For nvidia. Chip stocks waiting to fuel record highs for tech and options point to a big swing when it reports tomorrow. The Jpmorgan Chase ceo an nouning his retirement may come within five years. Lets begin with the markets, jim. A bit of the setup here, tech alltime high on the s p. There are semiconductors yesterday that arent even doing well or at least hinted that things are turning. Texas instruments gave a sense that the stock was just on fire. Micron on that basically capitulation call. Ive missed it. Im going positive. It worked. Qualcomm on the idea that some people are looking for their chips even though they should be in abundance. Yesterday was a day where bro broadcom, were talking about a Top Ten Company in america. I asked jensen whether he would split the stock, the ceo of nvidia. He said, well, ill consider it. Do you know what would happen if they split that stock . A 10 move. It would be insane. It would be based on nothing. Well get a 10 for 1 lrcx along with a big buyback today. Lamb has always been much more pro shareholder than the others. I have to tell you i think lam is the intellectual property of so many when you say you want to build secretary raimundo said i wanted to build a fab, this is what america really makes. Kla, lam, this is what we really do. Even in taiwan semi, you go in and think its all taiwan. Its american. Theres a fascinating story about asml and taiwan semi being able to, what, turn off the chip machines if china invades taiwan. In the event of nuclear war, were fine. That was the strangest story. Well, i didnt know we were about to go to work. If we do, thank heaven asms big systems will still work. We can pull the plug. No, no. Guys, lets not issue things like that. Lam research is up 60 points on the split. Warning the other people in semiconductorville, if you do a split, thats a better way to get your stork up than beat. Maybe ive got to talk to da kesh about splitting the stock. Well get to palo alto in a minute. Breaking news from the fed and well turn to steve leishman. Fed offering guardedly dovish remarks saying further increases in the policy rate are probably unnecessary. He says he needs several more months of good inflation data before being comfortable to cut rates. The important part, he talks about progress on inflation seems to be reducing, thats on other Economic Data out. Restrictive Monetary Policy he believes is helping to cool demand the data suggests progress is back on track. He does acknowledge progress was moderate. He notes that the isms were below 50. He goes on to say the consumers appear to be tempering their purchases noting flat retail sales in april along with delinquencies being on the rise. He notes the easing of labor demands seems to have resumed. Rage growth is higher than he believes is consistent with a 2 target. The feds Monetary Policy overall puts downward pressure on inflation. I will have a chance to ask some specific questions about these comments today with fed governor waller at 1 00 p. M. Eastern. A pretty dovish take on the recent data from a guy who used to be well known as a hawk, carl. Steve, whether this moves the ball forward in your view more than, say, mester or daley yesterday . Absolutely. If he ends up being right, this is the beginning of inflation t downward path, the data weve seen in april is the beginning of a moderation, then, yes, you can imagine this creating the preconditions or the beginning of creating preconditions for a rate cut. Ive talked about this for a long time as a wrestler. You want to count one, two, three at least of good inflation except the wrestler keeps getting up and you have to start the count again. Waller seems to be telling us essentially that april counts as one. Steve, thanks for that good metaphor. Well check in later. Steve leishman liesman. All we care about is the direction. Ive been focused on red lobster, not just because of the 20 scampi, guys coming in getting 16, 17 cervix of it. That could always hurt you. There are so few companies that have gone under. 36,000 people work at red lobster, and obviously i feel bad for them and dont want to joke about people losing their jobs. Theyre finding jobs, the managers are getting jobs. We arent getting the kind of bankruptcies that indicate Good Companies arent doing a good job. You almost think they set out to destroy it. At one point the general counsel is running it, a bunch of different owners and onerous leasebacks. It still didnt get crushed, is still ticking. You need to see real bankruptcies from Real Companies in order to get us to over 4 unemployment. And then i would feel like you start getting the three, four, five cuts. But we dont have them. Ed yardeni yesterday, jim, looking at consumer in particular. Household personal discretionary income, per household, you take out the covid spike. Its never been higher. Im tired of hearing about credit card delinquencies. When i look at macys, you cant be a quarter miracle worker. That was a really good quarter. When you look at what Marvin Ellison from lowes is doing i have him on tonight. I would say were in trouble, the contractors arent doing well. Well, theyre not doing well on the home depot side of the street. Maybe its raining there. On this side of the street with lowes, theyre doing well. I have to tell you, i keep getting shot down from the thesis of the consumer not spending. Yesterday i had norwegian cruise on. Try getting on a cruise. By the way, you can get a 500 room in the middle and 1,000 outside. Theyre all sold out. Where is this consumer weakness . The fact its minus four comp at lowes, you think thats good management. Yes. Absolutely. Still better whan than what i expected. Marvin has a terrific positive comp in pro which is incredible. The thing that you can say, listen, do it yourself is not that good, but were in lawn and garden season. I have to plant this weekend or else im done. This is a really good quarter for lowes. Then you have macys raising the guide a touch. Barrons piece, turnaround plan starting to pay off. I like what tony is doing. Tony spring has isolated 50 macys and said were going to put some money in those and see if we cant turn them. Those are working. The 50 had comps of 3. 