Transcripts For CNNW Fareed 20240704

This is gps the Global Public square. Welcome to all of you in the United States and Around The World. Im Fareed Zakaria coming to you from aspen, colorado. Today, an extra special program with three, yes, three former secretaries of the treasury. First, ill talk to Henry Paulson and Timothy Geithner about the state of American Politics and the downgrade of the uss Credit Ratings and the struggles of the chinese economy and then robert ruben talks to me about how to make hard decisions and what a yellow legal pad has to do with that skill. Finally, david burn came to fame with his new wave band talking heads, some 40 years ago. Ill talk to him about his latest wave of creativity which includes a musical about former fill pina first lady Imelda Marcos. Performed in a Broadway Theater thats been transformed into a disco. But first, heres my take. For years American Politics has been shaped by the idea of the china shock. The term coined by three economists in a paper captured the widespread belief that trade with china has resulted in the deindustrialization of significant parts of the u. S. And the loss of huge numbers of Manufacturing Jobs. It has fueled much of trumps trade policy and bidens new industrial policy all of which is premised on the notion that China Prsents an existential challenge to americas economic position in the world. Now there are debate as to whether the china shock was actually as strong as initially suggested. I wonder whether it should really have been called the globalization shock. Many of the western Manufacturing Jobs lost, had they not gone to china, would have gone to other emerging markets. In any event, most agree that the china shock ended about a decadeful nah ago, but its political effects remained strong even though the story in china today is completely different. Chinas economy is in bad shape. The numbers that are being released all point to a sharp, economic slowdown with few bright signs Economic Growth in the last quarter came in at 0. 8 putting china at risk of missing the governments target for the year. Prices are close to levels that suggest deflation which means no one is buying anything. New home sales by chinas hundred Biggest Developers dropped by 33 last month compared to a year ago. Youth unemployment is now over 20 . Tourism to china has collapsed. In the First Quarter of this year, just 52,000 people from overseas visited china via travel agencies. That compares with 3. 7 million in the First Quarter of 2019. In an important essay in foreign affairs, adam posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics argues that the slowdown is not the result of oneoffs such as the pandemic or the war in ukraine. Instead he points out that xi jinpings Economic Strategy which places politics and the Communist Party above free markets and growth has cost china dearly. Posen notes that in 2015 the Chinese People began reacting to the increasing political interference in the economy by saving rather than spending. Bank deposits as a share of gdp have grown by 50 since then. He writes, in the face of uncertainty and fear, households and Small Businesses start to prefer cash savings to illiquid investment. As a result, growth persistently declines. Posen sees chinas slowdown as part of a pattern seen elsewhere in places like venezuela, russia, turkey and hungary, at the start, the government desperately wants growth and pursues marketfriendly policies and then as the leader consolidates power, he seeks political control over the economy and starts cracking down on Companies Seen as problematic. Soon, politics triumphs over economics and growth slows. He writes, once know autocratic regime has lost the confidence of the average household and business it is difficult to win back. In other words, once you have interfered massively in the economy, its clear that you could do so again at any time. Ive often noted that american anxiety about china reminds me about similar fears about japans dominance in the late 1980s and early 1990s just as the japanese economy was speaking and would go into a prolonged slowdown. Paul crewman concludes that chinas future path will not follow japans. Quote, china will do worse, unquote. He points out that like japan at the time, chinas economy is similarly unbalanced with weak consumer demand, real estate woes and worrying demographics and china is ruled by an authoritarian regime arising from slower growth. Both share one critical problem, when you have a declining working age population, it is very hard to sustain a high growth economy. Meanwhile, the American Economy continues to surprise on the upside, and growth is higher than expected and inflation is dropping faster than predicted and employment numbers continue to be very strong and despite that the country has lost its aaa rating from one of the major Credit Rating agencies which pointed to high debt and even higher political dysfunction. The problem for america is not its economic fundamentals which remain very strong. Its that there is a second shock that america has been reeling from. The trump shock. The United States has seen the rise of a populous demagogue who threatened to destroy any and all institutions that stand in his way and he has