2000 joe, we know its about nvidia earnings this week, and a lot of things are continuing to rally s p above 5300 nvidia approaching 950 record high, copper. Its oppenheimer with their technicals suggest to position for an everything rally. I think there seems to be a degree of comfort on the part of the investors. I think its an important week, and obviously thats because of nvidia lets reflect back 52 weeks ago, and what did nvidia give us . A rally that ignited the technology rally over the last year i think universally, everybody expect the bar is incredibly high for nvidia this week. People are looking at nvidia and saying you have to beat and raise and in doing so you will light up the ai halo, which has been kind of dim since march the expectations are very high scott, when the exspeck taeugss are high and everybody already knows that, dont be surprised if they surprise you they have done it they have done it, right, just when you thought they couldnt, they did right i actually would not be surprised to see nvidia deliver what the street expect, and the stock to just keep going higher. Again, we are extending these record highs what about the idea of an everything rally do we need to be more positioned for it, the implication being that many more of the cyclical areas of the market are the ones that are going to continue to rally and have leadership . Theres our wall of the everything rally this is the six month gains, and we showed you this the other day, and its profound how many asset rallies and things are rallying around or surpassing their record highs i think this is a twofold trade, right if you think about what does better in a potentially stickier inflation environment, we will see the commodities compliment if you look at what is happening on the equity side, although in q1, earnings were dominated in the s p 500 by the mag 5 it supports the shifting leadership in terms of what is performing well in the market, and you anticipate there could be downward positioning for the mag 5, while other sectors and specific industries within the sectors are expecting an Earnings Growth. If you are looking at higher than expected inflation, you are seeing that. Where you want to be in a pseudo inflationary environment, we are seeing nominal top line growth, you want to look for areas where the Earnings Growth have an easier comp in the second haft of year and that tends to be outside of the mag 5 sarat, the idea of the everything rally, and Deutsche Bank talks about raising their outlook for the yearend target from 5500 to 51, and its not a big surprise obviously we have blown through that on the s p, and we are at 53 and holding above that. What they like the best, and this gets us into a deep stock conversation, and overweight financials, overweight consumer cyclicals and overweight the materials. A lot of the desk is spread all over these areas if you look at materials, they are up 8 year to date freeport, Martin Marietta. You are more than double the weight on the s p in this area, so seemingly you would agree with that part of the call absolutely. That was a contrarian play at the beginning of the year as well, because to shannons point these are cash flow companies. What do you look for when you have an inflationary period, companies with cash flow, because companies can replicate that with a bond or companies with cash flow, and there are commodities with copper, and you have momentum to joe t, and he should be in there, and investors will start looking in there. Same thing with financials, right . If you look at where we are and some of the catalysts coming, and they have not done much in the last three to five years but if you look at the tailwinds happening in the capital markets, and whether its Wealth Management that could get a tailwind because asset prices have come up, and those are areas you can broaden the rally, and earnings can grow. Comps are going to be really hard for the big tech companies, and we have talked about it in the past but when the reality comes, you are seeing that money move away and say, hey, how is meta going to have that huge quarter in the back end of the year thats where you are seeing the broadening of the base of the free ports and the Martin Marietta and such, do you like one better than the others . I think freeport has great assets and cash flow i like the others, but out of those i like freeport. We will move to we will go deeper into consumer cyclical names. I want to be as actionable as possible for our viewers on a stock basis today, and we will get into financials too. Its up 8 year to date, and the implication is its going to have a much bigger move between now and the end of the year. You are an Eagle Materials sector beneficiary. This is a cement business. What you have to look at right now from a market standpoint and then take it down, scott, to the materials companies, the industrial companies, the energy companies, and anytime you see gold, copper, and thats why they call it dr. Copper, right testing the highs they are testing right now, it suggests we may be at a pivot point in the market the put that back up, please there you go its the six month chart, and year to date, almost five full months it has had a nice little move year to date, and i am gathering a lot of the stocks especially lately look similar to that. Yes, and i think its because when you see that type of rally in the commodity complex, what you see is rotations into the value sectors, rotations into the cyclical sectors, and even rotations into the international sectors. Whether they are going to be able to be maintained or not, you know, we will see. We have seen some falls dawns before this. What we have seen so far, its still intact it suggests theres upside markets, and it would be healthy if you started to see this broadening out, obviously. Seasonality is in a good place, and it typically fades in july and comes back during election time the things that worry us more than anything are not the inflation scare anymore, but its the growth scare, because the markets would have a