celebrate a victory tomorrow, its defeat of the nazis in world war ii. this year the holiday will almost certainly focus on ukraine. but what would victory look like there for either side? and who is most likely to achieve it? we will explore. also, as america gets ready to mark a million dead from covid, bill gates says we're not out of danger yet, not even close. i will talk to him about the pandemic and the inevitable next one. but first here's "my take." as the prospect of roe vs. wade being overturned looms large and races for another round of cultural wars i have been puzzled over why clashes over value seem to be more intense in the united states than elsewhere and why the competing camps seem more divided than before. one key to this might be found in a 2020 pew survey showing on many colonel issues the american political divide was the widest among rich countries surveyed. asked whether the country would be better off in the future if it sticks to its traditions and ways of life, 65% of americans on the right said yes, versus just 6% on the left, a 59-point gap. that compares with a 19-point game in tradition-bound france. as for the being christian is a crucial aspect of being a citizen in the country, the gap was 23 points compared to just 7 points in the uk. these attitudes are fleshed out further in the 2018 pew survey which asks people in several rich countries whether religion should play a larger role in their societies. in america, 71% of people who identified this conservatively said yes and 29% of liberals agree. that difference, 42 percentage points, was off the charts compared to the other countries. the gap was 17 points larger than those in the next-highest countries, canada and poland and four times the gap between right and left in sweden and germany. in the uk, 35% of conservatives wanted religion to play a larger role in their country versus 28% of liberals. a mere seven-point gap. so why is america exceptionally polarized? it's a tough question to answer. many of the forces that seem to be at work, globalization, technological change, immigration, are happening in other western societies as well. in fact, if you use the size of trade in a country's economy as a measure, america is less globalized than many european countries. it's not even special when it comes to immigration. canada and sweden have a larger share of foreign-born people in their societies than does the united states. of course, technology is at work everywhere. in his last book "religions sudden decline" the distinguished social definer ronald inglehart added an answer . he pointed out the shift in times is the decline of religiosity in most countries. when inglehart and his colleagues looked at attitudes on religion from 1981 to 2007, they found out most of the countries studied had become more religious. but between 2007 and 2020, the overwhelming majority became less religious. the standout in the recent studies is the u.s. of a. for a long time america was the outlier in showing that rich, advanced countries can still be religious. in recent years though, it has been reversing course to dramatic effect. since 2007 the u.s. has been secularizing more rapidly than any other country for which we have data, notes ingle heart. adding by one recognized widely criteria it now ranks as the 12th least religious country in the world. inglehart explains this secularization has many causes, mostly related to the decline of group norms, wxxxxs of control and rise of individualism. and here's the interesting part. as the broad place is taking place in the u.s., it's coinciding with increased polarization. so the picture that emerges is of a country that is rapidly secularizing but at the same time seeing a strong backlash to that process. big changes are leading to big reactions. there are other factors at work. always in america, race relations play an important role. this is one other area where the differences between left and right are much more marked than in other countries, as can be seen from the 2020 pew survey. all of this highlights a new reality, you cannot really understand america anymore by looking at averages. it has become two countries. one is urban, more educated, multiracial, secular and largely left of center. the other is rural, less educated, religious, white and largely right of center. inglehart and the scholar cristel russell has a map that plots countries according to their responses to questions about values. as of 2020, america was something of a outlier in the western world, closer to countries like uruguay and vietnam than to sweden and denmark. but if one were to divide america into two countries, one red and one blue, i suspect you would see the blue america would fit comfortably with northern european protestant countries, while red america's culture values would move it closer to nigeria and saudi arabia. for the country's political future, the central question is now this -- can these two americas find a way to live, work, tolerate, and cooperate with one another? if not, the abortion battle may be the precursor to even larger struggles. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started. ♪ earlier this week eight mig fighters practiced flying over moss car square in a z-formation. a one-letter symbol to show its support for its war in ukraine. tomorrow the jets will be taking part in a parade for russia's annual victory day, which commemorates the defeat of the nazis in 1945. 