republican challenger jack ciattarelli neck and neck with incumbent phil murphy. there are still votes outstanding. mostly it seems from democratic areas. we will show you exactly where in just a moment. but the fact that it is even close, being claimed as a success for republicans. >> we have sent the message to the entire country. every single time it's gone too far off track, the people of this state have pushed, pulled, and prodded it right back to where it needs to be. sometime real soon, we're going to do this again. like we're doing it right now, and we will declare a victory. >> the overall themes of election night are clear. a huge swing to republicans and a wake up call for democrats. cnn projecting republican glenn youngkin will be the next governor of virginia. youngkin made education a center piece of his campaign against democrat terry mcauliffe, the former governor of virginia, and might have just delivered a road map to fellow republicans for the 2022 midterms and beyond. >> together, together we will change the trajectory of this commonwealth. [ cheers and applause ] and, friends, we are going to start that transformation on day one. >> we're going to have much more on the virginia race and its implications for the 2022 midterms here in a moment. but first, though, berman is at the magic wall to take us through this nail-biter in new jersey. tell us about this. >> 61 votes, 61 votes separating the two candidates in new jersey. that's not much considering over 2 million votes have been counted so far. so, the thing we need to look at right now is where are the remaining votes? this is with 84% total reporting right now. i want to look at the counties, if i can, that have about 80% or less reporting right now. so these counties that have colors have 80% or less reporting right now. you can see what most of them have in common. they're all blue. they're all democratic counties. and some some cases, let's take a look in hudson county, this is where jersey city, new jersey, is. you can see phil murphy has a huge lead in hudson county. 76% of the vote reporting there. so a lot more votes still to be counted in hudson county. so a lot more room potentially for phil murphy to grow. essex county, that's where newark is, a big urban area. again, just 72% reporting. you can see phil murphy with nearly 73% of the vote. let me look at one more democratic area here. this is outside philadelphia, camden, new jersey, you can see fill muphil murphy at 61%. as more votes come in from the democratic counties, he'll be able to flip this race and get on top of jack ciattarelli. you see one red county here. i know everyone watching says hey, there's one red county. it is. that's cumberland county where there's 79% reporting. you can see not as many votes there total. so potentially speaking, more democrat votes to be had. democratic votes to be had. they're still coming in. we don't know if they're early votes, vote by mail or what. that would tell us something when we find that out. we don't know where they're still counting or where they've gone to sleep. we're waiting to find out. stay tuned for that. let's look at virginia right now. this is also very interesting in terms of the national trends, in terms of the overall story. you can see glenn youngkin there. we had projected as the winner of that race by about 2 points. a lot of focus has been on the suburbs surrounding washington, d.c. and richmond, virginia. and, yes, glenn youngkin did well there. he held his own. take a look at loudoun county there. this is a county that joe biden won by more than 20 points. you can see terry mcauliffe's edge was just 11 points. so, yes, glenn youngkin was able to make inroads in the suburbs, but if you want to know where glenn youngkin made the biggest gains, and had the biggest edge, i want to compare this race to the race four years ago that was won by the democrat ralph northam. and i want to look at where terry mcauliffe under performed ralph northam, did significantly worse than the democrat four years ago. you can see the areas where terry mcauliffe did worse, primarily these red rural counties. not the suburbs here. you can see terry mcauliffe basically did right around or within the margin of error, as it were. there's no margin of error in this. right around what ralph northam did four years ago. his real devastating los angeleses c losses came in these counties. smith, there's only 10,000 votes. glenn youngkin won 82% of the vote. terry mcauliffe won 17% of the vote. that's not much. i want to compare that to four years ago. you see ralph northam had 42%. that's terrible. terry mcauliffe managed to do even worse. you can go county to county in these red rural areas to see those votes are just bleeding away, they're just bleeding away from democrats in virginia. and that's got to be something that concerns democrats around the country, especially if terry mcauliffe and democrats aren't able to expand their leads -- sorry, move that around. expand their leads in these suburban areas, brianna. >> all of the margins in the suburbs. and south side virginia, it's very clear youngkin really made a difference there. berman, thank you so much. you are going to, of course, taking us through county by county throughout the show. i do want to bring in cnn's jason carroll who is live