a following like none i have everstein that is devoted to him No Matter What he does or says. He has captured the Republican Party almost completely . Many of the republicans who stood up to trump in 2020 have been replaced with loyalists. So if he gets his nomination and runs for the presidency which seems highly likely, it will lead to much greater turmoil than we saw in the last election. America has dealt with the china shock, but so far has no answer to the trump shock. Go to cnn. Com fareed for a link to my Washington Post column this week. And lets get started. As i said, the u. S. Saw its debt downgraded this week. Fitch lowered the u. S. From the highest aaa rating and aa citing a steady deterioration in standards was governance, but theres also been good news for the u. S. Economy and inflation is moderating and this week, Bank Of America rescinded its projection that the United States would fall into recession next year. Few people are as qualified to weigh in on the health of the u. S. Economy as my guests hank paulson who served as Treasury Secretary under george w. Bush and tim geithner who held that job under barack obama. We met on friday on the sidelines of the aspen Economic Strategy groups annual meeting. Hank paulson, tim geithner. Pleasure to have you on. Great to be here. Jim, youve seen this Fitch Downgrade first time in a decade, i think. Do you think it makes sense . I mean, we obviously have a lot of long term fiscal challenges, and in time, we will have to confront those challenges and like any american the world look at our political system today and they wonder. Is america going to be able to fine the well to come together in the sense of a way. I think that pat of the problem is it still feel remote and over her horizon, like any political system the hard challenge is trying to get people to focus something that seems kind of far away and they dont feel the cost of it today. This is the debt index. Exactly. Theres nothing new in the fact that were living with longterm pi fiscal challenges and ultimately its the judgment of the capacity of a countrys political system. We are very fortunate, rich, resilient economy with a huge amount of strength and we have plenty of ways to deal with this, and its going to take some time, but we cant wait forever. How worried are you about the debt . Well, like tim said i dont have an immediate worry, right . But longer term, its a major concern. Theres no example in history of any major power continued where they lose their fiscal strength. So to me, as i look at the Fitch Downgrade, i look at it and say its too bad it came right after we had a bipartisan, maybe another short term deal to deal with the debt limit and its in some ways a very important wakeup call. When you look at the situation right now, though, whats striking is how much the u. S. Economy is surprising on the upside. Is it possible that we will have that rare thing, a soft landing because it does seem like inflation is going down, but unemployment is not going up that much. Its certainly possible and as you said, we had a meaningful improvement inflation with the economy thats still pretty strong and thats an enviable, rare, combination, but the risks in this and the challenges that are not yet behind us and the fed cant yet know whether you will get enough moderation without inducing a greater slowdown in the economy and thats a very fine balance to strike, and you should feel more comfortable today than you would have two years ago and six months ago or three months ago and its still early to say that the challenge in this are fundamentally behind us. Thanks, when you look att bidens economic policy, it feels like a very different policy than we followed in the past. Theres a lot more government involvement, a lot more government subsidies. Some of it for green technology, some of it essentially to compete with china. What do you make of that strategy . Well, to begin with, the thing that i dislike most and some things to like is something something you didnt mention was protection. The tearives, we are looking to close markets at the same time that china is doing business with more and more of the world to trade and investment, but as i look at the Biden Economic policy, you know, i take Climate Change so seriously i was a major proponent of the ira, and i think that has the potential to make a huge difference in terms of accelerating the development of these sort of technologies were going to need and really in changing the cost curve there. So i i see that im positive about that, but otherwise i am uncomfortable by and large with industrial policy, right . That sometimes it makes real sense where its targeted and youve got a very, very specific goal and its going to be implemented very carefully. Im, you know, cautiously optimistic the blue chips gel bill. It will, implement it, reit . So im burden of proofed about regulation, i some concerns about the trpolicy and inflationary, but theres plenty of president and as tim said weve got an economy that sure looks better than many of us had predicted a number of months ago, but you know, were not Out Of The Woods yet in terms of inflation. One thing i would emphasize when we look at the u. S. Economy theres not many countries i can think of that we would ever trade places with. When you look at the size of our economy, the gdp per capita and the very bestrun companies in the world and the best company, energy independent, living in a safe neighborhood, you know, the only the real problem the country has right now is dysfunction in washington, right . But otherwise its its a very strong position. Well take a short break. When we come back im going to ask hank paulson and time geithner about the u. S. Policy toward china. Are we getting it right . Meet the future. All learning to save and spend their money with chase. 