77 years later, however, no such russian victory over ukraine is in sight. i want to bring in jenny cafarella, the chief of staff and national security fellow at the institute for the study of war. welcome, jennifer. tell us, we're all trying to understand, we get the phase one trying to take over kyiv in two, three days fail for the russians. but who is winning phase two, the war taking place in the south and east of ukraine? >> the phase two is still unfortunately in its early stages. there's a lot of war left to be fought. however, what we are seeing on the ground is ukrainian forces able to, first, blunt russian attempts to advance on multiple axies against ukraine and in recent days ukrainian forces exceeding in sustaining a counteroffensive around one of the contested towns of kharkiv and pushing russian forces back. they're pushing russian forces back to see infectively now they have a chance, ukrainian forces, to advance to the russian border and we have the russians destroying bridges as they are retreating. that's an important indicator of the potential ukraine will be able to mount a larger coming offensive in coming weeks and potentially be able to retake syria throughout. >> but what about the level of destruction the russians are wrecking? i mean, if you look at a place like mariupol, technically they don't control it but they've emptied the city, they destroyed 90% of the buildings. is that part of a kind of tragedy the russians have? >> who do they envision is in ukraine it to eliminate ukraine as a nation and as an identity, as a people. so we see what the russian advances into ukraine, a genocidal attempt what it means to be ukrainian and in some cases try to eliminate ukrainian villages completely fundamentally. while i think it is important putin's offensive and his ames are destructive, he's nowhere near of achieving his actual political goals and that's where we need to evaluate the success or failure of the russians or ukrainians. strategically ukrainians are fighting for their right to live and exist as a nation and they're succeeding in that. they won the first face of the war but maintained their unity and rallied to the world of the world in their defense. that's incredibly important. why it doesn't mean ukrainians are suffering any less on the ground, it does mean ukraine has a chance to win this war and results. >> the fear is russia will be able to pour many more men, soldiers into this fight, especially at the may day celebrations, putin would formally declare war rather than a special military operation. if that happened, does that change the game in the sense russians now have recruits they can pour into ukraine? >> there's a lot more ifs. so the answer is not necessarily. first and foremost, new mobilized recruits won't necessarily be combative effective certainly any time soon. the question is how seriously and how capably are the russian going to strain these forces. the russians have taken incredibly high casualties in their experience in combat effective units and sending in individual replacements for killed or wounded soldiers does not create effective or cohesive combat formations. the other factor is it take time. we have mobilization on the russian side, which will take weeks, if not months. but we have momentum on the ukrainian side and i think it's essential for the united states and the west to recognize that now is the time to support ukraine because even if russia declares the mobilization, it doesn't mean that ukraine can't actually still win this war. >> and finally, jennifer, what would it take, you said to me previously, this is a war that is going to be decided by artillery. explain what you mean and what it means. >> the united states has significantly increased the amount of artillery we're providing to the ukrainians, which is essential, but the ukrainians still need more. they need a more robust pipeline which means these weapons and reply needs to get to the ukrainians before they need it, not at the last minute. but the ukrainians are also asking for more advance systems and systems that will provide them more range, which is going to be essential as ukrainians attempt to go on the counteroffensive, which requires them to strike russian targets in more depth and overpower russian forces who are attempting to dig in in order to prevent exactly those kinds of losses to ukraine. >> jennifer, that is a fascinating center inside. thank you so much. next on "gps," the humanitarian crisis caused by this war. nearly 6 million refugees have fled ukraine and those are the ones who are lucky enough to have gotten out. when we come back. my great grandmother started a legacy of education in my family. she ran for state office. had no problems breaking the norms. she had a dream and decided to pursue it. find the strong women in your family with ancestry. if you used shipgo this whole thing wouldn't be a thing. yeah, dad! i don't want to deal with this. oh, you brought your luggage to the airport. that's adorable. with shipgo shipping your luggage before you fly you'll never have to wait around here again. like ever. that can't be comfortable though. shipgo.com the smart, fast, easy way to travel. dr. harmon: we are america's doctors. dr. szilagyi: