Edition of fast money coming your way, all about the fed effect how taper talks and Possibility Rate hikes impact everything from your grocery bills to buying a house we break it all down starting at 6 00 p. M. Eastern. And we start this hour with all of those fed headlines that sent markets soaring. The S P and Nasdaq Closing at new records, jumping more than 200 points as Jerome Powell seemed to tamp down any expectations for raetz hikes lets get to Steve Leishman in Jackson Hole this year. Fed Chair Jay Powell said out right he expects the fed would start tapering later this year if the economy continues to improve. But he left himself flexibility but not offering a Specif Month or at the beginning of the taper. He said inflation, it iS Past the test to start tapering and employment on the way to a passing grade. The outlook for the Labor Market has brightened considerably in months after faltering last winter, job gains have increased over the course of the year and now average 832,000 over the past three months of which almost 800,000 have been in services. Powell said that the Delta Variant represented a risk but he still expects good Job Growth in the months ahead. Inflation will likely prove to be transittory and Rate Hikes require a higher standard than tapering do. Does but hebs of the federal market committee, they were pretty definitive, it is time for the fed to ease back on the throttle my view would be lets start the taper and lets do it quickly. Lets not have this linger you know, last time we did the taper, the economy was in a much weaker position than it is right now. And because of that, there was some uncertainty that the taper could trigger some further weakness in the economy. I just dont think were in that position now so a lot depends now on the coming August Jobs report. Well get that next friday and how much his committee, our Powells Committee insist it is time to go now a taper could be announced in september or november. But it is clear it is coming. Thank you, steve. And all of your hard work throughout the week, it is eye busy one for you we have an after hours were going to start trading what happened with the fed this week. Tim, what do you make of thes and what is a kind of pulling back of the asset purchases mean for the prospect of volatility in the market . So i want to be clear more fed or less accommodation or some tapering equals more volatility but as you saw this week and where we were from last week, volatility is up almost 40 . So the Market Heardpowell Toda look for every reason not even to be tapering, running at odds with six other fed president s that steve interviewed, it seems like a parade of regional fed president s that said lets hike taper, excuse me, not Hike But Taper but as soon aS Possible so powell went out there to also point out that, yeah, i think weve hit 2 inflation no kidding but is it sustainable. He keeps moving the goalpost i think and for the markets that is great news. And if you look at what outperformed this week, it wasnt necessarily stocks that were beneficiaries of a lot of liquidity so i would argue high multiple stocks and stocks that might benefit in a slower Growth Environment where the fed is more active. You saw not just energy, well talk about that but i think you that you industrials transports, banks as we saw yields move higher and the sense is the economy is recovering and the Delta Variant in the shortterm where the headlines are keeping the sectors back for the last six to eight weeks if the fed stays out of the way, big Payroll Number next friday, but i think the market has some more room to run. Jeff, do you agree with that . Especially if there is some kind of surprise between now and september that changes the direction of, you know, at thiS Point in time what seems like just a given that the fed will begin tapering this year i think that is the key and that is it a given steve said a tapering is coming. And the market knows that. And i dont think he said Anything Today that changes the Markets Mind relative to the timeline for any sort of monetary tightening. Clearly divorce tapering from Rate Hikes i think that is important. So whether tapering happens in november or december, youre not going to see Rate Hikes until the end of 2022 at the earliest. And what i think that means iS Probably a steeper Yield Curve and a market that is able to accept its fate which is tapering coming over the next couple of months and tim mentioned what led this week, i thought what led today waS Particularly interesting because i would have expected longterm rates to drift higher, the curve to steepen but the opposite happened. So you might have a different read on how the market was interpreting this. But one thing about the ten year treasury, there was a lot going on in the Options Market today, so i think the volatility in the ten year might not be the right read what you saw in the Equity Market is the right read value, marginally upd performing and banks and international outperforming. That is the read on how the market is