we're following two major developing stories. secretary of state antony blinken is in ukraine this morning, and warning that russia has already amassed more than 100,000 forces on its border with ukraine and it could double on relatively short order. ahead of blinken's crucial meeting with his russian counterpart on friday in geneva, he made clear to russia that there are only two paths, diplomacy or consequences. >> the world is watching what's happening here. when russia uses its strength to act with impunity against another sovereign nation, it makes other countries think that they, too, can violate the rules of international peace and security and put their narrowed strefts ahead of the strefts of the community. >> the attorney general says she's uncovered significant evidence of what she calls misleading and fraudulent -- ivanka trump and don jr. more on that investigation in a moment. first let's get to cnn national security correspondent kylie atwood at the state department. secretary blinken just spoke after meeting with ukraine's foreign minister. what came out of this meeting? >> reporter: pretty significant news from the secretary of state this morning, saying russia has about 100,000 troops on ukraine's border that we know. he went further and said russia could double that number on relatively short order. that is hugely significant. it's not just about the number of troops that russia has, but it's about the plans and capacity that they have for bolstering those troop levels to a higher number so they could then potentially invade ukraine. the other thing the secretary was asked about in this press conference with his ukrainian counterpart was what the u.s. would consider doing in terms of more military sis sentence to ukraine. he wasn't specific about what that assistance would look like. if, of course, russia does invade ukraine, but our reporting is there have been conversations about providing more military assistance and what exactly that would look like is still being debated. listen to what the secretary said about that possibility today. >> should russia carry through with any aggressive intent and renew its aggression and invade ukraine, we'll provide additional material beyond that that is already in the pipeline and that will further aid in defending ukraine. >> another aspect that was central to blinken's conversations with the ukrainians today was how to prepare for the meeting that blinken is going to be having on friday with the russian foreign minister. he said he consulted, he coordinated with his ukrainian counterpart about how to broach that meeting. one thing he also said is he's not going to be presenting the russian foreign minister with written responses to the proposals russia put on the table last week. the reason that is significant is because russia has been persistently saying they need written responses. blinken has said, look, we're not going to be doing that. we still don't know what russia's central demands are here. he wants to have a conversation to try and see if they can identify what is at the heart of russia's demands and if there is a diplomatic path forward. >> already a lot of conversations. kylie atwood, thanks very much. joining me republican congressman michael mccaul of texas. congressman, thanks so much for taking the time this morning. >> thanks, jim. thanks for having me. >> you hear secretary blinken's warning that russia could double its already significant forces on the border. in your view, has the current mix of threatened sanctions and additional military assistance, has that deterrence failed? >> yeah. i don't think we're providing the deterrence necessary to stop putin from invading ukraine, the bread basket of russia. he wants to reclaim the old soviet empire and i don't see a lot of deterrence on the table. in fact, jim, what i'm seeing is prelude to war when you're seeing live exercises on the ukrainian border, a false flag operation that they're going to use as a pretense to warfare to invade ukraine. russia is pulling out its embassy members out of kiev. and finally these joint exercises with belarus right on the border of ukraine is disturbing in addition to the russian troops, tanks and the triad operation land and sea. >> let me ask you this: the current mix of weapons that nato has been sending there, javelin antitank missiles, also plan pad shoulder missiles, the intention, as you know better than me, is to raise the military and personnel costs for russia if it were to choose to invade to make it bloodier. what specifically have you not seen in terms of assistance that you want to see? >> i sign off on all foreign military weapon sales including ukraine. i would like to see -- i introduced a bill to provide more lethal assistance, again with respect to the triad. remember, he wants control of the black sea. he got crimea. he wants owed des is a. he cut off our l andg exports from the united states. i would like to see that. honestly in my discussions, both classified and no nfn, i don't think we can provide enough to stop aggression. what i think is a buildup and presence in our nato ally nations on the eastern flank, that being poland, that being romania, that being the baltic states. that would send a signal to putin that there would be a consequence to this action. barring that, i think he views, particularly after afghanistan when he sees a weakness and we're projecting weakness, you're seeing with president xi, the ayatollah and kim jong-un, and putin sees this. >> should the u.s. keep a potential nato military response on the table? in other words, put differently, was it a mistake to take a military response by the u.s., by nato, by the west, off the table? >> i think it's a huge mistake. that's the only deterrence we can have. we can arm ukraine with lethal weapons, but it takes time to train and prepare for that. we're