Transcripts For CNNW Fareed 20240704

World. Im Fareed Zakaria coming to you from aspen, colorado. Today, an extra special program with three, yes, three former secretaries of the treasury. First ill auck to Henne Paulson and Timothy Geithner about the downgradingst u. S. Credit ratings and the struggles the chinese economy. And then robert rubin talks about how to make hard decisions. And what a yellow legal pad has to do with that skill. Finally, david byrne came to fame with his new wave band Talking Heads. Some 40 years ago. I talk to him about his latest wave of creativity which includes a musical about former philippina first lady Imelda Marcos. Performed in a broadway theater. That has been transformed into a disco. But first, here is my take. For years now, American Politics has been shaped by the idea of the chinese shock. The term coined by three economists in a 2016 paper captures the widespread believe that trade with china has resulted in the deindustrialization of significant parts of the u. S. And loss of huge numbers of Manufacturing Jobs. It is fueled much of trumps trade policy and bidens new industrial policy. All of which is premised on the notion that china presents an existential challenge to americas economic position in the world. Now, there are debates as to whether the china shock was as strong as initially suggested. I wonder whether it should have been called the globalization shock. Many of the western Manufacturing Jobs lost had they not gone to china would have gone to other emerging markets. In any event, most agree that the china shock ended about a decade and a half ago. But its political effects remain strong. Even though the story in china today is completely different. Chinas economy is in bad shape. The numbers that are being released all point to a sharp economic slowdown with few bright signs. Economic growth last quarter came in 0. 8 . Putting china at risk of missing the governments target for the year. Prices are close to levels that suggest deflation, which means no one is buying anything. New home sales by chinas 100 Biggest Developers dropped by 33 last month compared to a year ago. Youth unemployment is now over 20 . Tourism to china has collapsed. If the First Quarter this year, just 52,000 people from overseas visited china via travel agencies. That compares with 3. 7 million in the First Quarter of 2019. In an important essay in Foreign Affairs, adam pozzin, the president for the institute for economists argued the slowdown is not the result of oneoffs such as the pandemic or the war in ukraine, instead he points out that xi jinpings Economic Strategy which places politics and the Communist Party above free markets and growth has cost china dearly. He notes that in 2015 the Chinese People began reacting to the increasing political in interference in the economy by saving rather than spending. Bank deposits have grown by 50 since then. In the face of uncertain and fear, households and Small Businesses start to prefer cash savings to illiquid investment. As a result, growth persistently declines. Pozzin sees this as a pattern seen elsewhere in places like venezuela, russia, turkey and hungary. At the start they want growth and pursues market friendly policies. Then as the leader consolidates power, he seeks political control over the economy. And starts cracking down on Companies Seen as problematic. Soon, politics triumphs over economics and growth slows. He writes, once an autocratic regime has lost the confidence of the average household and business, it is difficult to win back. In other words, once you have interfered massively in the economy, it is clear that you could do so again at any time. Ive often noted that american anxiety about china reminds me of similar fears about japans dominance in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Just as the japanese economy was peaking and would go into a prolonged slowdown. Paul krugman compared the two countries and concludes that chinas future path will not follow japans. Quote, china will do worse, unquote. He points out that like japans at the time, chinas economy is similarly unbalanced with real estate woes and worrying demographics and china is ruled been an authoritarian regime arising from slower growth. Both share one critical problem. When you have a declining working age population, it is very hard to sustain a high growth economy. Meanwhile, the American Economy continues to surprise on the upside. Growth is higher than expected, inflation is dropping faster than predicted and employment numbers continue to be very strong. And yet despite that the country has lost his aaa rating from one of the major Credit Rating agencies when pointed to high debt, and even higher political dysfunction. The problem for america is not its economic fundamentals which remain very strong. It is that there is a second shock that america has been reeling from. The trump shock. The United States has seen the rise of a Populist Demagogue who threaten tos destroy all institutions that stand in his way and he has a following like none ive ever seen that is devoted to him no matter what he does or said. He has captured the Republican Party and many of those that stood up to trump there 2020 have been replaced with loyalists. So if he gets its nomination and runs for the presidency, which seems highly likely, it will lead to much greater turmoil than we saw in the last election. America has dealt with