Well be on and bridge you all of the bring you all of the big headlines. First the november to remember dow surging towards best month since january 1987 s p and nasdaq handing in best work since april energy up more than 25 percent financials up more than 17 percent. Small caps, best month ever. Bulls werent hiding, check this out, each of the past four monday he got big vaccine news before the market open and look at diminishing returns, the market fell despite moderna requesting emergency use of its vaccine. So weve been talking talking black or white or red and green in terms of diminishing returns. I took that economic class my freshman year and learned all about diminishing returns which is why i often invoke it here, i think so, absolutely tell you something, the vix is telling another story. I thought a day like today, monthend i thought the vix would close closer to 25 but here it is closing lower on the day, maybe its a function of that specific security, but ill tell you given what transpired the vix should be 25 that said, you know, i do think so much of this vaccine news baked in and should expect a bit of a pull back on the s p 500, melissa. Thats mean, tim, to the trade that led us here two new records, talking banks and energy, trade thats are dependent on an economy that reopens or at least finds some juice here. Theyre catching their breath, mel. I think you have a case here where on banks if you look at the xlf maybe not a pure read. Dan has talked about this too because theres a lot burk shire in there but look, xlf below precovid levels and banks will start unwinding the major reserves on the Balance Sheets the move you gave the numbers at the top of the show, not surprising to see a bit of a breath here. Quietly Inflation Expectations are going higher look at tips, i wont get deep on it but those are built in and theyve outperformed and theres sense of inflation out there, look at the price of copper and the dollar going lower, should tell you well be in importing some inflation and that should tell you all of the trades should work i think we have a case where retail drastically under performed for three years to a catchup play for the last year. Off the bottom has outperformed the s p by 50 percent after 20 percent down move after the lull of the crisis from the beginning of the crisis. I think those trade that you mentioned, bank small cap retail, these are trades that i think have more mean reversion to go. Can the mean reversion though happen continue to happen, karen, in a world in which there is no stimulus, in a world in which the Economic Outlook is so uncertainty even though we have this great vaccine news. We saw it in the market today and mention every monday, if you look at more recent mondays the Market Reaction is less and less which would imply its already baked in i think for the shortterm the vaccine news is baked in by got to tell you, this, blip, is really what i think of what happened today, it just shaves the tiniest bit off the november performance i always look for things to buy. So a day like today provided actually zero opportunities of things for me to buy because they just, i mean, just a tiny bit of froth came off. So i think also theres the expect or the hope that the Biden Administration will be able to get some sort of stimulus through so i think the stimulus as one of the sort of platforms of a continual rally is still there i dont know how big, we dont know whats going to happen in the senate so that is up in the air but i dont think a stimulus is dead we talked about santa claus rally couple weeks ago, a lot of santas here already just trying to beat the rush, i guess. So now i think sort of sideways for a while. Yeah, what could go wrong, dan, implying the quite you sent out, all of the positive in the market how many components above the 200 day moving average, et cetera, what could go wrong at this point thats it, it feels like santa con in the majority, if youre a new yorker and an early saturday in december you know santa con is a freaking mess that being said, i just think theres a lot bake in right here i think that we keep talking about this vaccine, yeah, this is the fourth or fifth monday in a row we came in with good news. Listen, the vaccine might prove to be the biggest challenge for the reopening of the economy in 2021, when you think about warp speed amazing, amazing endeavor here we have, at least a couple vaccine thats should work against this virus but distributing it, not just here in the u. S. But the world over and then kind of overcoming some of the trust issues about it but most importantly the logistics issues about it, inokay lating hundreds and millions of people in a short period of time. Im not so confident thats going to happen the way we expect in the first three to five months next year. We might see continued push outs of the reopening trade when the economy gets back to prepandemic levels. Last point, mel, the point you made about stimulus, does it look much smaller than the deal that was on the table in september and october that we couldnt get an agreement on we were at one point 8 trillion at 2. 2 trillion and now talking about something much less than trillion that may not be enough to keep the market here where it is i think its anticipating a lot of good news until the next six to twelve months not just inokay u lating people in general they have to go for two dos and might have some side effect so uncertainty around the vaccine and the stimulus, how about uncertainty around the economy, we heard from fed chair powell, lets go to steve with the latest melissa, thanks, dispute between the fed and treasury showing up in testimony to be delivered tomorrow by treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin and jay powell they say the fed will return the unused money to the treasury but notes demand for main stream loans being closed by the treasury secretary may increase with the spread of the pandemic, unlocked 2 trillion of funding to state and local governments and nonprofit, how the economy continue to recover from the depressed Second Quarter levels but the pace