Im melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq we start off with a sharp reversal in shares of jpmorgan today. The big bank hitting an alltime early in the session, but taking a tumble midday. The drop coming off Ceo Jamie Dimon said this at the companys investor day i think were in a very good position to continue to invest in our future, and were not going to buy back stock now. Share buybacks have been a big driver for stocks this year. Look at the gains in alphabet and apple since the Companies Announced massive repurchase plans. But with stocks at alltime highs, the nasdaq posting a record close today the dow setting a new intraday before pulling back. Have valuations gotten ahead of themselves if jamie dimon is not buying at these levels, the question is, should you why are you laughing already you read my mind. Im thinking to myself, if hes not buying, why should you mouthing it but the reversal today is very interesting. Yeah. Noa lot of volume, this reversal more than two times you are spoton with that. We talk about price to tangible book, price to book, and he obviously watches the show from time to time, because jpmorgan almost got 2. 35 times tangible book, almost two times book value, which is historically expensive. Its not an indictment of the bank its a great bank, its just very expensive when you hear it from him, you have to take notice. Well, i im not sure i want to hear from jpmorgan theyre buying their stock back now either, though it doesnt mean i go out and sell, because theyre not buying and i think theres an importance difference. I think at times jpmorgan, jami dimon, he stepped in to buy his company when it has been, i think, absurdly cheap or at times when theres been places in the market to to inject confidence into the shares i think about where companies, especially banks, are vilified for buying back shares for him to get out there right now and say, im buying back stocks, i dont think his that concerned about public backlash, but i think he thinks about the big picture and every word he says i dont know that this is a place he needs to say, im out there buying stock so, again, were talking about anywhere from a 60 to a 90 move in some of the biggest Money Center Banks in the world, not just jpmorgan. Citis moved 75 european banks, some of the biggest banks in the world have had some of the biggest moves. I dont think theres anything wrong with that. So, were saying that or he is saying, you think, that it is fully valued, and i think so, if you had a fresh dollar to put to work in the markets today, would you be buying jpmorgan or say, you know what, maybe im not going to do that because jamie dimon is not probably not. Listen, his strategist has a 4,200 price target on the s p 500. While it may have outperformed, but its trading at a premium. Again, it was making in highs after that 6. 5 gap after its earnings lower on april 12th down 10 from then alltime highs in early april killed in the gap on what, i dont know maybe some folksthought they were going to kind to adjust this Net Interest Margin higher. They saved that for the investor day. I dont think its a buy right here jamies saying theyre not buying it. The last thing they say, the stock took that leg lower, because of the recession comments hes dictated so many Different Things in the financial space over the last, call it almost two decades or so, but this is a bank that has 4 trillion in assets when you think about succession, it probably goes in the hands of i could see two ceobank. So, thats something that i think were going to spend a lot of time talking about. 4 trillion in assets and flush with capital this is a situation that you appreciate where this bank is coming from. Jamie dimon has a long history of playing things on the per perhaps xo tantly so given the fact that we still get a read on inflation, we dont know where Interest Rates are going, wait someone at the helm of largest and the reason why it trades worth its premium valuation because it is perceived to be the best bank. They continue to invest in technology so, for me to get behind someone that is saying, listen, we want longterm investment that is going to bolster the stock over the long run, sure if you are trading it daytoday, perhaps youre not jumping in today, but this gives me even more confidence, you know, why i want this to be a core position in my portfolio koonltd to invest going forward. And i think key to this discussion is the context where this p this is being raised they said its not going to be an even path its going to be tailwinds that turn into headwinds, when the fed starts cutting rates, when e whenever what happens, it will be a headwinds when you see the headwinheadwin coming down the road, do you buy it at 1. 8 times book no, but thats me i mean, it got more expensive on the way up, obviously, it was basically it was a multiple expansion thing, which is fine it works but historically, thats the deep end of the pool in terms of valuation. Not only for that stock, but for banks in general with that said, i remember a friday in february of 2016, the market was getting and about 2 00 in the afternoon, jpmorgan announced that jamie dimon was buying jpmorgan stock, i think the price was 58. Never saw that price again he put his money where his mouth is thats eight years ago this is not a reversal, i get it, but theres some subtleties here that makes you think, he saw something then, he sees something now. If he was right then, its probably smart to believe hes going to be right again. I guess we are right to think about every word he says, jamie dimon is often one rung below the fed when we think about every word he says but i dont own jpmorgan so they can buy back their stock this is the other part of the investor day they talked about a business thats got such diversify case, so many places where they are spreading that capital across, they announced 1. 