interpreting what happened today with the fed. Steve, i see you nodding. Do you like Jeffs Assessment of the right read, the markets responding in the way that they should yeah, just to tim and jeffS Points, we had, as tim said, six fed officials come out being ube eck hawkish wellive as of late and you heard powell thread the Needl Needle on what he had to say and he showed flexibility, the ability to sort of thread the needle between what everyone thinks should be done and what will be done and i think the takeaway for the market as weve seen another 52, 52nd high for the market for the year, is that it is going to be accommodative. Were going to see easy money. The Punch Bowl is not getting removed. I think hes done an excellent job at communicating that taper does not equate to a Rate Hike and when you look at this, when you look at the tenyear, to jeffS Point he with had a high of one spot 74 and a lowof on spot 17 and the middle ground is one spot 45 so were still in this goldilocks environment as far as rates and what i mean by that is that value can perform, growth can perform, if we dip below 125, 126, in the tenyear, then you start to get a little bit of Nervousness And Anxiousness in the market and if you pop above 150, youre going to get the same type of event. So i think hes threaded the needle just to wrap it up, hes threaded the needle and i think Value And Growth can perform, if i were putting new money to work right now, i would put it in the Value Basket as the three gentleman who spoke before you it mentioned there is this divorce now in terms of sentiment with regard to tapering versus Rate Hikes. That is become ever more present this week as we hear more fed officials speak. In terms of trading, though, are you kind of readjusting your portfolio to account for what is going on with the pairing back or potential pairing back of asset purchases versus Rate Hikes further down the road . Yeah, well im always adjusting the portfolio. But it is not precipitated by the comments made today. I think they come on here and say, listen let me take a step back. Two things that stuck out to me. We talk about volatility and then steve allude to equilibrium. There is a Push Pull between Debtness And Hawkishness and we do have this underlying deltaen known that is in neither one or the other camp and i think powell is trying to say i would recognize that there are inflation pressures and i need to move in lockstep with that but there is a caveat that i want to allow myself to adjust if that is necessary the last thing about volatility, looking at the vix, were back down towards a low and the last thing that you want to do when tapering is have a repeat of previous history so to be very transparent and forthright in terms of how youre going to move, understanding that you are going to be im going to stop short of saying injecting volatility but removing a dampening market and it is important that we find eek willib re um between the two. And i think youve seen to steveS Point both Growth And Value could perform well and i would caution against jumping completely into one camp or the other. That is my key takeaway. Awesome thank yous we have an after Hours News Alert on shares of a firm. Rocketing higher on some Deal News lets get to Kate Rooney with all of the details , firm shares have been up as much as 40 after hours after a partnership with amazon. Amazon is getting into a booming buy now and pay later ecommerce they are partnering with a firm for the first ever installment payment options. Shares of the firm as i mentioned soaring after this announcement they had been up as much as 40 . Theyre up about 39 here after hours. A firms buy now and pay later will be available to certain Amazon Customers with a broader rollout in the coming months the partnership will let Amazon Customers split up purchases of 50 or more. Im told some of these will be Interest Bearing and others will have zero interest, it depends on the borrower. And there could be big for a firm the shares had gotten hit earlier in the week after peloton earnings they have concern about Revenue Concentration for the company. Peloton is a big partner for a firm amazon, though, the biggest retailer in the u. S. , E Marketerest mated they will account for more than 40 of Ecommerce Spending in the u. S. This year. The partnership on friday is the latest sign of a red hot Lending Space here younger consumers have moved toward the alternative lines of credit affirm is one of the better known options but we have square announcing the 29 billion deal to buy Fin Tack after pay to get into the Space And Paypal and american express, Citi And Apple is finally reportedly planning to launch installment lending in a partnership with goldman sachs back to you. It is a fascinating evolving area i think tim has a question for you. Tim . Well, i think the question is, theyve already struck a Pa Partnership with apple canada on Activity North of borard does this leave a place with we see these two companies fortunes, not amazon but a firm tied to amazon