4 . The ready to wear a lot of money in that. Womens footwear and beauty were all strong. Hes going to close the ones that are underperforming. They continue to do that. Gwinnett came in and recognized weve got to fix the Balance Sheet first. That doesnt seem like anything visible. Then he started adjusting the underperforming stores. Some didnt work and some did. I like tony spring coming in hot, and i think if he can just close the ones that are underperforming in macys and continue to get out of leases and continue with this plus three comp, youre going to want to own that stock at 19. I remember when dave tepper and i used to talk one of the billionaires billionaire here, billionaire there. We use stod think their Online Business was worth a great deal. So is the panthers even though theyre not. Theyre a suboptimal team. I think that company is worth a lot more than its selling for. We started yesterdays show talking morgues mike wilson removing the downside. Now the stories are about marco delon vic, the last prominent bear. Making sure his hokas are underneath the soil there. I dont know. I think that yesterday he must have felt good the dow was down, maybe he was looking at jpmorgan being down nine. Being down nine at your own company he does say valuation is high, geopolitical risk, highest in a decade. Hes not saying its time to get in. He has to look at history. This is what the great marty swied told us, dont fight the fed, dont fight the tape. When the fed switches, you have to switch with it. When the facts change, you have to change, too. Look, i love a guy who has got some rigor, but at the same time you kept people im doing a piece right now this has been maybe the greatest rally ive ever seen. You mean since october . People looking, how did you do. I bought biotech. How did you do . Brilliant. I bought semis. Fantastic job. Theres a lot of high fives. Communication of course is boosted by alphabet. Utilities. Its a 90something percentile rally. I say to him, have you looked at American Power lately . Ive crushed it with American Power. Pacific gas and electric. Its crushed you. Honestly, these companies that are winning, carl, this is a dart, 98 . Let me do it again. Maybe i hit constellation energy. Constellation energy or constellation brands, i dont care, as long as constellation. Its a great stat out of bloomberg today, the s p is almost 10 higher right now than the average forecaster at the beginning of the year said it would be at the end of the year. John arthur has been a delight, not afraid to take on the establishment. Thats a great stat. That is a great stat. It does show how hard it is to call this market, right, and call rates. He said geopolitical is the highest in a decade. Well, is that jamie is always saying geopolitical is bad. I wake up and asmf says, if taiwans invaded, were cool. If you didnt think there was a lot of geopolitical activity when President Trump was president , i dont know. I understand from some of the people in the cabinet that he basically laid down the law to president xi at the beginning about where the bombs would go if he did anything. I feel like if he thinks this is a very calm time i think versus the period, the President Trump time. To your point, on that, oil, brent lowest since mid march. The Washington Post has some reporting suggesting maybe an offensive into rafah would be more limited, something the u. S. Could look past. It does seem that the cabinet is split there. I always hesitate always say that im not a knesset guy. I dont know exactly whats going onthere. I do know that what i see is that this thing did not its calmed down. At any minute it can flare up and make you look bad. Im judging it, if we didnt know better, that oil is in free fall even since the missiles flew into iran. I was at a party with hedge fund pan jers who are typically wrong and they are again, oil is going to par. Heaven help them if they would ever say 100. Its important that they speak in a language nobody else speaks. Its risk on, partner, going to par. Im like, will you give me the english to hedge fund dictionary. I know you try to make it so people dont understand. The oil trade has not worked. The deflationary trades have worked. I love the fellow at jpmorgan. Whats his name . Kolanovic . Yeah. Ill remember that. Well talk more about jpmorgan in particular, what jamie dimon said. Well get to palo alto, tesla. Theres boeing news. Zoom, of course, look forward to toll and urban tonight. Tonight is a big night. Toll is going to be blowout. Squawk on the street is back in a moment. Engineered to minimize noise. And built for adventure. Which can also be your own quiet cabin in the woods. The fully electric q8 etron. An electric vehicle that recharges you. How we get there matters. You know whats brilliant . Boring. Think about it. Boring is the unsung catalyst for bold. What straps bold to a rocket and hurtles it into space . Boring does. Boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible, and startups start up. Because its smart, dependable, and steady. All words you want from your bank. For nearly 160 years, pnc bank has been brilliantly boring so you can be happily fulfilled. Which is pretty unboring if you think about it. Norman, bad news. I never graduated from med school. What . But the good news is. Xfinity mobile just got even better now, you can automatically connect to wifi speeds up to a gig on the go. Plus, buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. I gotta get this deal. I know. Faster wifi and savings . I dont want to miss that. Thats amazing doc. Mobile savings are calling. Visit xfinitymobile. Com to learn more. Doc . Jamie dimon held court yesterday. The 68yearold ceo indicated he is moving closer to retirement. Here is what else he had to say about being asked about the backs succession plans. I have the energy that ive always had. Thats important. I think when i cant put the jersey on and give it the full thing, i should leave basically. The