United states and around the world. Im Fareed Zakaria coming to you from new well start todays program with two of the worlds critical hot first, ukraine, where president zelenskyy admitted this week that the counteroffensive is difficult as western officials tell cnn that further decisive progress by kyiv is highly unlikely. So where does the war go from here . Then to niger where a Military Ju Junta Launcheded A Coup three days ago. That makes for a sixcountry belt of coups spanning 3,500 miles right across the african continent. Well tell you what you need to know about the startling trend. Also, are you amazed by the power of Artificial Intelligence . Well, wait until you hear about Quantum Computing. It will make todays a. I. Look like childs play. I talked to the famous physicist miccio kaku about what he sees as the real gamechanger. But first, heres my take. In only may 2023, it seemed obvious that the United States was going to face an unmanageable Border Crisis in the Previous Fiscal Year there were 2. 4 million apprehensions of people trying to enter the u. S. At the southern board. And their authorities are about to implement title 42 in 2020 that allowed them to swiftly expel migrants at the border as a pandemic prevention measure. Also had meant that temp ware, was there no crisis and the number of encounters with migrants at the Southern Border dropped by a third from 1,700 per day april to 1,400 per day in june, the latest available data. Why did this happen . It seems that the Biden Administrations plan worked. It put in place a serious of measures designed to deal with the impending problem. Chiefly, a stiff penalty for crossing the border illegally, deportation plus a fiveyear ban on any reentry, coupled with expanded ways to apply for legal asylum in the migrants home country. It was a welcome case of welldesigned policy making a difference. But this success does not change the fact that the u. S. Immigration system is broken. The crush at the Southern Border may be less than anticipated, but its still an influx and its effects are being felt across the United States. Texas overwhelmed by the numbers has famously bussed migrants to washington, d. C. And new york, but the truth is migrants have been crowding into many major American Cities on a scale that is breaking those Communities Capacity to respond. The New York Metropolitan Area has borne a huge burden. New york is housing more than 50,000 migrants and homeless facilities and this number will about double by 2025. He also estimates that the price tag for the city will be 12 billion over the next three years. Each year, that would be roughly twothird of what the city budgets for the new york police department. New york city is a magnet because after a 1979 lawsuit, it has based policy on the notion that every person entering the city has a right to shelter. In fact, this right is ambiguous, and if it exists it applies at the state level and not just that of the city, but places from denver to l. A. Is r are all reeling from the burden of this influx. The Mieg Ragsz Crisis is being exacerbated by politics on both sides. It demonizes with solution since a cries attacks them. Theyre aim as kuroyedovbing, many blue cities like San FranciscoHave Ordinances and rules that forced the local government to tolerate homelessness and vagrancy. Ed by knows Asylum Po Policy Faces Lawsuits and Court Challenges from several leftwing groups. Americas Immigration System Iis broken. If asylum laws were designed in the aftermath of the holocaust to allow admission to a small number of people facing k persecution because of their beliefs it provided for their Residency Applications were evaluated while they were waiting in the United States. In recent years, millions of migrants have arrived at the border with huge numbers of them claiming asylum. While some might have legitimate claims, most are fleeing the same conditions of pof erty, violence, instability and disease that have been driving wouldbe immigrants to the United States for hundreds of years. Today many have realized that today if they claim asylum they get special treatment. Some u. S. Officials handling this issue have told me that people are simply gaming the system to gain the best possible chance of entry. The laws and rules around asylum must be fixed so that the Immigration Authorities can focus the small number of genuine Asylum Seekers while compelling the rest to seek other legal means of entry. At the same time its important to note that america is currently facing a drastic shortfall of labor and needs to expand Legal Immigration in many areas for just that reason. We urgently need to attract the worlds best technically skilled people so they can push forward the information and biotech revolutions that are transforming the economy and life itself and with Unemployment Rates around 50year lows, its obvious that we need more workers in many sectors of the economy from agriculture to hospitality. If this is done in a legal and orderly manner, americans will welcome the new workers biden has tried to work with republicans on several issues and hes even had a few successes. He should propose an Immigration Bill that is genuinely bipartisan and forces compromises from both sides. It would be one more strong dose of evidence that policy can triumph over populism. Go to cnn. Com fareed for a link to my Washington Post column this week, and lets get started. 