talking a very aggressive short timetable. in the classified space -- i can't go into detail -- this plan is very specific and very aggressive in its timetable, so we need to send a very bold message of deterrence. and the that, in my judgment would be, you know what? we did move 10,000 troops out of germany and into poland. let's have the troop exercises in the baltic states and show to putin that, you know, the rhetoric is one thing, but you have to have the action to back it up. >> let me ask you this about economic sanctions, because to date the administration's response has been here is what we're going to do if you invade as opposed to preemptively. you've talked a lot about nord stream. should the u.s. sanction nord stream today to deter invasion rather than wait for toe tenlly what russia may do on the ground? >> i disagree with the president waiving to allow putin to build his pipeline into europe, cutting off u.s. exports into owed des is a and the black sea. it only emboldened putin and made russia dependent on dirty engine. by the way, our lng is more clean from a climate change standpoint. these are all projections of weakness that i disagreed with at the time. i think it's emboldened putin. he's got to make the calculation, is this the right time to do it. >> you're very aware a big part of putin's strategy is straight-up propaganda. it's been notable to see some in this country repeat, frankly, some of russia's arguments about ukraine. i want to play something that tucker carlson said last night regarding putin and russia's view of ukraine. have a listen. >> imagine if mexico fell under the direct military control of china. we would see that as a threat, of course. there would be no reason for that. that's how russia views nato control of ukraine. why wouldn't they? >> does this help russia to have prominent americans repeat, in effect, their rationale for military action in ukraine? >> i talked to wendy sherman, deputy secretary, we want to have a unified front as americans against putin and the russians. this would be the largest invasion in europe since world war ii if it happens. i think being united, but we have a difference of opinion, and i told her to use me as maybe a foil. i don't like the rhetoric that somehow putin is a good guy. i don't like the rhetoric that -- this soviet -- it goes back to -- he wants to reclaim the glory of the old soviet empire. you're talking about democracies versus authoritarianism. this is absolutely critical to nato and it's a direct threat to nato. if we don't take a stand to stop this, i'm afraid, as you asked me in the beginning, it's more likely that they will invade. as jen psaki said, she said russia could at any point launch an attack. i agree with her. that's why this is so important. it's a very high-stakes game. i don't like playing into putin's hands. >> i hear you. one question on january 6th. after january 6th you condemned president trump. you didn't vote to impeach. at the time you said, i truly fear there may be more facts that will come to light in the future that will put me on the wrong side of this debate. it's been a year. you're aware of the committee's worth. it's revealed a heck of a lot of stuff. do you feel you might have seen evidence nou that might have changed your vote? >> it was a very dark day. i don't like the way it's been spun, revisionist history. it was very dark, a dark day in this capitol. i will tell you my biggest concern at that time was why wasn't the national guard deployed. you can point fingers at a lot of people including pelosi as to why they didn't have the guard as an unseen asset. i chaired homeland security. i get that stuff, where the guard could have been close by to respond. they weren't. and lives were lost. i think it would have been stopped a lot earlier. >> congressman michael mccaul, thank you for joining the program. >> thanks, jim. thanks for having me. jim, fascinating interview and really ominous to hear him say the u.s. needs to present a united front here. we see that same problem happening in europe, where a lot of the eastern european members of nato are wanting to see more of that aggressive response. there seems to be some disagreement with other major countries there. >> and increased pessimism from both democratic and republican lawmakers close to this issue. still ahead, a lot has happened since president biden's last news conference in november. next, how he will have to tackle multiple crises from the white house podium today. plus the trump organization is responding after the new york attorney general said its investigation found significant omissions and misleading statements in the organization's financial documents, and the fight to stop the big lie does not just focus on politicians. >> who are these 35,000 people who mailed in ballots? you need to find out, super mom. >> why a math teacher is turning heads in the world of election fraud influencers later this hour. 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no problem. yeah. success starts with intuit quickbooks. happening right now, senate democrats are on capitol hill debating their proposed bill to change election laws, trying to get closer at least to a floor vote. we should note, as we've said many times, it stands virtually no chance of passing. we expect a vote later today to break the gop filibuster. that also expected to fail. we are learning that senator joe manchin says he is planning to speak on the floor this afternoon about exactly why he opposes those rules changes. meantime, this afternoon president biden will hold a press conference at the white house on the eve of his one-year anniversary in office. he's entering his second year with one of the lowest approval ratings for a modern day president. what should we expect to hear this afternoon? joining me to discuss is former pennsylvania governor and