america's pediatricians. rn grant: we are america's nurses. dr. stewart: america's family physicians. dr. szilagyi: and we want you to know... rn grant: covid vaccines are safe and effective for kids. dr. harmon: my grandkids are vaccinated. dr. szilagyi: mine are too. dr. stewart: what's not safe... dr. harmon: is getting covid. rn grant: we want you to know - we trust the covid vaccines. dr. stewart: for ourselves. dr. harmon: for our patients. dr. szilagyi: for our kids. rn grant: so should you. ♪ ♪ what do you think healthier looks like? ♪ ♪ with a little help from cvs... ...you can support your nutrition, sleep, immune system, energy...even skin. and before you know it, healthier can look a lot like...you. ♪ ♪ cvs. healthier happens together. once upon a time, at the magical everly estate, landscaper larry and his trusty crew... were delayed when the new kid totaled his truck. timber... fortunately, they were covered by progressive, so it was a happy ending... for almost everyone. cal: our confident forever plan is possible with a cfp® professional. a cfp® professional can help you build a complete financial plan. visit letsmakeaplan.org to find your cfp® professional. ♪ the first lady, jill biden, ventured into ukraine today after spending time on in mother's day across the border in slovakia, meeting with mothers and children who had fled the war zone. they are among the nearly 6 million ukrainian refugees from the floor. those left behind in ukraine fame homelessness, hunger, injury and death. this is safe to say ukraine is a humanitarian nightmare. david miliband is just back from there. he's the president and ceo of the international rescue committee, and, of course, a former british foreign secretary. david, tell us what you can about where you were and what you can tell us of the state and mood of the ukrainian people. >> yeah, i was in moldova and central ukraine visiting city class and clients. three things came through overwhelmingly from every conversation. first, the sheer scale as a result of the fighting. you rightly highlighted 3 million refugees into neighboring streets but there's 7, 8 million on the run inside their own country. in perspective, it took eight months for people to flee syria. this war has been going on for not three months and we have 12 million, 13 million, 14 million people on the run. secondly, fear stalks every conversation and in it below the surface there's desperate fear of a phone call that a husband, father, brother has been killed. as i was talking to women from ukraine in moldova, one gets a call, it's my son, there's a missile strike. excuse me, i have to go and talk to him. the fear is rightly there. and the overwhelming response in the western world to donate financial support means this is a much better funded humanitarian support in the rest of the world. that means organizations like the irc, we can deliver the support for health care, deliver cash assistance to allow people to buy in the shops. there's normality in large parts of the country despite the fact missile strikes are taking place. >> is the ukrainian government in this chaos actually functioning in this? >> yes, that's very important. the u.n. has to organize a health cluster or cash cluster, here you have an ukrainian government in large parts of the country organizing the health system, making sure different parts of the country are getting the supplies they need. international ngos, local civil societies working closely. there's also a functioning economy, which is absolutely critical. the best thing you can do for someone who is in humanitarian distress is give them cash so they can support themselves through the local economy, people having to rent in europe if they arrive but also inside ukraine, that's very important. one other thing, often people think the trauma side of this, the mental health side of this is a sideshow. it's absolutely central. every single person is traumatized by what they and their country are going through and, of course, they don't know how long this is going to go on. the response in germany where i also was, people i met, they were housing ukrainians and it's one thing to do it for two days, two weeks, two months. they don't know if this is going to be two years and that's requiring a massive mobilization. of course, if the sort of fighting that your previous guest jennifer from the institute from the study of war, if that fighting carries on, if that offensive carries on, you can have another 5 million fleeing into europe and that becomes a huge logistical as well as political challenge. >> so what you're describing is a situation that's fairly normal because you're not in the places where there was the most active fighting going on but weren't their missile strikes and what does that do to a city to sort of randomly and sporadically have these missiles destroying civilian areas? >> that is a great point. what you have is a split screen and 20th century war going on in the east and south battle lines. you have been hearing about kharkiv this morning. and the rest of the country you hear asymmetric, you don't know where the strike will come, odesa, lviv. and that's increasing the fear even though it's not a front line. and i think it's really important as we keep in mind planning for different scenarios, humanitarian scenarios going forward. >> you