15 in a div, which is an excellent div. As a shareholder, i want to get paid i want to get a dividend so, i just look at it in the context of, they told us that credit card, or ncos were stabilizing, they told us that nims were better what could i have wanted to hear after a 70 move in the stock . I mean, its, to me, its what youre supposed to hear. If they say theyre out there buying back shares right now, it tells me its it tells me theres not a lot of opportunity for their business and they are spending on technology, they raised their capex spend for the year part of that is going to be on, of course, a. I. , as everybody else is spending on a. I. So, they are investing in the future but in terms of what this means for the markets, i mean, if were thinking about a jpmorgan that trade lsz at 1. 8, fair. It could be fully valued were talking about markets that are at alltime highs, eff effectively, across the board. A Utilities Sector that is trading at 1. 7, in terms of price to book. If you are thinking jpmorgan versus a utility, put it in a context of other valuations surrounding jpmorgan, and does it start looks expensive its interesting you mentioned the generative a. I this is an interest that you could see taking tons of costs out. Usi if one of the first use cases is customer service, and that ends up something that could allow them to replace thousands and thousands of workers with generative a. I. Bots, then, youre going to see a rerating of some companies. If you see them make better loans, the individuals or just across their institution this could go on and on, where maybe all the banks get rerated. It doesnt happen from here, as a bank like this is at alltime highs. Its going to take years to figure that out. A lot of people have made the argument that these are like utilities, they should trade at big discounts, and this is one story that could change. And could change very quickly for the banks. Not right now. And staying out of the target of the fdic, s. E. C. , any of the other regulatory bodies, i think, listen, i think that tech spin is being allocated for a reason we can talk about some of the chips or the other tech names, they were kind of laughed at for the allocation to capex, and its paid off. At least in the shortterm the last thing ill say is, kind of to tims point, i dont want to see a ceo of the premiere bank chasing shortterm performance. Its really about riskreward. If you are going to get 3 , 4 kicker, versus being able to weather any potential storm thats coming down the pipe, i just think id prefer that cautious approach. I dont know what the youre playing your phone . What was that whats the ringtone . I think it was a concert. Dont be sorry. It happens it usually happens to me. At least its rated g lets move on. No, you cant pretend it doesnt happen i mean i was going to use my calculator, okay guy turning this into a natural tv moment. Its beautiful as you were saying. Quickly we have to get julie in here i dont know the context, but i i would rather him say nothing at all than to go out of his way i dont know what the context was, but just something to think about is it the wrong time to go bullish on bank stocks the s p 500 price target is more than 10 below todays close julian, welcome. Is it harder and harder to stick by that forecast as markets go higher and higher . Well, by definition, it is. Theres no question about it, but lets think about it, right . The first ten minutes of this conversation, weve been focused on valuation it is something that i would say in the course of years of me being with you all, weve talked about very, very little, but the point being, you know, whether its the consideration of earnings estimates that in our view are far too high, even though we had a good earnings quarters, but that was up 5. 5 , the market thinks the full year is 10. 5 at 23 1 2 times earnings, you know, whether its the premiere investment bank, bank stock, in the world, or its the market in general, we just think this is the time to really think about risk w risk reward here and goldilocks, despite the fact that were either at 2 or 1 or 0 cuts continues to be pried very aggressively guy hates goldilocks. Im giving julian a pass. Dont talk about it on turkey day. Well talk about gold in a minute please. But in terms of where we are right now, and the riskreward, one of the big risk events weve been talking about for weeks now is nvidias earnings which are coming up this week. Volatility is still extremely low right now. In general, for the markets, and so, im wondering how you reconcile that, and if you think that nvidias actually going to be sort of the thing that either sets this rally higher or sets us back. So, it is one of the most unusual environments, i think, any of us have seen, because the amount of dispersion among stock returns is really record, which is why the index doesnt move. Think about today, right we saw, you know, jamie dimons bank sell off the way it did at the same time, we had twoplus billion shares in a number of meme stocks that frankly people dont know what the companies do and never heard of them two weeks ago, buying and selling them so, it is a very unusual environment. And to us, in total, it says that risk in general is perhaps over priced here its not the end of the bull market, in your view, and i theys the message we got from jamie dimon today, its just a time to sort of let things settle in for awhile whats the deal with the vix . We talk about the headwinds all the time, geopolitical stuff, blah, blah closed below 12 on friday. Its incredible it goes to the dispersion. It also goes to the fact that the game has morphed into oneday and zeroday options the oneday vix today traded in the fives. The lowest ever for the two years plus that it has been calculated and from our point of view, when you think about it in the context of nvidia, it is true, that that stock has been the market for thelast year. And its going to move were not sure which way, but the Options Market says it is going to move. And we expect the s p to move with it. All right, julian, stock market hasnt worried too much about where yields are, right . And again,ite w ieven when we sd the year, there was six cuts priced and now we have one or two this year, lets talk about inflation. The fed keeps saying that, you know, 2 , theyre going to stay pat with higher for longer, that sort of thing. At some point, do you have to start figuring out what the cumulative gains have been since we got above that 2 and kind of took off into 2022 because, you know, do they have to actually keep yields much longer for higher for longer than a lot of folks think that they might have to do, because of those cumulative years . I think thats some of the dialogue as much as we may not want to acknowledge it, theres no question about the fact the feedback loop from equity prices into confidence, into financial candidates, is definitely there. And has been for a number of years in central banking, and, you know, people want to compare this to 1995, the dawn of the internet revolution. Were fully behind the idea that generative a. I. Is going to be a gamechanger over the longterm, but the difference between now and 1995, where you basically had a straight shot up for three years uninterrupted, is the fed started cutting rates into the kind of economy we have now when inflation was already 2. 