dnc chair ed rendell and nina turner, former ohio state senator and chairman of bernie sanders' presidential campaign. the president is expected to tout his successes this year. the unkplamt rate at 3.9%. more americans have been vaccinated. they are sending out hundreds of millions of tests and masks. do you think that's enough for this administration to take a victory lap about? >> sure. understand we went from 2 million americans being vaccinated to over 200 million americans being fully vaccinated. great achievement, and people said it couldn't be done. secondly, the economy is coming right back, first with the american rescue plan which saved millions of small businesses and families from going bankrupt and going out of business entirely. that was a hugely successful rescue operation. so we've seen tremendous progress. the economy, our growth has exceeded china's for the first time in 20 years. this economy is humming and we haven't even factored in the infrastructure bill which was going to really skyrocket the economy. if this was donald trump's first year in office, he would be saying it was the greatest successful year in the history of our country. it's been not quite as good as that, but it's been an awfully goodyear that joe biden doesn't get adequate credit for. >> nina, do you agree with what the governor said? do you think american households are sitting around the dining room table that says our growth has exceeded that of china and this has been a great year? we're still talking about inflation at multi-decade highs. just a lot of, quite frankly, covid fatigue. the governor mentioned the infrastructure bill. there have been quite a few failures, from voting rights legislation that's taking place right now. we know that's not going to get passed. there aren't enough votes for that, and the build back better plan. >> it's really about what people can feel. while the facts, as the governor laid them out, are true. it is what is the impression in everyday households around this country. as you stated, gas prices are up, food prices are up, people are really not feeling that. when it comes to the infrastructure bill, absolutely we need to repair our roads, our bridges, our airports, bring broadband all across this country as we know, the worldwide web, the internet. it is a necessity now. there is a "however" to that. we need to measure success based on what big mamma and big daddy has to say. i happen to live in the largest poor city in the country right now. the everyday people are not saying those things are impacting them. again, on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, the players that usually benefit from those kinds of things are going to be the ones that continue to benefit the corporations. by the time the people feel the impact, we may be closer to the end of this year. so the president can go out there and tout everything that the governor just said. i also believe that the president needs to take some fdr moves and really relate to some of the suffering and the pain. people who are inside the bubble can say, oh, yeah, the unemployment rate is down. well, a lot of people are leaving their jobs. a lot of unions as we know, especially in the latter part of 2021 were picketing and went on strike because they need better wages and better work conditions and just a better situation. decency, dignity, pride and work. so we have a longer way to go in this country so that everyday people feel it, and not just people with fancy titles. >> ed, let me pick up on that. as we heard from nina, she says the president needs an fdr move. one could argue that's what he was trying to pursue and had been pressured to do just that in his first year. let's be blunt. that's not necessarily how things played out. there is an argument now to go smaller, to have something to show voters as we're just months away from the midterm elections. do you think nina is right, that he should still pursue that fdr move, or should he try to get anything he can at this point? >> i think nina is right about the facts i laid out and what ordinary people feel. nina, you will admit that in the american rescue plan, there were things that saved ordinary people, the child care tax credit, for example, that added $7,000 to families with two children. that was enormously impactful. we've got to put those things in and change the economic equation in the long run, but there's work to be done. i think it can be done, and i think it will be done. i think the way we're going to do it is if build back better can't be passed as one piece of the legislature, let's take each individual part of it, particularly the most popular ones like using prescription drug prices and force the republicans to vote on the record yea or nay, making that child care tax credit permanent. let's force the republicans to vote on that one piece of legislation yea or nay. you'll be amazed, nina, how fast we'll pass that stuff and get moving. not all of it, but a good hunk of it. >> nina, we're expected to hear from senator manchin again today to explain why he doesn't believe the filibuster should be done away with. this follows kyrsten sinema doing the same thing, giving the speech right before, really preempting the president's visit and some would say embarrassing him before he went to meet behind closed doors with senators pushing it to make a carveout in terms of voting rights reform. i was thinking about what president obama accused the democrats of doing, and that's turning into a circular firing squad. the attention has been for much of the year on the infighting within the democratic party and not as much with what republicans are doing to disrupt any legislation that the democrats are trying to push forward. should that change? are democrats harming themselves? >> well, the republicans have lost their ever-loving minds to quote my