Now street high. John correctly predicted the rally last year. Joining us at post nine. Great to have you with us. Great to be here, melissa. What was that moment when you said, i have to go to street high of 4900 it occurred a few weeks ago we held back, waited for Economic Data to cross the transom, whether it was last months jobs or the prior months jobs whether it was the continuing claims or whether it was initial claims, what have you. And then the gdp number, i think, really added to confirmation we saw last week that there is strength in this economy, that the fed has been remarkably sensitive even though on a nominal basis the hiking has been aggressive when you consider the inflation, dangers to free money of the system where bond issuers dont pay for the privilege of borrowing money. This is a normalization process. A big shock generationally to many people who were not in the markets in 2008 and may have been this high school are now in their 30s. But the reality is, for those of us that have been here since 83, this has been you know, this is a normalization is what we see really here and we think the fed will calm things down. We think powell has done a remarkable job and the irony is, the overstimulation by both the fed and fiscal policy of two administrations is likely helping the markets, the economy, the consumer, labor to weather the hike cycle remarkably well. Its reflected. You cut it and youre happy with the higher multiple willing to accept it when youre at 4900 now. How do you accept it when you look at a multiple, especially at this type of point where youre in transition in what is a Recovery Market from a bear market, youve had declines in earnings coming out of it inevitably if analysts are looking ahead for the next 12 months, that a price target doesnt look bad and the multiple looks bad because we expect earnings will work off that high level. 24 is going to be back than 2020 yes 2030 was optimistic for this year so we shaved it a bit. Is there any concern about we talk about the feds last mile this little bit more in terms of rates. We know were much closer to the end than we were just three months ago still it could be rocky. There could be hikes along the way at periods where were not expecting them does that matter this is actually very tough sledding for the fed the final mile and youre going all in, bullish . The thing is, were intermediate to longterm investors, as you know in effect, our goal is beyond. We feel comfortable with this 4900, whether its recognized by yearend specifically or into the First Quarter of next year that said, the market is usually late in the cycle of a hike cycle. The market usually gets it the fed is not trying to destroy the economy or the markets it did it in 1994. 94, tech dropped, i think, 20 in the First Quarter it was up 20 for the year by the end of that year go figure. In 95 the fed actually cut. That was a different story it was good for the markets as well as equity people we look a lot at the fed the leadership is important. The bernanke legacy, the advancements in technology that creates efficiencies for business and the consumer to navigate tough periods we think were coming out of the woods. Were making Good Progress and the light outside is not an oncoming locomotive with sunshine. We get two more inflation rates this month we get an unemployment report. Youre expecting things to be benign. We expect benign. If theyre not particularly benign, we expect the market would be able to digest it in fairly short order. What does that mean that means you can get a haircut, but it doesnt mean were looking for a correction at this point. As long as we continue to see the overall resilience were seeing among the Companies Reporting for the Second Quarter. We see the fed being remarkably to have done that skip, skip to my lou, what the heck was going on there. The dialogue going on in the fed is terrific. The communication. Of course, the market never believes the fed never has. Doesnt matter if it was greenspan or volcker powell does not have to be volcker because he did not have a predecessor who let inflation get embedded seven to eight years before volcker got the helm of the fed. The fed was behind the curve and they made Great Strides at correcting that error. We think its showing up in the economy, the markets, the consumer Small Business holding onto employees like they might not have in another cycle. John, great to speak with you. Thank you. Thank you lets turn to chips amd is getting ready to report its earnings after the bell. The stock is up 76 this year. Kristina partsinevelos has a look ahead to that report and how many times do we think theyre going to talk about a. I. If we use intel as a barometer, intel mentioned a. I. 58 times for amds q2 quarter were expecting lackluster results due to Weak Data Center sales and a slow Gaming Market lets take, for example, intel latest report shows continued inventory levels and the wallet share is moving to more expensive a. I. Chips and away from traditional servers those traditional servers, known as cpus contribute 26 of amds total revenue. Of course, there could be exposure thats much of the reason why weve seen amd stock pretty much flat over the last month compared to the over 5 uptick in the smh and the stocks etfs. Amd could differ from intel post earnings in two ways one, cpu market share went up in the First Quarter where as intel went down. Secondly, amd is set to launch its own a. I. In q4 it has orders from microsoft as well as amazon that a. I. Chip alone could be seen as a catalyst for more bullish estimates for amd if its launched on time. Theres some concerns about that that means amd investors will have to look past the nearterm weakness, and look towards that 2024 a. I. Dream for amd. Guys thanks. Kristina partsinevelos marriott with top and bottom line beats also raising q3 guidance the cfo will be with us next on the back of the results. Apple getting through price target hikes ahead of the Quarterly Report later in the week well break those down your record label is taking off. But so is your sound engineer. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. Indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. Visit indeed. Com hire were watching sofi after nearly 20 jump yesterday. Kbw cutting it to a sell saying valuation overprice. They raise it to 750 a share, a 30 drop from here they expect growth rates to moderate in 2024 its just to a value at this point. Lets get to marriott, the company beating estimates for the latest quarter we have a lot of trouble with cameras. Strong growth overseas the big story with revenue increasing 39 in International Markets the stock at an alltime high and up more than 35 for the year mgm hitting 52week high in yesterdays trading. Joining us is marriotts cfo nice to have you here. Nice. Great to be here and have you with us. Wouldnt think i would want to start on a. I. But i will technology has become a very important part of your business. Our understanding is youre transforming the way you engage with your customers in all sorts of facets. How are you doing that and how conceivably is that adding efficiency or increasing your margins over time . So, it is a really important part of how we think about working with our customers and our associates in particular were really doing an overhaul, if you will, of our reservations, property management, digital channels, everything that really is required in todays Digital Commerce world that will take several years and will really be a new way for us to be able to communicate. As you know, its important to communicate with your customer, not just during this day but before, during and after and really having Marriott Bonvoy do that through our channels is critical when i think about a. I. Is another component on top of that which were using and being thoughtful about it. At this stage we use it more in the back end for more research on marketing and things like that in our space at the end of the day its very much about the persontoperson contact with our guest. Certainly as it relates to doing Better Research and being able to do things quicker and faster and more accurately, were using it but were also were taking it one step at a time. Yeah. So its going to play out over time as is this whole Digital Transformation youre talking about. Give me an example of what its going to mean for the customer in terms of how they interact with marriott now versus a few years. One of the easiest ways to think about this is how you shop you probably are traditionally used to the classic of where would you like to go well, we want you to be able to shop any way you want to shop. I would like to find great places to bike i would like to find great places to snorkel. I would like to find great places that can handle my group. Its dramatically improving the way you research your travel and how you execute it you would like to know you would like to have that hamburger when you get there at 1 00 in the morning and you would like to be able to say that ahead of time rather than getting there and having to deal with it then. Its very much about communication and ease ease of use, which is, as we all know through the past number of years, everybody got smarter about using their smartphone. Sounds like a wonderful way to book a vacation i want to talk to you about Business Trends overall in the United States. Travel grew less than overseas is that the evolution of us coming out of the pandemic we traveled all over the United States and now its trying to find a place new if you think about coming out of the pandemic, the u. S. Really went first and if you think about where we were last year in the Second Quarter, the u. S. Saw these extraordinary growth rates in demand, particularly leisure first. Then were now seeing that business transient travel and group is definitely coming back. Group has come back with a bit of a roar. So, when you compare that to international, particularly asiapacific, which is really coming out the last, theyre now seeing what we saw a lot of back in the u. S. A year ago and seeing these tremendous increases. Crossborder travel in the Second Quarter really improved meaningfully a number of those u. S. Travelers who were taking their vacations in the u. S. A year ago in the Second Quarter had the opportunity to actually travel abroad now, interestingly, we still saw that Leisure Business in the u. S. Grew in the Second Quarter, but certainly, to your point, not the same as international. In terms of china coming out the last, what are we seeing there . Is it people from outside of china traveling in or the domestic consumer sparking that surge there . So, both. But were still right now its fundamentally overwhelming domestic you have air lift right now compared to prepandemic levels in and out of china at about 40 of where it was. So while we had an increase in Greater China of over 100 in the Second Quarter hugely different. But the First Quarter we actually saw the revenue per available room, kind of our version of same store sales, t so, it really is showing that is it really an expectation youll get back to those levels of intracountry or crossborder travel is now one percentage point away globally, 19 , was at 20 before the pandemic so, were getting close. In china, china was always about 76 domestic so, you know, theres still some crossborder that needs to come back, but theyve still got tons of demand in Greater China. Finally, back to our country, large corporates versus smaller and medium size