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We are back in aspen with hank paulson and tim geithner talking about u. S. China policy, the perils and the promise. Lets talk about china because huge subject, but also one that you in particular, hank, youve written a lot about it, you wrote a very important affairs essay where you basically middle americas china policy is not working. Do you want to explain what your biggest concerns are . Le America Policy is not working. Do you want to explain what your biggest concerns are . E America Policy is not working. Do you want to explain what your biggest concerns are . Americas policy is not working. Do you want to explain what your biggest concerns are . Americas y is not working. Do you want to explain what your biggest concerns are . We need to begin by saying this is a troubled rip, right . And xi jinpings china is very different from the xiang china militarily, diplomatically and really in every respect. Heres where the problem comes in. What i was talking about was how were handling our, you know, Port Controls with china dealing with technology. How much should we see. No one argues that we should not be holding back technologies in the highest technologies that have real military uses and you are critical to national security. My concern was simply this. If we sequester too much technology, what were doing is essentially isolating u. S. Companies from from the global economy. China is a major, major competitor, and i think the competition, you know, hopefully, we wont stumble into war and this wont be, this is a competition thats not going decided on the battlefield. It will be decided on the economic Playing Field and here, i think, we lose a lot if u. S. Companies arent leading Around The World. A big part of this competition is going to be developing and implementing and rolling out the technologies of the future, right . And so here its very important, i think, that the u. S. Companies are in the Leadership Position there and Setting Standards globally. Do you think the administration is getting this balance right . They sequestered the high end technologies with high fences rather than a big, open field as was the metaphor would be and theyre now going to announce restrictions on u. S. Investments into china . How worried are you that this creates an atmosphere where businesses dont know whats permissible and whats not . Whats next on the list . Yeah. Thats the challenge. Theyve said understandably, theyre going to define a limited number of particular techs technologies where there is a key security imperative and we should limit chinas capacity like weve done for decades with many countries to access that technology and to keep the limitations narrow. That is the challenge because its hard to define or frame a limiting principle that the world can look at and say i understand its going to stop there and not and not expand beyond that, and i think part of the challenge for the world in looking at this is that we are also trying to build more supply chain resilience. Were making shes large investments in the Climate Transition which we want to make sure benefit American Companies and american employment and there is a bit of hank used the word protectionist. There is a bit of nationalist, Protectionist Shadow Cast over this set of policies and its making it harder for the world to figure out how to navigate what would always be a tough thing to define. When we take actions against china, we are often doing stuff that is in violation of the kind of open World Economy that weve built, that we espouse and oftentimes were doing the kind of the same things that we are doing and violating the wto. Is that a problem in terms of building an alliance of likeminded countries . I think it is. I think the administration understands that and theyre trying to preserve and repair and rebuild that part of the rulesbased multilateral, relatively open, integrated economic system. Its been such a huge benefit not just to americans, but to countries Around The World and were trying to preserve that while we are also trying to craft a Military Deterrent and make sure we can reduce the risk to us that come from this more ascendant, ambitious china and thats a tough balance to strike, but i think theres no plausible strategy for the United States to preserve our Core National Security Interest without also protecting any preserving that rulesbased multilateral, relatively open economic system. Hank, tell me about the group that you guys had at aspen, and why did you bring this together . The reason we brought it here was we had this vision of having a forum where we could where we could discuss