then went from ukraine to germany. everyone is wondering, are the germans fully behind this? there is the spat going on even between the ukrainian government and german government because the germans have been so russian. the ukrainians would argue certainly the social democrats, dependent on russian energy, what is your sense of whether germany has really transformed itself on this issue? >> i think it has, and i think there's a really important category error being made around the world, especially in some of the commentary. germans are at an elite level, some of the whom i met at the senior reaches of government, but also at a local level, they really made a fundamental move in their own geopolitical positions and their own assessment of russia. however, they do this with deliberation, with caution, with the opposite of machismo. there's no machismo about doubling your defense budget in germany. there's a real sense of responsibility arriving from history. and i think it's incredibly important we don't mistake this caution, deliberation, with an absence of determination. i felt from the german leadership i met but also german civil society, they know this is deadly serious. they know it requires fundamental change in how they position themselves, but they also know they have to be in it from the long haul and that takes real care, real planning, real determination. >> i suppose for people in europe and the world, it is not a bad thing there's not too much german machismo. >> no, and that's the point. we should be humble about that because there's determination and we should know it too. >> david miliband, always a pleasure. next on "gps," bill gates and how to prevent the next pandemic. at clearchoice was going to afford her that permanent solution. 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>> well, it comes on top of the pandemic, where government debt levels were already very, very high and there were already some supply chain problems. and so it's likely to accelerate the inflationary problems that third world economies have and force an increase in energy rates which will eventually result in an economic slowdown. i'm afraid the bears on this one have a pretty strong argument that concerns me a lot, 4- particularly because the poor countries, whenever the rich countries have these big-budget problems, the health needs of places like africa, get deprioritized. >> let's talk about the book. what's really important, it seems to me, is that you're reminding us not only is this pandemic not over but we need to try to think about how to prevent the next one. and not forget that that -- that we didn't do so well on the last one. first, let's just talk about you made the point that you could end up with variants that are transmissible and more lethal. i think we've tended to assume that what you're going to see is an extension of the pattern we've seen, which is more transmissible variants but much less lethal. you're saying that doesn't have -- it doesn't have to keep going that way? >> no, we've been lucky, and i think there's a good chance we'll keep being lucky, but you can see a variant that had worse health effects. and right now the covid is very dangerous for older people or people with some medical conditions but a lot of people not a risk of death. so we're not out of this one. and a lot of the innovations we need like vaccines that provide longer protection, broader protection, those can help us for this pandemic and we need them for the future. it's hard to overstate how unprepared we were for -- in what was sadly even somewhat predictable. so hopefully this is our big wake-up call to do like we do for earthquake and fire and war, to really be able to respond correctly. >> so, bill, let's imagine the next pandemic, okay? it starts up as many of these have started up some way in asia, probably east asia, for a whole variety of reasons. what is the bill gates plan? what would you like to see happen, the first time you hear about some people getting infected by some kind of airborne virus? >> yeah, the big risk is human-to-human transmissible respiratory virus. you'd like to have a group connected with the world health organization that sees that outbreak early and is able to go in and look and sequence what it is, understand the nature of that, have some tools that aren't dependent on a specific pathogen that you can give people not just math bit also some drugs to block transmission and you want to stop it before it gets to a lot of countries, which is when it becomes a so-called pandemic. you have to nip it in the bud. these things are exponential. avoiding cases here, you know, saves lots of cases downstream. >> as you point out in the book, if we had stopped covid, what was it, by the middle of march, the number of people who could have died would have been -- >> a fraction of what it is now. >> that's right. >> to recognize you have a problem and do containment counts a lot. some countries like australia ended up with 10% of the death rate that the rich countries, including the united states had, and they moved a bit faster to get diagnosis and quarantine policies in place and that's a big difference, 90% of all of the lives that we lost would have been saved. >> next on "gps," bill gates says we need a germ team. what does that mean? he'll explain. 