the china shock, but so far it has no answer to the trump shock. Go to cnn. Com fareed for a link to my Washington Post column this week. And lets get started. As i said, the u. S. Saw its debt downgraded this week. Fitch lowers the u. S. From the highest aaa rating to aa plus citing a steady deterioration in standards of governance. But there is also been good news for the u. S. Economy. Inflation is moderating and this week Bank Of America rescinded his projection that the United States will fall into recession next year. Few people are as qualified to weigh in as the health of the u. S. Economy as pank paulson and tim geithner who held the job under barack obama. We met on friday on the sidelines of the aspen Economic Strategy group annual meeting. Hank paulson, tim geithner, pleasure to have you on. Good to be here. Youve seen this Fitch Downgrade, first time in a decade i think. What do do you think it makes sense . We obviously had a lot of long island fiscal challenges and in time were going to have to confront those challenges. And like any american, the world looks at our political system today and they wonder, is america going to be able to find the will to come together and do this in the sensible way. I think part of the problem is that it is still feeling remote and over the horizon, like any political system, it is hard to get people to focus on something that feels far away. They dont feel the cost of it today. This is the debt. Exactly. But so there is nothing new in the fact that were living with longterm fiscal challenges, it is a judgment about the capacity of the countrys political system. Were a very fortunate, rich resilient economy with a huge amount of strength and we have plenty of ways to deal with this. But it is going to take some time. But we cant wait forever. How worried are you about the debt . Well, like tim said, i dont have an immediate worry, right. But long isterm, it is a major concern. There is no example in history of any major power continuing to be a tower where they lose their fiscal strength and so to me as i look at the Fitch Downgrade and i look at it and say it is too bad it came after we had a bipartisan maybe a shortterm deal, but the deal with the debt limit, but it is in some ways a very important wakeup call. When you look at the situation right now, though, as you were saying, what is striking how much the u. S. Economy is surprising on the upside. Is it possible that we will have that rare thing of soft landing because right now it does seem like inflation is going down. But unemployment is not going up that much . It is certainly possible. And as you said, weve had a meaningful improvement if inflation with a economy that is still strong and that is an enviable rare combination. But the risk and challenges are not yet behind us and the fed cant yet know whether youre going to get enough moderation without inducing a greater slowdown in the economy and that is a very fine balance to strike. But i would say, you should feel more comfortable today than we wrof two years ago months ago but it is hard to say the challenges are behind us. When you look at bidens economic policy, it feels like a very different policy than we followed in the past. There is a lot for government involvement, a lot more government subsidies. Some of this for green technology, some it essentially to compete with china. What do you make of that strategy . Well, to begin with, the thing that i dislike the most and something to like is something you didnt mention which is protectionism. The tariffs. The tariffs. I mean, we are working to close markets at the same time that china is, you know, doing business with more and more of the world. Trade and investment. But as i look at the Biden Economic policy, i take Climate Change so seriously, i was a major proponent of the ira and i think that as the potential to make a huge difference in terms of accelerating the development of the sorts of technologies were going to need and really changing the the cost curve there. So i see that, im positive about that. But otherwise, i am uncomfortable by enlarge with industrial policy, all right. That somethings it makes real sense, where it is targeted and youve got a very, very specific goal, and it is going to be implemented very carefully. Im cautiously optimistic about the chips bill. But, again, there it comes down is It Bureaucracy that could implement it. Right. So im concerned about the regulation. Im concerned about immigration. You know, i have some concerns about the antitrust policy and regulation. I think these things are inflationary. But as we again, there is there is plenty of positive and as tim said, weve gotten an economy that sure looks better than many of us had pred had predicted a number of months yet. Were not out of the when it comes to inflation. There are not many countries that i could think of that we would trade places with. When you look at the size of our economy, the gdp per capita, The Very Best run companies in the world, the best technology, energy independence, and living in a safe neighborhood. The only real problem the country has right now is dysfunction in washington, right. But otherwise, it is its at a very strong position. Well take a short break. When we come back, im going to ask hank paulson and tim geithner about u. S. Policy toward china. Are we getting it right . Fisher Investments in this market, youllll find Fisher Investments is different than other moneney managers. other Money Manager different how . W . Arent w we all just looking fr the hottest stocks . 