1 , versus right now, and stocks were trading 14 times, not 23 times. Julian, always good to see you. Thank you for coming by. Julian emanuel 4750, do you see that in the cards, tim its possible i tell you what, i think there are a lot of prices where we are overextended i give julian and his team credit for as, you know, julian, at times, has opinion very bullish when it hasnt looked so great. And a strategist named rich ross has been bullish the whole time and hes been right. You have different dynamics, and you mentioned the inflationary impact of where we are, when copper behaves like a meme stock, you have a strange dynamic. Another record day for copper, that is inflationary it is dr. Copper for a reason. Its woven throughout the economy. I dont think you get off that train, by the way, but an issu we have an earnings alert on palo alto. Cnbcs Julia Boorstin has all the details. Julia . The companys fiscal Third Quarter results beat on the top and bottom line. Revenues just a hair above expectations, and guidance for the fiscal Fourth Quarter was right in line with expectations, despite that fiscal Third Quarter beat the ceo saying on the call, which is still going on right now, that with a. I. , they do expect cyberattacks to come at a faster pace. He also said that their customers are responding well to their approach of cybersecurity consolidation, saying, quote, demand is robust and my expectation is that we will continue to see it be that way over the next many quarters. But even with this, shares down. Theyre up 58 over the past 12 months and nikesh arora will join jim cramer coming up on mad money. Melissa . Julia, thank you. Guy, pnw its alltime hishgs gh, nott it matters 380ish, or so. Problem, i think, is valuation the quarter was fine the guidance wasnt what people were looking for me, the question is, where do you get back into this thing the recent low was 268 or so given sort of the Market Dynamics around now, i think, 268 might be in the cards. They had some recent missings, so, there was a question about, i dont know, do you believe management, and i think theres issues still given the guidance especially given where i think they sit in the middle of the hardware, but more importantly, on the Software Side of the business and this is three straight billing quarters where theyve had weakness so, i think this is kind of a problem. I am of the view, and if nvidia holds and we just look at where the dominos fall or raise from nvidia, thats the opposite of falling, but software tends to follow semis and semis closed today at alltime highs palo alto, adobe, the biggest and most successful dinosaurs of the world, not dinosaurs because i think theyre yesterdays news, but because theyre big. And they havent really responded. This is disappointing. I think this is setting up for an opportunity a bit of a cautionary tale of what happens when you have a fully priced market and there isnt a guide for it so, if we dont get that continued pull forward of earnings and able to value that into todays terms, i think that might lead us lower. As long as they are hitting on all fronts, i do think nvidia will beat, but that will be the theme that cracks the market yeah, its worth noting, the generative a. I. Trade has been very narrow over the last year and a half its been basically the Chip Companies that, you know, predominantly nvidia, but its been the large Platform Companies that have been able to benefit for that if you think about the companies, like, theres no doubt about it, like, cyber is going to be a thing to combat a lot of stuff thats moving at much accelerated sort of paces so, again, the billings are not there. I think youre probably seeing some people stealing from peter to pay paul as it relates to their enterprise budgets right now. This is one that makes some sense. Coming up, microsofts latest reveal ahead of its build developer conference tomorrow. And the new class of pcs putting a. I. Right at your fingertips. And a retail reduction from target the company slashing prices on thousands of items as inflation tightens consumers wallets. What it could say about the competition, and could a price war be on the horizon . Dont go anywhere. Fast money is back in two. This is fast money with melissa lee, right here on cnbc. jen so we partner with verizon. Their solution for us . A private 5g network. ella we now get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. marquis with a custom private 5g network. Our customers get what they want, when they want it. jen now were even smarter and ready for whats next. vo achieve enterprise intelligence. Its your vision, its your verizon. Tamra, izzy, and emma. They respond to emails with phone calls. And they dont circle back, theyre already there. They wear business sneakers and pad their keyboards with something that makes their clicketyclacking. Clicketyclackier. But no one loves logistics as much as they do. You need tamra, izzy, and emma. They need a retirement plan. Work with principal so we can help you with a retirement and benefits plan thats right for your team. Let our expertise round out yours. And theyre all coming . Anthose who are stillts rigwith us, yes. Eam. Grandpa whats this . Your wings. Light em up gentlemen, its a beautiful. Day to fly. Welcome back microsoft unveiling what it calls its smartest pcs ever. The lineup, a surface pro laptop and tablet with qualcomm chips that allow the devices to run a. I. Features without draining battery life the reveal coming ahead of the build conference that kicks off tomorrow steve kovach is there, com