Transcripts For CNBC Squawk 20240702 : comparemela.com

CNBC Squawk July 2, 2024

Break a fiveweek win streak one name that is moving higher, though, is nvidia, up again in the premarket after adding more than 200 billion in valuation following that big earnings beat elon musk reversing his stance on chinese ev tariffs, now saying he opposes the u. S. Moves on those autos lets begin with the markets after the selloff yesterday, jim. Lot of things you could point to pmis some concerns about commercial real estate. Well, im glad you point out the second one, because whats happened is that weve got this feeling that the reason why the commercial real estate is worrisome is because theyre not cutting. Its kind of a chicken and egg thing. Yesterday was jarring. Here we go again durables, a little too strong. If i were jensen huang, i would say, darn it, i would have been up a hundred notthat he eve looks. Hes a pretty confident fellow but that stock would have been really huge and carried a lot of other stocks, but because the bonds Interest Rates went up so much, everything reversed, and the only thing that was still up in semis was nvidia. Look, yesterday was a bad day. It was a really bad day, because we got oversold very quickly, by the way, because we had no leadership there was no follower to nvidia. I mean, today, we have note out on nxp, and thats going to have more pin action than what happened with nvidia but yesterday, carl, were getting this undercurrents about this starwood sreet, and i want to hear from Barry Sternlicht. When we heard from blackstone on theirs, it was pretty calming. We dont really talk about it much after they did a good job Jonathan Gray did a good job we kind of didnt want to make we never made a mole hill into a mountain, and i dont want to make a mole hill into mount ste sternlicht. Its not fair. I would like to hear from him about what he wants to do, rather than just read the press reports. Jims referring to this limited redemption buying back 1 of the value instead of 5 . Of course, sternlichts been a consistent critic of rates and the impact theyre at least having on his industry he did talk about how there will be a bank that will fail every week, and i think there are a lot of people who might be not me, because i like barry who might just say, give me a break. Maybe it fails because youre defaulting on properties, doing these spacs. I say, lets hear from barry i know he doesnt want to sell into a low, but how do we know its a low hes been telling us one of the things that barry has done is hes i dont like to be scared but he has scared me i would never if you came to me, carl, and said you had a real good deal on a commercial real estate property, i would say, did you ever hear of Barry Sternlicht hes telling me not to be in it. Hes the one that is front and center for a problem here. On top of that today, jim, goldman gives up the ghost on a july cut they move to september yep they do say, by september, youll have five more pce prints they think the majority of the committee will be in favor i thought yesterday was an outlier with services. We still know service the service economys strong i come back, again and again, im going to say it. Its employment. And we dont have mass bankruptcies i mean, we do we go to red lobster, and if we think the reason it went down is unlimited shrimp scampi, im going to take that out of the equation of what the fed says, oh, thats a good one. I never want rite aid to go under, but when you go there, they have some razors, and its like, yeah theyre not shipping youre talking about very specific execution issues. Thats the thats the problem. The drugstores, obviously, hideous, but thats the problem. Look at vf corp. I think Bracken Darrell is going to fix it, but if nobody goes under and theres no mergers to speak of and theres no closings, then we just dont have enough people very interesting when you talk to nvidia, they go over the four cliffs conundrum they always talk about, look, were creating lots of Different Things i dont want to say people, because that sounds bad. But theyre creating a lot of devices that will make it so we dont need as many people, but we have a big my friend, carmen, who runs ey but now is near the end of his run, is really fond of talking about how we just dont have enough people being born we just dont. Its the topic of a big fund strat report today, looking at the longterm labor shortage all around the world thank you for these numbers we need 2. 1 people born from a family in order to make it so you dont lose population. Italy has 1. 3. Were all being threatened by this its the demographic challenge is really major. Tom lees point would be that that is what the a. I. Trade is going to be about. Hes right. Replacing that lost labor hes right. I think thats what when you talk about when were all learning that theres training and inference, you want to train youve got to start training on the h100. You cant wait for the blackwell. This is the upgraded nvidia. But you want to train using video. A lot of Different Things. But the main thing that jensen feels is that we are really going to go full selfdrive. That was good for elon i mean, theres a lot of firstname people in business right now. Elon jensen but i will say that jensens real big issue was full selfdriving on that Conference Call people dont seem to realize that was his emphasis. Previously, that had been the digital twin it had been robots it was all full and this is all musk we covered it a lot yesterday, and a lot of our questions to sellside yesterday was about your point that, what a surprise the auto blessing was, and they all agreed really, i did not see that coming, and my