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Enter the 10,000 powered by protein max challenge. And were back in aspen with hank paulson and tim geithner, talking about u. S. China policy, the perils and the promise. Lets talk about china, because huge subject, but also one that you in particular, hank, youve written a lot about. You wrote a very important Foreign Affairs essay where you said americas china policy is not working. Do you want to explain what your biggest concerns are . Well, first of all, fareed, let me simply say that we need to begin by saying this is a troubled relationship, right. And and the xi jinpings china is different than diplomatically and economically, in every respect. Here is where the problem comes in. What i was talking about was how were going how were handling our you know, our Expert Controls with china dealing with technology. How much should we sequester. And of course, no one argues that we should not be holding back technologies in the highest technologies that have real military uses and owe critical to national security. My concern was simply this. If we sequester too much technology, what were doing is essentially isolating u. S. Companies from the global economy. China is a major, major competitor. And i think the competition, you know hopefully we wont stumble into war and this is a competition not decided on the battlefield. It will be decided on the economic playing field. And here i think we lose a lot if u. S. Companies arent leading around the world. A big part of this competition is going to be developing and implementing and rolling out the technologies of the future. Right. And so, here it is very important, i think, that the u. S. Companies are in a Leadership Position there and Setting Standards globally. Tim, do you think that the administration is getting this balance right . The sequestered sp of the High End Technology and it is a small yard of technology with high fences rather than a Big Open Field as was the metaphor would be and theyre now going to announce restrictions on u. S. Investment into china. How worried are you that that creates an atmosphere where businesses dont know what is permissible, what is next, what is next on the list . That is the challenge. Theyve said, understandably, that theyre going to define a limited number of technologies where there is a key Core National security imperative. And we should limit chinas capacity like weve done for decades with many countries to access that technology. And to keep the limitations narrow and calibrated to that objective. That is the challenge. Because it is hard to define a or a frame of a limited principle, that the world could look at and say i understand it is going to stop there, and not expand beyond that. I think part of the challenge of the world in looking at this, were also trying to build more supply chain resilience. Were making large investments in the climb transition. We want to make sure that it will benefit American Companies and american employment. And there is a bit of this to use the word protectionist, there is a bit of a nationalist protectionist shadow cast over this set of polisies and that is figuring it out harder for the world to navigate what would be a tough a tough thing to define. When we take actions against china, were often doing stuff that is in violation of the kind of open World Economy that weve built, that we espouse and oftentimes were doing the same things were accused china of doing, violating the wto. Is that a problem in building an alliance in likeminded countries. I think the administration understands that and trying to figure out ho pl how to presee that multilateral and open Economic System that has been a huge fit to americans and to countries around world and trying to craft a credibility Military Deterrent and make sure we could reduce the risk to us that come from this more ascendent china. But i think there is no plausible strategy for the United States to preserve our Core National security interests without also protecting and preserving that rulesbased multilateral relatively open Economic System. Hank, tell me about the group that you guys headed at aspen and why did you bring this together. The reason we brought it here is we had this vision of having a forum where we could where we could discuss and debate cuttingedge really cuttingedge and evidencebased research and do it in a nonpartisan way and our theme is building a more resilient u. S. Economy. So, it is a great topic and we bringing to a really Interesting Group of people. Hank paulson, tim geithner, pleasure to have you on. A rare occurrence to have you individually and completely rare collectively. Thank you. From the great economic minds of the bush and obama administrations to one from the clinton years. Joining me next is former Treasury Secretary bob rubin who has advice on how to make all kinds of difficult decisions in life. So researchehers can help life underwater flourish. Okay e everyone, our mission is complete balanced nutrition. Together we provide nutrients to support immune, scle, bone, and heart health. Yaaay woo hoo ensure with 25 vitans and minerals and ensure complete with 30 grams of protein. Trelegy for copd. Birds flyin high, you know how i feel. Breeze driftin on. [coughing]. By, you know how i feel. If youre tired of staring down your copd,. Its a new dawn, its a new day. Stop settling. And im feelin good. Start a new day with trelegy. No oncedaily Copd Medicine has the power to treat copd in as many ways as trelegy. 