and debate cuttingedge really cutting edge and evidencebased research and do it in a nonpartisan way, and our theme is building a more resilient, u. S. Economy and its a great topic and we bring it together in a really Interesting Group of people. Hank paulson, tim geithner, great to have you individually and rare collectively. From the minds of the bush and obama administrations to one from the clinton years. Joining me next is former Treasury Secretary bob rubin who has advice on how to make all kinds of difficult decisions in life. Off the racking. Or crab cracking, youre cashbacking. Cashback on flapjacks, baby backs, or tacos at the taco shack. Nah, im working on my six pack. Switch to a king suite or book a silent retreat. Silent retreat . Hold up yeeerp . I cant talk right now, im at a silent retreat. 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Plus, ask how to get one free line of unlimited mobile. Comcast business, powering possibilities. President bill clinton hailed my next guest as the most effective Treasury Secretary since alexander hamilton. Bob rubin, who was, of course, clintons own Treasury Secretary, attributes his success to a significant amount of luck, but also to a unique decisions making process that he describes as probabilistic thinking. It is the subject of his new book the yellow pad. Making better decisionses in an uncertain world. Bob rubin, pleasure toio have on. Always great to be with you, fareed. You say you take out a legal pad. Ive seen you do this and one of those big, yellow legal pads. What do you do . Well, i take my yellow pad and this goes back to when i was in Goldman Sachs and i was returning the Treasury Department and we had to decide to take a position or not take a position and you take out a yellow pad, if this is my decision, what are all of the possible benefits the possible costs and what are the risks and make judgments about probabilities and ultimately you try to make the best decision you can, fareed. There are no provable certainties and that has to do with modern science, as you know and all probabilities and i developed a probabilistic mindset and i didnt think about things that way and i deeply internalized it, and pretty much every decision ive ever made, fareed, ive made from that mindset. You have an extraordinary career of Decision Making and Goldman Sachs, you ran the arbitrage and ran Goldman Sachs and very successful Treasury Secretary. Theres one period in your life where in the book you talk about you felt like you didnt get it right. You didnt see the housing crisis, you didnt see the Global Financial crisis. You were at citigroup then. What lesson did you learn from that . When you look back on that, what do you think you got wrong and how do you apply the lessons Going Forward . I certainly did not see that as a crisis. I was thinking about a lot of Different Things and i think there were a lot of excesses and i used to give speeches about it, actually and obviously, i should have. I dont think it would have made a difference in the city, particularly because i was a senior counselor and not in a Decision Making position, and i think and i wrote about this in the book because there is a lesson, look under the hood and have a questioning mindset because almost nobody including the fed and analysts and Bank Regulators and a few did, but very, very few. People saw the excess and nobody saw it together the way it did, and so you always have to include in your Decision Making the possibility that something will happen and nobody thought or at least you havent thought of. When you look at the u. S. Economy today it does look like inflation is coming down and unemployment is not coming up and we might get that perfect, soft landing or are you skeptical . I think looking at the long term, fareed, we have enormous strengths and i think we are far and away best positioned in the global economy. I would rather invest here and do business here than any other major economy. Now theres an assumption in there that at some point or other well meet our policy will cha e challenges and even though we have political issue, we have more to do. In terms of the moment, i think there is a certain complacency right now and it may well be that we have a soft landing, but it also could be that we could have Something Different than a soft landing. 15 years that ive been involveded with this stuff, fareed, theres as much uncertainty today about the next, say, year and a half and any that i can recollect in my tom and it may resolve in a soft landing and the material chance it can resolve to a slowdown in a recession and inflation is certainly still there and the question is does it come down or does it reignite . I dont have a view on the probabilities, but i do have a view that these are enormous uncertainties and that uncertainty should be one of cautious bias when one thinks about a shorter term. Final question, when you think about the way you make decisions with that kind of very careful analysis, do you think you have a bias towards caution . Because i think about how Venture Capitalists make decisions and theyre much more risk seeking than you are, is it partly a personality . I do have a personality. It does. My psyche causes me to focus risk. I write about this in my book and you try to be selfreflective enough and put your biasses aside and my bias is toward overemphasizing risk and Decision Making. So what i try to do is recognize that and put it aside and i think ive done reasonably well over that over time. I think most people would agree. Bob rubin, pleasure to have you on. Fareed, always good to be with you. Next on gps. David bern is the lead singer of talking heads, but his work outside of the group has earned him an oscar, a grammy and a tony. His latest Creative Endeavor is a Broadway Musical about fo former filipina first leader, Imelda Marcos. Ill talk about it in just a bit. Eeded it fixed right. We went to safelite. Com. Theres no one else wed trust. 