talks with the Company Behind the scenes after, i said, are you kidding me were talking about digital twin and the omniverse . Where are the robots that can shake, not stir, the cocktail . They said, no, stay focused on the prize. The prize is full selfdrive i know that jensens always been interested in that, but lets think about all the people all the productivity we get if you didnt have to go behind the wheel and all the safety and the fewer accidents. Obviously, people think that the authorities are really unlikely to go along with this right now. Right so, overall, the vibe youre getting i mean, alltime highs were just a couple of days ago. This might be growth scare number two on the the reflation scare, i guess id like to make more of it i got up really early to find something negative so i could say, carl, you know, the real problem was the commercial mortgagebacked securities boeing didnt help. The boeing cash flow, because you know, boeing wants to go buy spirit do they have to issue equity do they not . Im not saying that. You should never be sanguine after a big run like this, but were not faced this weekend, the threeday weekend, and there have been times when you and i have been together in june where weve suddenly, like, wow, how did ge drop 20 . That kind of thing i dont see that happening i do think that we got the usual suspects we have taiwan versus china. We have to be concerned about, i would say, about once again for boeing and cash flow, because weve seen boeing be in trouble. Some commercial real estate. But for the most part, we had if workday is our biggest problem. Workday. I mean, workday picked a bad day to report. Theres like nobody else reporting other than ross stores good number. Deckers. Great number and then workday workday is getting punished, down tenplus on a, i think, one percentage point trim on sub revenue guide. They did that one they used the term, we got to get used to all the terms. They were talking about elevated sales scrutiny, which is as bad as elongated elevated and elongated. I have to create an english to shortfall dictionary if we go into the four oh, and if we put in elongated sales scrutiny, it doesnt come back and say thats elevated, thats elevated same as elongated. Yeah. But this call, can i just say, was not that bad. One of the missing sub ttexts w hr, in general, was not the greatest place to seek a job Human Capital management people are trying to not beef up those divisions. Intuit is another story where people are pointing to turbo tax units down one, even though they did raise the fullyear guide, jim. I thought intuit was good im just going to put it out there. I thought it was a good quarter. It wasnt a great quarter. Its a high multiple and weve never had anything other than beat and raise under this we did not get beat and raise, so i get that, but it has more to do with how perfect this companys been than anything that is really worrisome right and of course, you talked to walt of schwab yesterday his comments really rhyme with yellen and the ft today, talking about how inflation has become a number one concern. We should listen to this. Lets take a listen to what walt told jim. Inflation has now become the number one concern among investors across, again, 35 million clients that we serve. And so, when they think about inflation, it has moved their position from the first quarte of being a little bit on the bullish side to where now, theyre a little bit on the bearish side were going to get umich in about an hour. I didnt see that coming. I was asking him, because business was very good it wasnt as strong as people thought. He did guide people down a bit 35 million, thats, you know, youre talking about one tenth of the country is with schwab. What i thought was interesting is he had an opportunity to say, i think its coming down its not a problem if i were president biden, and i heard that interview, i would say, you tell me that onetenth of the country with the stock market where everybodys making a lot of money is worried about inflation, and then we have janet yellen over in london talking about inflation. Shes this is it makes sense why were higher for longer i did not expect that from walt. Walts a really good guy, and for him to say that theyre worried about inflation, then people at home are saying, it costs too much to go to the store, and im stuck in my house. Theyre not stuck in their house, jim atlantas airport yesterday just blew away the record theyre still going gasoline is lower. But tsa, 111,000 people yesterday crossed through Atlanta Hartsfield and theyre probably going to break the record again today okay. So, everybody does have jobs, and jobs are plentiful other than Human Capital management, according to workday. But i do think that for i didnt want walt to say that when youre doing these interviews, youre revving and its the indy 500, and you say, i better ask about inflation because everything is so good, and then he just hits me with the roundhouse my plan was really gooduntil i got punched in the face. Yeah. It brings to mind, jim, a note from goldman, the desk yesterday, talking about they dont think institutional traders are prepared for the potential for a blowoff top, and they say the retail cohort is the reason why, because theyre on the come. But would walts comments back that up . No. Absolutely not and walt, i asked about individual stocks, and hes just going toward mutual funds and going toward index funds, and not remember, we have been using these things of trying to figure out whether the consumer is enthusiastic, whether the consumer is ebullient. I felt from him that the consumer was, eh, business as usual. Its okay. But inflations not okay well, when we come back, were going to talk about maybe some moves in the opposite direction as some of the fast food chains move further into value and the target price cuts as well. Well get to the latest developments surrounding tesla and elon musk, his message regarding tariffs. Some reports of cutting production in shanghai as well take a look at the premarket more squawk on the street continues in just a moment power e trades easytouse tools, like dynamic charting and riskreward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. 