businesses, what are you seeing in terms of the trends there there is still recovery happening, but to your point, it is meaningfully behind 2019 levels, in terms of nightshis y rate increases in the special corporate negotiated rate. We actually expect we will see continued growth in that next year on the nights itself, youre correct, its still lower. The small and medium size businesses have more than made up for that difference, so our overall business transient levels of revenues are actually higher than they were in 2019. Thank you for being here. Nice to see you both. Thank you very much. Byebye. Lets stick with travel. Another travel stock moving in the opposite direction norwegian cruise lines seema mody has that. Delivering a q2 beat but Third Quarter outlook came in below expectations seen as conservative when you compare it to direct competitor, royal caribbean, which posted a very Strong Quarter and revised full week outlook above wall street norwegian says Going Forward they expect occupancy to decline as they move to longer, seen as a way to double down on the higher end customer. Still analysts at stiefel are recommending clients to use todays weakness as a buying opportunity. According to booking commentary from the Company Progress made on costcutting and customer deposits, which are running at record levels also worth noting, while hotels and airfares are falling, Pricing Power remains strong saying on board generation is best realtime indication of how consumers are performing seema, thanks. The medical device maker beats. Can the stock turn things around after underperforming the market this year . Were keeping an eye on caterpillar. They predict there will be a jump in q3 sales year over year. The stock is opa fn ceor what would be best days since early june ah, these bills are crazy. She has no idea shes sitting on a goldmine. Well she doesnt know that if she owns a Life Insurance policy of 100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. Even a term policy. Even a term policy . Even a term policy find out if youre sitting on a goldmine. Call Coventry Direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect. Com. upbeat music constant contacts advanced automation lets you send the right message at the right time, every time. constant contact. Helping the small stand tall. Loans and highyield bonds, preferring private credit as the fed winds down its hiking cycle. Joining us at post 9, alexander wilson, deputy cio at Goldman Sachs wealth management. Great to have you with us. I like this line from the notes we got, normalization is not nirvana. Its not going to be smooth tap ahead even though were seeing lots of wall street strategists raise their price targets going into yearend. Youre saying caution here. Absolutely. I think the most important takeaway from us from the fed last week is this is going to be a long slug. When we look at how they talked about the market and how they talked about rates, yes, they were more dovish and they were very focused on patients and incoming data. For example, the data we saw this morning at the end of the day, they really honed in that disinflation narrative saying the biggest risk to us is actually not getting this right. We do think well be higher for longer and higher Interest Rates ultimately will continue to put pressure on corporates and the consumer. Right what is i mean, what level, in your view, is concerning . It seems like 4 , theres a reflexive action when we hit 4 , but we have been in 4 environments before. What is a concern to you in terms of levels . In terms of levels, 4 is actually attractive to us in the rate market. Thats why we started to extend down duration, although very thoughtfully and cautiously because were a little concerned about yield curve control and the boj infecting global duration were slowly stepping into that. If you are a believer that ultimately we will see recession, duration will provide an important balance to your portfolio. Private credit remains attractive why . When we look at the public loan market, 60 is private anyway you can actually move into private credit and get better terms and you have a lot less what we call lender violence meaning when you go through bankruptcy in the public market, everyones trying to say, i have a better pull of capital, but you dont have that in the private markets. Were seeing double digit returns that you can achieve, you can step in, be that provider in crisis, be that lender of liquidity that we saw earlier with the regional banking drama. We think thats attractive to the portfolio right now. What does your overall port foal low look like from an outright beta or market exposure, were actually pretty neutral we spend the better part of the first and Second Quarter buying into stocks. Huge portion of that thesis was that the market was so underinvested, just given where the strength of the consumer in gdp was. Thats a little less so now. So, were being thoughtful into jackson hole looking if you can buy protection on the portfolio. Theres more opportunity from our perspective across the globe, given valuations. Right now in the u. S. , youve got multiples in, you know, the 90th percentile. If you look at brazil or japan, youre seeing much better valuations were rotating the book to get international exposures. And your concern, if we have a recession, would be more weighted towards equity valuations as opposed to the credit risk on the credit portfolio . Its interesting. Weve seen such a dramatic shift within credit. Theres so much information and how resilient credit spreads have been. We started this year, no one would have sat around here and said, were about to crack 400 on highyield spreads. Whats happened is Corporate America extended out their book and they did it very low