Increase fourfold. This is going to take longer than we thought because of the interruptions in the Energy Security because of where the moneys going to go. And stay tuned as i speak to the ceos of bp and shell and other Energy Groups coming up on programming. Chinese factory expands for the first time in six months as the country eases into the golden week holiday. European index gains boosting hopes the fed could be done with hikes. Wall street highs a positive trading month. And kicking the can down the road. The u. S. Government narrowly avoids a shutdown. President biden points fingers at hardline republicans. My colleagues brought us to the brink of a Government Shutdown. Enough is enough is enough. This is not that complicated. The brinksmanship has to end. Warm welcome to street si signs. Quickly getting data in from the pmi. The eurozone september final pmi in at flash estimate. Eurozone activity is mired in a deep downturn according to the survey data. In terms of the detail, the output pmi was under 50 for the quarter. That is according to hamburg commercial bank. France and germany are leading the way to september pmi to the bottom and spain is pulling away less skcathed. Lets get a check of the equities. Julianna, there is a lot of green on the heat map. The stoxx 600 is up. 30 . This after a september to forget and quarter to forget for the global stock markets. We are starting off with more positive footing. The main news over the weekend is the u. S. Has managed to avoid a shutdown. That is the good news. A spending bill was passed last minute over the weekend. The more mediumterm news is the spending bill is 45 days long. We may have to visit the shutdown as soon as november. U. S. Futures are trading green as we head into the u. S. Session. Of course, the hand over into the european session is positive as well. One thing to note is the asian markets are closed for the week. China and india and hong kong out for golden week. We will not get a lot of signals for those markets as we think about trading for the week. We did have signs over the weekend that some of the chinese activity data indicators have started to bottom out. Thats part of the issue now. Lets look at the individual indexes. The swiss index under water today. We are getting the final pmi manufacturing numbers come through mostly in line had for. Signaling the manufacturing in europe is in slump territory although we are moving in the right direction for spain and italy. Germany and france are still in the do the duldrums. Dax is up. 40 . Ftse 100 is at absolute level up. 20 . In terms of sector leadership, this is where we have leaders and losers. Real estate is leading the charge up 1. 3 . Basic resources is up. Rbc put out a note cautious on the sector. On the flip side, healthcare is down. 40 . That explains the weakness in the swiss index. Media is down five points as well. We are keeping a close eye on the energy space this week as the secretarygeneral of opec warns of the risks of un underinvestment in Energy Security. Lucky for us, steve and dan join us from the conference with more. You have been busy this morning. Talk about what is happening on the ground and the conversations taking place. We will tell youyou move of t is to come for viewers. I look at this meeting and it is a joy to be back with you, by the way. I have been coming here since 2009. Amazing to watch the evolution of industry. It used to be an Oil Conference and then oil and Gas Companies and now Energy Companies as well. The question is how do they negotiate the transition . I look at this with the twin coverage with the cop28 conference in november. How will this industry do and move on the transition as well . I find it amazing to get a gauge on what is happening with the oil and gas and Energy Companies and the contribution to net zero. We know there is still a lot of work to be done on the transition stage. That is why the leaders have been gathering. The headlines we have been following suggests that there is a new energy and mood and that is squarely focused on cop28. It is going to take a lot of time and money and it will take a lot of will to get it done within the organizations. It is. Our viewers are smart for a reason because they dont take anything on face value you. We must not take things on face value you. I have a question if this is lip service and strong lip service. We hear it from a lot of conner corners. This is a nation which has vast amount of wealth because of mol molecules and hydro carbon. Is it going to be lip service or a meaningful change . You have amazing stats on the amount of money that this industry is spending on renewables compared to enp and hydro carbon. Oil and tech is less than 5 on exploration and production according to the iaea. There is real pressure to spend more on renewables and hydrogen and carbon capture. At the same time, the industry is worried about energy supply. We are focused on what they say as well as what they do, steve. Coming into the conference, we have seen the doctor who is the cop28 ceo and pulling together industry executives for a closeddoor meeting talking about the solutions and the agenda that they can put on the table to deliver real change. Of course, they have to be held to account on the agenda. We are waiting to see he if Real Progress