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Singers safelite repair, safelite replace. Bridgett is here. She has no clue that im here. She has no clue whos in the helmet. Are you ready . Im ready alright. Xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and onceinalifetime. President bill clinton hailed my next guest as the most effective treasury since alexander hamilton. Bob rubin attributes his success to a significant amount of luck. But also to a unique decisionmaking process that he describes as probable thinking. It is the subject of his new book, the yellow pad, making better decisions in an uncertain world. Paul rubin, pleaseure to have you on. Good to be with you, fareed. And in your life when youve had to make a decision, you say that you take out a legal pad, ive seen you do this. One of those big yellow legal pads and what do you do . Well, i take my yellow pad and this goes back to when i first went to Goldman Sachs and i was running the department and we had to decide if you take a position or not take a position. You take out a yellow pad and if this is my decision, what are all of the possibility benefits and the possible dcosts and try to make the best decision you can, fareed. There are no provable certainties and that is the view of modern science and all decision is about probabilities and i developed a mindset and i just didnt think about things but i deeply internalized it and every decision ive ever made, pretty much every decision, ive made from that mindset. You have an extraordinary career of decisionmaking. Golden sacks, you ran the arbitrage and very successful Treasury Secretary. There is one period in your life where in the book you talk about you felt like you didnt get it right. You didnt see the Housing Crisis or the Global Financial crisis. You were at citigroup then. What lesson did you learn from that . When you look back, how do you apply the lessons going forward. Well i certainly did not see that Housing Crisis. I was thinking about a lot of Different Things and i thought there were a lot of excesses and i didnt think of housing as one them. I should have. I dont think it would have made in the difference at citi because i was a senior counselor but not in a decisionmaking position. Look under the hood and have a Question Mindset and almost nobody including the fed and analysts and Bank Regulators and i mean some did but few did but people saw the excess and nobody saw it coming together the way it did so i think you have to include in your Decision Making that something will happen and nobody has thought of or at least you havent thought of. When you look at the u. S. Economy, it does look like inflation is coming down, unemployment is not going up, we might get that soft landing or are you skeptical . I think looking at the longterm, we have ear normous strengths and i would rather do investment here and than any other major economy. Now there is an assumption that at some point or another well meet our policy challenges. Not terrifically well but reasonably well and even though we have tremendous issues in our political system, i think over time we will in the last two and a half years weve done quite a bit but there is more to do. In terms of the moment, i think there is a complacency and it may be that we have a soft landing but we have Something Different than a soft landing and i think ive been around this a long time. 50 years that ive been involved with this, and i think there is as as much uncertainty, but the material chance that it could resolve to a slowdown or a recession and inflation is certainly still there. The question is does it come down or reignite and i think that is i dont have a view on the probability, but i do have a view these are enormous uncertainty and that should be a cautious bias when one things about the longterm. When you think about the way you make decisions with that kind of very careful analysis, do you think you have a bias towards caution . Because i think about how Venture Capitalists make decisions and their much more risk seeking than you. Is there much more personality . No doubt, i think my psyche causes many he to focus on risk. So i think you need to do and i write about this in book, you think you need to try to be selfreflective and put your biases aside and i think my bias is toward over emphasizing risk and decisionmaking. So what i try to do is recognize that and put it aside and i think ive done reasonable with that over time. I think most people would agree. Bob rubin, thanks for coming on. It is always good to be with you. Thank you. Next on gps, david byrne is known as the singer of the Talking Heads but his group has earned him an oscar, a grammy and a tony. His latest endeavor is about a immelda marcos. I talk to him about it after the break. So you can deliver more value to your customers. Fast. Reliable. Perfectly orchestrated. The United Statess postal service. Mlb chooses tmobile for business for 5g solutions. To not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played. Nows the time to see what americas largest 5g network can do for your business. Struggling with the highs and lows of bipolar 1 . Ask about vraylar. Because you are greater than your bipolar 1, and you can help take control of your symptoms with vraylar. Some medicines only treat the lows or highs. Vraylar treats depressive, acute manic, and mixed episodes of bipolar 1 in adults. Proven, fullspectrum relief for all bipolar 1 symptoms. And in vraylar clinical studies, most saw no substantial impact on weight. 