board, its up to them if ill stay as chairman for a while. Well see. Were on the way. Were moving people around. All the analysts in the room ask that question, is there good potential succession. You can evaluate the people you see as leaders yourself. I think most of you would say, yeah, there are actually really Great Potential ceos here and stuff like that. The timetable, its not five years anymore. He says succession, jim, quote, is well on its way. People were concerned about the buyback, that hes not going to buy stock here. But as he was speaking the stock turned into a free fall. Thats why the dow was down. This is a man no one wants to retire which is actually quite a really hats off to the guy. He did cause a tremendous panic in the stock by acknowledging something that i think anyone other than Warren Buffett has said. He doesnt own the company. This is not jpmorgan or his son. I think people have to understand that hes loved and no one is ready for him to retire, but some day everybody retires. Meantime on the macro, cautiously pessimistic, in his words well, hes got that rap. Cant change now. If he suddenly changed now and said happy days are here again like judy garland. Oh said u. S. Is in pretty good shape. The soft landing appears to be playing itself out. Remember, were the best in education. We have the best military. Jamie is a consistent fellow. Neighbors to the north and south, yes. We have Natural Resources that are abundant. I do think that the data from his bank shows you were in pretty good shape. He runs scared which is what a good banker does. He runs scared. I did think he came to when i went to philadelphia, he said he thought the rates were going to go to 6 with the soft landing strategy. Hes no longer saying that which is kind of cool. Meantime, down the street at morgan stanley, quote, our proprietary m andn tracker supports or call for a 30 yearonyear. They went long large cap banks a long time ago. That would be sensational. I know there were people last week that were talking about what would happen if a bank started collapsing. A bank could collapse every week. I think thats a bad call. The two banks we had trouble at, new york community, thats because the fed gave them the right to buy a bank they shouldnt. The other was a bank, republic first in philadelphia with a management that had been checkered. These were two that the fdic could have stopped ahead of time and they chose not to. Obviously the fdic also under fire yes. Looks like groom berg is going to lead. Sheila baird made a comment yesterday about why he should. It did seem like senator warren was more reluctant to have him go. There were people look. It just sounded bad. I dont want to go into the nature of what was happening there, but what the heck. You havent had a lot of cold water thrown on a long bank thesis right now. The banks are very strong. I said watch wells. We have a lot of people that think citi has made a major come back. Baing is doing well despite the bond portfolio. Pnc is doing decently. The only bank people are saying good things about is comerica. Its tough to catch wells because sharp is so great. Well get cramers mad dash, countdown to the opening bell. Speaking of bonds, after those waller comments, tenyear almost back to 440. Back in a moment. [busy hospital background sounds] this Healthcare Network uses crowdstrike to defend against Cyber Attacks and protect patient information. But what if they didnt . [ominous background sounds] this is what it feels like when cyber criminals breach your network. Dont risk the health of your business. Crowdstrike. We stop breaches. Sure, im a paid actor, and this is not a real company, but there is no way to fake how upwork can help your business. Search talent all over the world with over 10,000 skills you may not have in house. More than 30 of the fortune 500 use upwork because this is how we work now. voya there are some things that work better together. Like your Workplace Benefits and retirement savings. Voya helps you choose the right amounts without over or under investing. So you can feel confident in your financial choices voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. Take a look at nasdaq 100 laggards. Palo alto will be at the top of the list. Well check in with jim on that quarter and the reaction to it along with qualcomm. Opening bell in about five inutz. Catch us any time anywhere, follow the squawk on the street opening bell podcast. Mi. Catch us any time anywhere, follow the squawk on the street opening bell podcast. In. Catch us any time anywhere, follow the squawk on the street opening bell podcast. Ni. Catch us any time anywhere, follow the squawk on the street opening bell podcast. Ui. Catch us any time anywhere, follow the squawk on the street opening bell podcast. Ti. Ti. Catch us any time anywhere, tamra, izzy, and emma. They respond to emails with phone calls. And they dont circle back, theyre already there. They wear business sneakers and pad their keyboards with something that makes their clicketyclacking. Clicketyclackier. But no one loves logistics as much as they do. You need tamra, izzy, and emma. They need a retirement plan. Work with principal so we can help you with a retirement and benefits plan thats right for your team. Let our expertise round out yours. Time for creams mad dash. We often talk about surveys for apple. Most of them are wrong. Theres one place, a Single Source of wisdom i find about apple and thats morgan stanley. They just did their App Store Revenue growth survey, accelerates in may, month to date, 11. 7 which is tracking ahead of their forecasts. Then you Start Talking about how china has had a very big acceleration month to late largely driven by china. Morgan stanley has data prove even time and again to be right. You get the app store, if you get the Service Revenue streams, bigger than Everything Else apple has combined. You boost this up and find out the bull case of china being back this is why i didnt like that case. They found some suburb of whatever that had like three phones left this stuff just drives me cr