at thiS Point it is interesting, that is the case with peloton. Some of the partnerships have been a leading indicator for a firm stock you saw it sort of trading in sympathy with peloton. I think it does tend to trade long with whatever it iS Partnered with but amazon being such a big chunk of u. S. Ecommerce has investors up and they wont be able to partner with certain people because theyre with amazon and one of the things that we wore wondering is something that amazon could build their own buy now and pay later product and instead went with a partnership. Those are all good questions and the one about exclusivity will be key and in the next few days thank you, Kate Rooney steve grasso, what do you take on this . Well, it is obviously what you see in the price action, it is extremely bullish for a firm and a and the short interest is under 10 . But it begs the question how much was bezos involved in this, if at all, on this decision. How long was this decision in the making and to what kate just said, who decided to go this route versus do it your own. Why couldnt amazon do this on their own . They have a credit card, they have every other payment options. This seems like a nobrainer to do it on your own. So i think it is 100 bullish for a firm im still questioning why Amazon Wont just do this in house. So that is the only Head Scratcher for me not that that even means anything. Bono, what do you think. I think in terms of scope, it iS Positive for a firm it is after hours trading on a friday so youre going to be light there. The real question if i had a bone to pick to t would be about Profitability And Margin when you find yourself in business with amazon, they do have Pricing And Noegtsing power. So it is interesting to see what panth margins are going to be on that deal. Jeff, say this is exclusive with a Firm And Amazon what does that mean for the affirm competitors that kate laid out for or the credit cards and paypal, apple, what does that mean for those names . Well all of those companies now are trying to build out this sort of capability so it will be interesting to see the exclusivity of this deal and ultimately what that means for a firm and their ability to do more of the partnerships going forward because that might be where some of the upside is in the stock. When im hearing about this over and over again, we talked about it with square and after pay the one thing that comes to mind, the question has been raised before is what are the Credit Quality of underlying books look like and were in a good economy right now tons of excess savings and the consumer is in a great spot and the Labor Market is strong im not worried about that in the near term. But going down the line, when the economy eventually stumbles, what it does mean for the companies now trading at extremely high valuations. With the stock like affirm, it was up to 140. So even with the move after hours it is still way down 140 wasnt probably justified. The price where it is now is about right. I dont know if you werent in before this, how much near term upside there is. Some volatility you mentioned within trading on a friday so well keep an eye on it and coming up, were watching oil prices as a major storm causes shut downs in the gf. Ul how you should play it fast money is back in two. Why not both . Visibly diminish wrinkled skin in. Crepe corrector lotion. Only from gold bond. Im evies best camper badge. But even im not as memorable as eating Turkey Hill Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough creamy Premium Ice Cream and chasing fireflies. Dont worry about me. Im fine. You Cant Beat Turkey hill memories. Introducing xfinity rewards. Our very own way of thanking you just for being with us. Enjoy rewards like Movie Night specials. Xfinity mobile benefits. And exclusive experiences, like the chance to win tickets to see watch what happens live. Hey its me. The longer youve been with us. The more rewards you can get. Like sharpening your cooking skills with a top chef. Join for free on the Xfinity App and watch all the rewards float in. Our thanks. Your rewards. Welcome back to fast money. Were tracking the latest developments in the gulf the region under watch as Hurricane Ida makes landfall in cuba and is expected to strengthen as it heads toward the u. S. Ida could strike new orleans this sunday. Which is the 16th anniversary of hurricane katrina. Major oil firms slashing production in the gulf by 59 due to the storm crude oil higher today and up more than 10 this week. That is the best week since october. The move sending energy names higher as well shares of Devon Energy and blairo and royal Dutch And Shell and chevron surging today. So lets take a deep dive into energy ahead of this fast moving storm. St steve, what does this mean for refiners as we talk about that region in particular, what does it mean for them so, it depends on whether it is a category two or a category three. Category two, youre probably not going to see anything at all. So usually these type of events, weather related, are always a sell the News Type of situation. But the refiners that are in that area are Valero And Mpc and then an lyb. If it becomes a category three or stronger, you want to go with a holly front Ear Or Hhfc because that is out of the area and they could get back on line sooner if the other ones are pushed offline but i think just playing it as a whole, leslie, you want to look at crude crude is in a trading range. 