of improvement have moderated and economic outcome is uncertainly and for the most part americans are getting back to work and our job is not complete, his job of course, until every american is back to work, and he notes half of the workers have come back who lost their jobs in the pandemic he sharply criticizes shutdowns say they continue to impair remarkable progress and quote cause grit harm to american businesses and workers and urging congress to use the 450 billion unused funds in the care act and say the the administration will support a targeted fiscal package that passes well listen tomorrow from senators to see if there is any hint of progress on stimulus and if theres support to end the emergency programs. Today some High Frequency data suggest theres could be negative print on the jobs number on friday, some of the highfrequen highfrequency data supporting that, that could be a game changer on the progress on stimulus. That will be a wake up call if we do have a negative print. Yeah, i think if you sort of listen to the tenor of the debate, when the jobs numbers have come in more strongly than expected, which they have, its kind of caused the urgency of the need for stimulus to recede. Along, by the way, with the market, the way the market has been reacting, it doesnt seem to negatively assess the lack of stimulus. I would submit the its the Market Reaction to negative print on friday could be the wake up call for zbrcongress. Then you would get a double potentially. Steve liesman, thank you. Tim seymour this disagreement will seem quaint is yellen is confirmed. Are the marketing seeking skinny or targeted stimulus between now and when congress leaves in just a couple weeks time . Tough look, this is the detail on the big picture and themes here. We know that janet yell enhance largely been a markets positive dynamic, we know from her role at the fed and listening to powell today talking about all of the tools in the tool box, all of that, this was the yellen fed, the bernanke fed and treasury that wants to stay close to that action i think theres dynamics here for the market ultimately normalization in terms of the economy is bad news for the market i dont think that were close to the normalized economy but when we Start Talking about normalized earnings and start pulling forward in couple of these sectors where maybe we come out of this faster, thats the time to sell those sectors, i dont think were there yet. The dynamic of how much fiscal is coming down the pike is what the markets will weigh. If you look back to 2016 we didnt have covid but we had a president ial election and a seasonal rally. Most of the trump rally for at least the boost that came out of election and then into the Holiday Season was done by the end of november and you essentially were flat for 34u67 of much of december. If you look at the bull bear measure wheres we have extreme optimism were stretched, how could we not be stretched so i think the feds not going anywhere any time soon bad news good news but more important direction for the market right now is lopping off a little bit of this froth and then were going higher. Guy, do you think its a replay of what happened in the last election as tim is say sng. The set up to me is completely different but i understand the dynamics behind it i want to add another wild card without going down political bend when candidate trump would then be President Trump to talk about how the market would be a report card for his administration. By any stretch using that metrics its been a wonderful administration by you know, if he concedes, i havent figure out if theres a concession out there, one thing, its one thing to lose an election to ego, another thing to watch the market go higher on the back of that not unlike a ceo getting fired and watch his or her stock go up 8 percent in the aftermath its a tough pill to swallow im wondering if that press conference he did when he trumped at the 30,000 level one wed never seen again, in his head is that would be great way to go out with the market at an alltime high. I wonder what voice well hear to derail this thing going back to wilbr rosss congress in moth balls coming out saying the deficit is out of nowhere. If you go down that rant rabbit hole congress is in session almost until the day Electoral College votes and fresno sta President Trump said he will abide by what they vote and maybe he will push for the stimulus bill to go out on a high note. He hasnt been contemplating his legacy, in his mind hes not out of the game and the point about december 14th is important. I will tell you this, hes going to bet first u. S. President who is during his term in 30 or 40 years or longer that actually had a net job loss. If you are thinking about your legacy you may want to try to push through some form of fiscal stimulus that would help the people its not like his tax cuts in 2017 that went to the donor class and large cooperations this would be going to unemployed sit citizens and small businesses, that sort of thing. That might be something to take the tarnish off this period since the election so to me, im hoping for it, i wouldnt hold my breath though. Our next guest warns december chill may hit the markets, chief equi equity, always nice talking to you. How chilly frost bite unseasonably cold . Unseasonably cold sound s about right. Basically from our point of view, what november says about the nearterm is very incontrovertible cluesive. Incontrovertible cluesiv in we are seeing that there are very strong inflows into equities and fund flow can fund a lot of flows fleer near or long term for us the near term is in tact particularly you dont want to be in bonds because the feds not going to allow negative rates the rational or equity is there. We have a lot to overcome. 