is made. It does seem as if what theyre doing is putting us on the right course. Lets watch and wait. The investments have to be there. Dan and i spoke to the former bp ceo and beyond net zero chairman which is lord john brown. I began by asking him whether the Energy Transition is at risk. Its the pace of transition that is at risk. This is going to take longer than we thought. Five years ago, actually two years ago because of the interruptions in Energy Security and where the money will go because Energy Security requires diversification of sources. A lot of people are putting money in a variety of diversified sources and it takes time to mount the amount of capital we need to get the transition done. Its huge. At least three times if not four times what we are spending today. But, there was a time when some of the biggest money on the planet was fool heartedly backing esg and the board and motions that would go through and backing up swifter Energy Transitions. Not just europe, but global companies. I see that money not having the same commitment a couple of years ago. I think the money always in the free market chases returns. If returns are higher somewhere, they will go elsewhere. That is why in the u. S. , the Inflation Reduction Act was put in place so people can invest in returns that make sense. I expect he they will be more and more structures which in the end put a price for releasing carbon into the atmosphere. That is what has to happen here that makes the market change direction so people can invest in reducing carbon dioxide. There are plenty of investments to be made and plenty high returns, but they are in the hands of all of the players, not just the oil majors. Lord john browne. We have an incredible panel coming up. Stellar panel. If you care about iocs and the oil industry, watch the coverage. We will be speaking on the panel to the likes of the bp ceo and shell ceo and you name it. Occi. A hughes panel. It would not be the same energy th unless there is the back drop of opec. You will get insight into that. Ill speak with the opec secretarygeneral later on today. We will stress the quarter and dig into the rift between the iaea and opec with the oil demands. Opec sags ying dont give up on fossil fuels. One says 2028 and the other 2035. Do we need to get annoyed about it . That is it for now. Dan will hang around. Im going to shoot off. Julianna, back to you. Thank you, guys. Dan, i look forward to you coming back. Steve, i cant wait for your panel. If you want to get involved in the conversation of what is happening on the ground in abu dhabi or in the European Equity markets, follow us on x, formerly known as twitter. Tweet us. Coming up on the show, we will look ahead to the crucial set of state elections in germany. Annet t annette will join us to breakdown the details. When we started our business we were paying an arm and a leg for postage. I remember setting up shipstation. One or two clicks and everything was up and running. I was printing out labels and saving money. Shipstation saves us so much time. It makes it really easy and seamless. Pick an order, print everything you need, slap the label onto the box, and its ready to go. Our costs for shipping were cut in half. Just like that. Shipstation. 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Chinese factory activity expanded for the first time in six months in september. Pmi rose to 50. 2 which was ahead of forecast. A separate survey showed growth, but at a slower pace at 50. 6 which was down from 51 in august. The yen is trading near a 12month low against the dollar after japan announced another bond buying operation. The minutes from the latest meeting shows a possible exi before fridays inflation print showed cpi falling more than expected to 4. 3 , the ecb Council Member said the elements that might torpedo the process is powerful. And tax has risen to the top of the party as the jeremy hunt says the government is not in a position to talk about them at all and will use his speech later today to set out hikes to the minimum wage. These comments come out after he sees a general election is in the cards once inflation falls below 3 . The senior cabinet member took a more aggressive line with our sister channel sky news. Thank you. There are some people who are saying that the chancellor thinks it may not be possible. It ought to be possible given what you have seen in the economy . I think the critical thing is we absolutely need t sure we are bringing inflation down. Naturally, everyone in the conservative party believes in lowering tax and particularly seeing hard work rewarded. I cant speculate on what type of tax cut, if any, were able to deliver until we are certain that inflation is coming down. Sky reports the prime meeting as speculation mounts or hs2. They considering scrapping the manchester leg to save money. Arabile is on the ground for us as the Conference Party kicks off. Arabile, i watched the Prime Ministers interview on the bbc over weekend. He did not give a lot away with the future tax policy. He simply harped on and on about bringing down inflation and that being the priority for the government. Reporter the same tone consistently, julianna, to bring down inflation to the 5 figure which is the best tax cut he can offer because the initial tax cut which