foreus in fort lee, new jersey. no rest for the weary there, jason. it is going to be a potentially long morning ahead. >> reporter: oh, yeah, talk about a nail-biter. this is the true definition of it. governor murphy and democrats did not want to find themselves in this position. and, and, brianna, over the weekend governor murphy said if his base didn't turn up in huge numbers, this was going to be a coin toss. that's exactly what we're seeing. if you look at where we are in burg an county, fort lee, this is the suburb out here. president biden back in 2020 carried this area by 16 points. murphy again at this point, still more votes to be counted, ahead by just 4 points. so you see that big shift you're seeing there. murphy saying, the campaign saying they can still pull out a victory. telling his supporters last night to hang in there and wait for every vote to be counted. >> we're all sorry that tonight could not yet be the celebration we wanted it to be. but as i said, when every vote is counted and every vote will be counted, we hope to have a celebration. >> reporter: brianna, i've been on the phone this morning. gosh, it seems like it was last night, but it was actually in morning with the ciattarelli campaign, speaking to them about what they're seeing. they were actually encouraged by what they're seeing in the suburbs, kby what they're seein in burg en county. i asked what is make the difference? first and foremost, they're seeing a lot more support from women. in their estimation from the minority community. when i asked her what was the key difference here, she said three things. property taxes, property taxes, property taxes. people in the state of new jersey pay some of the highest property taxes in the country and it is their feeling that one issue really made a difference here. again, still votes to be counted. both campaigns saying they want every vote to be counted and telling their supporters to hang in there. brianna? >> can it make the difference? we'll see here in the hours ahead. jason carroll, thank you. >> we have our eye on new jersey. we're watching the votes come in minute by minute there. but as we watch that, i want to go to arlington, virginia, to talk about the other major race. cnn's sunland serfaty is there. sunland. >> reporter: john, certainly a big night for republicans here in virginia and a devastating gut punch for democrats. republican glenn youngkin defeating democrat terry mcauliffe to become this commonwealth's next governor and first time notably that a republican has won a state race here in virginia in over a decade. and youngkin did so by building his own brand, a brand that was separate from trump, appealing to moderate republican voters. but doing so without alienating the trump voters and appealing to the base, focusing on state and local issues like education to get him elected. here's the governor elect at his victory rally in virginia. >> on day one, we're going to work. we're going to restore excellence in our schools. we're going to start with 20 charter schools and we are going to make a down payment and close the gap on giving parents an opportunity to select where their kids go to school. friends, we're going to embrace our parents, not ignore them. >> reporter: and democratic candidate terry mcauliffe really staked his candidacy on trying to tie youngkin to the former president donald trump, and simply that did not work here in virginia. so not only will democrats be certainly licking their wounds here this morning, john, but certainly reassessing that strategy going into midterms next year. john? >> sunland serfaty, thank you very much. joining us now cnn political commentator and senior editor, cnn political commentator and press secretary during the clinton administration, joe. america is telling us something this morning. you have at least a 12-point swing in virginia where cnn has projected glenn youngkin is republican is winning. in new jersey they're separated by 61 votes. look, phil murphy may take the lead soon. but still, a huge swing there, as much as a 16-point swing in new jersey from the last time around. so what is america telling us? >> well, i think america is telling us what america frequently tells us, which is that it wants the pendulum to swing back, and it does that whenever you have unified control of the government. in virginia you've had unified democratic control since 2019. of course, we had that in washington, d.c. since the beginning of 2021. and always, the public starts electing republicans at that time. we saw it under obama. we saw it under clinton. and now we're seeing it under president joe biden as well. >> what do you see the defining issues as these two races as? >> well, i do think that a lot of it is just the impatience with the way the schools have been handled, and what a lot of parents see as a lack of voice that they have in the education of their kids. but really it's a whole lot of everything. it's high prices. it's the sour climate of our political debate. and as jason was telling us earlier, it's property taxes in new jersey. so there's a lot of pain points right now in the electorate and it's all being taken out on the party in power, the democrats. >> the president's approval rating is under water in virginia. 