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>> no, it's tiny. compared to the numbers we talk about with the defense budgets -- >> or what we end up spending on covid for the relief we had to give people for the lockdowns, in the trillions. >> yes, we're $14 million economic damage and still counting. and so it's one of the cheapest insurance policies. you got to make sure the people stay full time getting us to drill and practice, which is hard for things that don't come around very often. for earthquakes, it's often or fires, it reminds you, there could be a big one. in terms of disease going global, it doesn't happen much, but it will be happening more either, as you say, asia is a big risk or africa is a big risk because the boundary between humans and animals is getting closer and closer. >> what strikes me about the book is you don't talk about what seems to be a central dilemma, if not the central dilemma. we're living in an age of increasing nationalism. i can't see -- look what happened this time. the chinese government basically refused to allow people in, refused to -- they did sequence and they shared that. but other than that, they were very protective. how do you get around that? >> they were a bit slower in reading the war both domestically and locally as they should have been. most outside of china made sure the sequence got out by january 14th. that was enough time. i do worry if the outbreak was in a very poor country with bad health structure, unless we have various trip wires where we see and send in global expertise, you could fester for quite some time. so every day counts in a big way. is the world more nationalistic than the past? the world has always been pretty nationalistic. and yet we're in this together. it's not like china's escaped completely from the ravages. we all participate in the global economy. so i think the world health community is up to the task despite the polarization. >> but back to the nationalism, because it does strike me as such a central problem. and living with more tariffs than before. i mean, it's not just china that's going the made in china, it's india doing made in india. when ppe stuff happened, everyone is like we need to make the stuff at home. there's much greater sense of resilience, onshoring. in that world, how do you get through this idea you need a global response, global team, everyone has to be willing to share data. >> there are problems like some terrorism things, certainly climate change for the world that has to work together. the supply chain that created these new vaccines was very global. a german country with turkish immigrants drawing on u.s.-funded science partnered up with a big -- with pfizer taking no government money and creating a completely novel vaccine platform that had not been used before. there's a lot of great stories about how the world came together. our foundation funded india and they ramped up the astrazeneca oxford vaccine and made $1.4 billion. a lot of those got used in india and a lot of lives were saved. if you really get a parkive on health pandemic conditions, you're really in trouble. it's okay to fund a few mask factories but you need all of the data coming together, need the best scientists inventing new drugs and running trials that will cross many countries. i'm not giving up that global cooperation will happen because it's very hard, particularly for lower-income countries to stop these things without the world working cooperatively. >> looking for silver linings, one of the things you talk about, which i thought was really interesting is the clearly the pandemic causes a lot of mental health issues, distress and things like that. but you point out that this is an area where digitization has actually provided a surprising kind of upside or solution. explain. >> so the idea of video conferencing is very much a niche thing, even though it's been a world fairs forever. there were a few people who did that. but during the pandemic, any engagement, sales meeting, meeting with a doctor, having a funeral, people are forced to say, hey, can we do that digitally? the software improved a lot. i think the medical vertical particularly for behavioral mental-type consultation will be forever changed. and we will all think, do i need to go to that convention? can it be online? my way of gaining on african leaders with health issues wads made far more conditions for a block of time as they set aside for health organizations to take 20-minute blocks and succinctly discuss an issue with them. so i think that is a very positive thing. and the software involved is going to get a lot better. so it's -- i wouldn't underestimate that that accelerated digitization including health and education substantially. >> finally, bill, i have to ask you one question. you are probably one of the most admired people in the world, not just in the united states, you make the top of these lists and people have asked you the secrets for your success. everything from, what do you drink? what do you read? since we last talked, you have had a setback. as i say i have been through divorce myself and a lot of people regard it as a failure. do you regard it as a failure, and what lesson did you draw from it? >> certainly i feel bad about the mistakes i made, contributed to it, so yes, it's a failure. i'm very lucky i get to keep working with