grandmother. the democrats have to be the ones to stand up for the people. filibuster must be we formed, as far as i'm concerned, do away with the rule. they're acting like it's -- the fact that senators manchin and certainly senator sinema embarrassed the president the very next day. the squad was absolutely right. they said do not decouple the infrastructure bill from the build back better bill because what we need is physical infrastructure and human infrastructure. so not only is the filibuster standing in the way of expanding and protecting voting rights, it is standing in the way, as a matter of fact, for the president's -- most of the president's agenda. so what can senator manchin say other than the fact that he is an extremist, him and senator sinema are extremists, and anybody hiding behind them are extremists. because when you want to put your political concerns over democracy, when you serve in some of the highest offices of the land, then something is wrong with you. that is why i do believe firmly that the president, not only the vision of fdr, but he's got to take the message and the spirit that fdr had. call out these folks, say i welcome up your -- >> ed rendell, nina turner, thank you as always, we appreciate it. president biden will hold that news conference today at 4:00 p.m. eastern. of course watch it here live on cnn. i'll pick this onene up. i earn 3% cash back on dinining including takeout with chase freedom unlimiteted. so, it's not a problem at all. you guys aren't gonna give me the fake bill fight? 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>> well, i'll believe that when i see it. sidney powell and especially rudy giuliani are under criminal investigation and any sane lawyer would advise them to take the fifth. i'm seern rudy giuliani will take the fifth. sidney powell may show up and answer questions. i would be surprised if she engaged substantively with the committee. >> we have news from the new york attorney general. the big picture is that the trump organization played both sides of the ledger to reduce their tax burden. this is a civil case here. based on what you've seen so far from the attorney general, do they have a case and where does it go from here? >> this is an amazing document. the level of detail is extraordinary, and the lying that trump apparently engaged in is so extraordinary. let me give you an example. one of the issues is the valuation of his condo in trump tower on fifth avenue in new york. in some documents he says the condo had 30,000 square feet. in other documents he said it has 10,000 square feet. now the condo is a place in the world. it can be measured, and the idea that he would lie about the size of an apartment that can be measured is just indicative of the level of lying that's accused here. this is relevant to both the new york da's criminal investigation as well as the civil investigation. there's a lot of overlap here, and i think it's a very serious case. i think the president and his family has a serious problem if these submissions, one to get a loan, one to keep your taxes low, are as false as they appear. >> most people's houses would fit into that square footage many times over. jeffrey toobin, i know we'll be talking about this again. thanks for coming in. >> you can measure. you can get a tape measure and rule and that's just a fact in the world. >> it's also a fact that he embellished a lot, exactly. >> jeffrey toobin, thanks so much. coming up next, a portrait of the big lie and how it's threatening future elections. an ohio math teacher turned election fraud influencer is getting big audiences across the country. h of sea salt. it's like a double double for your tastebuds. subway keeps refreshing and refreshing and refreshing... i didn't know my genetic report could tell me i was prone to harmful blood clots. i travel a ton, so this info was kind of life changing. maybe even lifesaving. ♪do you know what the future holds?♪ psoriatic arthritis, made my joints stiff,... ...swollen, painful. emerge tremfyant®. tremfya® is approved to help reduce joint symptoms in adults with active psoriatic arthritis. some patients even felt less fatigued. serious allergic reactions may occur. tremfya® may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to. emerge tremfyant® with tremfya®... ask you doctor about tremfya® today. can dove stop 98% of daily hair damage? 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"how long do i have to wait here?" healthcare makes many of us feel anxious, confused, exposed, and overwhelmed—but it doesn't have to be that way. letsgetchecked offers virtual care with home health testing. take the test. get your results. and get the treatment you need. letsgetchecked. care can be this good. a math and science teacher is fueling the big lie by traveling to dozens of states, speaking to audiences and convincing them his debunked election conspiracy theories that merit. >> he's claiming he discovered an algorithm proving the 2020 election was stolen despite no evidence of widespread voter fraud as we've seen in courts. cnn's sara murray has the details. >> just about every county in the country was hacked. >> reporter: this is how the big lie that the 2020 election was stolen gets even bigger. >> i'm standing against a whole establishment that's saying, oh, that was the cleanest election in history. >> reporter: that's douglas frank who has traveled to texas and dozens of other states with the financial backing of either exxon spire see-minded americans, saying he uncovered an algorithm saying the election was stolen. he's concerned his findings could land donald trump back in the oval office. >> let's do a do-over or put trump back in office. >> reporter: his findings have been debunked and more than a year later there's still no evidence of widespread fraud. frank is winning audiences with lawmakers, election