45% approval. in virginia, eye state he won by ten points exactly one year ago. >> yeah, doesn't help that the president -- his support has ebbed right now. and the timing of his legislative package didn't get completed. it didn't matter that it didn't get completed this week. terry mcauliffe needed it two months ago so he could talk about those things. but the big difference, especially in virginia, but also in new jersey, is that donald trump is not on the ballot. that's what drove particularly women, particularly women in the suburbs out to the polls. it was this distaste for trump. and what glenn youngkin did is, maybe a model for republicans, is he managed to be trumpian enough, but moderate enough and acceptable enough in the suburbs. the irony is the person -- democrats will be devastated this morning, we'll argue over why we lost. the person who may be most disappointed is donald trump. because in 2024, there's no model for him not being the best candidate for the republican party. >> you know, i wonder if this is going to mean not just obviously in virginia, but in other states. is this going to be rowdy school board meetings coming to a swing district near you? >> yeah, well, listen. politics is general driven by hope or fear. right now it's fear, you know. terry mcauliffe is an optimist, so he was not the best deliverer of this fear-based message. but education was the lightning rod issue in virginia. it's interesting how it was. in southwest virginia, rural virginia, it was a lot of these racially charged rhetoric that was received trump voters the way trump has always given it. in more moderate sections of virginia, what youngkin was able to do was to talk about local school districts. the big mistake terry mcauliffe made was in the debate when he said, i'm not gonna let parents decide what we teach in school. now, most of us know what that meant. but the way youngkin defined it was, parents don't get involved, these crazy liberals are going to decide what kids are taught in school. critical race theory, which is not taught anywhere in virginia, became a big issue. and it was able to work with both groups. >> what about, ramesh, joe's road map for youngkin, trying to create a little bit of distance for donald trump there? is that a lesson for republicans? i guarantee donald trump won't learn that lesson. >> you've got two issues here. there's the road map for republicans that might succeed, but there is also a road map to failure for the democrats. so the democratic campaign just dwelt on donald trump. in fact, youngkin made an ad about how trump obsessed mcauliffe campaign was. and even in states that trump lost by ten points to joe biden, that message didn't work. so you've got to wonder whether it's going to work in a lot of other states where trump isn't as unpopular as he was in virginia. now, the other question, of course, is what republicans can do with this message. can they follow this kind of youngkin formula in the future? and i think that you're exactly right, joe, that trump is not going to want them to succeed in this way and is going to do everybody in his power to keep them from succeeding in this way. >> we have so much more to talk about, so stick around if you will, guys. up next, a night of historic mayoral wins, plus voters reject being the defund the police movement across the u.s. this is cnn's special live coverage. if you're 55 and up, t- mobile has plans built just for you. whether you need a single line or lines for family members, you'll get great value on america's most reliable 5g network. like 2 lines of unlimited for just $27.50 a line. only at t-mobile. to make progress, we must keep taking steps forward. we believe the future of energy is lower carbon. and to get there, the world needs to reduce global emissions. at chevron, we're taking action. tying our executives' pay to lowering the carbon emissions intensity of our operations. it's tempting to see how far we've come. but it's only human... to know how far we have to go. what is it? so you can get to know your new granddaughter. we're so glad you're here. ♪ come on over! oh honey... she just needs some time. how was school? you ought to be very proud. i'm proud of you. here's another picture of your mommy. she smiled so hard, her front tooth popped out. goodnight grandma. did you 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electing its first asian pacific mayor. o'neil is the first black woman to hold the post in durham, north carolina, and ed gainy becoming pittsburgh's first black mayor. eric adams will be new york city's second black mayor. miguel joins us. miguel? >> reporter: adams' win wasn't surprising. remember the former n.y.p.d. captain and political moderate beat out a crowded field in the democratic primary, including several progressive candidates. he's the second african-american to become his honor of the nation's largest city. but the first to go around nationwide. in boston michelle wu, first woman and person of color, she beat out a centrist, the first south asian to become mayor there. he beat fellow democrat who was a long-time party fixture. democrats also now in control of the city council there. durham, north carolina, looking at its first african-american woman, a former judge elaine o'neil. and ed gainy elected the first black mayor of pittsburgh. maybe the most surprising results of the night