging for them. and again, you have to have this vision that is going to try to separate the people from hamas, again also in the west bank as well. hezbollah, though, got hammered in 2006. much worse than we realized at the time. we reassessed it on several occasions. they'll do the occasional attacks and the rest of that. i don' i don't think they want to launch all 150 rockets which would be devastating for israel and more devastating for hooerz anz they know that. >> andrew -- >> it is also very good for israel to be able to promise the palestinian arabs that they will be able to go back to gaza because you could separate them from the hamas that you're trying to fight in gaza city. >> a lot in history bears that out. >> historically, you talk about militia being one of the great successes of counter insurgency. what do you draw as the key lesson. >> the way that malaysia works they were able to offer the people independence and later bim independent in 1957 and that was immensely important in winning what was said at the time, to be the hearts and minds -- >> that phrase was coined. >> yes. >> and they matter. and they matter here as well. >> so gerald temp coined that phrase and it worked. and it wasn't just in malaysia, it worked in the herman campaign where they were able to offer progress, physical educational, agriculture, medical progreg and that is something that could be an important part to play here. >> stay with us. next i'll talk to general pet rayous and lord roberts about the other major conflict in the world right now, ukraine. which we might have forgotten about but it is still going on. when we come back. we are going to pivot to the world's other major war in ukraine. the long awaiting ukrainian counter offensive stretching into the fifth month and many in the west remain concerns that it is lagging as winter approaches, what hope does ukraine have against its much bigger more powerful adversary. both of you have been to kyiv and to ukraine and you were there just a few weeks ago. the conventional wisdom that the ukraine counter offensive has not gone as well as planned and the russias are fighting back, better, harder, smarter. what could you tell us about all of this? >> well first of all, one of the key factors i'm watching for do the russias crack and crumble at some point. no plan survived contact with the enemy an the ukrainian plan did not, they have to adjust and the mine fieldings are deeper and so they've gained 150 meters aday as opposed to several meters if you get a break through. the pressure has been unrelentless on the russias and i think we need to see where that does lead. this is not just a summer and fall offensive, they're going to fight all winter and they've stated that. and beyond that, we tend to overlook what they've done against crimea, and the naval base has had to be evacuated because of the russian losses due to the very diabolically clever maritime drones that ukraine has developed. they hit the actual headquarters of the black sea fleet during their command staff meeting and reducing the capabilities of the airfield. this all takes time and they're trying to reduce the logistical capacity to support these forces so at some point in time again me might achieve that kind of breakthrough. but i think it is accurate to say that the hopes for the counter offensive have not been fully realized and it is not over and their still driving to cut the key line of communications from return along the southeast and southern coast. >> andrew, when i look at russian history, what worries me is they seem to be able to fight very long wars with very large number of casualties. >> they're do when they're on the defensive. but that no that good on the offensive. and this russian soldiers recognize that this is an offensive war. into somebody else's country and there it hasn't been such a ha happy pros peck. and something that comes out voe strongly from the book is how important the moral is and the moral has taken a very serious bloody nose and doesn't see any quick way to victory. it is going to be less than the ukrainian army which has still not the same kind of moral that it did at the early stages of this war, but still over historically, at least, at a level that can win a victory. >> in a sense, is the ukraine situation a little bit like say the algerians? they tried to get independence and the french say no, by some accounts killed a million algerians but they never gave up. >> that is right. and also, of course, the other thing you saw in that war was the use of torture and brutal viciousness which you're seeing with the way that the russians are treating ordinary ukrainian people and that has the effect of just enraging the population and in the sense helping its moral to want to push through to ultimately victory. >> has president biden been handling ukraine well in your -- >> i think he together with congress have led the effort much better than vladimir putin expected and i think what quite impressively, $44 billion worth of assistance is a very substantial amount. we do continue to do more. i hope congress could come together on that issue. there have been decisions that i felt might have been made for rapidly. some of the capabilities that ukraine did not have during the summer might have helped them more than marginally, i think. but by enlarge, the u.s. has led well,ectively, and kept nato together and the western world together and kept russia from driving a wedge between europe and north america and led the effort on the personal economic and financial sanctions and export controls an now going after the sanctions of evaders as well. >> the russian strategy clearly as far as i could tell is to wait until november '24, hope that trump gets elected and hope that they could cut a deal with trump that will sell the ukraines down the river. what do you say about that? >> well, i think it is a concern. what the outcome of the election is without question. will someone be elected who might not support this effort which is as right versus wrong as anything in recent memory until what happened on 7 october, which was also horrific. and keep in mind when we think about that, that would be the equivalent of america having lost 50,000 innocent civilians on 9/11 as opposed to the 3,000 that we lost. >> final question, andrew, this is extraordinary book. how did the two of you write it across the atlantic? >> well we got together immediately after the russian invasion and decided that we were going to write this book. and we divvied up the chapters by saying, i said, do you -- that david would work on all of the chapters of the countries he's invaded and vietnam and i did the rest. >> all right. must have meant a lot of emails. amazing book. >> thank you, fareed. >> and thank you to you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. from chrome to duckduckgo. duckduckgo is a browser you download to your mobile and desktop devices. unlike chrome, the duckduckgo browser has privacy built-in. it comes with a private alternative to google search, which doesn■t spy on your searches, and it blocks cookies and creepy ads. and there's no catch. it's free. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you around. join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on mobile and desktop today. today on