75 down to 62. Then everything else kind of plays along with. It but playing the specific event retyners are the ones that should be played as far as a guessing bet and hopefully everyone stays safe so lets not lose sight of that as well. Our thoughts are with the people in those regions. Jeff, how are you looking at this is this something where you would maybe pursue an etf or the commodity itself or specific names . What are you looking at. I think there are a lot of ways to play it right now. And more or less the writing was on the wall for energy before all of this. So if you go back to last week, i think 80 of energy stocks traded to a three month low. So that sector was flush and it made sense to lean in regardless of what was gooding on weather wise i think the fundamentals are good and it has to do with the Delta Variant starting to perk up and vaccines being fully approved so more of the risk on sentiment coming back into the commodity and i think generally speaking the fundamentals are good you continue to have strong demand, supply has been limited and inventory has been bigger than expected. You could look at xle, xop and eog. Look at the charts they look so similar and all bullped up against the 200 day moving average so a decent time here to jump in and then the last thing ill say if you want exposure but insolated from the Commodity Look at a company like chanier they have 85 take or pay contracts with high quality customers. So i think you could look at a lot of different places to play this trade right now. Tim, what do you think . Is energy ready to break out of this range i think it is been a prove mE Trade and i think energy companies are still way underowned and relative to a Bench Mark not necessarily but in terms of beta and folks looking at alpha in a portfolio. You have to look at energy stocks different than the price of Brent Or Crude or whatever your following and while i thin the price of brent will move higher and you combine that with opec plus where there is more Coordination And Synthesis between this important price determining and not taking group. I do think they are determining the price right now. But more importantly a name like aog, eog who jeff just mentioned, this is a company generating free Cash Flow and pay buy back stock and the companies are running better than inform. Bono, what is your take well, the Sub Sector has been under owned and it makes sense that the undS Performer will have some lager and then catch up as to comes to this discrete situation in terms of Hurricane Ida, the term transitory is thrown about and this fits the bill for that. Looking into the Options Market where i take a lot of cues ive seeing a lean into the shorts once the tops have been washed out. So i have a bit of a contrarian view as it comes to this but panelists made a point about longterm or intermedium term investing. Our thoughts are with those in the gulf as the storm approaches their region. Up next, your final trades that building youre trying to buy, you should tenx it. Tenx is the worlds largest online commercial real estate exchange. And its fast. If i could, id tenx everything. Like our lunch. laughs amazing see it. Want it. Tenx it. It is final now for the final trade. Tim . Thanks for being here leslie. Eog, the story is cash return. Steve trin sayo, tse. Bono . Vix is starting to find a floor around 15 and i play volatility from the long side, vix. And last but not least, mills . Ill keep it in energy, Lng Stock is breaking out and i think it is going higher. Thank you Thatoes Dit for fast money. Options action is next had enough . No. Arthritis. Here. New aspercreme arthritis. Full prescriptionstrength . Reduces inflammation . Thank the gods. Dont thank them too soon. Kick pain in the aspercreme. Sales are down from last Quarter Dontbut we are hopingoon. Things will pick up by q3. Yeah. Uh. Doug . Sorry about that. Umm. What. Its. Um. You alright . [sigh] [ding] never settle with power E Trade. It haS Powerful, easytouse tools to help you find opportunities, 24 7 support when you need answerS Plus some of the lowest options and Futures Contract prices around. Dont get mad. Get E Trade and start trading today. Hey there, options actions fans, im Leslie Picker in for melissa lee. We have a big show on deck here is what is coming up. Announcer stocks soar to alltime highs but will rising risks derail the rally . If you think were in for a september selloff, Mike Khouw lays out a way to take some protection plus a tale of two charts in the cloud. Chart Master Carter worth sees the best and worst of times. For two big names reporting earnings next week an