melinda, who created the foundation, and we get to take the resources from microsoft and from warren buffett's generosity and have a lot of impact. it's a humbling experience. i don't have the answers in those realms like i hope i do in things like climate technology or vaccine technology. >> bill gates, thank you and always a pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. next on "gps," ferdinand and imelda marcos will be remembered by their history. he for his destructive rule of the philippines, she for her extraordinary excesses, especially her shoe collection. despite all of that, their son looks likely to be elected president of the philippines tomorrow. how? that story when we come back. ti, at the magical everly estate, landscaper larry and his trusty crew... were delayed when the new kid totaled his truck. timber... fortunately, they were covered by progressive, so it was a happy ending... for almost everyone. 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ask your health care provider today about once-weekly ozempic®. ♪ oh, oh, oh, ozempic®! ♪ you may pay as little as $25 for a 3-month prescription. i strip on public transit. i strip with the guys. i strip all by myself. breathe right strips open your nose for relief you can feel right away, helping you take in air more easily, day or night. . . now for the last look. the tension between liberal democracy and authoritarian populism we've seen play out across europe is facing a new test and entirely different part of the world. i'm talking about the fill peebs where voters will go to the polls in the most consequence shl election in the country's recent history to choose a president to replace the current one. if you think that duterte's brutal regime with the deadly war on drugs have tipped the scales in favor of democracy, you may be wrong. as the journalist sheila corona writes, the current front runner is the only son of the country's notorious former dictator ferdinand marcos who alongside his wife became international symbols of brutality, excess, and corruption during his decades' long reign. over his time in office, he accumulated $10 billion by some estimates as the guardian writes, he invoked a period of martial law that lasted a decade where adversaries, student leaders and writers were tortured and more than 3,000 killed. it all came to an end in 1986 when hundreds of thousands took to the streets in protest of marcos's rule. the philippines like many countries has fallen victim to a dangerous backsliding. one has refused to apologize for his father's rule. he has been convicted of tax evasion and mischaracterized his education at oxford and indicated if elected president, he would protect duterte against prosecution for his drug war in the international criminal court. yet marcos junior leads the polls according to one survey, he's at 58%. his closest competitor, the current philippines vice president has run on democratic reform, good governance, transparency. she has criticized the brutality of duterte. she's polling at around 39%. it is born of the country's failures to fully reckon with the past. marcos senior was never convicted of a crime in the country's courts. some of which are staffed with people appointed during his rule. the billions the family em embezzled haven't been fully recovered. marcos whose thousands of pairs of shows became an emblem of corruption has been elected to the house of representatives four times since her husband's oust. as for his son, he has benefitted from a high degree of nostalgia for the supposed lost glory of his father's rule. textbooks the end not to grapple with the brutal legacy. marcos is extremely adept at manipulating the message online. as "the washington post" reports, videos abound on tiktok that glorify and romanticize the history. rumors float that if elected marcos will distribute gold to the public. this web of disinformation is extremely effect i. about 99% of filipinos are online, and over half of them can't identify fake news when they see it. what's happening in the philippines is just another version of the same nostalgia fuelled populism we've seen all over the world. in the context of russia's invasion of ukraine, it has new-found resonance. the philippines democratic transition occurred five years before the fall of the society union. the constitution of 198 7 was a moment of hope. crucially it established term limits. but ultimately, the work was incomplete. reform stalled. the past was forgotten. then dressed up and paraded as glory. what we see in the philippines is just one example of the contest playing out across the world. let's hope for a better outcome there and elsewhere. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. don't forget if you miss a show go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my podcast. ♪he'd better not take the ring from me.♪ (all): all hail, caesar! pssst julius! you should really check in with your team on ringcentral. oh hi caesar. we were just talking about you. yeah, you should probably get out of here. ♪ ringcentral ♪ i don't just play someone brainy on tv - i'm an actual neuroscientist. and i love the science behind neuriva plus. unlike ordinary memory supplements, neuriva plus fuels six key indicators of brain performance. more brain performance? 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