is in buffalo, new york, where democratic socialist candidate india walton may have lost to write-in candidate and incumbent democratic mayor byron brown who lost the primary to walton in a shocker. he's declared victory, but the majority write-in vote still needs to be counted. and in minneapolis, a proposition to replace the police department with the department of public safety has failed by a wide margin. this was a voter proposition coming out of the murder of george floyd at the hands of police, with calls to defund the police, a call that hasn't sat well with voters who may want to see police reform, but the idea of radically changing public safety just isn't in the cards. particularly when the crime is up in many cities. a lot of firsts, a lot of young, new people of color, and not progressive winning at the local level. brianna? >> miguel, thank you so much for that. joe and ramesh back with us on this. defund the police, the takeaway from this, joe. >> well, the takeaway is democrats are losing on cultural issues. this is a cultural issue. this is not a policing matter per se. it's about republicans' ability to drive these cultural wedges that alienate swing voters, and this is just one of many. and democrats have to get better about being more aggressive on the other side of this and not being for defund the police, but trying to take apart these cultural attacks and make republicans own the worst of them. and that's where i think trump does come in. i think he will be a player in 2022 and obviously 2024. -- they are all incumbents. they all have a long history of being with trump, all through impeachment, all through his administration. youngkin was sort of a blank slate. he was able to fill in his own picture. so i think what democrats have to do is wake up today and say it's not left or right. it's culture, and how do we get better on this. how do we knew tropical storm lane e -- how do we neutralize that. >> they are leading india walton. brown went after walton on the policing issue. and also in new york city where you have eric adams, former police officer, the primary with the big game there. he won the primary seen as more pro law enforcement really than any of the other candidates. >> yeah. so, themes of defunding the police, that is not a wedge issue invented out of republicans. that's the left. that is the online progressive left getting too far ahead of democratic voters, let alone the electorate at large, and getting its head handed to em them agai and again. one of the reasons joe biden won the presidential nomination is that the online left is not representative of the democratic party overall. it's one of the reasons eric adams won his primary in new york city. but a lot of democrats, they're listening to the most vocal people, not necessarily the most representative people and they're making this mistake time and time again. >> it's very interesting to watch. eric adams literally ran on not being a twitter democrat, as did joe biden there. ramesh, joe, great to see you. thank you very much. our election coverage continues. you have republicans with a very instructive win in virginia, and in new jersey they are counting votes. just 61 votes separate the two candidates as we sit here at, what, 5:25 a.m. we're counting the ballots as they come in. we're trying to figure out what this means for the nation's mood and whether democrats have misjudged. what happens if you ever need to miss work for a long period of time? why would i miss work? i don't know. you could sprain your ankle, throw out your back... get hit by a school bus. or a regular bus. get kicked by a horse. fall off a ladder. bathtub mishap. polio. boating accident. stuck by a fork. rabies. wolves. scurvy. talk to us about disability income insurance today. feel comfortable about tomorrow. massmutual. the best things america makes are the things america makes out here. the history she writes in her clear blue 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home and everything in it more protected. i can wrangle all my deliveries. thanks, hoss! and i help walk the dog from wherever. *door unlocks* ♪ ♪ well, i can bust curfew-breakers in an instant. well, you all have xfinity home, with cameras to home security monitored by the pros. *laughs* learn more about home security or get our self-monitored solution starting at just $10 per month. so it is still election night in america. 61 votes separate the two gubernatorial candidates in new jersey. just 61, with more than 2 million votes counted already. still a lot of votes to be counted in new jersey. in virginia, a big win for republicans. glenn youngkin, cnn projects, will be the next governor there. so what do these results tell us? i think there is a clear story developing. joined now by cnn senior data reporter, harry enton, let's start with new jersey, harry. what's left there? >> if you look at what's left in new jersey, john, what is left is heavily democratic territory, right. so, if you look, for instance, where the most votes out at least a percentage of those votes that are in, it's in mercer county. what's in mercer county? trenton and princeton. i don't have to tell you trenton is a college town. there are a lot of well educated voters there, a lot who i believe voted by mail. i think there's a lot of vote by mail