2021 earnings we are reasonably fully priced and not ready for negative surprises. What valuations would you buy in the markets for investor thats cant play it too cute. Unless were talking about a decent size pull back youre not going to get out and back in. Right and were not saying you should do that if you feel uncomfortable this is a time that perhaps looking out three months you might want to own some down side foot protection the volumeality volatility index is very attractive for hedging. In general we say otherwise sit tight. In the last two and half years its been massive roller coast aern coaster and the best strategy is to sit tight same in 2021, you have to get emotionally through what could potentially be the down part of the roller coaster thanks for being on as a counter weight to money coming into the majority, do you think theres into the market, do you think theres thought of strategy of selling big gains in this calendar year to get in front any tax changes that the Biden Administration could implement. Actually weve started to see it a little bit, what people have called the growth to value rotation you know, we dont necessarily think that even if the democrats were to take both of those georgia seats that you would really have enough of an impetus to get past that kind of major tax legislation. So whereas that might have been a consideration sort of in october coming into the election when you started to see the winners begin to under perform the lagers, obviously we dont think thats rationale to trend specifically those names, same time, theyre not necessarily attractive enough at these valuations where we want to be aggressive about adding. Julian, i have to ask you about bitcoin, you said recently, bitcoin to 50 k is reasonable right target for year end 2021 i wonder if thats the case, and you mentioned, you know, sort of the diminishing value of the dollar, et cetera, thats kind of force, does it have a place in investors portfolio instead of cash . Well, its its its not necessarily instead of cash, it is instead of the 40 percent that would be a traditional 60 40 bond allocation. Again, going back to what we discussed earlier, if the fed is not going to permit negative rates, and were seeing signs of inflation, its reasonable to expect that you could have, you know, perhaps losses in bond portfolios in the foreseeable future and then when you combine that with the fact that youve got this entire cohort of young investors, the same ones that were really aggressively pushing technology stocks, you know, this summer who have 40year investing horizons and alternative to bonds is very, very sensible and from our point of view while fed continues to add to its Balance Sheet and u. S. Debt continues to go higher bitcoin is a viable alternative. To extrapol late that should Companies Hold bitcoin on their Balance Sheets . Its certainly an alternative and weve seen several of them come to that conclusion. One of the facts of life is that you really havent been rewarded and perhaps rightly so in a zerointerest rate environment for cash i dont know that i want to go quite that far again, thats an individual, you know, corporate managements perspective but in a diverse tied investment portfolio we do think theres a place for it. Julian great to speak with you, thank you very much. Thank you. Julian emmanuel btig we have a story on cnbc. Com pro sign up sand check it out. Guy, i asked julian about Companies Holding bitcoin on their Balance Sheet because when you were off on hump day ahead of gobble gobble day last week we spoke to the ceo of micro strategy who took 75 percent of the cash on the Balance Sheet and put it in bitcoin. Guess what rose today with bitcoin to record it highs micro strategy so its a bitcoin proxy. From investment standpoint the question is is this what you want a company to do no. I dont believe so that to me is a bridge too far as they say. Its great the micro strategy shareholders are thrilled today but if bitcoin is 12,512,500twok from now are they going to be happy with the volatility. I dont know maybe im wrong. Im sure bk has a different view but i would be a little concern ed they were putting theeggs i the bitcoin basket this early, the infancy in the nascent state of bitcoin and cryptocurrency specifically so that would concern me im glad i miss hump day gobble gobble day, you know how i feel about it. You love it, you heart it coming up, zoom shares plummet in latest company call well break it down. And nikola share falling hard after gm pulls the plug on vestment plans its down to the wire, the teams been working around the clock. Weve had to rethink our whole approach. Were going to give togetherness. Logistically, its been a nightmare. Im not sure its going to work. Itll work. I didnt know you were listening. Welcome back to fast money. Your kids do it. Your bosses do it. Your parents are even doing it talking about zoom we have an earnings alert on that stock debo with the numbers. Youre right, everyones doing it but as one of our colleagues put it, its investors are a tough crowd. Zoom does almost everything right and then some. Better than expected guidance. Third straight quarter of triple digit Revenue Growth doubled its most lucrative customers but investors come to expect big things and the quarter may not have been enough weighing on zoom shares in the last few months what happens when the economy reopen and people are not on zoom all day also Third Quarter 367 percent blow out, going to expect next years growth very difficult to compare. Shares are down in the after hour but still up nearly 600 percent yeartodate this is very much the workfromhome darling key question Going Forward is whether it could ultimate wly be more than videoconferencing platform and evolve into core Human Interaction platform to justify its now skyhigh valuation. Their call kicks off in about five minutes from now. All right, thank you. By the way well hear from zoom ceo tomorrow on squasquawk bo the average price on the street is 480 close to where the stock closed the session today dan . Yeah, i think theres very few things that you can kind of look at and that say its disappointing. The stock only down five percent tells you that investors want to be positive even up 600 percent on the year. I think debo made the point that, period over period were going to see diesel ratio and year comps impossible yearoveryear 135 billion market cap you say how does this