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So, in general, im in favor of no tariffs im also, actually, in favor of no tax incentives for evs, but provided that there are also the tax incentives for oil and gas must also be eliminated. So, im in favor of no tariffs and no incentives for electric vehicles or for oil and gas. So, is it is it that after you build a giant on the back of subsidies, youre for no more subsidies . I guess so. Once youve won, no more subsidies for the other guys the most important line that came out of that, he was pressed. Musk was pressed about flagging sales. He was pressed about declining stock price, and he did say, in a most informative moment, we can stop the question right now because i dont think Business Insider is a real publication. President nixon used to do that. Are you running for president , dan rather to turn on the press like that, thats a timehonored way when youre sick and tired of hearing about your flagging sales. Reuters does have this piece he doesnt like reuters about model y data shows its down by a third in april year on year. I know. Things are, you know, look, the long knives are out there. Youve got the chinese putting you know, coming up with cars that everybody likes that cost very little. Look, im going all in musk on the vote i think he wins the vote and i also think that if hes not right with jensen, im not writing him off. The stocks been resilient. I think theres something going on in the last few weeks, which is saying, okay, listen, we are going to go autonomous, and you better get on board. I dont know where i mean, to me, i was still used to when i was in san francisco, it was autonomous, and then the next thing i know, its gone. And mary barra shrewdly had to do what she had to do, but i keep thinking about, if theres this much backing, somethings going to happen. Speaking of barra, she did speak to the detroit economic club, and she says, on musk, i have respect for him its a different kind of playbook, but at gm, we really have to think through and try to talk about the issues that are consistent with our company values. Well, you know, i dont know why she should comment on musk i think that this is a good chance to say nothing. I do think that the tariff issue is very strange, carl. Remember, mary has a lot of cars sold, huge gm business in china. Stay low, stay low have you been you have been watching these military drills biggest series of military drills for the chinese in about a year yeah. And thats back, and i think that that asml comment, we got to go back to what they said at taiwan semi, dont worry, we can shut these things down, and then go back to Gina Raimondo from commerce, and a lot of people feel, oh, shes picking winners. What she is picking, and her team is very good, brad konig ran the Investment Banking division at goldman. Theyre not picking winners. Theyre picking a strategic semiconductor reserve. If we dont build them here, and china takes action, then we are done we saw what happened with covid. I had felt, and i know its a very outlier move, that maybe we do have to put soldiers there. No one wants to put soldiers anywhere, but we have to make a statement to the chinese, listen, this is not were not going to let this stand. As a country, we cant let taiwan taiwans the most important ally we have thats probably true i mean, thats something thats a little bit fraught, that theyre our most important ally, because we cant make most of the things we make without them. It would be a huge new chapter, jim, in geopolitical risk while were at it today, we do want to take a note and remember our good friend, mark haines, who passed away 13 years ago today. Mark was the founding anchor of squawk box, as you know, coanchor of this show, squawk on the street. We always remember mark for his knowledge and wit, and jim, i sometimes think about what he would do in the face of so much misinformation today oh, he would be so angry. He would be so angry and so dismissive what he would do, i think, call out one of them so strong that the others might say, you know what maybe we should stop did you hear what just happened to soandso news outlet thats what mark was like. I would come on and have my rap, and he would say, no free passes and then, one time, i was under fire from him, and he goes, no free passes, and you trembled. You trembled because mark haines was the authority, and we forget that and we miss him. Theres a look at his portrait, which still hangs just on our way down to this set every single day what a guy. Our thoughts are with marks wife, cindy, his son, matthew, daughter, meredith, on this day. Opening bell coming up in a few minutes. office chatter is it me. Or is work not working . At least, not the way it could work. Your people are buried in busy work. And you might be thinking. Can ai make it all work . Can ai help your people work. Without all the workarounds . Feel better. Make Customer Service work the way customers expect . That one. Make your old tech work with your new tech . Thank you. And todd here is wondering, can ai do all that.

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