11 months ago on this program, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy told me his goal was to remove all Russian Troops from ukraine. The interview took place as soldiers seized kharkiv back from russian control. Today the picture looks very different. Ukraine is evacuating civilians from kharkiv as Russia Mounteds an area of bombardment of the territory. Western officials have expressed disappointment in a muchwanted counteroffensive which began in june. Ukraine has only taken back 100 square miles of territory since then. So why does the counter offensive seem to be faltering and does ukraine have a chance at gaining more ground . Joining me now to discuss is Alina Polyakova the president and ceo of the center for european policy analysis. Welcome, al ina. Tell us if were right that the counteroffensive is not going as well as people had thought. What is the central reason . Is there a central reason . The expectations on the counteroffensive were from the start unreasonably high and u krab has never had complete control over its airspace and if you think about carrying out an offensive which is what the ukrainians are doing while being bombarded from the air constantly and no u. S. Military operation would be carried out in the same way without complete air superiority. So thats one significant challenge that is really slowing down the ukrainians and the second reason that is equally as important is that after many colossal blunders in terms of its tactics and operations, the russians have now also adapted to a long, drawnout conflict and they are now in the position of defending territory which, in some ways, is easier than taking back territory, and those are, i think, the two main reasons for why we are seeing the kind of on the ground dynamics that have disappointed some western officials. So that raises this very difficult question going forward, right . Which is that russians are now defending and theyve often dug into these positions and they put land mines in and the ukrainians are trying to attack and traditional nato doctrine would say you need a three to one advantage in manpower and maybe a four to one advantage to achieve any kind of victory . Is it possible for the ukrainians to break through this russian this russian and theyve got land mines and trenches and they have artillery behind the trenches. Look, everything is really unknown in the fog of war, right . Certainly right now it doesnt look like ukraine is in an enviable position and theyre taking high casualties over the last year and a half or so and the russian side has dug in and they have mined the areas between themselves and the ukrainian advance very, very heavily, that is hurting the ukrainians in huge ways. A lot of the weapons that the west provided earlier on in the war takes, for example, are being taken out by these mines at a higher number than i think, many anticipated and i think now is the moment to rethink our western policy, as well, because we werent prepared for this kind of war. We were supplying ukraines with weapons to at least be able to defend themselves, but we werent supplying them with a kind of weapons they need to be able to launch a proper counteroffensive which first and foremost means high, longrange Missile Capability so they can disrupt russias supply lines behind the front lines. They are very limited in their ability to do that. So never say never, but i do think the outlook does not look positive for ukraine over the next three to four month moose when you talk to Biden Administration officials they usually have two arguments for why they havent been done faster. One is the ukrainians need to be trained on this equipment and the second is with longer range missiles there is a balance. You dont want to use missiles that attack deep into the heart of russian territory which could give the russians the provocation to feel that they were at war with nato, to use Tactical Nuclear weapons, to get much more aggressive in term of their aerial bombardment of ukrainian cities. What do you think of those arguments . The argument that were going to somehow provoke russia beyond what its currently already done, i think this is a red herring, frankly, mainly because i dont think there is a high chance that the russians will go towards the nuclear decision. We have managed that Nucleares Klatt or risk very, very effectively and the Biden Administration deserves a huge amount of credit for that, certainly and its not in the russian interest because they would lose whatever alliances or partnerships they still have with countries like china, with india who do not approve of nuclear use and have made that very clear publicly as well as privately to the russians, and my second point would be in terms of reaching further into russian territory by the ukrainians. Well, look, this is war. If youre not able to disrupt your enemys supply lines, if youre not able to hit