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Youre making the most of every hour of your life. Except the hours that youre sleeping. So why do we leave so much Untapped Potential on the table . This is a next level bed, for a next level you. My Circadian Rhythm is kicking your Circadian Rhythms butt its not a competition. I know, but im still winning so, it is a competition. Save up to 500 on the new sleep number® smart bed. Plus, free Home Delivery when you add an adjustable base. Shop now only at sleep number®. David berns first big break came in the 1970s at the iconic new york music club cbgbs. The band he lead, talking heads, went on to have a fame to acclaim with defining hits. They also put out what is often heralded as one of The Greatest Concept Films of all time. Stop making sense. The band split in 1991, but bern who was often called a polymath has stayed indulging his artistic and human interests. Hes kept making music. Hes written books, hes created pieces grounded to science. In the theater of the mind. He started a website called reasons to be cheerful which you should check out when the world is getting you down. And bern took hom a 2020 tony award for his musical american utopia. Today hes back on broadway with a musical he cowrote. It chronicles the life of form are filipina Imelda Marcos and her love of disco. I spent some time recently talking to bern trying to understand what makes this great artist tick. David byrne, welcome. Thank you. Thanks for inviting me on the show. So you have a very wideranging talent, but Imelda Marcos. Why . Why . Yes. Okay. Its a little story. I had an idea about that i could maybe do a theater project, a musical in a disco, in a discotheque. This was i dont know, 20 years ago. I didnt know what to do and i thought wouldnt it be fun if people could dance and they were getting a story at the same time and then years later i read that she loved going to discos in her heyday, and she had a mirror ball installed in her new york townhouse. I googled it up at the time. This was some years ago and i found a video of her dancing under that mirror ball with khashoggi, the arms dealer. I thought, whoa, theres a story here. [ laughter ] and and it takes place in that world, in the world of dance clubs and discotheques, so i thought, let me see if i can do some research and see when kind of story there is. So the way you tell that story is fascinating because youre youre fundamentally looking at it from a creative place, where youre looking at the idea of theater, disco, you know, fusing those, and then you happen upon the story. Did the politics of the story attract you . As i did the research, yes. The politics became fascinating. I wondered how i can tell it how much of it i can tell. Basically in a musical like that you cant get into all of the details of why did this happen or why did that happen, but i decided to focus on, yes, the story of her rise, her marriage with ferdinand marcos. His declaring martial law and basically becoming addicted in the philippines and them both being ousted peacefully in a demonstration that was called the People Power Revolution which is just one of the most beautiful things you can read about and have lots of pictures and the news was there. The thing that most people know about Imelda Marcos and we remember her from the days that i was in college when all of this happened was her enormous shoe collection. Yet, somehow was that was that a conscious decision to not go for the obvious . Yeah. We dont mention the shoes at all partly because thats baggage that some of the audience members already bring with them. So we have to tell them things that they dont know. Any other reason which maybe is is not the best reason, but the shoes were not discovered until the marcos were airlifted out of the palace in manila and then the people descended on the palace and go oh, my god, look at this, but by then our storys over. When you when you think about ardent politics and you think about what youve been talking about, it is very relevant right now with the rise of authoritarians everywhere, marcos coming back himself in his own way, do you think that that was part of the Background Noise that made you that drew you to the story . It certainly seems more relevant now than it did when i first conceived this story, when i first conceived the story. It seemed like maybe somewhat inspiring, but isolated incident and then it just seemed to now today we have a democracy under threat all over the place, it seems very relevant. The People