tough time adjusting that, adjusting to that. I think you heard a lot of conversations around what is the kind of the neutral inflation target, right . Should it be higher than it is today, because what if the fed tries to get us to 2 . What are the implications of that what are the implications for valuation . Bob, if you invested on the what ifs and the worries over the last lets just call it six months, you have been a loser in this market, right, from a return standpoint because you have been paralyzed by the what ifs i am not talking about you, but i am talking about the collective you totally if you are sitting on cash, obviously, yeah. Because you could come up with a million different scenarios, and rates could rise and that will cap multiples and this and that, and then here we are extending them i get it. Its a cliche, and everybody says that. What you look at what that meant from a performance standpoint, you dont have to chase the pricey stocks because if you are buying quality quality could mean an expensive stock delivering from a growth standpoint i feel like the easy money has been made in big cap tech, right, for the most part even if they have a continued run, the easy money has been made Everybody Knows why you are there, and you can pretty much bank on ai, right . You still need things to go right for the highly cyclical areas of the market to do well, right . If you have a new core, and steel dynamics, and how do you view those i would add tech resources, which we do not own. I think it has to do with the Surprising Growth we are witnessing in the asia region right now, and china is having a better recovery. You are certainly seeing that in terms of the pricing of paper assets, and surprisingly outperforming so far year to date, and even in europe you are seeing a little outperformance i look at materials and think about commodities and maybe its on a better Overall Economic environment, and those are my favorite names the consumer cyclical side of the conversation becomes more complicated, shannon if you want to say that sector is up year to date, and theres concerns about the full range of how the consumer is doing and how it will continue to do, so the number the kinds of stocks within that group is pretty vast and diverse. You know, were talking everything from autos, auto parts, entertainment, travel, retail, restaurants, at a time when we are really questioning where is the consumer truly today and how are these stocks going to do over the second half of the year . The question there is, too, if you look at the expectations for the second half of the year and why people are optimistic to s sarats point, from a sk discretionary perspective, like you saw target today, they are seeing input costs come down and they are not as stretched or pressured from what they are paying from a supplier perspective, but its an admission that particularly the low income consumer is under pressure, and thats what we are consistently hearing from all of the discretionary companies that we have consumers seeking value. Scott, thats not a bad thing for all companies, right joe, you talked about tjx for for instance, and consumerseeking value is great for their bottom line but you have to be more selective. I understand why people are excited a excited discretionary i dont know if they are excited about it deutsch Deutsche Bank is excited about it yeah, i am concerned about the consumer i think this is a big week as it relates to the consumer, clearly with target, macys and lowes all reporting and ross, auto zone, and you have a number of names that would fall within the consumer cyclical space reporting right i think thats an underlying theme beyond nvidia, because i think we have heard a lot about a more cost Conscious Consumer i do see i do see pockets of weakness as it relates to the consumer i see the consumer beginning to contract, and thats why i keep saying its not going to be a soft or hard landing but a firm landing and maybe thats the best landing for the consumer overall. But i think tjx and ross stores have to prove themselves this week you need Margin Expansion. Thats the place where cost Conscious Consumers are going to be visiting, but how they are managing the margin is going to be important and i think they have to prove themselves this weekend. You have delta, and gm, and lowes, uber, united you are overweight, the consumer obviously with names like that, and you can throw in disney, too. If you look at delta, disney, gm, and single multiples, well, not disney, but you are getting value there and seeing that grow there, and you are looking for Margin Expansion and growth. You have to be very careful because we have seen you made this point about quality and paying up for it, and i think those that did that in retail got hurt, because when you are trading like a mcdonalds and starbucks in the 20s and 30s and you dont maintain what you have done for a decade, you will get hurt i think you have to be careful in the sector because the consumer is weakening and you want to be in the right companies. Rob, its auto zone, mcdonalds, oreilly, ferrari. If you are so concerned, as i know you are, about the consumer rolling over you have a lot of exposure in that area . Yeah, its a case of have and have nots, and we had haves and they ended up being have nots, like mcdonalds, and we have ferrari and deckers, which are up a ton the bottom line is you cannot maintain a goldilocks scenario without the consumer its 70 of the u. S. Economy so i think you have to you have to make sure you are selective. Theres idiosyncratic things that i think impacted the lowes and home depots of the world lowes is only up 3 on the year home depot is down. Like i said, haves and have kn nots from a tax standpoint, it would make no sense for us to sell, but deckers is a new position, up 35 year to date. Ferrari is a new position up year to date, and just i think we are hyper vigilant where we are adding its interesting, too, the dichotomy between the highend consumer and lowend consumer. You have highend restaurants doing