officials and voters across the country. >> e with ear going into each state clandestinely and i meet privately with legislators and secretaries of states and attorney generals. >> reporter: he's one in an army of foot soldiers inspired by donald trump's election lies, now trying to convince others that the 2020 election was stolen. >> who are these 35,000 people who mailed in ballots? you need to find out, super mom. >> reporter: frank is connected with women he calls super moms who are clamoring for post election audits, running door-knocking campaigns and advocating for hand-count-only elections. >> in colorado we are a red state. >> there's absolutely no way that joe biden legitimately won the state of pennsylvania. >> we stand our ground here in new hampshire and need a real audit. >> if you don't know who i am, i'm the guy that mr. lindell discovered. >> reporter: he has the backing of my pillow ceo mike lindell, a deep pocketed purveyor of election disinformation. >> we have poured so many resources into this. now you can help out and get a good night's sleep. i'm offering the lowest price ever on queen my pillows. >> mr. lindell flew his private jet to pick me up to take me to meet with the secretary of s state. >> reporter: frank has crisscrossed the country sharing his fraud claims wrapped in a fancy sounding mathematical equation. >> i was the perfect person in the world to discover this. i have exactly the right skills. >> they're inflating registration rolls, stuffing ballots and cleaning it up afterwards. >> reporter: experts say frank's conclusions are nonsense. >> he's much better to presenting himself as a professor than even myself. he gets up, has a bow tie, has about a six-order polynomial. >> reporter: he looked at the data in 42 states and found the algorithm to be worthless. >> you uncover there's no basis for this. but if you're not someone who, like me, spends all day working on statistics and data, six-order polynomials and nearly perfect correlations, it sounds like he's uncovered something really impressive. >> reporter: frank uses the number of registered voters by age group to predict voter turn ourt, then ak claims it's evidence of fraud when it aligns with actual ovoter turnout. >> he says anything you measure is closely related to itself. >> reporter: debunking the claims wasn't difficult for alabama secretary of state jon merrill who met with lindell and frank on two october skagss. >> every time they gave us an example, we were able to refute what they showed us without even knowing what they were going to do. >> reporter: frank blamed the complete botch in alabama to his newly hired staffer. >> people say we know that other states are wrong, but we think kentucky must be right. i say how do you know? they have no idea. they just assume. i said that's kind of the problem. >> reporter: kentucky state senator adrien southworth says she came away knowing the problem was plagued. it was just one of frank's stops on his nationwide tour. in missouri, a voter fraud is real boot camp had a flyer calling on county clerks to attend. the mesa county clerk is under investigation by the fbi for her alleged involvement in a security breach. in montana, the montana free press he met with staffers for the attorney general. here in texas, harris county elections administrator says a scam like frank describes with widespread hacking and phantom votes would never succeed. >> if you even change a period, a period in the election programming, it sends up a red flag that immediately stops the entire process until we can identify what would have triggered that red flag. >> reporter: in harris county alone, election officials inspect thousands of voting machines. >> six months out we start checking all 13,000 pieces of voting equipment in harris county opening them up, do they turn on, have they been tampered with, can we take them to a voting location, are all the buttons working. >> reporter: they run tests and on election day they track the number of people showing up to vote and the number of ballots cast. one of many safeguards that would catch an election inflated with phantom voters. >> would be would have to find a way to break into the voter rolls in every county? >> in tandem, breaking into multiple buildings, multd systems in tandem with not a single flag going off in this incredibly complex system all in unison as you have all eyes from all of the election staff. >> texas might be turning purple. don't believe it. you're red. >> reporter: he sat down for an interview with cnn and defended his efforts . >> it will be a constitutional crisis. it will be a crisis. it's going to happen. it's inevitable it's going to happen. i'm helping that happen, yes. >> reporter: he stands by his flawed conclusions regardless of the many experts that debunked him. >> regardless of who wins, i want them to be fair. >> reporter: jim and bianna, demand for his bogus presentation isn't dying down. across the country people are still footing his travel bill to hear him speak. >> a scam comes in many forms including a mathematician in a bow tie. >> and it's false, disproven so many times. clearly there are some folks who can't be convinced by facts. coming up, the biden administration is in court today to defend a controversial trump-era policy. more on the immigration stance it wants to keep using ahead. ...can uncover clearer skin and improve symptoms at 16 weeks. serious allergic reactions may occur. tremfya® may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to. emerge tremfyant® with tremfya®... ask you doctor about tremfya® today. i'm jonathan lawson here to tell you about life insurance through the colonial penn program. if you're age 50 to 85, and looking to buy life insurance on a fixed budget, remember the three ps. what are the three ps? 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