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Noom has taught me how you think about food has such a. Huge impact on your relationship with it. Visit noom. Com and start your trial today. And there he is. Chaz. The rec leagues selfcrowned pickleball king. Do you just bow down . No you dethrown the king. Pedialyte. 3x the electrolytes. David byrnes first big break came in the 1970s at the iconic new york music club cbgbs. The land he led Talking Heads went on to fame with genre defying hits. They also put out what is often heralded as one of the greatest Concert Films of all time. Stop making sense. The band split in 1991. But byrne, who is called a poly math, has stayed indulging his artistic and human interests. He kept making music. Hes written books. Hes created an immersive theater piece grounded in principles of neuroscience that ran in denver. In the theater, of the mind he started a website called reasons to be cheerful. Which you should check out when the world is getting you down. And he took home a 2020 tony award for his hit musical American Utopia. Today hes back on broadway with a musical he cowrite, chronicle the life of Imelda Marcos and his love of disco. I spent some time talking to him trying to understand what makes this great artist tick. David byrne, welcome. Thank you. Thank you for inviting me offer the show. So you have a wideranging talent. But Imelda Marcos, why . Why . Yes. Okay, it is a little story. I had an idea about that i could maybe do a theater project, a musical, in a disco. In a disco tech. This was 20 years ago. I didnt know what to do. But i thought wouldnt that be fun if people could dance and they were getting a kind of story at the same time. Then years later i read that she loved going to disco in her heyday. She had a mirror ball installed in her new york townhouse. I googled it up at the time. This was some years ago. And i found a video of her dancing under that mirror ball with khashoggi, the arms dealer. And i thought, whoa, there is a story here. And it takes place in that world. In the world of dance clubs and disco techs. So i thought, let me see if i could do some research and see what kind of story there is. The way you tell the story is fascinating. Because youre fundamentally looking at it from a creative place, where youre looking at the idea of theater, disco, fusing those and then you happen upon this story. Did the politics of the story attract you . The more as i did the research, yes. The politics became fascinating and i wondered how i could tell it, how much of it i could tell. Basically in a musical like that, you cant get into the all of details of why did this happen and why did that happen. But i decided to focus on, yes, the story of her rise, her marriage with ferdinand marcos, his declaring martial law, becoming aig dictator in the philippines and them both being ousted peacefully in a demonstration that was called the People Power Revolution. Which is just one of the most beautiful things you could read about and there is a lot of pictures and news was there. The thing that most people know about Imelda Marcos, who remember her from the days, i was in college when all of this happened, was her enormous shoe collection. Somehow that doesnt was that a conscience decision it not go for the obvious. Yeah, we dont mention the shoes at all. Partly because that is baggage that spl of the audience members bring with them. So we have to tell them things that they dont know. And the other reason, which maybe is not the best reason, but the shoes were not discovered until the marcos were airlifted out of the palace in manila. And then the people descended on the palace and go oh, my god, look at this. And but by then, our story is over. When you think about whatu been talking about, it is very relevant right now with the rise of authoritarians everywhere, marcos coming back himself in his own way. Do you think that that was part of the Background Noise that made you that drew you to the story . It certainly seems more relevant now than it did when i was when i first conceived this story. When i first conceived the story, it seems like maybe a somewhat inspiring but isolated incident. And then it just seemed to now today with the democracy under threat all over the place, it seems very relevant. The People Power Revolution that ousted the marcoss bark in the day that was inspiration of egypt, ukraine, whatever, not all of which like the philippines, not all of them managed to main that idealism or maintain the democracy that they were seeking. And in an odd way marcos agreed to be helicoptered out of there out of their country and go to hawaii rather than do what assad did, or stay there and kill as many people as you can. There were a lot of factors that prevented that from happening. A good number of their troops, they did send troops to surround the demonstrators but the troops often abandoned their tanks. They got out and started mingling with the crowd. Through wouldnt fire on them. They refused to fire on their own people. The church, it is a catholic country, the church defected as