well, and lowend restaurants not doing that well. You have people retired and they are earning returns off their savings, and thats why they are talking about if you can cut rates it will slow down the economy a bit. Yeah, like the baby boomer boom yeah, its the baby boomer boom exactly right. If we could, lululemon is interesting. Lululemon last year was up 59 , and this year its the worst per performing consumer discretion stock, and it could be down 34 year to date 35 , actually thewhy underperformance if tt consumer is it doesnt make sense. A tactical buy at wells fargo, constellation you have good exposure with that with anheuserbusch. Yeah, post covid you have people going out and they are experiencing and they want to drink beer and spirits, and as input prices are coming down now you are on the other side of that, and it will be a question of execution and where is the constellation going to make. Scott, can i come back to joe on lulu. Listen to these statistics this is a company that has 57 Gross Margins and 28 operating margins and minimal debt and a 22 return on investing capital, and 50 higher than the industry average, and 25 premium to the sector, and a big discount to what it used to trade at you know, a lot of this has been about guidance around the consumer, and when it traded down its not necessarily about what actually happened and what the numbers tell you real quick, and then i want to move on go go ahead go the Revenue Growth has been the problem. I have owned the stock for years. The Revenue Growth is in the 30 range, and its become an idiosyncratic Mature Company or theres something underlying why the Revenue Growth is beginning to slow related to the consumer. Thank you what about nike in the last 100 years. Well, nike is not having a great year, is it . Not now well, it has been a minute, has been a little while. Lack of innovation and things that have been talked about that specific name that hurt the performance. What has not suffered any bad performance, financials, financials are the third best performing sector and its a big day for jpmorgan because they lifted their income guidance ahead of that, leslie picker is following that story, which, in and of itself is interesting because you dont know what jamie dimon is going to say. No, and hes in the middle of a spontaneous q a as we speak right now. Hes fielding a bunch of questions, several about buybacks to which he said it would be, quote, a mistake to do that at two times book which is where the stock is currently trading, and others talked about broadband bging regulations and he said that was damaging america. He shared his stance on the micropicture i predict that like night and day and its a matter of time. I am cautiously pessimistic. I think pipelines come and go and Interest Rates go up and come down, and there are longterm and shortterm trends, and i am cautiously pest msimisc we dont really know the full affect of qt i find it mysterious that somehow it had a beneficial affect but will not have a negative affect when it goes away, and i think personally inflation may be a little stickier than people think and rates may surprise people. So scott, hes continuing to speak. He just gave interesting comments on ai where he said its going to change every job, and he said he reiterates, every job, there will be no jobs, and some may be like a copilot, and some may eliminate jobs and some could create jobs, and it will be ubiquitous. Hes focused on ai and the implications for the firm. Leslie, appreciate that very much leslie picker out there on investor day sarat, mr. Jamie dimon always gives us something to talk about. What do you think about that, cautiously pessimistic the stock, theres nothing to be pessimistic about. Jamie manages things well, and he will say things are okay and not great, but when you look at the earnings for jpmorgan, they perform and perform better than what people expect. You have to say what he says with a grain of salt, and hes saying its not all champagne and roses, and if you can do how they do, i want to own the stock. What if you believe every word he says and you think maybe a soft landing is a forgone conclusion, and inflation could be much higher for much longer than people think, you know, and transition away from qe and qt will have a more dramatic impact than up to this point. Goldman is up 38 these are percentage gains bank of america, 31. Wells, 41. Citigroup, 41. Is he telling us to lighten up our positions in these kinds of stocks well, if you were a trader, i think you could. No question about it i think you have an environment where certain things are improving as it relates to the banks, and certain things are decelerating as it relates to the consumer we talked about that you have somebody that runs the best bank in the world net interest margins for jpmorgan they have to pay less for deposits than anybody else right . If the market were to get weaker, they will capture a market share like they have every single time it happens you are dealing with a different circumstance with this bank than maybe others joe i would agree with that thats the reason why i own jpmorgan, and i think its going to go well above 225 we have significant exposure to the Financial Sector now we are at 23 . Thats well beyond what the s p 500 is now, its not isolated to money center banks, and its what we were talking about, its in Asset Managers and Insurance Companies which have remarkable Pricing Power right now, and its in the exchange itself, and we are starting to see slomo men slowmomentum ivan boesky died he was serving three years in prison the former trader was thought to the former trader was thought to be a giving traders even more ways n inspiration of skills the movie wall street. He was 87. Webcasts, articles, courses, and more all crafted just for traders. And with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. Trade brilliantly with schwab. We want to talk about Cyber Security stocks because they have been ripping, and palo alto reports after the bell palo alto, joe, up 15 , and crowdstrik