their their centers of operations, even on ukrainian territory, the Ukrainians Cannot fully reach russias logistics and supply lines in their own country, and i think this is where the real problem is. Ukraine has no interest in attacking russia. They dont want to escalate this war as president zelenskyy said in your program they want to take back their own territory and currently they dont have the reach to be able to truly, truly fight this war in the way that any western military would have in a similar environment. Alina, that is incredibly enlightening. Thank you so much. Thank you, fareed. Next on gps, niger and the Global Implications of one more coup in west africa. please dont go by harry casey, Richard Raymond finch ping please dont go please dont go please dont go please dont go dont goooooo dont go away please dont go i wanna hold you forever hey little bear bear. Im gonna love you forever cmon, bear. You dont. You dont have to worry. Be by your side. Ill be there. With my arms wrapped around. Could be a sign that your digestive system isnt at its best. But a little metamucil every day can help. Metamucils psyllium fiber gels to trap and remove the waste that weighs you down. 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Ask their doctor today about hpv vaccination. Scout is protected by simparica trio, and hes in it to win it. Simparica trio is the first and only chew with triple protection. Oh, fleas and ticks intestinal worms. Wow heartworm disease, no problem with simarica trio. This drug class has been associated with neurologic Adverse Reactions including seizures. Use with caution in dogs with a history of these disorders. For winning protection. Go with simparica trio. Nigers military seized power last month, detaining the countrys prowestern president Mohammed Bazun in dissolving the countrys constitution. The head of bazuns own president ial guard now claims he is in charge of niger. The coup has sparked fury within most of west africas political bloc which met this week to announce it is activating a Standby Force for a possible military intervention, but the bloc appears split with twomember countries that experienced a coup recently, mali and burkina faso vowing to defend nigers junta which is now in power. Joining me to discuss what is at stake is ramayad, senior collector of the atlantic counsels Africa Center and she served as frances Secretary Of State for Foreign Affairs and human rights. Welcome. Help us understand what is going on here. The New York Times call this the coup belt, and if you look at the area that is just below the sahara and above the sudanese sahara, it does seem that its been six coups in the last few years. So what is going on . Niger is the least frontier f the fight on terrorism in africa and thats where these countries matter so much now. The second reason is there is a strong fear that the region, the sahel collapses and falls in the hands of china and russia because, as you know, there is the strong competition between global powers and even regular powers in africa, and niger represents these two things. Last frontier of this fight against terrorism, against the Islamic State and al qaeda in africa, but also, its an important asset for western forces who would like to contain the chinese and the russian agenda in africa. So this is getting very complicated. So let me try to understand it, because what you see is in the same area of the sahel, Global Terrorism deaths have gone from about 1 in 2007. Now its up to 43 . So you have the Islamic State or isis destabilizing these country which is is causing the governments to get weak and fragile and meanwhile, the chinese and the russians are trying to take advantage. Are they allied . Are the chinese and russians allied with the Military Juntas that are taking control in these countries . You know, russia, its more a matter of opportunity and china, its not limited to the sahel. There is global competition everywhere on the continent, but every time a coup happens in that arena, you can see russian flags in demonstration, popular demonstrations. Africa is key in in its influence, in russian influence and its a good way for the russian government to avoid to avoid sanctions because its a rich territory, and as you know, wagner is very active in mali, for example, where they try to develop and they are developing Predatory Business through diamonds, gold, sugar, you know, all this very important materials that are very important to feed the war in ukraine. So no matter what we say here, the future of the war in ukraine goes through the sahel region. So thats why it is so important. The whole thing does feel like one more step backwards in terms of democracy, right . You have these countries that had kind of heroically managed to become democracies and slowly, one by one, it is unraveling. It it feels to me like part of a global trend, but particularly concentrated in these fragile states in africa. When you have been facing the Terrorist Groups for ten, 15 years in the poorest countries in the world, knowing that you have to manage very vast and large territories, where local governance is weak, i can tell you its very chal