well. The name of the cardinal is cardinal sin and he went against the marcos as well. So you have all of the big factors working against them. And it does feel as you say like a different time when that time that was seen at the beginning of a wave of democracy movements and now were witnessing is kind of the reversal of many of those including in the philippines. Yes. Next on gps, i ask about the corner of politics and. What happens when they meet. Fast. Reliable. Perfectly orchestrated. The United Statetes postal service. Okayay everyone, our mission is complete balanced nutrition. Together we provide nutrients to support immune, muscle, bone, and heart health. Yaaay woo hoo ensure with 25 vitamins and minerals and ensure complet theres a simple test you can take from anywhere. Try to lay your hand flat against a surface. If you cant, you may have dupuytrens contracture. Talk to a Hand Specialist about your options, including nonsurgical treatments. The chase Ink Business Premier Card is made for people like sam, who make everyday products, designed smarter. Like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. Oh, genius for more breakthroughs like that i need a breakthrough card. Like ours with 2. 5 cash back on purchases of 5,000 or more. Plus unlimited 2 cash back on all other purchases. And with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas a brilliant reality the Ink Business Premier Card from chase for business. Make more of whats yours. More now with my interview with the multihyphenated artist david byrne. Author, playwright and more. Do you think that art and politics, as you say everything is inevitably political, do you think that art should be trying to be more political . I think it yeah, i think art should reflect the world we live in. But art can fall into a trap when it starts to preach. When it becomes a soap box and people are doing that. Why . Because you lose the artist yes. You have to do the art part first. And then the other things could be done by inference and i think an audience gets that. And theyve i think it works sometimes. But it is really difficult to do. To pull off a very pointed political show. Youve done something unusual. Not completely unique but unusual for somebody as celebrated as you. You dont sort of rest on your laurels and go out and do the tour with, you know, playing the great old hits. You are trying projects in neuroscience in denver, youre trying American Utopia here and trying to do this new broadway musical. You could fail in some of these and sometimes the reviews, you know, some have not been that great. Why do you do it at this point in your life, when you could be, Reliving The Flglory Days and raking it in. I grew up in high school in the late 60s and it seems like that was an ideal that was held up. To explore and be curious and try Different Things and try different kinds of music and work there different mediums. That was a possibility. It was held up as this is an ideal. Okay, i like that that. That sounds like fun. And i never, never gave up on that. It is true some things have failed, gotten reviews that were so bad that basically it was shut down. But it is all new and inventive, you try something. You try Something Else and then you go, okay. I dont agree with all of that. But pick yourself up and keep going. Do you think of your work as political . All going back to Talking Heads, do you think that youre trying to convey a political message with your work . I think everything is political. But, not in an obvious way. I dont get up there and preach about issues. I dont write songs about specific issues, really. But it is all in there. Maybe it is a metaphor for Something Else. A song might be a metaphor for Something Else and it does tell people how i feel about things but not in a direct way. This kind of show, a musical that deals with history and politics and personalities, yes, it does get into politics. But, again, it is in a roundabout way. We dont talk about all of the connections between the u. S. And the philippines over the decades. But we have the cast singing about kind of how americanized it became, how they love american products, and all of the things that americans do because they were an American Colony for a long time. And your artistic vision here, to get back to that, was to have broadway turn into a disco. Has it succeeded . Do people dance every night. People dance every night. About not quite half of the audience is on a dance floor. And then the rest is seats. More conventional seating. But half of them are on the dance floor and the cast mingles with them and nobody has to do anything embarrassing. But it is what it is. Well, always a pleasure to talk to you. Thank you. Before we go, i want you to know as far as the staff as gps could recall, david byrne is the most famous guest of the show to have ridden a bike to our interview. Hes a huge advocate for twowheel transport. Thanks to you will aof you for being part of my program this week from aspen. I will see you next week. Tourist taking photos that are analyzed by ai. So resesearchers can help life underwater flourish. Heres how tommy lost 30 lbs onon noom weight. Im tom. Noom helped him use psychology to lose weight. The mindful aspect made me feel more conscious about what i was eating and why i was eating it. Its actually working. Lose weight and make it last with noom weight. 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