Power Revolution that ousted the marcos back in the day, that was an inspiration for tunisia and egypt, ukraine, whatever, not all of which like the philippines and not all of them managed to maintain that idealism or maintain the democrat see that they were seeking and in a way marcos seeps to be a gentler, and rather do what assad did and maduro did, stay there. Kill as many people as you can. There were a lot factors that prevented that from happening. A good number of their troops, they did send troops to surround the demonstrators, but the troops often abandoned their tanks. They got out and started mingling with the crowd. They wouldnt fire on their they refused to fire on their own people. The church, its a catholic country, the church defected, as well. The name of the cardinal is cardinal sin. He went against the marcos as well, so you have all these big factors working against them. It does feel, as you say, like a different time. That time that weve seens the beginning of a wave of democracy movements and now with the singers and the reversal of many of those include in the philippines. Yes. Next on gps i asked burn with the confidence of art and politics. What happens when they meet . Well be back in a moment. Answer. Boom, you get a real offer. Sell your car to carvana today. She runs and plays like a puppy again. 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Hes getting paid back. Orange slicesss. Because this team all has chase. Smart bankers. Convenient tools. One bank with the power of both. Chase. Make more of whats yours. More now with my interview with the multihyphenated artist david byrne, musician, filmmaker. I made a movie. Author. P playwright, and more. Do you think that art and politics, as you say, everything is inevitably political . Do you think that art should be trying a bit more to be more political . I think it all i think art should reflect the world we live in. But art can fall into a trap when it starts to preach. When it becomes a soap box and people are doing that. Why, because you lose the artistic you lose the artistic yes, you have to do the art part first. And then the other things can be done by inference. And i think an audience gets that. And it works sometimes, but i think its really difficult to do. To pull off a very pointed political show. You have done something unusual, not completely unique, but unusual for somebody as celebrated as you. You dont sort of rest on your laurels and go out and do the tour with, you know, playing the great old hits. Youre trying projects on neuroscience in denver, trying american utopia here, this new kind of Broadway Musical. You could fail in some of these, and sometimes the reviews, you know, some have not been that great. Why do you do it at this point in your life when you could be, as i say, just reliving the glory days and raking it in . I grew up in a period, i was in high school in the late 60s. And it seemed like that was an ideal that was held up. To explore and be curious and try Different Things. And try different keeinds of muc and work in different mediums. It seems like a possibility, it was held up as this is an ideal. I like that, that sounds like fun. And i never gave up on that. Its true, some things have failed. Gotten reviews that were so bad that basically it was shut down. But because its all new and inventive. You try Something Else and go okay, okay. I dont agree with all of that, but pick yourself up and keep going. Do you think of your work as political . All going back to talking heads, do you think that youre trying to convey a political message with your work . I think everything is political, but not in an obvious way. I dont get up there and preach about issues. I dont write songs about specific issues, really. But its all in there. Maybe its a metaphor for a song might be a metaphor for Something Else, and it does affect how people think. And it tells people how i feel about things, but not in a direct way. This kind of show, a musical that deals with history and politics and personalities, yes, it does get into politics. But again, its in a round about way. We dont talk about all the connections between the u. S. And the philippines over the decades. But we have the cast singing about kind of how americanized it became, how they love American Products and all the things that americans do because they were an American Colony for a long time. Your artistic vision here, just to get back to that, was to have broadway turned into a disco. Has it succeeded . Do people dance every night . People dance every night. Not quite half the audience is on a dance floor. And the rest is seats. More conventional seating. But half of them are on the dance floor, and the cast mingles with them. And nobody has to do anything embarrassing, but thats what it is. Wow. Always a pleasure to talk to you. Thank you. Before we go, i want you to know that as far as the staff of gps can recall, david byrne is by far the most famous guest of the show to have ridden a bike to our interview. Along with all his other passions hes a huge advocate for twowheel transport. Thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week from aspen. 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A heartbreaking loss for u. S. Women