left. at this particular point, even though we have a close contest within 100 votes in new jersey, i do believe as the votes eventually get counted that the incumbent phil murphy will, in fact, pull ahead. >> what's the take a away with these incredible swings from what you saw the break down be in the presidential race between biden and trump? as berman points out, even though in new jersey, this is certainly something that can still, you know, turn out for murphy, the swing is bigger than in virginia. >> it is at this point. look at this. 84% of the estimated vote in virginia, look at that. a 16-point swing towards republicans. even if that comes back a little bit, right, and phil murphy ends up pulling ahead, this is still a double digit swing. virginia 99% of the estimated vote, a 12-point swing. again, a double digit swing. so whatever is happening in virginia seems to also be driving what's happening in new jersey. >> democrats ran against donald trump and continue to run against donald trump. what did we learn about that strategy? >> it did not work. i mean, look, in virginia, 54% of voters had an unfavorable view of donald trump. but look at this. 54% also disapprove of the job that joe biden is doing. so, yes, republicans had their anchor with donald trump, but democrats had their anchor with joe biden. and if you look at those voters who disapproved of the job that joe biden was doing, but also had an unfavorable view of donald trump, look at this. glenn youngkin overwhelmingly won this vote 67% to 32% in our exit poll. and you know what, that group of voters, 15 to 20%, john, you can recall back in 2016 there were those voters who didn't like hillary clinton nor did they like donald trump. they went overwhelmingly republican. a very similar dynamic happening in virginia. and glenn youngkin was the beneficiary of it and i believe that is one of the big reasons why it was joe biden driving the vote more so than donald trump. >> this number is a huge number, harry. i just want to sit on this for one minute. this is among people who basically don't like either donald trump -- >> correct. >> -- or joe biden. >> correct. >> and that matters because in the midterms next year, neither biden nor trump will be on the ballot, but you can bet each side is going to try to use them. >> that's exactly right. each side is going to try and use them. and if this is an indication of what is going to happen when the democrats try and use donald trump against republicans and republicans try and use joe biden against the democrats, what seems to be happening is the buck stops here. the incumbent, the incumbent is joe biden. no matter how hard democrats try to make donald trump the incumbent, joe biden is the incumbent and that is what voters seem to be voting on, at least in virginia. >> mcauliffe was -- i mean, he was very clear about it. biden was a drag on the race. we knew that, the candidates knew this. what other issues were animating voters in virginia? >> yeah, i mean, look, if you were to look essentially at the issues that were motivating voters in virginia, look at this. there was all this focus on education. everyone was saying, schools, schools, schools. it was actually the economy and jobs that was the issue. economy, jobs, education, guess who won the vote of those three? glenn youngkin. in fact, on the economy which was the most important issue, look at that. youngkin won by 12 percentage points. it's awfully difficult to lose a race in which you are trusted more on the top three issues according to voters. >> one quirkiness people in virginia think the >> coeconomy is good. if you think the economy is good with a democratic incumbent, to think the republican is better is interesting. i want to talk 2021 more -- sorry, i want to talk about 2022. what does virginia tell us as we look forward? >> you know, john, this was the graphic i showed you last week. party of the virginia governor, wins, gains house seats since 2007. 8 of 11 times. if you win the virginia governor's race, it's a pretty good bet you're going to gain house seats in the next midterm. we know democrats have such a small majority in the house. if you were betting based upon history the dynamic that held in virginia last night that helped glenn youngkin will hold to the next midterm, of course, we're still a year away so we'll have to wait and see on that. >> what about progressives, what's the takeaway there, harry? >> look, i think the takeaway is if you look, you know, buffalo mayor, right now we believe the progressive is slosing there. there are write-in votes to be counted. byron brown is the one that got most of the write-ins. minneapolis, police reform a projected loss. phil murphy ran a progressive campaign. new york city mayor, remember, this was back in julian assange. the progressives lost that primary and then, of course, virginia a projected loss to the democrats. so i think there's going to be a lot of reflecting upon what happened last night, what's happened in the last few months. i think that there are a lot of voters who said, you know what, we want to pump the brakes on the democrats and progressives. let's take another look. we want more people moving towards the center of the aisle. >> harry, you're about to go to sleep. anything else before you go night-night? >> yes, i am about to