was wanted by the likes of michael gove and consumers alike will not be at play, it seems. Even jeremy hunt speaking here in manchester at the conservative party conference. Highlighting they will be unable to do that. One of the things they will look at, however, is the benefit sanctions and how they will be more harsher and which will increase the living wage. You see them increase the living wage for uk households to above 11 pounds per household. That will be very interesting to see if that adds anything of substance. The question mark is with taxes as high as they are, what can they do . The institute for fiscal studies has come out with the study this week saying taxes are set to increase by 3,500 pounds per household since 2019 making it the highest increase of any government that has been in play in the united kingdom. Clearly, a lot more needs to be done. These were the words from jeremy hunt when he spoke to us regarding the tax hikes or whether there was any hikes happening this year or the next. This via sky news. I cant tell you what the state of the economy will be going forward. What i can say is it is difficult to see having that kind of tax cut this year for two reasons. You say that ahead of the next election. Im answering as accurately as i can. I dont have a crystal ball. I cant tell you what is happening with the economy. Right now, public finances dont allow that. Our Interest Payments are predicted to be much higher than at the Spring Budget and it will be inflationary. Is this something im willing to put us on a path . I understand lower taxes and im prepared to take the difficult decisions to make that happen. Reporter tax cuts are occupying the top of the agenda sheet. Lets not forget that you do have the reversal of the net zero emissions on the back of the petrol and diesel vehicles which is delayed another five years. It sets back the green energy discussion. I was speaking to hydrogen uk, the company here in manchester, and they are saying the in invein investment is bound to come off after the year the uk has had. They are about to miss the charts for the investment case. Another topic on the agenda, of course, is hs2. High Speed Rail Network that is meant to link london with the northern part of the uk. A large part of that which could be scrapped and we could see that Cabinet Meeting happening later today with regards to that. More announcements at play. Well unpack those across the coverage here in manchester. Guys. Arabile, thank you for the overview. To go back to what julianna was saying. I watched the same interview with the Prime Minister. One thing he kept saying is having inflation is akin to a tax cut. That is not the same thing. Especially 2 3 of inflation is dropping on the back of base effects of energy and food and where things were one year ago. That is a bit of a political spin. It does tell you that arabile was stating how much pressure is on the conservative government to introduce something akin to tax cuts. That is so much pressure and what the conservative party stood for. He is falling under criticism for not pushing through the tax cuts. They seem to think they can turn it around. Switching to another country in europe. Spains center right leader feijoo has failed in his bid to become the Prime Minister after losing a second parliamentary vote 177172. Spains king is expected to give incumbent center left leader Pedro Sanchez the government with the call to a path for r referendum for catalonia. Twotime slovakian Prime Minister came out top in the elections according to preliminary results. The prokremlin leader has another chance to form a government, but needs to form a coalition. He said ukraine is not his priority. Translator slovakia have more Serious Problems than ukraine. We believe ukraine is a great tragedy for everybody. If we form a government, it is irrelevant now. We will do all we can within the eu to reach peace negotiations. And german chancellor olof scholz is facing a big test as centrist parties look to stem growing support for the farright alternative party. Elections are set to take place in two of the countrys most populous states. Annette joins us now. Annette, you have been flagging on the program the last couple months the german economic back drop which is not supportive. The question on everyones mind is how do they turn it around and how much backlash or blame is the chancellor expecting . Reporter i have to say germans dont vote on the economy. That is different in saxonbuerg. Voters are disgruntled with the government. Be it a discussion on the economy or the High Energy Bills or immigration which is on the rise back here in germany. It is a imaginatmajor topic. We are seeing voters going to the city inscity which is polli and that makes them more successful in the polls than any of the parties which are forming the Ruling Coalition now in berlin. To give you an idea of how people are actually voting with their feet toward the right wing or populous party. In the east of germany, the afd is the most successful party, almost in every federal state. That is moving toward the west. That is actually new. For hess, we see the afd coming in at 16 . That could be better than the greens or better than the social democrats. Their topics are the economy and lack of Skilled Labor and immigration