go night-night. i have been awake 21 hours. look, the fact of the matter is the real only question left is new jersey. we pointed out the beginning of the segment. a far closer call for phil murphy than anyone thought it was going to be. it's pretty clear across the board in these races and something i didn't even mention, on long island, you see a bunch of democrats losing. this is not just one place where democrats are losing. we are seeing it up and down the map. it's not just about one candidate. it's about an overarching issue. that overarching issue, john, is the unpopularity of the president of the united states. >> there is a clear story being told. harry, sleep well. don't let the bed bugs bite. >> sweet dreams. >> good night. >> dreams of data. do you think harry dreams -- >> what else would he dream about? of course. >> snow and diet a & w cream soda are the things i would dream about. if i can be honest, that's my drink of choice. >> what does that mean? we will dissect that for some meaning, harry. thanks so much, harry. really appreciate you walking us through this. our election coverage will continue. we are expecting new batches of votes from new jersey by has a 61 vote margin right now. that the going to change, but this isn't a dead 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get democratic holdout senator joe manchin on board with the emerging deal, what he hopes is a deal on his domestic spending plan. we have new reporting on manchin's chief concerns with the biden agenda. cnn's melanie zanona joins us live with that in person. what's manchin saying? >> reporter: manchin is saying he has a number of concerns. he had a defiant press conference, he was upset they delayed the infrastructure vote, he had long time fiscal concerns about the impacts of this bill. in an interview with our cl colleague manu raju, he went into explicit detail where he is with the climate provisions. the push to expand medicare. these are a lot of issues still to resolve. the good news is we have a really good sense of where he is. for democratic leaders, that's been important. that's been huge, having a view into where he stands. manchin also said, look, even though he has all these concerns, he is open to the idea this could all be wrapped up by thanksgiving. so he does want toe play ball. >> in the build back better plan, if we can talk about an interesting development where you have actually the house speaker negotiating with senator kyrsten sinema, this is because in the bill hopefully, a lot of democrats want medicare to be able to directly negotiate some drug prices, and this has been a sticking point. but it means a lot to many democrats. they want to get this back in. this is pretty unusual. >> yeah, this is really rare. you don't usually see the speaker of the house negotiating with a member of the senate. in fact, initially there's a lot of frustration on the house side that sinema and manchin were both out of their control. but speaker nancy pelosi rolled up her sleeves and got to work because this is an issue that is very important for her moderates and those vulnerable swing districts. a lot of them ran on lowering prescription drug prices and another promise that pelosi made was that she wasn't going to put any bill on the house floor that couldn't get the votes in the senate because a lot of moderates didn't want to walk the plank and take tough previsions that were going to get stripped out or change. it was important to negotiate directly with the source here. they came up with this compromise that speaker pelosi was instrumental in. >> what are we talking about in terms of timing? first it was september, then halloween, thanksgiving. is this going to be valentine's day? >> i've given up guessing when it is. the sense is before the end of the year. they're trying to wrap it up before thanksgiving. realistically if it's going to ping-pong back and forth, that's going to take some time. when you look at the legislative calendar there are only a few weeks they are in session. they have a recess next week, a thanksgiving recess. not to mention a government funding deadline, a debt ceiling deadline coming up. there is not that much time on the calendar. >> it's not over till it's over, right? so with that just hanging out there, it's just i think credibly anxiety inducing for a lot of democrats. >> it is. biden said he is confident he can get manchin to yes. he feels he has invested a lot of time with biden. he has a good sense where he's at. we'll have to wait and see. >> before valentine's day. melanie zanona, thank you so much. new this morning, a remarkable discovery. a young girl who vanished from a camp site is still alive after 19 days. for you.- mobile has plans buit whether you need a single line or lines for family members, you'll get great value on america's most reliable 5g network. like 2 lines of unlimited for just $27.50 a line. only at t-mobile. to make progress, we must keep taking steps forward. we believe the future of energy is lower carbon. and to get there, the world needs to reduce global emissions. at chevron, we're taking action. tying our executives' pay to lowering the carbon emissions intensity of our operations. it's tempting to see how far we've come. but it's only human... 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